DFS Alerts
Tommy Pham scratched Sunday; Harrison Bader replaces
Pham has been scratched from the St. Louis Cardinals original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Sunday’s matchup with the due to a manager’s decision as part of a mental health day. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Harrison Bader, who will play center field and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Greg Garcia up to the two-hole, while Dexter Fowler shifts up one batting position to sixth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Cardinals order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Jhoulys Chacin on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Joe Trezza via Twitter
Too Cheap
Moncada is simply too cheap for his price tag and is a top play at a weak second base position. Moncada is a more talented hitter than his early season numbers indicate – via Baseball Savant he’s the owner of a .298 wOBA but a .333 xWOBA. He’s also top 20% in the league in terms of barrels, getting a barrel on the ball every 7.4 plate appearances. His average exit velocity of 92.1 mph is the 16th best in the league of hitters with at least 150 batted ball events.
The Cheapest Pitcher I'm willing to Play
I’m not really a huge McCarthy guy, but there is not any value at pitcher for me today and McCarthy has one of the best matchups on the board. He goes up against a BAL that has been terrible this year and strikes out at a huge clip (25% in the projected lineup). McCarthy on the other hand has a slightly above average xFIP (3.88) and strikes out guys at an average clip (18.5%). One thing to note though is that BAL will have the pitcher batting in this matchup. This is purely a matchup and pricing situation on McCarthy today. If you can pay up for better pitching then you should do so, but If you’re rolling with Coors bats or one of the top priced pitchers on the slate then McCarthy is your best bet to get a cheap arm.
Late Change
A late pitching change in Cincinnati has me looking at some Reds righties for value. Tyler Chatwood’s wife is in labor so the southpaw Mike Montgomery will get the nod for the Cubs. Montgomery isn’t a guy I want to target aggressively – realistically he’s probably around a league average starter – but Duvall and Peraza are cheap enough for consideration should they draw their usual lineup spots against LHP. Duvall particularly is a strong play for his price tag and gives you a ton of power upside as he owns a .238 ISO versus LHP for his career.
Other tagged players: Jose Peraza Avoid the Blisters, Rich!
This guy just can’t get over the blisters, but he might finally be turning a corner. When healthy, he has put up solid numbers over the last three years, but the WHEN HEALTHY part is the biggest problem area. He pitched six solid innings in his return against the Cubs last week, and he threw 90 pitches in that game. He should be full go for this start, and he draws the best possible landing spot against the Mets. In case you aren’t familiar, the Mets simply haven’t been able to hit left-handed pitching this year, with a .281 team wOBA that ranks dead last in the league and a .118 team wOBA that ranks ahead of only the Marlins. I’m a buyer on Hill given the matchup and relatively affordable price tag. The blister issue is a bigger concern than the matchup.
Today's Top Pitching Option
It seems like Chris Sale has seen his schedule match up with either Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole all year long, and we have Sale and Cole pitching again on the same day. They obviously two of the most talented pitchers in baseball, but Sale is my top choice today. The only negative is that he has to face off against a Mariners offense that doesn’t strike out a ton against LHP and has been hitting the ball well in the first two games of this series, and they do have some dangerous bats against LHP, with the red hot Nelson Cruz topping that list. However, there’s another side to this coin, as well. The Red Sox simply need innings out of Sale today, as their starters have only pitched a total of 7 1/3 innings over the last two games. That will get Sale a longer leash, and we know the upside is there in droves with a SIERA and xFIP in the mid-twos and a 35% strikeout rate on the year. Sale has the ability to produce big fantasy point totals in any matchup, and I think he will do that here.
A Great Value for a Lefty Masher
Even with Vargas scratched, I am still keeping Hernandez in my core plays. Jerry Blevins is also a lefty, and Hernandez has the leadoff spot for the Dodgers today. Enrique Hernandez is my favorite hitter from this team, as he still carries a value price tag and hits in the heart of the order against lefties. He also doesn’t get pinch hit for nearly as often these days when a RHP comes in, so that’s a plus. Even though he hasn’t been as elite against LHP this year, I still like the price/matchup combination.
Value City Against a Struggling Veteran
The bloom has fallen off the rose for everyone’s favorite lovable hurler. Colon has really struggled this month, getting hit hard far too often, and Vegas is starting to show some disrespect towards him with Minnesota owning a massive team total today. Colon is always going to pitch to contact, and sometimes said contact travels a long way. With his fly ball ways, sometimes the BABIP gods are in his favor, but I’m not banking on it right now. Fire up your power hitters here. If you are looking for a value play, I do like the potential that Logan Morrison brings to the table, as this is the type of pitcher that he can really excel against. Despite his mediocre season so far, I’m calling the long ball today.
Cheap Coors Exposure
Look, it’s generally not an easy thing to find cheap Coors exposure, but we have a spot with Brinson today where we can take advantage of a cheap bat in Coors. Brinson on the year has been hitting the ball decently (.405 CXwOBA and 327 air distance vs. RHP), but it just hasn’t really culminated in anything from a productivity standpoint. Marquez on the other side doesn’t really have fantastic numbers this year. Marquez owns a 4.43 xFIP, average walks and K’s and doesn’t really do anything spectacular that you really need to worry about. Brinson is going to be a stud one of these days, and a matchup in Coors is just the type of situation you can really take advantage of his low pricetag.
A Hot Bat in a Great Matchup
The Cardinals are not on my radar as a stack today, but I do love one hitter in particular. Jhoulys Chacin doesn’t really have much of a skill set against left-handed batters, and this is an elite matchup for Matt Carpenter. After struggling mightily through the first part of the season, Carpenter has finally picked up the pace with five home runs over the last ten days, and he could very well get five at-bats out of the leadoff spot today. The price tag is high but not outrageous, and I just love the way he profiles in this matchup. I am not on any of the other Cardinals today, but Carpenter cracks core play status.
Injury Risk
Rich Hill comes with inherent injury risk whenever he takes the mound due to recurring blister problems but a juicy matchup against the Mets (25.8 K%, 78 wRC+) is just too good to pass up. Hill did reach 90 pitches his last outing, which seems to be a reasonable projection for him again on Sunday and is enough rope to give him plenty of upside in this matchup. Injuries have kept Hill from being relevant so people forget he’s held a strikeout rate around 30% his last two full seasons – a 30% strikeout rate would place him in the top ten of qualifying starters this season. A lack of strong SP2 alternatives has me feeling ok with embracing Hill’s injury risk.
Huge Upside for the Price
Palka has a similar situation to the rest of the White Sox (which is where I’m looking for most of my value today). He strikes out at a huge clip (35% vs. RHP), but has one of the higher exit velocities in the league (92.9 vs RHP). When he have a situation where a pitcher doesn’t K batters a lot (Blackburn only at a 12.7% clip on the year) and doesn’t induce soft contact (5% vs. Lefties) then we know its all systems go. With Palka’s abilities, it’s not crazy to think that he has double dong potential in this matchup and Palka is probably my PT/$ favorite upside play on the entire slate.
Prevailing Talent
Gerrit Cole is the only pitcher that rivals Sale in terms of talent on Sunday but he’s also $900 more expensive than Sale on DraftKings where every little penny saved helps in rostering hitters on a day where there’s expected to be a ton of offense. I still prefer Sale on FanDuel where the price difference is negligable. Sale’s matchup versus the Mariners is a below average one (20.3 K%, 113 wRC+) but I’m fine betting on Sale’s talent (2.63 SIERA, 34.6 K%, 15.0 SwStr%) to prevail.
Huge K Guy Going Against a Low K Pitcher
One of the biggest worries we have about Moncada is that he strikes out at a huge clip (35% on the season vs. RHP), but that worry is almost entirely negated today going against blackburn who is only striking out guys at a 12% rate this season. When Moncada actually puts the ball in play, he’s one of the best hitters in the major owning a CXwOBA (.564) that is a full .230 higher than his wOBA on the year. He owns a Hard contact rate of 38.5% and a medium contact rate of 48.4%. Blackburn on the other hand, only induces soft contact at a 5.6% clip vs lefties this season. So, we know the ball is going to be put in play often and good contact is going to be made often. Don’t overthink this and just play Moncada who is only 3.7k on DK and is batting at the top of the order. The safety and upside are both huge with this guy.
Contact Generation
I always try to highlight a guy here that you can play in cash games across the industry. LoMo is that guy on Sunday as he’ll bat in the middle of a Twins lineup that will square off against Bartolo Colon in Minnesota. Colon leads the league with an 88.1% Contact % which simply means he doesn’t miss bats and allows a ton of balls in play. Despite a slow start to the 2018 season I still believe LoMo’s career numbers against right handed pitching (112 wRC+; .207 ISO) give him some nice upside in this matchup where generating contact should not be a problem.