DFS Alerts
A Guy in a Perfect Matchup
The two things I generally look for when I’m trying to figure out if Davidson is a good matchup is if the pitcher strikes out a lot of guys and if he gives up hard contact. Looking at how Colon does in that area, is enough to have me max out my credit cards just betting on Davidson. On the year, Colon has a 43.5% hard hit rate and a tiny 14.9% K rate. Davidson owns a .197 ISO and .533 CXwOBA on the year which grades out perfectly versus Colon. Add in that its hot and humid over in Texas and you’ve got a great spot for a HR here.
Cash Game Lock
Despite pitching against the most powerful offense in the Majors in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium Sale is the clear top pitching option for Saturday’s main slate. Sale has been remarkable this season with a 2.52 SIERA, 35.6 K%, 15.6 SwStr% and 26.1 Hard%. It turns out that it’s tough to hit HRs when you can’t actually make contact with the ball. Sale’s ceiling is unrivaled on a night with limited pitching options and he’s a cash game lock.
Still Too Cheap
Avisail Garcia was a popular value option yesterday hitting at the top of the order against a weak Rangers pitcher, and gets the exact same recipe for success tonight against Bartolo Colon. Garcia has a hit in all 7 games he has played since returning from the DL, including multi-hit games in his last two. The price simply hasn’t caught up yet, and there is no reason to not continue to ride the hot hand. Colon has allowed a .383 wOBA to RHH, and has the lowest K% on the slate at a mere 14.1%. The White Sox make a lot of sense as an offense to stack tonight at the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park, and Garcia is a great one-off value play as well.
Trust King Felix vs a Struggling Offense
Rostering Felix Hernandez has rarely felt like a safe option this season, but tonight he provides a solid floor in a matchup against the scuffling Royals. In their last 9 games the Royals have only managed 19 runs, which helps explain why tonight they sit at one of the lowest Vegas-implied team totals on the board. The Mariners are also the largest team-favorite on the board with their offense expected to score and score often against a struggling Jason Hammel, which means Felix is likely to come away with the win as well. It is worth noting that his upside may be a bit capped due to the Royals’ having the second lowest team K% on the slate at only 19.1%, but on two SP sites Felix is a safe option to pair with Sale that has a high-floor and still allows you to fit some solid bats.
Upside for Seattle bats increased at home against HR prone pitcher
A 4.67 implied run line is fairly high for the Mariners at home. Ian Kennedy is capable of giving up home runs in power suppressing environments and though Safeco is a more negative run environment overall, it plays almost neutrally towards power. This is a spot where Nelson Cruz (150 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mitch Haniger (130 wRC+, .228 ISO) should be emphasized over the speedsters, even as one offs, against a pitcher who doesn’t have much of a platoon split and allows hard air contact to batters from either side of the plate (RHBs .338 wOBA, .359 xwOBA, 37.2 Hard%, 36.9 GB% vs Kennedy since last season).
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, Ian Kennedy
Just Too Good
The deeper we go in the day, the more I just can’t stop getting Matt Carpenter into my lineups. This is really an either/or with Mike Trout, I’m not suggesting you try and fit ace pitcher, Trout and Carpenter in your lineups. But, with Bauer/Cole, I’m finding myself needing to go somewhere cheaper than Trout for my top bat, and that leads me to Carpenter with his dual position eligibility on DK. Julio Teheran just can’t figure it out against lefties, at an 18.1% strikeout rate with 43% fly balls and a 42% hard hit rate leading to 1.63 HR/9 to lefties this season after 1.51 HR/9 in 2017. Carp carries an extreme 51% hard hit rate with 48% fly balls and a .251 ISO against righties.
No weather concerns tonight, but a lot of heat
There are no weather concerns on Friday night’s slate, but Kevin writes about some spots where the ball could fly tonight. Read the forecast on the Weather page and Kevin will be giving further updates to premium subscribers on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Great standalone spot for a huge first base bat tonight
The Diamondbacks have just a 3.83 implied run lines and they’re down to just one bat who really hammers LHP tonight, but Paul Goldschmidt (188 wRC+, .403 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) should at least be a high stand alone priority against a pitcher who has struggled more than his peripherals would indicate. Andrew Suarez has estimators nearly a run below his 4.43 ERA, but his 23 K% is not supported by a 7.3 SwStr% and his 89.2 mph aEV may be masked in a great home park, which he’s not pitching in tonight. The humidor has had some effect in Arizona, but it’s still not San Francisco and Suarez has struggled greatly against RHBs (.368 wOBA, 50 Hard%). This is a great spot for at least Goldy and possibly Nick Ahmed (134 wRC+, .259 ISO), though his xwOBA is 37 points lower than his actual against LHP over the last calendar year, and Ketel Marte (111 wRC+, .187 ISO) as an affordable middle infield option.
Other tagged players: Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed, Andrew Suarez Cheap leadoff bat with some pop for one of the top implied run lines tonight
The Toronto Blue Jays will stack nine right-handed bats against old teammate Francisco Liriano, who has allowed a .357 wOBA to batters from that side singe last season. By xwOBA, it’s even worse (.382) and that’s enough to give the Blue Jays the third highest implied run line on the board (5.24). Randal Grichuk (73 wRC+, .202 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is a cheap leadoff bat with some pop. Teoscar Hernandez (116 wRC+, .296 ISO), Kendrys Morales (137 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Justin Smoak (130 wRC+, .174 ISO) have hit southpaws well behind him. Since Liriano’s issues generally include walks, this is a spot where stacking may provide optimal outcomes.
Other tagged players: Teoscar Hernandez, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, Francisco Liriano It takes a poor pitcher and extremely positive run environment to push the White Sox towards five implied runs
It takes an extremely positive run environment and Yovani Gallardo to approach five implied runs for the White Sox (4.88). In two starts, Gallardo has allowed nine runs over 9.1 innings with three HRs, five walks and seven strikeouts. Since last season, batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .350 and .370 against him and he’s not even generating ground balls at an above average rate any longer. There’s some value in this White Sox lineup in this spot. Yoan Moncada (117 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jose Abreu (131 wRC+, .242 ISO) are the top bats with Avisail Garcia (110 wRC+, .150 ISO) and Daniel Palka (89 wRC+, .203 ISO) are the cheaper ones. Players looking for a catching punt can consider Kevan Smith (103 wRC+, .086 ISO), batting fifth.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Daniel Palka, Yovani Gallardo, Kevan Smith Dylan Covey left his last start with a hip injury, has walked nine of his last 44 batters
The Texas Rangers top the board with 5.62 implied runs at home against Dylan Covey, the only extremely positive run environment on the board. A few weeks ago, this could have been a fade, but Covey has allowed nine runs (eight earned) over his last nine innings with two HRs, nine walks and just three strikeouts (44 BF) and has been dealing with a hip issue, though not missing any time. Covey’s major league numbers last year were terrible and still have batters from either side of the plate above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, despite generating more than 50% of his contact on the ground against either side. A Texas stack or two for mutli-lineup players would seem the safe thing considering Covey may not be 100% and seems unable to consistently throw strikes right now. Shin-soo Choo (120 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Elvis Andrus (104 wRC+, .165 ISO) and Adrian Beltre (114 wRC+, .169 ISO) are three strong top half of the lineup bats with only Choo costing much above $4K on DraftKings. Nomar Mazara (108 wRC+, .182 ISO) costs just $3.3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Dylan Covey Julio Teheran has dominated and been crushed in two starts back from the DL, but always struggles with LHBs
Julio Teheran returned from a two week layoff to strike out 11 Padres in six no-hit innings and then followed it up by getting blasted for seven runs in less than five innings by the Orioles. We don’t know who he is right now or even if he’s healthy and an 11.4 BB% with exactly three walks in seven straight starts suggests he might not be. Even at best, Teheran has always struggled with LHBs (.340 wOBA, .361 xwOBA, 37.1 Hard%, 38.6 GB% since last year). He does get a positive park shift in St Louis tonight, but the weather in St Louis is supposed to be miserably hot tonight, which is a boost to bats. Matt Carpenter (139 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a 324 wRC+ over the last week and is one of the premium bats on the board. Players can help offset his skyrocketing cost with Greg Garcia (113 wRC+, .084 ISO) in the two spot for $3K or less. Kolten Wong (97 wRC+, .144 ISO) could also make it an all punt middle infield if paying up for pitching and has a 175 wRC+ (40 Hard%) over the last week himself. There is an interesting BvP nugget in this game too. Marcell Ozuna (127 wRC+, .193 ISO) has faced Teheran 42 times with five extra-base hits (three HRs) and a .458 wOBA. At 4.62 implied runs, the Cardinals are upper-middle of the board.
Other tagged players: Julio Teheran, Marcell Ozuna, Kolten Wong, Greg Garcia High powered Milwaukee bats in a power boosting environment in Cincinnati
The Brewers will take their swings at Sal Romano’s 16.5 K%, 4.86 SIERA, 5.09 FIP and .360 xwOBA in the power boosting confines of the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati tonight. Oddly, RHBs have 14 of the 23 HRs he’s allowed in his career, but 14 of those 23 HRs have also come at home, split evenly between righties and lefties. Overall, LHBs have a .355 wOBA and 38.5 Hard% that’s much better than his .329 wOBA and 52 GB% against RHBs. Chrisitan Yelich is out of the lineup after leaving last night with an injury, but Brad Miller (101 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and his 201 wRC+ (57.1 Hard%) over the last week jumps to the leadoff spot for just $3.6K on DK/$2.5K on FD. Eric Thames (134 wRC+, .292 ISO), Jesus Aguilar (132 wRC+, .288 ISO) and Travis Shaw (125 wRC+, .253 ISO) are all high upside bats here as well. The Brewers are currently the number five team on the board with 4.93 implied runs.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Jesus Aguilar, Brad Miller, Sal Romano Kole Calhoun moves to leadoff in a high upside spot in Baltimore
Kole Calhoun finds himself in the leadoff spot for the Angels in Baltimore, where Vegas has set the line at 5.37 runs, second best on the board, against David Hess. Calhoun hasn’t been much against RHP over the last calendar year (75 wRC+, .138 ISO), but does at least have a 110 wRC+ and 53.9 Hard% over the last week, along with a low price tag in front of Mike Trout (184 wRC+, .308 ISO) and Justin Upton (123 wRC+, .228 ISO). Andrelton Simmons (113 wRC+, .141 ISO) and Luis Valbuena (98 wRC+, .240 ISO) are the only other league average bats against RHP.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons, Luis Valbuena, David Hess A young pitcher with a small sample reverse platoon split could be for a great spot for on Phillies' bat
Erick Fedde is a prospect of some note, who has some upside, but has struggled a bit through his first seven major league starts both last year and this. Though he’s kept the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time against batters from either side, it’s right-handed hitters that have really handled him well. They have a .467 wOBA against him and while xwOBA is 56 points less, that’s still .411 with a 38.3 Hard%. It’s not a large sample size for sure, but this would seem an ideal spot for Rhys Hoskins (142 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in his cozy home park. Fedde hasn’t been great against LHBs either in his short career (.344 wOBA, .334 xwOBA), but does have a 60.3 GB% against them.
Other tagged players: Erick Fedde