DFS Alerts
Prime Game For Bats
The Brewers-Reds game should be a top target tonight in all formats with two good offenses facing two bad pitchers in a good ballpark. The Reds Sal Romano is far more attackable with left-handed bats, coming in with just a 15.3% K rate while allowing 40% hard hits with no ground ball lean and a .370 wOBA against. Travis Shaw has the highest contact rate of any hitter in this lineup along with a .290 ISO, .376 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He’s also the most affordable of the top three bats in this lineup, joining Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar as a high upside stack.
Just The Best
It may not be possible to fit Mike Trout in most of your lineups tonight along with an ace pitcher, but this is too good of a hitter in too good of a matchup not to mark him as a Core Play. He is facing the lowest strikeout pitcher on this slate in David Hess, a guy with a silly low 11.8% strikeout rate to righties along with 48% fly balls and 35% hard contact allowed. Mike Trout against a low strikeout fly ball pitcher in Camden Yards? I think you know what to do.
The Top One-Off Play on the Board
I am not interested in full stacking a RH-heavy Cardinals lineup against Julio Teheran, but Matt Carpenter might be my favorite GPP play on the slate tonight. We all know that Teheran has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters in his career, and Matt Carpenter is absolutely locked in right now. He had five hits, five runs scored, and a pair of home runs in a game started by Corey Kluber the other night. After an awful start to the season, Carpenter is hitting .319 with a .407 OBP this month, and he has slugged eight home runs in June after hitting just seven in the first two plus months of the season. He is locked in and has a great matchup this evening. Play the man.
A Dirt Cheap GPP Stack
If you want to load up with pitching or other expensive bats tonight, you might want to consider the Pirates as a low-owned, affordable GPP stack. I like the projected 3-4-5 combination here, as Harrison, Freese, and Diaz are all dirt cheap and hit from the right side in a favorable matchup against Eric Lauer. The San Diego starter has allowed a 41% hard contact rate and .380+ wOBA to RHBs this season, and I am fine targeting bats against him even though he has been a bit better of late. The Pirates aren’t sexy and do have bust risk, but they could be a path to loading up on the mound and with other offensive spots this evening.
Other tagged players: David Freese Attacking the Worst Pitcher on the Slate
It’s been rough sledding for David Hess at the major league level, and there is nothing in his profile that sticks out as remotely positive. His strikeout rate is well below average at just 13%, his walks are elevated, and his SIERA is nearing six. He profiles as a splits-neutral arm and has actually allowed more hard contact to RHBs than LHBs this year. The Angels are clearly in play as a top stack tonight, with Trout being the “spendy” option with obvious potential, while the likes of Kinsler, Valbuena, and Simmons carry potential without breaking the bank.
Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Luis Valbuena, Andrelton Simmons A Salary-Saving SP #2 Choice
I will almost certainly elect to pay for one of the aces on FanDuel tonight, but if you are looking for a cheaper SP #2 choice on DraftKings or FantasyDraft, it comes down to Rich Hill and Joe Musgrove for me. I’ll highlight Musgrove here, simply because he likely won’t get as much traction. There’s not anything overwhelmingly great about his skill set, but he’s a solid arm with an xFIP just under 4.00 for the year to go along with average strikeout and walk rates. His matchup is boosted tonight in a pitcher-friendly park against a Padres offense that struggled to score runs in the Texas heat earlier this week. Musgrove is a great GPP pairing with one of the top arms on tonight’s slate.
The Top of the List of Aces
We have a ton of aces on the mound tonight, which makes roster building quite exciting, but deGrom is the clear-cut top selection for me. Not only does he have a matchup against a Marlins team that is relatively weak offensively, but you can also argue that he has the best profile of the group with his 31.4% strikeout rate, low walk rate, sub-2.00 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, and low hard contact rate allowed. There isn’t a weakness in his profile, and the matchup is great. Even if he is projected to be the highest owned of the group, I will still prioritize deGrom in GPP formats.
A Solid Mid-Tier
After paying for one of the aces on DK/FDRFT, we’re going to need a cheaper SP2 to make things work. I see a three-man tier of Rich Hill, Marco Gonzales and Joe Musgrove all at fair salaries. I can make a case for any of the three in any format, but I’m leaning towards Hill in tournaments and Gonzales in cash. Marco Gonzales is a matchup dependent, strike throwing machine with the good matchup tonight. His moderate 21.1% strikeout rate is joined by a low 5.3% walk rate with a consistent ability to pitch 6+ innings and pile up quality starts. The Royals projected lineup has just a .127 ISO and .284 wOBA and there is not a single batter on the team with more than four HR against left-handed pitching this season.
A Solid Mid-Tier
After paying for one of the aces on DK/FDRFT, we’re going to need a cheaper SP2 to make things work. I see a three-man tier of Rich Hill, Marco Gonzales and Joe Musgrove all at fair salaries. I can make a case for any of the three in any format, but I’m leaning towards Hill in tournaments and Gonzales in cash. In two start since coming off the DL, Rich Hill has looked closer to his old self with 11 strikeouts and three walks in 11 innings. He was struggling badly early in the season, with both blisters and performance, so I’d still like to see a little more before I go all-in, but if he’s indeed healthy, his long term skill set (30.1% K in 2017, 29.4% K in 2016) would make this salary a steal.
Pick Your Favorite
We’ve got a clear top tier of four aces today, and between Jacob deGrom, Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole and Patrick Corbin, we are likely to see some very strong outings. For me, it comes down to deGrom and Bauer at the top, followed ever so closely by Cole. All these guys have strikeout ability, where deGrom separates himself is with an ability to limit hard contact, which has helped to the most consistency of this group with his low 1.69 ERA and 2.88 SIERA. He faces a low power Miami team in a pitchers park, where he looks to continue his string of quality starts, where he’s pitched at least seven innings in seven of his last eight outings. I would give a slight edge to Trevor Bauer for GPP upside, but the safety in the matchup put deGrom ahead of him on my cash game list.
Small four game slate is not entirely free of weather risk
Just four games on the Thursday night slate and it does seem there’s a slight risk associated with one of them tonight. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and stay up to date until lock on Crunch Time with Kevin at 6:30 ET.
Brian Johnson will have to contend with an all right-handed lineup at Fenway
The Angels will attack lefty Brian Johnson with nine right-handed bats at Fenway tonight. In 63 major league innings since last season RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA slightly above .350 against him with a 37.9 GB%. While the key guys are Mike Trout (181 wRC+, .255 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), who has been struggling with a finger injury over the last week (55 wRC+, 20 Hard%), and Justin Upton (175 wRC+, .352 ISO), it’s difficult to say there are many poor choices in this lineup through the first five or six spots with some lower priced guys potentially off-setting some difficulties with fitting more expensive bats in your lineup tonight.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Brian Johnson Three Brewers exceed a 230 wRC+ over the last week, facing a HR prone pitcher in power friendly park tonight
Anthony DeSlafani has just a 10.9 K-BB% with five HRs allowed in his first 22 MLB innings since 2016. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a 40% hard hit rate. Lefties have a wOBA and xwOBA above .370. It’s hard to find a bat a dis-likable bat among the first six in the order, including Brad Miller (101 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who has a 241 wRC+ over the last week. Ryan Braun (100 wRC+, .191 ISO) is the only other bat in that grouping below a 125 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. He and Jesus Aguilar (132 wRC+, .288 ISO) both exceed a 230 wRC+ and 60 Hard% over the last week as well.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Anthony DeSclafani Jaime Barria's reverse split is likely to be a problem at Fenway
The Red Sox top the board with a 5.42 run line tonight. Only one other team is above 4.6. The only extremely positive run environment on the board is where they’ll face Jaime Barria, who has an 11.8 SwStr%, but just a 20.1 K% to go along with it. He has allowed nine HRs over his last 25 innings and has a board high .425 xwOBA over the last 30 days. An extreme reverse split so far, RHBs have a .365 wOBA (.438 xwOBA) against him so far, which is bad news when facing J.D. Martinez (178 wRC+, .378 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mookie Betts (130 wRC+, .245 ISO) at Fenway. Finding a way to pay up for them might be the trick though tonight. Andrew Benintendi (136 wRC+, .208 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (91 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (109 wRC+, .227 ISO) all project strongly as well. The Red Sox have a team 126 wRC+ at home this year, 117 vs RHP and 165 over the last seven days. All with strikeout rates below 19% and a 14+ HR/FB.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Jaime Barria, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland Tampa Bay is the only negative run environment on the board, but Houston lineup should be unfazed by Rays' pitching antics
The Astros will face first Ryne Stanek and then probably, mostly Ryan Yarbrough this afternoon. Both are a bit worse against RHBs. Though for Yarbrough, he has no real platoon split, xwOBA moves him up 51 points to .355 with the platoon disadvantage. It’s not Houston, but Tampa is the most, and really only, negative run environment in play tonight, which has the Astros at 4.23 implied runs, right in the middle of the board. The obvious names are George Springer (146 wRC+, .203 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Jose Altuve (140 wRC+, .148 ISO) and Alex Bregman (166 wRC+, .279 ISO), who could all see Yarbrough twice, but will face Stanek first time through, whom they project similarly well against. Josh Reddick (125 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Evan Gattis (110 wRC+, .224 ISO) are less costly directly behind them in the order.
Other tagged players: Ryne Stanek, Ryan Yarbrough, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick, Evan Gattis