DFS Alerts

A's have some potential this afternoon against an up and down pitcher

The A’s have a 4.58 implied run line that’s third best on the board this afternoon. Michael Fulmer did tie a season high with nine strikeouts last time out, but failed to get through six innings. Each of his previous two outings were seven inning, one-run efforts, though he’s allowed at least three runs in six of his last nine starts (four or more in four). With a league average 20.9 K% for the season, his ERA and estimators are all slightly above four, but his start to start efforts seem completely unpredictable. LHBs (.303 wOBA, .332 xwOBA, 36.3 Hard%) have given him more trouble than RHBs (.282 wOBA, .316 xwOBA, 30.3 Hard%, 52.3 GB%) since last season. All three of Oakland’s LHBs would seem in play here: Dustin Fowler (99 wRC+, .155 ISO, 47.7 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year), who costs less than $3K on FD, Jed Lowrie (127 wRC+, .192 ISO), who has a 196 wRC+ over the last week, and Matt Olson (150 wRC+, .331 ISO, 50.2 Hard%), who tops the lineup with a 57.7 Hard% over the last week. Khris Davis (134 wRC+, .298 ISO) is the RHB worthy of attention.

0% IFFB Rate

Nick Williams is my favorite value play on tonight’s slate. He has a .224 ISO with a .472 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season, and being a massive groundball hitter, he benefits from facing a fly ball pitcher. Roark continues to struggle with left-handed hitters, and it’s been his downfall over the last couple of seasons. He has a .339 wOBA with a .199 ISO against lefties this year. He does get a good amount of soft contact, but he gives up a lot of fly balls, and that’s why I love Williams tonight.

Pitching may be difficult to pay up for this afternoon

Clayton Kershaw is the only pitcher above $10K on both sites this afternoon. His second return from the DL after nearly a month away went better than his first merely for the fact he hasn’t returned to the DL yet. He threw just 55 pitches and is likely to be on a low pitch limit again, which makes him nearly impossible to roster, despite the Cubs being without Kris Bryant. This is still an offense that is going to make him work (104 wRC+, 10 BB% vs LHP). Surprisingly, Sean Manaea is your other expensive DraftKings pitcher ($10.8K). He’s been a bit better recently with two outings of at least seven innings with two runs or less in his last three starts, but those were against the Royals and White Sox. The month of May had been a disaster for him. The Tigers have just a 9.8 HR/FB vs LHP, but a 112 wRC+ and 19.4 K%. He’d seem extremely overpriced here. The most interesting arm on the afternoon slate is Jon Gray. His 28.6 K% is best for the entire day by two full points (Kershaw is second). His .298 xwOBA is best on the afternoon board and has the largest negative difference from his actual wOBA (36 points higher) for the entire day. He gets out of Coors and has a massive park upgrade in San Francisco this afternoon. He hasn’t pitched in a negative run and power environment since mid-May, though that outing, also in San Francisco, did not go so well (3.2 IP – 5 ER – 4 K). Though he’s allowed 10 runs in Texas and Philly in recent starts, he’s also struck out 31 of his last 76 batters. The Giants have a 16.2 K-BB% and 10.9 HR/FB vs RHP. The cost for Gray is up to $9.5K on DraftKings. Tied with Gray for the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball this afternoon (5.2%), Jose Quintana may be another pitcher of interest this afternoon. His 8.4 SwStr% barely supports his 22 K% and he’s struck out a total of nine batters over his last three starts, but finds himself in an extremely negative run environment against an average offense at home (99 wRC+) and vs LHP (101 wRC+) with the best defense in baseball for just under $7.5K.

Early game in Miami projects as a potential pitcher's duel

The Diamondbacks and Marlins are available on the FanDuel afternoon slate, but not DraftKings. Both teams are below four implied runs with the Marlins (3.05) the low team on the board for the afternoon. Zack Greinke had been struggling, but snapped out of it with six shutout innings (seven strikeouts) in Pittsburgh last time out. His 26 K% is third best on the board for the entire day, but his 9.7% Barrels/BBE is second worst. Considering the park and opposing offense, there’s less concern about the latter today. He’s one of the top pitchers on the FanDuel board, facing an offense with a sub-90 wRC+ at home and vs RHP and without one of their top hitters (Realmuto). They have a 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP as well. Derek Dietrich (129 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Justin Bour (148 wRC+, .262 ISO) are playable Miami bats. Trevor Richards may be an option as well. He’s had a 24.5 K% since moving to the upper levels of the minors last year (20 AA & AAA starts) and has a 20.9 K% through nine major league starts this year, though he does walk too many (10.5%). The Diamondbacks have an 81 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP. David Peralta (124 wRC+, .221 ISO) has the top wRC+ and ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year in today’s lineup. Jake Lamb (103 wRC+, .221 ISO), Paul Goldschmidt (111 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Daniel Descalso (112 wRC+, .195 ISO) have all been a bit above average with some power, though Miami greatly suppresses the HR ball.

Expensive OF All Over This Game

Between J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mike Trout and Justin Upton, you should have no trouble spending some money in the outfield with this Fenway Park game tonight. It’s really close at the top, and there is not much to separate all these guys, but I will lean to the Boston righties first, as Jaime Barria is looking like an extreme reverse splits power pitcher. Martinez has shown more power than Betts against righties this season, so that is my slight lean, but if it’s all possible to jam them both in, go for it. Martinez has a .364 ISO with 50% hard hits and a home run every 10.2 AB against righties this season with Barria having allowed seven homers to just 107 righties faced this season with his high fly ball pitching style.

Don't Sleep on This High Upside Offense

Anthony DeSclafani has allowed a .378 wOBA to left-handed hitters since his return from the disabled list, and he has allowed a .350 wOBA to left-handed hitters for his career. His hard hit numbers are acually worse against RHBs this year, so this whole Brewers offense is in play in what could turn into a shootout at Great American Ball Park, especially in the summer heat. I’ll side with Yelich as my favorite play, as he looks very good at the plate right now and has two home runs and three extra base hits over the last three games. The other key pieces are also fine plays, with Braun and Shaw topping the list on a point per dollar basis for me.

The Forgotten Team Stack?

It feels like the Reds might get over-looked despite the short nature of this slate, and I love both sides of the Brewers/Reds contest this evening. It’s getting hot in Cincinnati, and the park plays to offense in the summer months, for sure. The Reds have improved from their woeful start to the season, and this is a team that can score some runs. Junior Guerra is nothing special, with 39%+ hard contact allowed to hitters from each side of the plate, and the Reds are a great team to load up on in GPPs tonight.

The Top Offense to Stack

Despite a solid 3.40 ERA, the overall profile for Jaime Barria doesn’t look all that great when you start to peel back the layers of the onion. He has a low ground ball rate and is allowing hard contact nearly 40% of the time, which doesn’t bode well against a dangerous Red Sox offense that is starting to get locked in right now. The Red Sox have the highest implied team total on the board by a wide margin at 5.5 runs, and I wouldn’t be scared of this matchup at all. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are obvious top plays if you can fit them in, and I like Mitch Moreland tonight as a great component of a stack. Eduardo Nunez remains a fine value choice if he finds his way into the lineup, as well.

It's This Ugly

With such limited pitching options on tonight’s slate, I’m actually looking at Ryan Yarbrough on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. Let’s make this clear, I’m paying up for pitching on FanDuel, and I don’t want to recommend any of the cheap options. Paying up for both pitchers on DraftKings and FantasyDraft is tough, and that’s how we get to Yarbrough. He’s going to be pitching out of the pen like normal and should face a right-handed heavy offense. The lefty has a .304 wOBA with a .149 ISO and a 7.7% hard to soft contact ratio against righties this season. He doesn’t have a big strikeout rate and he gives up a lot of fly balls, both of which concern me. I don’t love any cheap pitching option tonight, and I’m just taking a shot on Yarbrough because of price and ownership.

The Matchup Adds Some Upside

I almost never like rostering Tanner Roark, but this is one of the times where I will target him as an SP #2 choice. It’s a short slate with only four games, the other low-end pitching choices are extremely risk, and Roark gets a matchup against a Phillies team that enhances strikeout upside for opposing pitchers with a league-high 25.7% mark for the year. Roark is basically a league average arm in every respect, but I will take league average on a four game slate in this matchup.

The Top Pitcher on a Short Slate

McCullers has been a little hit or miss this season, but I am of the belief that people came into the season with slightly elevated expectations for him. His overall profile is still solid, though unspectacular, but he’s settling into a nice groove. His matchup tonight against the mediocre Rays offense gives him the nod for me over Aaron Nola, who has to face a Nationals team that is getting healthy these days. McCullers has also logged 18 strikeouts over 12 innings in his last two starts, and both of those came against a low strikeout Royals offense. I expect him to easily be the top point scorer at pitcher this evening in a favorable matchup.

One Of The Two Aces

On this four-game slate, it’s a clear two man top tier with Lance McCullers and Aaron Nola. The overall skills are extremely close between the two, and both have shown upside as well as some maddening inconsistency with their strikeouts. Their strikeout rates are separated by less than 1% and their SIERA’s are separated by less than 0.20. The deciding factor here in putting McCullers at the top is the matchup with a high strikeout Tampa team in a good pitchers ballpark, while Nola faces a tougher test at home against Washington. I like them both, but would put McCullers at the top of the list.

Weather outlook has improved since this morning, but still with some risk

Kevin’s updated forecast is more optimistic than his morning report, though some risk still remains in the northeast. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can stay updated until lock with Crunch Time with Kevin at 6:30 ET.

The Twins have a 4.82 implied run line for the James Shields experience in Chicago tonight. Shields just had a string of 11 straight starts with six innings or more snapped and has allowed 12 HRs this season, but half of them in back to back starts. One of those starts was against these Twins though. Eduardo Escobar (140 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Eddie Rosario (158 wRC+, .294 ISO) both took him deep in that start and both should be strongly considered tonight, though the former has a frightening 1 wRC+ and 0 Hard% over the last week. Logan Morrison’s absence means players won’t have to chose between he and Joe Mauer (109 wRC+, .390 xwOBA, .103 ISO) in stacks. Brian Dozier (110 wRC+, .206 ISO) gets the cleanup spot.

The positive run environment in Texas has not been kind to Mike Minor in his return to a major league rotation this year. He’s surrendered 12 HRs this season, 11 to RHBs, who have a .354 wOBA against him (33 GB%, 43.6 Hard%). The Padres have a 4.59 implied run line that’s upper middle of the board, but five batters with at least a 98 wRC+ and .189 ISO against LHP over the last calendar year. Manuel Margot (114 wRC+, .225 ISO), Hunter Renfroe (174 wRC+, .362 ISO) and Christian Villanueva (214 wRC+, .476 ISO) all cost less than $4K on DK or $3K on FD. Wil Myers (98 wRC+, .212 ISO) and Jose Pirela (124 wRC+, 189 ISO) have upside as well.