DFS Alerts
Alex Cobb has allowed four HRs and 14 ERs over his last two starts
It’s hard to fathom that Alex Cobb is suddenly this bad, but he’s allowed at least three earned runs in nine of 12 starts this year, including 14 ERs and four HRs over his last two starts. The Braves have a 4.75 implied run line that’s fifth best on the board tonight and while there may not be a ton of value in high priced bats here, they’re all probably at least usable in the first half of the lineup. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .330 and .347 against Cobb since last season, though he does have a 53.3 GB% against RHBs over that span. The interest should be in the four left-handed bats to start the lineup though: Ender Inciarte (103 wRC+, .128 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Ozzie Albies (100 wRC+, .202 ISO), Freddie Freeman (144 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Nick Markakis (108 wRC+, .129 ISO). Albies has been slumping (11 wRC+ last seven days) and only Freeman is well above average against RHP, but there should be enough to handle Cobb in this lineup.
Other tagged players: Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Alex Cobb
Big Favorite with a High Floor
It’s strange to say, but Keuchel is basically a carbon-copy of CC Sabathia at this stage in his career. While he has a low strikeout rate, he has a high ground ball rate and an ability to induce a lot of soft and medium contact. The Royals have some good batters at the top of their lineup, but as a whole are an exploitable matchup. They have four hitters in their projected lineup with at least a 21% strikeout rate against southpaws. They also swing at pitches early in the count, so don’t be surprised if Keuchel is able to pitch seven or more innings.
Pitching is Thin Tonight
Don’t throw up when I say this, but dollar-for-dollar, Gray is my favorite pitching option of the slate. He may have an ERA close to six, but he owns a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 8%. He draws an elite matchup against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has a .312 xwOBA and a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. He should get plenty of run support and thanks to that high ERA, he is underpriced across the industry.
Rays bullpen antics could backfire against the Yankees
The Yankees have a 4.4 implied run line that’s somewhere near the middle of the board to account for the park downgrade in Tampa Bay. The Rays will open with Ryne Stanek and then likely counter with Ryan Yarbrough. These shenanigans are less likely to a lot of effect on a Yankee lineup that hits pitchers that throw with either arm pretty good. Giancarlo Stanton (205 wRC+, .437 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is a near must if he’s likely to get a couple of shots at a LHP and doesn’t fall off the board against RHP either. Aaron Judge (118 wRC+, .203 ISO) may benefit from facing the RHP first. Only Brett Gardner (58 wRC+, .020 ISO) and Didi Gregorius (64 wRC+, .099 ISO) are the only two batters in the lineup below a 110 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year and they’re the ones who will be facing the RHP first.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Ryne Stanek, Ryan Yarbrough Dodger lineup has strong value at the top, though the bottom may make Wheeler more attractive
The Dodgers have just a 4.06 implied run line in one of the most negative run environments on the board against a pitcher who may be better than his surface numbers, but even that run line is good enough to place them on the middle of the board. The lineup seems to be holding back some, perhaps making Zack Wheeler a bit more attractive with their lefty platoon bats at the bottom of the order, but there are certainly two bats at the top of the lineup players should like against a pitcher who has allowed batters from either side a wOBA and xwOBA within six points of .350 since last season. Joe Pederson (137 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Max Muncy (161 wRC+, .330 ISO) bat one two, the former costing just $2.4K on FanDuel. Both still may be decent values above $4K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Max Muncy, Zack Wheeler Daily Bullpen Alert: Most of the attack-able pens have a Coors link today.
There are three bullpens below a 3.00 FIP over the last month. The Yankees (2.50) and Astros (2.52) are the only teams to combine that with a 20+ K-BB% over that span. The Houston bullpen has a ridiculous 27.9 K-BB% over the last 30 days. The Giants have a 2.67 FIP and 15.6 K-BB%. The Phillies (22.4 K-BB%) and Padres (20.3 K-BB%) have a 3.7 FIP each over the last month. These are generally bullpens to avoid tonight and with the exception of maybe the Phillies (vs the Nationals), these are not likely spots players are looking much towards bats anyway. On the opposite end, the Mets have a 5.25 FIP, worst in the majors by more than a quarter run over the last month, along with an 8.6 K-BB%. They’re just coming off a difficult series at Coors, but haven’t been kind to Zack Wheeler this season. He does average nearly six innings per start though. The Royals (4.93 FIP, 9.0 K-BB%) and Rockies (4.88 FIP, 6.4 K-BB%) are the next worse pens. The Royals just traded their closer and are throwing Danny Duffy against the Astros. This is certainly a spot to attack. The Rockies have their best pitcher on the mound (Jon Gray) and though it’s still Coors, they’re facing the Marlins. Wei-Yin Chen is the only pitcher averaging less than five innings per start on this board. The bullpen has a 4.00 FIP and 8.4 K-BB% over the last week, but is likely a non-factor in decisions to attack a weak lefty at Coors.
Friday's pitching: the contact managers
While tonight’s slate does not offer much in the way of high strikeout arms, there are a number of quality contact managers in usable spots tonight. No pitcher on the board comes within two miles per hour of C.C. Sabathia’s (83.7 mph aEV) and a performance where he struck out 10 of 33 Rays through 7.2 innings in his last start has his season xwOBA at .294 right now. He hadn’t previously struck out more than seven and while he has now completed seven innings in two of his last three starts, he’s only faced more than 25 batters one other time, but has thrown 100 pitches in back to back starts, the only two times he’s done that this season. While expectations can hardly be the same against the Rays again, he does get the park upgrade against a struggling team (a 61 wRC+, 29.9 K%, 8.1 HR/FB and -1.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week) that has a 24.2 K% vs LHP this year now. While Sabathia’s strikeout rate (18.8%) remains below average for the season, his 10.6 SwStr% is his highest since 2012. An $8.9K price tag on DraftKings may be a tad aggressive. Dallas Keuchel also has a below average strikeout rate this year (just 18.2% with an 8.8 SwStr%). He still generates ground balls at a 55% rate and may be in the top run prevention spot on the board in the most negative run environment. He costs around $8.5K against a Kansas City offense with a 46 wRC+ and 4.1 HR/FB last seven days that are both league lows, along with a 17.2 K-BB%. They have a sub-90 wRC+ both on the road and against LHP this season with more strikeouts against southpaws (21.3%). Sean Newcomb is the second highest priced pitcher on either site and has a great matchup against the Orioles (73 wRC+, 18.7 K-BB% on the road, 83 wRC+ vs LHP), who lose their DH tonight. The thing to realize though, is that this may be a matchup more dependent on contact management than strikeouts. Newcomb has a just a 20.5 K% over the last month and a league average 10.6 SwStr% for the season. The Orioles have just a 21.8 K% vs LHP. However, his .275 xwOBA is best on the board and his 2.9% Barrels/BBE is the only mark below 5% on the entire board. Newcomb has also recorded a seventh inning out just twice this year. He may give you six shutout innings, but with just five or six strikeouts. Zack Wheeler has a league average strikeout rate (22.1%) and has the second lowest aEV on the board (85.8 mph). He’s also gone at least six innings in nine of 13 starts. Only six pitchers on the board with more than three starts have averaged more innings per start this year and all cost more. This is the profile of a pitcher who generally costs more than $8K. There may be reasons Wheeler still costs less than that, but he’s certainly too cheap at just $6.9K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel, CC Sabathia Friday's pitching: the strikeouts
As a slate with 23 of 28 teams between 3.44 and 4.76 implied runs would suggest, everything is mediocre on Friday. There are no standout arms and very few that it might be entirely wrong to at least take a shot with tonight. There are just four pitchers above a 25% strikeout rate tonight and none of them are below a .295 xwOBA. Patrick Corbin has the highest strikeout rate (31.4%) and the highest price tag on the board. The strikeout rate has dipped below 30% over the last month (27.7%), but that’s still second best on the board and has at least seven Ks in all but three starts this year. However, he’s allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts and is in a tough spot in Pittsburgh against an offense with just a 9.9 K-BB% against LHP. He may also have weather concerns tonight. The second highest strikeout rate on the board (27.6%) comes from Coors and a pitcher with a 5.89 ERA. Jon Gray has allowed at least four runs in five of seven starts at home this year, but none in the other two. Both his ground ball rate (52.3%) and strikeout rate (28.5%) are higher at home this season. His home BABIP of .404 is simply unsustainable and while no matchup at Coors is ever ideal, the Marlins (82 wRC+, 16.4 K-BB% vs RHP) are about as good as one can hope for, especially at a cost below $8K on either site (just $6.8K on FanDuel). The third highest strikeout rate comes from Jack Flaherty (26.7%), who costs $9.8K on DraftKings in a neutral at best matchup in Milwaukee. He has failed to go beyond five innings in three of his last four starts and five of his nine this year. While he has ERA estimators in the mid-threes, well above his 2.66 ERA due to a strand rate above 80%, he’s not at all a bad pitcher, but perhaps over-priced. He and Corbin are tied with a .296 xwOBA though, best among the 25+ K% group. The last pitcher above a 25% strikeout rate also may have weather issues in Cleveland tonight. He’s also started just two games (both against the Twins) with an 8.5 SwStr%. Shane Bieber has exceeded a 20 K-BB% at every stop in the minors, but that’s mostly due to a walk rate below 4%, while he’s started just nine games above AA now. That said, you don’t accomplish that without a strikeout rate at least a bit above average. He’s gone 5.2 innings in both major league starts and more than six in seven of 12 minor league starts this year. The matchup is great from a run prevention standpoint against a low powered Detroit offense (8.6 HR/FB on the road, 8.1 HR/FB vs RHP), which allows him to make sense for just $6.6K on FanDuel, but he’s already up to $8.7K on DraftKings against an offense that strikes out less than most (21.5% vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Jon Gray, Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber Offensive Production
The Indians have the second highest implied run total on the slate behind the Rockies so it makes sense to try to mine some value from their lineup. Chisenhall was scratched from the lineup on Wednesday and if he’s unable to go again on Friday it should mean a higher spot in the order for Kipnis. Kipnis has been terrible this year offensively but has had success against righties throughout his career (115 wRC+; .166 ISO) and should have a couple of run producing opportunities on Friday night.
Other tagged players: Lonnie Chisenhall
Pivot or Pairing
Grossman has either been leading off or batting fifth for the Twins their last handful of games and he’s a strong value option on Friday night should he find himself in a favorable spot in the order once again. Robbie’s numbers versus lefties are far from eye-popping (106 wRC+; .121ISO) but the switch hitter has had more success versus south paws than righties throughout the course of his career and will square off against one in Mike Minor at Target Field. Calhoun is my preferred cheap option in the OF but Grossman makes for a fine pivot or pairing if looking to load up elsewhere.
He's Back
Calhoun is going to be one of the chalkier value plays on Friday night as he’s hit HRs in back-to-back games for the Angels and still remains dirt cheap across the industry. It’s not illogical to think that Calhoun’s oblique was hurting his offensive numbers for the early part of the season as he’s recorded four hits and two HRs in three games since his return from the DL.
Coors SP
I don’t recall another season where pitchers throwing in Coors have made their way into cash game discussion as often as they have this year. An early look at roster construction for Friday night’s slate has me looking toward Gray or Luis Castillo as SP2 on multi-SP sites. Both guys are pitching in brutal parks but Gray has the much better matchup and has the better advanced metrics. Gray owns the second lowest SIERA (3.20) of Friday night’s probable starters (ignoring Shane Bieber and his 11.1 IP) to go along with the third highest SwStr% (13.2%).
Other tagged players: Luis Castillo Low Strikeouts
Keuchel has been a tough guy to figure out this year but his price tags (especially on DK/FDRAFT) make him tough to pass up on a night devoid of strong pitching options. Don’t expect a ton of strikeout upside from Keuchel here (his 2018 strikeout rate of 18.2% is only slightly below his career rate of 19.4%) but he has a good chance to eat some innings against a very poor Royals offense (87 wRC+ vs LHP). In his last start, Keuchel faced these same Royals and allowed two unearned runs over six innings pitched. I think a similar fantasy result (20-25 DK points) is likely on Friday night which makes him a strong option for cash games.
Grab A Free Bat
Home runs in back-to-back games does not mean that everything is suddenly fixed for Calhoun after his awful start to the year, but we can hope that his DL stint allowed him to clear his head as much as heal his oblique. He is certainly at risk for some easy fly ball outs tonight, but he has always been able to ramp up his power against fly ball pitchers, and he gets an extreme fly baller with below average strikeouts tonight in Marco Estrada. This is the type of salary that is so low even a zero won’t ruin your night, and to be able get home run upside at this price allows you more freedom to spend up for the must play big bats like Arenado tonight.
So Many Values
FanDuel is absolutely loaded with strong hitters in good matchups in the $3,000-$3,500 range. You should have no trouble finding what you need to fill out your lineups after getting your Colorado bats and other favorites locked in. In the outfield, you can dip down to the low $2k range with guys like Joc Pederson and Kole Calhoun, but I would prefer to get up to this David Peralta, NIck Markakis, Andrew McCutchen range. I’ll side slightly with Peralta, though they are all very close. Ivan Nova has an obscenly low 9.6% strikeout rate against lefties this season while Peralta has a team leading .249 ISO and .378 wOBA, piling up 54% hard hits against righties with below average strikeouts.