DFS Alerts
High priced bats could pay off in one of the top offensive spots on the board
One of the more unlikely things to happen tonight is Andrew Cashner escaping some damage against a dangerous Seattle (5.96 runs is second best on the board) offense that gets a park upgrade in Baltimore tonight. The ground ball rate has dropped to 39.5% this season and his previous platoon split issues are gone. This year, RHBs have a ..404 wOBA against him with just a 4.1 K-BB%. Cashner’s .389 xwOBA overall and 89.1 mph aEV is unlikely to play well in this spot. The Seattle offense is not cheap, but Nelson Cruz (148 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Mitch Haniger (127 wRC+, .228 ISO) have more than enough upside to cover their price. The former has a 332 wRC+ and 68.4 Hard% over the last week. Jean Segura (106 wRC+, .136 ISO) returns to the lineup as well.
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, Andrew Cashner
Balanced Texas lineup not a great DFS fit, but could benefit Rangers later in game
The Rangers top the board with a 5.02 implied run line at home against Joey Lucchesi, against whom RHBs have a .350 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) with a 43.1 Hard% and 38.3 GB%. That’s great for some of the right-handed bats in this lineup like Adrian Beltre (175 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Elvis Andrus (134 wRC+, .209 ISO), Jurickson Profar (135 wRC+, .294 ISO) and Robinson Chirinos (158 wRC+, .250 ISO). There are a couple of problems here. First, Lucchesi is just one start back from the DL and hasn’t surpassed 71 pitches since May 4th. The Padres have some semblance of competence in the bullpen behind him. Also, the Rangers don’t heavily platoon and prefer to balance their lineup. This is not a good thing the first time or two through the order because LHBs have a .264 wOBA, 23.1 Hard% and 65.4 GB% against Lucchesi. It essentially takes them all off the board. Shin-Soo Choo (112 wRC+, .089 ISO) has a 220 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week, but costs $5K on DraftKings now without any power against southpaws. The good news is that this balancing of the lineup may help the Rangers deeper in the game when the San Diego bullpen can’t mix and match as frequently without back to back batters from the same side of the plate all the way down the lineup. Batters further down the lineup may not see Lucchesi more than once or twice, but Beltre and Andrus are in a great spot for sure.
Other tagged players: Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, Shin-soo Choo, Robinson Chirinos, Joey Lucchesi Using PlateIQ new Premium Reports to identify strong matchups against Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle likes to throw four-seam fastballs. He does so about two-thirds of the time and tries to keep it up in the zone or above, but has allowed eight HRs with the pitch this year (seven more with sliders and changeups). The slider is a woeful pitch with a .450 xwOBA and 92.8 mph aEV. He throws it mostly to RHBs, but will dabble against lefties. This is where PlateIQ comes in really handy, complete with Premium Reports now. We can see right away that Freddie Freeman (139 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Ozzie Albies (103 wRC+, .195 ISO) both hammer heaters and sliders. The reports confirm some negative recent trends in Albies’ batted ball rates, but still consider this an overall favorable matchup for him by a Player Rating above 60 (Freeman and Nick Markakis are both higher). Batters from the left side of the plate have a career .402 wOBA with a 46 Hard% against Mahle, making them all either high upside players and/or decent values tonight for a team with a 4.91 implied run line that’s third best on the board.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Tyler Mahle This Offense has Upside??
The Padres are my GPP specials of the night. They see a major ballpark boost playing in Texas, they get to use the DH in this series, and they draw an exploitable matchup against Cole Hamels. On the season, Hamels has allowed a .357 xwOBA and a 48% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Christian Villanueva, and Jose Pirela make a great four-man stack and a cheap one at that.
The Ballpark and Pitcher both Favor the Lefties in this Lineup
If the Braves are anything like my first carrot cake experience, we are going to be in for a grand evening. They draw an exploitable matchup against Tyler Mahle, who has allowed a .383 xwOBA with a massive 48% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. He also has a high walk rate (14%) and a low ground ball rate (32%) when facing lefties. Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Nick Markakis make a great four-man stack in tournaments. Freeman currently owns a .435 xwOBA with a 47% hard contact rate against righties this season.
Underrated and Underpriced SP2
Taillon is quietly having another good season for the Pirates. He owns a SIERA of 3.69 with a 23% strikeout rate. He has good control, he generates ground balls, and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. His salary across the industry has yet to catch up to his production, which gives us an opportunity to target a talented pitcher at a cheap price point. The Mets have hit right-handed pitching well this season, but their projected lineup has a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Hit the Lock Button on Mr. Kate Upton
Verlander is the clear ace of the slate. We can usually find a reason to fade anyone in baseball (price, ownership, form, etc.), but there aren’t any other pitchers in this slate with the same floor and ceiling projections as Verlander. In 16 starts this season, he has a 2.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a hard contact rate of 26%. The Blue Jays have a talented offense, but their numbers on the road are right around the major league average. Verlander should have no issue racking up strikeouts here, as Toronto’s projected lineup has a 23% k-rate against righties this season.
Cheap Baltimore bats could have some value against a Felix Hernandez coming off of two strong starts
Felix Hernandez is coming off 12 innings of four run ball (just two earned) against the Yankees and Red Sox over his last two starts, striking out 12 of 49 batters faced with a 51.4 GB%. He did have a hard hit rate above 60% against the Yankees though. Yet, the Orioles still have a 4.54 implied run line that’s less than a half run off the top spot on the board. There are just three batters in the lineup above an 82 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year, but what they do offer is a modicum of affordability, which players who are paying up for Verlander tonight are looking for. While LHBs have a .350 wOBA (.396 xwOBA) against Felix since last season, RHBs are within four points of a .330 wOBA and xwOBA as well. Only Manny Machado (130 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mark Trumbo (82 wRC+, .190 ISO) are above $4K on DraftKings/$3K on FanDuel. Collby Rasmus (51 wRC+, .121 ISO) costs just $2.3K on FanDuel in the leadoff spot. There are not a lot to love in the Baltimore lineup, but there may be some value.
Other tagged players: Felix Hernandez, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo Daily Bullpen Alert: Several pitchers averaging five innings or less, but some strong bullpens behind them
There are several pitchers with on tonight’s board averaging five innings per start or less. The lowest of which his Jonathan Loaisiga, who the Yankees have been cautious with and he’s walked 15.8% through his first two starts. The bad news is that it’s difficult to take advantage of . The Yankee bullpen has a 2.77 FIP and 20.7 K-BB% over the last 30 days, both top three marks in baseball. At completely the opposite end of the spectrum, the Mets have a major league worst 6.08 FIP over the last month (8.4 K-BB%). Seth Lugo has averaged 4+ innings per starts, but has only made four with one of those at Coors. He has gone six innings and thrown 100 pitches in two of his starts. Dan Straily is averaging less than five innings per start as well. The Miami bullpen is somewhat improved over the last month (3.98 FIP, but just a 10.2 K-BB%). The park in Miami is a deterrent. The bullpen should not be. Joey Lucchesi lasted 11 batters (51 pitches) in his return from the DL. His lone rehab start lasted 13 batters. He hasn’t surpassed 71 pitches in a game in over a month and a half. The San Diego bullpen is tough though (3.69 FIP, 20.1 K-BB% last 30 days). Kenta Maeda has struggled since returning from the DL as well and the Dodgers have been cautious with him in the past as well. They generally have the means to do so, though while the Bullpen has a 3.53 FIP over the last month, the 13.7 K-BB% is more league average.
The second best xwOBA on the board (22.5 K%, 51.1 GB%) for around $5K less
While Justin Verlander is the clear top play on the board, there are some interesting options on the lower half of the board, mostly to pair with him on DraftKings, but as a stand alone, Jameson Taillon could make some sense as a pivot. He’s not going to blow the rest of the board away, but there’s significant evidence that he’s under-priced below $8K. He offers an above average strikeout rate (22.5%), 51.1 GB% and the second best xwOBA on the board .283, supported by the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball (4.5%). Citi Field is a park upgrade, where the Mets have just an 82 wRC+, 23.7 K% and 8.8 HR/FB this year. He looks even better if Brandon Nimmo (left after being HBP Sunday) is out of the lineup tonight. Seth Lugo may be playable for $7.1K on DraftKings, but may be even more interesting for just $5.9K on FanDuel. He was unable to utilize his curveball effectively at Coors last time out, but returns home to face a Pittsburgh team with a 28 wRC+, 19.4 K-BB% and 2.8 HR/FB over the last week. Additional compliments to Verlander on DraftKings could include Vince Velasquez ($6.6K), who faces the Yankees in a very power friendly park for RHBs, but they lose Sanchez and the DH tonight. He’s completed six innings in eight of 15 starts and only four pitchers better his .295 xwOBA. Every pitcher in his strikeout rate (28.5%) costs at least 50% more. John Gant costs $5K and gets Cleveland in negative run environment without a DH. His aEV (89.4 mph) is a concern, but he has a 21.2 K% in 94 career innings (12 starts). Dan Straily has some terrifying Statcast numbers (.439 xwOBA, 12.4% Barrels/BBE) and sometimes struggles to get through even five innings, but offers a 21.7 K% over the last 30 days in one of the most power suppressing parks in the league (not that it’s helped him this year) for the minimum cost against an improving Arizona offense, but still one with just an 81 wRC+ and 24.9 K% against RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Justin Verlander, Seth Lugo, Vince Velasquez, John Gant, Dan Straily Is Verlander the only reasonable high priced play?
Justin Verlander is Monday’s top pitcher by mile. He leads the board with a 32 K%, 13.1 SwStr%, 6.2 innings per start and .238 xwOBA. No other pitcher is within 45 points of that last number. He’s also pitching in what may be the most negative run environment in baseball. The Blue Jays have a 15.6 HR/FB vs RHP with a 23.6 K%. The biggest problem would be affordability ($11.7K FD/$13.3K DK). Four more pitchers reach the $10K mark on DraftKings (Cole Hamels misses by just $100 against the Padres), though only two more are even above $9K on FanDuel. Mike Clevinger averages the second most innings per start. He’s pitched into the seventh in 10 of his last 14 starts and his 86 mph aEV is best on the board. Back to back double digit strikeout games against the White Sox finally have his strikeout rate above average (22.7%). He’s a bit more expensive than players might like ($9.8K on FD), but isn’t in a bad spot in St Louis (30.7 K% last seven days). Mike Foltynewicz has just a 9.7 SwStr% to pair with his 28.9 K% and is making his return from a two week DL stint (tricep) to face the hottest offense on the board (164 wRC+, 6.8 K-BB%, 24 HR/FB, 40.7 Hard-Soft% last seven days). There may be an argument on FanDuel for $8.7K, where five pitchers are more expensive, but he costs $11.8K on DK (second most expensive). J.A. Happ is also in one of the most negative run environments in baseball, but has to face the Astros (122 wRC+, 20.6 K% vs LHP). The Astros have a team 3.5 K-BB% over the last week. Blake Snell has increased his walk rate two points after walking 11 of 52 Yankees and Astros over his last two starts. Though the Nationals have just an 88 wRC+ against LHP this year, the lineup is nearly at full strength and the team has a 110 wRC+ over the last week. Snell barely reaches the $10K mark on DraftKings and his 13 SwStr% is just one-tenth of a point off the lead today.
Other tagged players: J.A. Happ, Mike Clevinger, Mike Foltynewicz, Cole Hamels, Blake Snell Limited Upside But A Nice Floor
Seth Lugo is one of the value pitchers to consider on this slate. The only downfall is the Pirates don’t typically strike out. The projected starting lineup for the Pirates has a .314 wOBA with a .148 ISO and a 16.2% strikeout rate. Only one starter has a strikeout rate over 20% against right-handed pitching this season. Lugo has been great and comes in with a 27.2% strikeout rate. That gives him a little bump here, but I could see him pitch deep into this game, which also gives him a nice bump. He has a 3.27 xFIP with a 5.5% walk rate and a 10.5% hard to soft contact ratio. All of those numbers suggest he has a nice floor in this spot tonight.
Nice Floor In This Matchup
I’m not a Shelby Miller guy, but he’s too cheap on a slate with limited value options tonight. I don’t think you’ll need to go down on FanDuel, but I do think he’s playable as an SP2 on DraftKings. He threw four rehab games in AA, so he should throw 85-95 pitches tonight. Miller has always been really good against righties but has struggled with lefties. The lefties of Bour and Dietrich worry me tonight, but the ballpark helps with that worry. From 2016 until when he got hurt in 2017, Miller had a .309 wOBA with a .129 ISO against right-handed hitters. He tends to throw a lot of strikes and doesn’t typically give up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters.
Look At The Difference In Price
One of the things that stood out to me the most today was the pricing of the Seattle bats on FanDuel compared to on DraftKings. Dee Gordon and Kyle Seager are both over $4,000 on DraftKings yet under $3,000 on FanDuel. They get a massive ballpark upgrade and face a very bad Andrew Cashner, who has a .356 wOBA with a .242 ISO against left-handed hitters this season. Kyle Seager has a low .284 wOBA but a very nice .402 CXwOBA against righties this season. His .219 BABIP suggest he’s getting unlucky or a lot of it has to do with playing in a pitcher’s ballpark for half of his games. Also, BABIP numbers are usually lower for fly ball hitters, which again that ballpark doesn’t help. Despite all of this, his power numbers and average exit velocity are above average.
Only Need One Big Hit At This Price
There are actually some solid catcher options on this slate tonight, so punting catcher might not work out. That has never stopped me before though, so I’m looking at Alex Avila on DraftKings tonight. He’s $2,500 and facing a right-handed pitcher that has been awful against lefties this season. Straily has a .389 wOBA with a .208 ISO and a 47.3% hard hit rate against lefties. Avila’s numbers aren’t anything special this season, as he has a .110 ISO with a .219 wOBA. With that said, he has a .457 CXwOBA with a 91.7 average exit velocity and a 53.5% hard hit rate. Avila strikes out a ton, but Straily is a low strikeout guy.