DFS Alerts
Three high quality bats at potentially low ownership in a reasonable spot
The Cleveland Indians have just a 3.87 implied run line in a negative run environment against a pitcher with a wipeout slider and the highest strikeout rate on the slate (29.4%) and lowest xwOBA (.285) on the slate. However, Jack Flaherty has been less than perfect against LHBs in his career (.323 wOBA, .338 xwOBA). Francisco Lindor (125 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (138 wRC+, .202 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (159 wRC+, .311 ISO) are great plays at low ownership in a reasonable spot on a night where players should be able to afford high priced bats. Additionally, Kevin’s morning forecast is for St Louis to be warm and humid, potentially more hitter friendly than usual.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor, Jack Flaherty
Clayton Richard has been good against RHBs this year too, but does allow a lot of hard ground balls
The Rangers have a 4.91 implied run line against Clayton Richard that’s almost entirely about the run environment in Texas. Richard has gone at least six innings in nine straight starts, over which he has a 15.3 K-BB% with a 64.4 GB%. Players can immediately eliminate LHBs (.286 wOBA, .242 xwOBA, 70.6 GB% since last season). The Rangers do not. They’ve scattered three across the first eight batters. Even RHBs have just a .254 wOBA against Richard over this span with a 15.5 K-BB% and 58.6 GB%. The one caveat here is the rate of hard contact allowed. RHBs still have a 40.9 Hard% over this span and all batters have an 89.4 mph aEV against him this year. This makes Richard difficult to roster in this environment and probably means players should at least have some exposure to Adrian Beltre (173 wRC+, .204 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Elvis Andrus (126 wRC+, .198 ISO) because hard ground balls can go for hits. Jurickson Profar (131 wRC+, .286 ISO) and Delino DeShields (115 wRC+, .178 ISO) may be options as well, but Richard is not an easy pitcher to run on.
Other tagged players: Clayton Richard, Elvis Andrus, Delino DeShields, Jurickson Profar Arizona's matchup against Wei-Yin Chen may appear better on the surface than it actually is
Despite an offense with a 108 wRC+ and 15.6 HR/FB vs LHP, the Diamondbacks have just a 4.18 implied run line against a southpaw with a 15.6 K% and an ERA plus estimators all well over five. Statcast seems to think a bit better of Wei-Yin Chen (.332 xwOBA, 5.3% Barrels/BBE), who has averaged fewer than five innings through 11 starts and the negative run environment plays into that run line as well, but it’s also just a few bats doing the damage against southpaws for the D’Backs. Paul Goldschmidt (189 wRC+, .405 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) will play well against the bullpen as well, but John Ryan Murphy (151 wRC+, .427 xwOBA, .325 ISO, 54.8 Hard%) probably loses his usefulness when Chen exits the game, as does Nick Ahmed (139 wRC+, .273 ISO), whose numbers are not supported by an xwOBA (.325) that’s 49 points lower than his actual against southpaws over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: John Ryan Murphy, Nick Ahmed, Wei-Yin Chen There's one St Louis bat who should be on players' radars tonight
Shane Bieber has a 20+ K-BB% at every level of play since being drafted by Cleveland, including three major league starts. This has been achieved by an above average strikeout rate with phenomenal control. However, LHBs have a .414 wOBA (.356 xwOBA) with a 53.1 Hard% against him so far. Players can disregard all other St Louis bats in the negative run environment if they’d like, but Matt Carpenter (138 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball with a 315 wRC+ and three HRs (50 Hard%) over the last week. His cost has risen considerably, but that shouldn’t be much of an issue tonight.
Other tagged players: Shane Bieber Nelson Cruz is out again, though Mariners still own a top implied run line tonight
Alex Cobb has completed seven innings in three of his last five starts and has a 21.1 K% with a .310 xwOBA over the last 30 days. That said, he still pitches in a very dangerous park and is facing a good offense, but the Mariners are without their best hitter for the second night in a row. Yet, their 4.83 implied run line is fourth best on the board. This could be a spot where Vegas is off, but batters from either side are between a .328 and .344 wOBA and xwOBA against Cobb since last year with a hard hit rate above one-third of batted balls. Mitch Haniger (128 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is now the top bat in the lineup. Jean Segura (110 wRC+, .136 ISO) provides a competent bat against RHP with some speed. Kyle Seager (96 wRC+, .217 ISO), a more affordable power source.
Other tagged players: Alex Cobb, Jean Segura, Kyle Seager Red hot Matt Olson is facing a HR prone pitcher with a park upgrade tonight
The A’s have a 120 wRC+ on the road, 108 wRC+ vs RHP and 140 wRC+ over the last seven days, including a Hard-Soft rate above 24% in each of the first two instances and a 16.2 HR/FB outside of Oakland this year. Combine that with the 16 HRs Mike Fiers has allowed this year and Vegas has arrived at 4.95 implied runs, the second highest total on the board tonight. Since last season, the wOBA and xwOBA for all batters is between .340 and .360 against Fiers, as is his wOBA for this season alone with LHBs owning a slight edge with nine of his 16 HRs surrendered. Matt Olson (148 wRC+, .331 ISO) is the top bat in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year. He has a 219 wRC+ with a team best 58.3 Hard% over the last week. Dustin Fowler (101 wRC+, .152 ISO), Matt Joyce (120 wRC+, .234 ISO), Jed Lowrie (124 wRC+, .187 ISO) and Khris Davis (135 wRC+, .300 ISO) are all fine options in front of Olson as well.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Matt Joyce, Mike Fiers, Dustin Fowler, Jed Lowrie Weak Options at Pitcher Tonight
Porcello isn’t getting a lot of love around the DFS industry tonight. I completely understand why a fade makes sense in a different slate, but it’s not like we have a lot of options to work with tonight. Porcello is a sizable favorite, he has good numbers as a whole, and he’s priced below $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. In his 16 starts this season, he owns a 3.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. While I’m not expecting a dominant performance, Porcello provides a high floor, which can’t be said about most pitchers in this slate.
Struggling to Find Safety in this Slate
Wood’s numbers have tailed off a bit recently, but he still owns a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 5% on the season. He’s pitching at home in a great ballpark and he’s a sizable favorite against the Cubs, whose projected lineup has a .305 xwOBA and a 24% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. He’s not a sexy play by any means, but he offers a high floor and a decent ceiling in this matchup.
Red Sox have improved against LHP (and dominate at home), but still have few proficient RHBs against southpaws
Andrew Heaney has a 22.1 K% with an ERA and all estimators below four and is facing an offense with a 90 wRC+ and 16.4 K-BB% vs LHP. That offense also has a 124 wRC+ at home and 141 wRC+ with a 16.5 K% and 31.8 Hard-Soft% over the last seven days. That 90 wRC+ vs LHP used to be much lower too. Add one of the most positive run environments in play tonight and the Red Sox top the board at 5.08 implied runs tonight. Heaney adds to his own problems with just a 16.3 K% over the last 30 days. Batters with the platoon advantage have a .348 wOBA, .364 xwOBA, 43.4 Hard% and 35.5 GB% against him since last season. J.D. Martinez (161 wRC+, .326 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Mookie Betts (173 wRC+, .278 ISO) were already in most lineups before even reading any of that. Both exceed a 180 wRC+ over the last week. Go ahead and add Xander Bogaerts too (125 wRC+, .147 ISO). The Red Sox do not have another RHB above a 60 wRC+ against LHP over the last calendar year though, while Heaney has crippled LHBs since last year (.241 wOBA, .249 xwOBA, 20 Hard%, 55.8 GB%).
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Heaney Why does Baltimore have one of the higher run totals on the board against Wade LeBlanc?
The Orioles have been one of the worst offenses in baseball this year (90 wRC+ at home, 80 wRC+ vs LHP), while Wade LeBlanc has been pretty good (19.8 K%, 3.76 FIP) and even has a reverse split (.286 wOBA vs RHBs since last year). Vegas seems to have unjustified confidence in the Baltimore lineup though. Their 4.67 implied run line is sixth highest on the board. It starts to come apart a bit with LeBlanc’s .369 xwOBA over the last month. He’s both dominated and been punished by the Red Sox in his last two starts with two more difficult matchups against the Angels and Astros preceding that. The reverse split is also picked apart by xwOBA though which has batters from either side either two or three points above .340 since last season. Manny Machado (113 wRC+, .235 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the obvious candidate here, but has some hot bats behind him. Danny Valencia (126 wRC+, .218 ISO) costs $3.2K or less and has a 165 wRC+ over the last week. Mark Trumbo (99 wRC+, .211 ISO) has a 231 wRC+ with four HRs and a 76.9 Hard% over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Wade LeBlanc, Danny Valencia, Mark Trumbo Brandon Nimmo returns against a pitcher with major platoon issues
Ivan Nova has a 24.7 K% over the last month, but with the same 9.1 SwStr% that has earned him a 19.2 K% this season. Further, he’s struck out eight in two of his last three starts, but has exceeded five strikeouts in just four of his 14 starts this year, while still having issues with LHBs (.352 wOBA, .385 xwOBA since last year). There are some weather concerns and Citi Field is one of the most negative run environments in baseball, which has the Mets at just 4.07 implied runs, but the wind is blowing out a bit (though mostly to left), which could be a bump for bats tonight. The big news here is that Brandon Nimmo (163 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) returns from a hand plunking, which is actually bad news for Michael Conforto (140 wRC+, .226 ISO), who drops down to fifth in the order despite homering last night. Asdrubal Cabrera (106 wRC+, .189 ISO) is an affordable second base option and the only other LHB in this lineup, which may make Nova slightly interesting himself for just $7K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Ivan Nova, Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera Angels lack the left-handed bats with which to attack Rick Porcello
Ric Porcello still has some platoon issues (LHBs .340 wOBA, .346 xwOBA, 40.5 Hard%, 33.7 GB%) since last season, but this season, he’s held batters from either side below a .300 wOBA (LHBs .294, though with similar hard hit and ground ball rates). There’s also the fact that the Angels lack the bats from that side of the plate with which to attack him with. However, they still have a smack in the middle of the board 4.42 implied run line in one of the most positive run environments in play tonight. If necessary, Luis Valbuena (96 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) could provide some value for $3.2K or less at a corner infield spot. His 140 wRC+ over the last week is highest in the lineup. Then there’s Mike Trout (185 wRC+, .311 ISO), who players should have the money to afford at more than $5K tonight. However, he has just a 45 wRC+ and 16.7 Hard% over the last week as a finger injury has forced him to DH and his numbers against Porcello are less than stellar as well. In 34 PAs, he does have two HRs with a .343 wOBA, but since Statcast began recording batted balls in 2015, he has just a .278 xwOBA against him.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Rick Porcello Daily Bullpen Alert: Likely to see a lot of arms in Miami
Each of the four bullpens above a five FIP over the last month are in play tonight. The Mets (6.04, 8.7%) and the Rockies (5.02, 6.2%) are the only two that combine the high FIP with a K-BB below 10%. Bad news for attackers are that both are in extremely negative run environments tonight with both Zack Wheeler and Kyle Freeland on the top half of the board in innings per start. The game in New York could have some rain issues though, and if that knocks out Wheeler early, the only remaining problem is Pittsburgh’s 37 wRC+ and 7.7 HR/FB over the last week. The game most likely to see a lot of pitchers is in Miami. Robbie Ray is making his first start back from injury, while Wei-Yin Chen is the only other pitcher on the board besides Ray allowing fewer than five innings per start (11 starts). The bullpens for these two teams have performed very similarly over the last month with a FIP between 3.64-3.74 and a K-BB between 10-11%. Luis Cessa is making his first start of the season, which is not likely to last long. The Yankees are the only bullpen on the board combining a FIP below three (2.65) with a K-BB above 20 (22.4%) over the last 30 days.
Paying down for pitching could be optimal tonight
Considering the lack of high end pitching tonight and the lack of quality spots for the few that are even close, paying down for pitching might be the thing to do tonight. Alex Wood hasn’t been as good as last season, but still has a 22.3 K% and .309 xwOBA. He costs within a few hundred of $8K on either site in one of the most negative run environments in baseball against a difficult Cubs’ offense, but one without their top RHB. Shane Bieber is in a similar cost range. He’s made just three starts with a 25.0 K-BB%. Though mostly due to excellent control, he’s never been below a 20 K-BB% at any level since being drafted, which requires at least an above average strikeout rate. The run environment favors him and the Cardinals have a 15.0 K-BB% vs RHP. Zack Wheeler always seems to have that one bad inning or suffer the fate of a bullpen who can’t strand his runners. He’s missed completing six innings just once (by a single out) in his last seven starts, has a 22.3 K% and an 85.6 mph aEV that’s third best on the board tonight (only the two pitchers in San Francisco are lower). He costs just $6.3K on DraftKings in one of the most negative run environments in baseball against an offense with a 37 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%, and 7.7 HR/FB over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Shane Bieber, Zack Wheeler Wednesday's board is lacking in high end pitching
Just two pitchers reach $10K on either site (none on FanDuel) on an 11 game slate tonight. Madison Bumgarner has made just four starts this year. Throwing eight shutout innings against the Padres in his most recent with eight of his 17 strikeouts this season. His 3.20 ERA is boosted by a .244 BABIP and 80.7 LOB%, but his .301 xwOBA is supported by the lowest aEV (84.7 mph) and 95+ mph EV (24.7%) on the board tonight. The Rockies are more competent against LHP (100 wRC+, 17.7 HR/FB), but the run environment is one of the most negative in baseball. Robbie Ray makes his first start since April. In two minor league rehab starts (A, AAA), he faced a total of 31 batters, striking out 12 with just one walk, but two HRs. He may have some limitations in his first start back, but faces the Marlins (80 wRC+, 22 K%, 8.2 HR/FB vs LHP) in Miami. Rick Porcello is the only other pitcher above $9K on both sites. He’s coming off seven shutout innings for the second time this season. While he has just a 22.7 K%, just one pitcher with more than a few starts exceeds 25% today (Jack Flaherty). Flaherty (.285) is also the only pitcher on the board with a lower xwOBA than Porcello’s .296. However, Porcello pitches in one of the worst run environments on the slate against an offense with a 107 wRC+ and 20.2 K% vs RHP this season. However, the Angels are predominantly right-handed and Porcello has a .267 wOBA, 54.5 GB% and -4.2 Hard-Soft% against batters from that side this season. Flaherty (29.4 K%, .285 xwOBA) is right around the $9K mark on either site. The upside is seven innings with 13 strikeouts, which he’s done twice, including his last start. He faces a DH-less AL team in a negative run environment. While his slider can dominate, it also gives him a large platoon split (LHBs .323 wOBA, .338 xwOBA, 35.8 Hard%) and Cleveland has some elite level LHBs at the top of the lineup.
Other tagged players: Robbie Ray, Rick Porcello, Jack Flaherty