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We have very limited value options on DraftKings tonight, but we have really good value on FanDuel. I will be attacking the Padres for value on both sites tonight. Hamels has a solid .317 wOBA against righties and he has a 24.7% strikeout rate, but outside of those two numbers, his numbers look bad against right-handed hitters. His ISO is .217 and his hard-hit rate is 47.1% with an average exit velocity of 89.4. The Padres are getting a massive ballpark upgrade in this game as well. Renfroe has a .233 ISO with a .358 wOBA against lefties this season. He also has a 58.1% hard hit rate with a 51.6% fly ball rate. This is a great overall situation: A hitter with high hard contact against a pitcher who allows a lot of hard contact, to go with a high probability of fly balls.
Underrated Spot
Mike Clevinger finds himself in an underrated spot on Monday night – an AL pitcher throwing in a DH-less NL park. The matchup and price tag could be better for Clevinger but the context is there for the Cleveland righty who has had a respectable season thus far (4.02 SIERA, 22.7 K%, 11.5 SwStr%). A matchup versus the Cardinals is slightly positive as St. Louis owns a strikeout rate versus RHP (23.4 K%) that is north of the league average (22.5 K%) and a wRC+ versus RHP (94) that is slightly below league average (96 wRC+). Clevinger is priced as SP2 on FanDuel and SP3 on DraftKings which should lead to decreased ownership.
High Variance
This is just an insane price tag on DraftKings ($6,600) for Velasquez who faces the strikeout heavy (23.5 K% vs RHP) Yankees offense at Citizens Bank Park where a DH will not be used. VV is best used in GPPs as this is a high variance spot for him as he has struggled with the long ball (1.41 HR/9; 14.3% HR/FB) throughout the course of his career and the Yankees have an extremely powerful offense (.220 ISO vs RHP). Still, VV is a tremendous GPP option as he’s shown strong strikeout upside (28.5 K%; 11.6 SwStr%) this season. His low price tag gives him plenty of opportunity fo be a positive value even if he gives up a HR or two.
Unrivaled Power
The scouting report on Duane Underwood is wholly unimpressive – control issues, a lifeless fastball, and somebody who projects best as an late inning reliever – so it’s not surprising to see the Dodgers with one of the highest implied run totals on the slate (4.8). When looking for teams to stack it’s important to target power and the Dodgers have plenty of power – they own the fourth highest ISO (.191) in the league versus right handed pitching. Individually, this is how the Dodgers top four lefties in the order look in terms of ISO vs RHP: Cody Bellinger .301, Joc Pederson .244, Max Muncy .202, Yasmani Grandal .213. That type of power makes the Dodgers a top stack whenever they face a RHP and an even better stack when they face a poor RHP.
Other tagged players: Max Muncy, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson Get Something Cheap
Admittedly, this is a strange looking guy to make the Core Plays list, but this is a really difficult slate to build lineups tonight. We have high end bats priced way up in just OK matchups, and with Verlander in there, there is no way to pay up for more than 1-2 bats at the most. San Diego gets a trip to Texas to face Cole Hamels. Though he has some strikeout ability against righties, and there’s always risk with the Padres, Hamels is allowing 47% hard hits and a .217 ISO against righties this season. Pirela should hit in the middle of the lineup and he has the lowest strikeout rate on this team at just 10.9% against lefties. At this salary on this slate, just a couple balls in play in this ballpark is all we can ask for.
#StackStros
Just like last year, the Astros are the best offense in the league against left-handed pitching (122 wRC+). Due to their strong skill-set against lefties, you can always look to the #StackStros when facing a southpaw, even when the pitcher is an above average one like in the case of J.A. Happ. While Happ has been great this year (3.32 SIERA, 27.9 K%) he has struggled big time with keeping the ball in the yard any time the opposition has been able to get it off the ground (13.3% HR/FB). That could mean big trouble against this potent Houston offense, especially if his 2018 groundball rate (46.6%) falls back in line with his career norms (40.5 GB%).
Other tagged players: Evan Gattis, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa Lefty Fillers
Shelby Miller is back and while he took some positive strides before his injury in 2017 he remains a guy to target with left handed bats. Miller has struggled with lefty sluggers throughout the course of his career as he’s allowed a .336 wOBA (4.73 xFIP) to them and has posted uninspiring strikeout (17.4%) and walk (10%) rates. It just so happens the Marlins have a couple of powerful lefties with great price tags (especially on DK) that make for great GPP fillers in Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich.
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich Scrape Pennies For Upside
It’s a challenging night to build lineups once you get Verlander in there. I’m willing to take on more risk than usual for upside at savings tonight. Cole Hamels does have enough strikeout ability to cause some trouble for the Padres, but Wil Myers is priced too low for his talent on FanDuel. He has a huge 50% hard hit rate against lefties since the start of 2017 and San Diego is travelling into the best hitting environment on this slate to face a pitcher who has allowed 47% hard hits to righties this season.
Value in the Infield
I would love to fit Francisco Lindor or Manny Machado into my lineups tonight but it’s tough to pass on this FanDuel value for Elvis Andrus. He’s less of a value on DK/FDRFT, but still a much more reasonable fit than Lindor tonight. We don’t know if Joey Lucchesi is healthy at this point, but even if he is, his lone skill against righties is a 24.1% strikeout rate and Andrus’ elite contact ability, with just a 12.9% K rate against lefties offsets that. Lucchesi has not shown an ability to limit hard contact to righties, and struggled badly in his first start off the DL. Andrus is an easy way to get a piece of a high upside offense tonight.
He Just Keeps Hitting
Nick Markakis is showing no signs of slowing down, and is the affordable way to get a piece of this Atlanta lineup on DK/FDRFT. Hitting behind Albies and Freeman, Markakis has been able to pile up RBI with his incredibly low 7.95 strikeout rate against righties and a high 28.6% line drive rate. You can’t ask for much more than a guy who hits the ball hard and often with runners on base. The Braves lefties are in position to take advantage of the 47% hard contact allowed by Tyler Mahle against lefties.
Fair Priced Outfielders
We have some good hitting outfields in the mid-range on FanDuel with Michael Brantlet and David Peralta coming at a significant savings from the other sites. Peralta gets to face Dan Straily, who just hasn’t been able to regain his old form. He has a 17.9% K rate to lefties this season along with high walks and 47% hard hits allowed. Peralta leads the Diamondbacks in ISO, wOBA and hard hits against right-handed pitching this season.
Fair Priced Outfielders
We have some good hitting outfields in the mid-range on FanDuel. Michael Brantley hits in between two of the most talented batters in the league, so his own skills sometimes go overlooked. It’s hard to argue with a 90% contact rate and 43% hard hits, and that is what we have for Brantley, facing John Gant who has allowed a ton of hard contact to lefties so far in his career.
Lots Of Bats To Pay For
There are a mess of high end bats with similar projections tonight. You can make the same case for Indians teammates Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez tonight facing John Gant, who has allowed an alarming 56% hard hit rate to lefties since last season. The shortstop eligibility for Lindor is enough to push him over the top for me. He hits for average, speed and power from the top of a loaded lineup. His 42% hard hits have him with a .271 ISO and .367 wOBA against righties this season and he leads the league in runs scored, a trend that should continue.
Lots Of Good, Only One Great
There is a lot of good pitching on this slate, but Justin Verlander still stands out well above the crowd. His 32% strikeout rate is the highest on the slate and 5th highest of all qualified starters this season. His 1.60 ERA is the lowest in all of baseball and his 14 straight quality starts show the consistency. With his low walks and low hard contact allowed, there aren’t many ways for things to go bad. He may allow a home run or two, but this is the mix of safety and upside worth paying for.
Travis Jankowski (sore quad) scratched Sunday; Matt Szczur replaces
Jankowski has been scratched from the San Diego Padres original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Sunday’s matchup with the San Francisco Giants due to quad soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Matt Szczur, who will play left field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which will bump everyone in the batting order, outside of the pitcher slot, up one batting position, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Padres order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Dereck Rodriguez on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Dennis Lin via Twitter