DFS Alerts
Pay Down To Move Up
There are a lot of high end bats to pay for tonight, but I am prioritizing pitching, which means I’ll need to be saving salary with my bats. If I can get power upside with solid contact against a low strikeout pitcher at this salary, I’m going to jump on it. Reynaldo Lopez has a silly low 14.6% strikeout rate with high fly balls and high walks against lefties. Morrison has a good eye at the plate and hits the ball hard and in the air. There is a high risk of fly ball outs here, but it’s more than priced in. He should have base runners on ahead of him and gets both a ballpark boost and a bad White Sox bullpen to look forward to.
Way Too Cheap On FanDuel
The Padres have a 4.92 implied team total tonight, and they’re all extremely cheap on FanDuel. With that said, I think Eric Hosmer is a top play on the slate, not just one of the best value options on it. It’s going to be extremely hot in Texas tonight, and while Bibens-Dirkx has pitched well in a small sample size against lefties this season, he was awful against them last year. I really think the regression starts tonight, even though it’s unusual for me to want the Padres against a right-handed pitcher. Hosmer has a .410 CXwOBA with a 90.6 average exit velocity against right-handed pitching this season.
Too Cheap For These Skills
Jon Lester has had a lot of things go his way this season, but his underlying skills against righties just aren’t anything special with 18.4% K, 38% FB and 38% hard hits allowed. He’s been very fortunate on balls in play, and he’s going to need that luck again with Justin Turner’s elite plate skills against lefties. In 2017, Turner had more walks than strikeouts against lefties along with a huge .321 ISO and .488 BABIP. Since coming off the DL this season, he’s right back at it with twice as many walks as strikeouts and a 42% hard hit rate.
When Does The Luck Turn?
If you’re looking to spend up at pitcher tonight, I think Jose Osuna is way too cheap for his abilities and upside in this matchup. In a small sample size, Osuna has a .251 wOBA against lefties this season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. His .067 BABIP suggest he’s been extremely unlucky this season. He has a .304 ISO with a .472 CXwOBA. Matz is allowing a lot of hard contact to righties this season, and his ISO is up to .222 against them as well. Osuna is cheap on all sites, but I really like the $2,000 price on FanDuel tonight.
Just Look At The Soft Contact Numbers
If you listened to the Morning Grind podcast today, you already know how much I love Chad Pinder in this matchup. In 86 PAs against lefties this season, he has a .169 ISO with a .351 wOBA. Nothing special in those numbers, but when we dig into it a little more, we see the numbers that make him a great play at his price. He has a .521 CXwOBA with an average exit velocity of 93.2 and a massive 64% hard-hit rate. In 86 PAs he’s only making soft contact 2% of the time. Hardy has a low strikeout rate against righties and tends to give up fly balls. Pinder should be batting second in this matchup, so he’s in play in all formats for me.
Cheap SP2 Option
The Tigers continue to be one of the worst teams in baseball against right-handed pitching, and with all the studs on the slate, I think Montas is in play as an SP2 tonight. Martin is the only projected starter with a wOBA over .350 against righties this season, and Castellanos (.201) and Goodrum (.217) are the only two guys with ISOs over .200 against RHP. The projected starters have a .150 ISO with a .305 wOBA and a 22.7% strikeout rate against righties in 2018. Montas isn’t a big strikeout guy, but he induces a lot of ground balls, and his power numbers are solid. With the righties, he has a .046 ISO with a 133.7 average hit distance and only a 5.6% well hit rate.
Attacking The Upside
It’s a small sample size, but Freddy Peralta has looked great in two of his first three starts this season. Before being called up, he had a 13.7% swinging strike rate with a 34.3% strikeout rate in 59 innings in AAA. He has a 14.3% swinging strike rate with a 41% strikeout rate in 15.2 innings in the majors this season. When you think about the Royals, you don’t think about a lot of strikeouts, but that’s certainly not the case right now. With Duda back and some of the young guys getting called up, the projected starting lineup has a 20.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. While Duda adds another threat, there still isn’t enough for me to worry about when it comes to power in this lineup, so I really like Peralta in this spot.
Upside Pitcher, Upside Matchup
It’s a battle between Severino and Kluber at the high end, and with the Phillies having the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching, Severino gets the nod for me. He has a higher strikeout rate than Kluber to begin with, 30.2% vs 27.2%, and add in some weather risk for Kluber, and it’s just more edge to Severino. On DK/FDRFT, I would be happy with split exposure, but the salary gap is another big edge for Severino on FanDuel.
He's An Ace
Though we don’t have the type of sample size we have on the other elite pitchers, there is just not a single thing in Stripling’s skill set that is short of elite ace territory. Even on a slate with Kluber and Severino, Stripling’s numbers stand out. He has the lowest ERA and SIERA of any of the aces going tonight and a 25.7% hard hit rate that is the lowest of any of them. In nine starts dating back to early May, he has an absolutely ridiculous 61:2 K:BB ratio. 61:2! That is unheard of brilliance. He’s still priced as if he’s a notch below the aces, but the skills say he’s notch above.
Start of Monday's CIN-ATL game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves on Monday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Braves have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Mike Foltynewicz not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this game to play following this initial weather stoppage, which keeps both pitchers and hitters realistically in consideration for all formats.
As reported by: Grant McAuley via Twitter
Duane Underwood makes his major league debut in L.A.
Duane Underwood is currently thought of as a future bullpen arm with Fangraphs calling his fastball lifeless when grading him the 22nd of 23 ranked prospects in the system (40 Future Value grade). The advantage he has against the Dodgers is lack of familiarity and a negative run environment, though it may not be enough. The lineup has not yet been released, but among those projected, Joc Pederson (129 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Max Muncy (159 wRC+, .328 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (130 wRC+, .261 ISO are all expected to be among the first five in the order with an ISO above .260 against RHP over the last calendar year. Each are also above a 170 wRC+ and 45% hard hit rate over the last week.
Other tagged players: Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Duane Underwood
Evening forecast has some increased risk in a couple of spots
Kevin has updated his forecast for Monday night and a couple of spots have increased in risk since this morning. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get updates until lock on Crunch Time with Kevin at 6:30 ET.
Cleveland bats have upside despite park downgrade and DH loss vs pitcher with some platoon issues
John Gant has a league average strikeout rate (21.2%) through 94 career innings (12 starts). While he’s not a bad shot to take in an SP2 spot at a low price with the Indians at just 4.22 implied runs in a power suppressing NL park, he does have some issues with contact (89.4 mph aEV), specifically with LHBs (.329 wOBA, .356 xwOBA, 55.2 Hard% since last year), making the top of the Cleveland lineup as viable as ever. Francisco Lindor (125 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (163 wRC+, .316 ISO) are both above a 250 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor Cheap bats with power in Texas could help pave way for high priced pitching
Though still just barely upper half of the board, a 4.47 implied run line is really kind of below average for Texas, but their 89 wRC+ against LHP, the Padres have some RHBs who can mash. Batters from that side of the plate have a .322 wOBA against Cole Hamels since last year, but a .348 xwOBA with a 41.6 Hard%. He’s allowed 18 HRs this season, 11 of them to RHBs at home. He’s allowed a HR in each of his home starts this season and multiple HRs in five of the seven. Christian Villanueva (222 wRC+, .406 xwOBA, .494 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Manuel Margot (110 wRC+, .209 ISO), Hunter Renfroe (157 wRC+, .356 ISO) are all candidates to do some damage for less than $4K on DraftKings. Everyone in the lineup, including Wil Myers (92 wRC+, .210 ISO) is below $3K on FanDuel. This is one possible path to affording Justin Verlander.
Other tagged players: Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Cole Hamels, Manuel Margot Yankees send a dangerous lineup against a hit or miss pitcher in a power friendly environment
A trip to a National League park (although a very power friendly one) and the loss of Gary Sanchez has dropped the Yankees all the way down to 4.65 implied runs tonight, still best for fifth best on the board. Despite the upside in Vince Velasquez, he’s can be a hit or miss pitcher and players utilizing multiple lineups will probably want some exposure to this offense. There’s a 59 points platoon split in Veleasquez’s wOBA since last season (LHBs .369), but xwOBA closes the gap to 14 points (LHBs .335) with a below average ground ball rate against either side. Everyone in the lineup except Austin Romine (82) and Gregory Bird (102) are above a 115 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. All except Romine (.106) and Brett Gardner (.156) are above a .200 ISO. Giancarlo Stanton (134 wRC+, .303 ISO) has a 278 wRC+ and 60 Hard% over the last week. As always, he and Aaron Judge (169 wRC+, .329 ISO) are the top overall bats in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Austin Romine, Greg Bird, Vince Velasquez