DFS Alerts
Tanner Roark has cratered (six HRs last 20.1 innings)
Tanner Roark has gone from a normally high floor arm to a train wreck. He’s allowed 10 runs over his last two starts, just 8.1 innings, has just a 16 K% over the last month with a .368 xwOBA and has allowed six HRs over his last 20.1 innings. Since last season, LHBs now have a .351 wOBA against him (.342 xwOBA) with just a 41 GB%. Odubel Herrera (127 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) now costs $5.4K on DraftKings, but is much less, though still the most expensive bat in the lineup on FanDuel ($3.7K). Carlos Santana (130 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Cesar Hernandez (117 wRC+, .130 ISO) are just a bit less expensive. Rhys Hoskins (142 wRC+, .281 ISO) is your right side consideration.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Tanner Roark
Middle of a hot Cincinnati order could get to Junior Guerra tonight
Junior Guerra has a estimators more than a run above his 2.82 SIERA due mostly to an 83.3% strand rate. While his BABIP is .259, the Brewers have a team .267 allowed. While he has a .330 xwOBA and 9.8 HR/FB with just 6.3% Barrels/BBE, his 42.8% 95+ mph EV is the second worst mark on the board. There is some room for a surging Cincinnati offense (127 wRC+, 4.3 K-BB% last seven days) to do some damage. By either wOBA or xwOBA, Guerra has virtually no platoon split since last season, though the latter is exactly 28 points higher than the actual in either case. The Reds have four above average bats against RHP over the last calendar year, three with power, and all four lineup nicely in the middle of the lineup: Joey Votto (179 wRC+, .216 ISO), Scooter Gennett (134 wRC+, .217 ISO), Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+, .220 ISO), Jesse Winker (138 wRC+, .167 ISO). All four have at least a 130 wRC+ over the last week as well.
Other tagged players: Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Junior Guerra Daily Bullpen Alert: Lack of struggling bullpens on a small slate
Jaime Barria averages five innings per start and by FIP, the Angels have the worst bullpen on the board tonight (5.21) over the last month, though their 13.4 K-BB% is perfectly league average. This information is probably not going to play much into the decision to roster Boston bats tonight with the highest run line on the board. The Rays will be throwing Ryan Yarbrough and Ryne Stanek for the first six to seven innings if all goes according to plan. The Tampa Bay bullpen has a 13.9 K-BB% just slightly higher than the Angels over the last month, but with a FIP (3.47) nearly two runs lower. Junior Guerra and Anthony DeSclafani are the other two pitchers on the board who are averaging much less than six innings per start this year. The Brewers have a middling pen over the last month (4.02 FIP, 16.3 K-BB%). While Josh Hader has thrown each of the last two nights, he’s faced a total of four batters (15 pitches). The Reds have a 3.75 bullpen FIP over the last 30 days, but are one of just two teams below a five FIP with a sub-10 K-BB% over that span (8.5%).
Trying to differentiate between tonight's top two pitching options
The top two pitchers on a four game slate for Thursday night are pretty clearly Aaron Nola (25.1 K%, 52.3 GB%, 3.50 SIERA, .268 xwOBA) and Lance McCullers (25.7 K%, 53 GB%, 3.68 SIERA, .313 xwOBA). They are the only two pitchers above a 23.3 K%, the only two pitchers with more than one start below a four SIERA or .330 xwOBA (though Nola has a serious edge in the latter department), and the only two pitchers above a 43 GB%. Nola is the more expensive pitcher by $1K on DraftKings, McCullers by $700 on FanDuel. While the Nationals would seem the better offense than the Rays, by wRC+, the Nationals have been below average on the road (86) and vs RHP (92), though Houston is the most negative run environment on the board, Both offenses strike out somewhere around an average rate against RHP. Nola has failed to complete six innings just three times (16 starts). McCullers has failed to do so five times (16 starts). They are very difficult to differentiate. Nola probably has the reputation of being more consistent, but perhaps the cheaper is just the slightly better value on either site. It’s very difficult to find even another trust worthy arm or prominent value on the rest of the board.
Other tagged players: Lance McCullers Bombs Away in Fenway
The Red Sox continue to mash the baseball at home. They’ve put up some big run totals already in this series and now get to face a right-handed hitter that has a high fly-ball rate and a high hard contact rate. On the season, Jaime Barria has allowed a .319 xwOBA to lefties and a massive .438 xwOBA to righties. The one through five stack is viable here, although it does cost a pretty penny. Mookie Betts (.484 xwOBA), Andrew Benintendi (.411 xwOBA), J.D. Martinez (.480 xwOBA), Mitch Moreland (.451 xwOBA), and Xander Bogaerts (.377 xwOBA) all have great numbers against right-handed pitching this season.
Facing off Against a Fly-Ball Pitcher in Fenway
The Red Sox continue to mash the baseball at home. They’ve put up some big run totals already in this series and now get to face a right-handed hitter that has a high fly-ball rate and a high hard contact rate. On the season, Jaime Barria has allowed a .319 xwOBA to lefties and a massive .438 xwOBA to righties. The one through five stack is viable here, although it does cost a pretty penny. Mookie Betts (.484 xwOBA), Andrew Benintendi (.411 xwOBA), J.D. Martinez (.480 xwOBA), Mitch Moreland (.451 xwOBA), and Xander Bogaerts (.377 xwOBA) all have great numbers against right-handed pitching this season.
Great Matchup and a Great Ballpark leads to Massive Upside
McCullers will be the chalk play tonight and rightly so. He has the best matchup of the slate and he’s pitching in a good ballpark. On the season, he owns a 3.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 53%. He’s been in great form recently and he gets to face a Rays’ offense that has struggled against right-handed pitching all season. In fact, their projected lineup has a .303 xwOBA with a 24% strikeout rate against righties. McCullers is expensive, but he offers the best floor and ceiling combination of any pitcher in the slate.
Clayton Kershaw expected to be limited to 75 pitches on Thursday
Kershaw is set to make his second start since being activated off the disabled list in Thursday’s matchup with the Chicago Cubs, and according to manager Dave Roberts, the team is targeting 75-pitch limit in hopes that Kershaw can make it through five innings of work. Roberts also disclosed to reporters that he plans to utilize Walker Buehler in relief of Kershaw for his scheduled three innings after being activated from the disabled list earlier in the day with shoulder inflammation.
As reported by: Alanna Rizzo via Twitter
Play Both Sides
The Red Sox side will be the first target in this high total game tonight, but there’s plenty to like for the Angels as well. Ian Kinsler leads off for a team with the 2nd highest projected team total and he carries a low 8.8% K rate with 47% fly balls against left-handed pitching. When the Red Sox turn to righties in the bullpen, Kinsler retains his elite contact skills and his high fly balls to take advantage of the Green Monster in Fenway.
Next In Line Stack
The game in Fenway Park should garner most of the attention tonight, but the Brewers-Reds are not far behind. In four starts since coming off the DL, Anthony Desclafani just doesn’t look back to his old self yet. He has allowed a pile of home runs on a 47% hard hit rate with below average strikeouts. Throw in the hitters ballpark and a bad Reds bullpen, and there are all the makings for a big game for Milwaukee. I don’t like that Shaw has been hampered with a wrist injury, but he has the lowest salary of the big Brewers lefties along with the highest contact rate on the team and a .296 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Twins set to tee off against the worst xwOBA and aEV on the board this afternoon
Only the Mariners (5.49) have a higher implied run line that Twins (5.11) this afternoon against Lucas Giolito, who owns the highest xwOBA on the board (.387) for the entire day and is tied for the high mark with a 90.3 mph aEV. Robbie Grossman (89 wRC+, .124 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a cheap leadoff bat against a pitcher who has surrendered a .362 wOBA and .390 xwOBA to LHBs since last season. Eddie Rosario (157 wRC+, .293 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (139 wRC+, .291 ISO) are great bats behind him. Brian Dozier (110 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Logan Morrison (100 wRC+, .213 ISO) certainly have value as well.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier, Logan Morrison, Robbie Grossman, Lucas Giolito Jake Odorizzi does not have a reverse split this year, he's struggled against all batters
Jake Odorizzi is a reverse split, fly ball and HR prone pitcher who has allowed 15 ERs over his last 16.2 IP despite not allowing a HR over that span. He’s still allowed 14 on the year. The odd thing is that the reverse split seems to have disappeared. He’s been bad against batters from either side of the plate (LHBs .365 wOBA, 8 HRs – RHBs .351 wOBA, 6 HRs this year). Since last season, his xwOBA split is only separated by six points near .340. Avisail Garcia (110 wRC+, .150 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) moves to the second spot and is too cheap ($2.5K on FD, $3.4K on DK). Jose Abreu (131 wRC+, .242 ISO) is the best bat in the lineup against RHP. Yoan Moncada (117 wRC+, .213 ISO) rounds out an interesting mini-stack.
Other tagged players: Avisail Garcia, Yoan Moncada, Jake Odorizzi Tigers are actually a dangerous lineup against LHP
Only DraftKings knows why Sean Manaea exceeds $10K in Detroit this afternoon, but despite a couple of strong outings against weak offenses in two of his last three starts, there may be some merit in attacking him with right-handed Detroit bats. All nine for the Tigers bat from that side this afternoon, with a 4.42 implied run line. Against Manaea, RHBs have a .355 xwOBA and 39 Hard% since last season. While his actual wOBA is .270-272 against batters from either side of the plate this season alone, 12 of his 14 HRs have been surrendered to RHBs with a 42.4 Hard%. The Tigers do have some proficient bats against LHP, led by Nick Castellanos (181 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jeimer Candelario (152 wRC+, .259 ISO). Both catcher options as well: James McCann (134 wRC+, .189 ISO) and John Hicks (114 wRC+, .147 ISO). Even Jose Iglesias (109 wRC+, .151 ISO), who bats second today, has been above average against southpaws.
Other tagged players: Jeimer Candelario, Sean Manaea, James McCann, John Hicks, Jose Iglesias Cheap On FanDuel
If you’re playing on FanDuel tonight, Rafael Devers should be one of the first guys in your lineup; he’s way underpriced at $3,100. Barria has been better against lefties than righties, but he gives up a lot of hard contact to lefties as well. He has a 37.8% hard-hit rate and a 21.6% hard to soft contact ratio this season. After a slow start to the season, Devers has really picked it up lately. His OPS over the last ten games is .813, which is .105 points higher than where he’s at on the season.
High ISO With Some Fly Balls
Digging deep for value tonight, but I want to get as much exposure as I can to this LAA/BOS game tonight. Chris Young is massive fly ball hitter with a .250 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Johnson has struggled with right-handed hitters this season. as he has a .356 wOBA with a 1.56 WHIP against righties. The thing that concerns me about stacking the Angels? Johnson gets a lot of soft contact. Overall, I’ll be stacking the Red Sox a lot tonight and using some of the Angels as value options and fill-in options.