DFS Alerts
Braves Lefties an Interesting Contrarian Play vs Gant
It is no secret that loading up on the game at Wrigley Field is the optimal strategy for cash games today. That said, if you’re looking to differentiate from all of the Cubs/Twins stacks (or the Rangers stacks on DK), consider Braves lefties against the Cardinals’ John Gant. Gant has shown extreme splits thus far this season, pretty well shutting down righties but allowing a wOBA of .347 to LHH. Things could get ugly quickly for Gant against a lefty-heavy Braves lineup, in one of the many games with 100+ degree temperatures and winds blowing out. The heavy ownership of Cubs, Twins, Brewers, etc will keep their ownership levels to a minimum, making these left handed Braves bats an interesting contrarian play on today’s slate.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies
Arlington
Arlington is the next place to look in cash games after Wrigley. The only problem is that the CWS/TEX game isn’t included in FanDuel’s slate so you can only get exposure to the Rangers 5.7 implied run total on DK/FDRAFT. Andrus doesn’t have a lot of shine to him but he does have an exploitable price tag at a weak position. As long as he continues to find himself in a favorable lineup spot for run production (he’s been batting second) he should be able to return value on his sub-$4K price tag.
Deceiving ERA
I typically try to switch up these blurbs a bit as it’s no fun to read “play players from this exact same game” over and over but I do think it should be emphasized: play a bunch of Wrigley guys in cash. Grossman has an average offensive skill-set against lefty pitching (105 wRC+; .118 ISO) but is one of the cheaper bats you’ll be able to roster from this game and typically draws a good spot in the order (sometimes leads off, sometimes hits 5th/6th). People may avoid rostering Twins hitters against Lester due to his 2.18 ERA but his advanced metrics tell a much different story. Lester is the owner of a 4.51 SIERA and some crazy lucky peripherals (.234 BABIP, 86.2% strand rate). In other words, don’t avoid Twins hitters in this environment due Lester’s deceivingly low ERA.
Cheap SP2
Matz draws the best matchup of the cheap SP2 options as he’ll pitch against an anemic Marlins offense in Miami (22.1 K%, 77 wRC+). Matz has posted DK totals north of 14 points in four of his last five starts, which is good consistency for someone in his price range. He’s a largely average pitcher (4.18 SIERA; 21.4 K%) but has shown a strikeout per inning potential in a good matchup and has plenty of room to return positive value on his cheap price tag.
Taking Advantage of Favorable Conditions
My favorite point per dollar plays for cash games on this Cubs team are Ben Zobrist and Anthony Rizzo. They should both be hitting at the top of the lineup and match up very well against Lynn. I have tagged Zobrist as my core play in LineupHQ largely thanks to his likely leadoff role and reasonable price tag, but both him and Rizzo will find their way into many of my lineups thanks to the favorable weather. This entire lineup is in play today given the weather at Wrigley Field.
Smoak-ing His Way to a Hot Streak
Grabbing a ton of exposure to the 2018 version of the Blue Jays is never a fun feeling, but I never mind firing up some bats against Jordan Zimmermann. The Detroit starter owns a surprisingly solid profile this season, but he has benefited from a sub-10% HR/FB rate and relatively low opposing BABIP. Regression is coming in the second half, as his ground ball rate sits at under 30% to hitters from both sides of the plate. He’s going to start allowing more home runs, and the Blue Jays are a fine spot to find some one-offs or for a sneaky GPP stack today. Justin Smoak is my favorite play of the bunch and would be my top cash game option. Smoak is starting to find his swing with home runs in back-to-back games, and his price tag remains very reasonable.
A Great Combination of Splits
Matt Harvey, we meet again. Though he hasn’t been as much of a disaster with the Reds as I expected, he’s still not a quality major league arm. The splits remain rough against left-handed hitters, who have posted a 44% hard contact rate and .371 wOBA against him this season, a trend that dates back for quite some time now. Enter Travis Shaw, who is perhaps my favorite hitter on this slate. While he doesn’t have the best batting average against RHP this year, a lot of that is attributable to bad luck, as he still owns a rock solid .379 wOBA and .287 ISO against righties this year. This is a perfect “get right” spot for the Milwaukee third baseman.
A Fine Secondary Pitching Option
In terms of skill set, Gausman has the best profile of everyone who you can consider a “value” pitching choice today. He has been victimized by a high BABIP this season, which has caused his ERA to be sitting at a much higher mark than his advanced metrics would suggest. His strikeout and walk rates are very respectable, and the upside is there. The matchup is the biggest question mark, as the Angels are capable of putting plenty of runs on the board, and Gausman has actually pitched to reverse splits this season. That doesn’t bode well against a RH-heavy Angels lineup and is likely enough to keep him out of must play territory in cash games. However, I do like the appeal here, especially in tournaments, but he is still my preferred SP #2 choice on the multi pitcher sites.
The Matchup Makes Him the Top Pitcher
This will be a fun matchup between Morton and Blake Snell today. Snell has all the talent in the world, but the matchup dictates that Morton is the safe pick as your top pitcher of the day. He rebounded from a few poor outings with a rock solid performance his last time out against the Blue Jays, and I am no longer concerned about his current form. A matchup against the Rays is certainly a favorable one, and Morton has the best combination of safety and upside of any pitcher on the slate with his 31% strikeout rate and rock solid overall profile. I won’t argue with you for siding with Snell, especially in tournaments, but assuming the profiles are identical, it’s foolish to recommend a pitcher against the Astros over a similar pitcher against the Rays. That’s where I stand on this.
Slight Discount
Happ and Morton headline the SP options in terms of raw projection but Happ comes out as my favorite due to the savings he offers across the industry. Salary is important on Sunday as you look to fit in as many Wrigley hitters as possible and Happ offers a significant discount on DraftKings and a moderate discount on FanDuel. Happ has been strong this year as the owner of a 3.43 SIERA and 27% strikeout rate. The Tigers are a more annoying matchup against LHP than you would originally think (19 K%; 111 wRC+) but I still default to Happ over Morton despite the slightly tougher matchup.
Offensive Explosion
Sunday’s main slate cash approach for hitters is once again straightforward – jam in as much Wrigley as possible. We have missed the first two games of the MIN/CHC series on the main slate in which the two teams combined for 39 runs. That same offensive explosion is expected on Sunday with temps in the 90’s and strong winds blowing out. Rizzo is one of the Cubs top lefties who will look to exploit Lance Lynn’s massive platoon splits.
A cheap Leadoff Batt
We can basically disregard Calhouns stats from early on in the season because there was clearly broken, but since he’s come back he’s preformed well and is still priced way too cheap because of his early season struggles. In his last 11 game he has 5 games of over 8 DK points and one game of 25 DK points. He should be batting leadoff in a hitters ballpark in hot and humid weather. This is a great spot for him even against a good pitcher which is mostly negated since Calhoun has the platoon split. Play him inf you need to save some money.
Cheap Exposure to a High Total Game
Baltimore has one of the highest implied team totals on the board today and one of their best hitters is way too cheap. On the year vs. RHP, Jones owns a .189 ISO and .331 wOBA. He draws a matchup against a pitcher that’s been terrible in his limited experience (.550 wOBA and .607 ISO vs. righties) and judging from his minor league stats he isn’t expected to be much better. Jones grades out as one of the top PT/$ hitters on the entire slate and works perfectly in a stack.
Don't Be Afraid of This Lefty Lefty Matchup
Let’s just get this out of the way. Justin Bour does not hit lefty well normally, but Matz is not your normal lefty. On the year, he appears to be a pretty big reverse splits pitcher. This is his stat line vs. lefties on the year (.367 wOBA, 18.9% K rate, 15.2% BB rate, 47.1% Hard hit). These are terrible numbers and Bour is one of the better hitters in the league. He is priced dirt cheap at 3.4k on DK and should come in at low ownership here on this slate. I’m calling out a double dong here even in a tough ballpark.
Don't let the Vegas Line Fool Ya
Don’t let the high implied team total of the Angels fool ya, there is some huge upside with Gausman. On the year he has solid numbers (3.93 xFIP, 21.7% K%, 6.2% BB%) and he has some upside considering BAL is willing to let him pitch over 100 pitches in most games where he’s doing well. He draws a matchup against a tough LAA team that just seems to do everything decently. There is some K upside in Calhoun, Upton, and Valbuena and with the Vegas implied team total so high I expect the ownership to be low on Gausman. If he can keep the ball in the park he has a chance at a huge game here.