DFS Alerts
The Top Bat from the Top Offenses
It doesn’t get any more obvious than “play the Houston bats” against Ian Kennedy. The Kansas City starter is a massive fly ball pitcher who isn’t getting any better at this stage of his career, and Houston’s lineup is chalk full of power bats. In digging into their offensive splits a little more, I was a bit surprised to see that Houston’s best wOBA numbers against right-handed pitching this year don’t come from the sources that you would expect in Carlos Correa and George Springer; they come from Jose Altuve (who is known for his ability to hit lefties) and Alex Bregman (who often goes over-looked in this dangerous offense). I like the way Bregman matches up against a homer-prone pitcher in Ian Kennedy, so he is my favorite hitter from the Astros this evening, but I will absolutely be considering plenty of hitters from this lineup.
Value Power
It feels SUPER weird to consider Valbuena as a top overall hitter on this slate but context is everything. Lineup construction has me locking in high priced starting pitching which means I need value somewhere and Valbuena is a guy that provides that + roster flexibility due to multi-positional eligibility. Valbuena has had a tough season offensively (outside of his two HR game two games ago) but has shown a strong skill-set versus RHP during the latter parts of his career (owned an ISO north of .200 vs RHP from 2014-2017).
A Safe SP at a Good Value
If you’re looking for a nice value on the mound that should provide a high floor and allow you to fit in the bats you want, look no further than Andrew Suarez, pitching at home against a weak Padres offense in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. Suarez brings to the table a respectable 23.5 K%, which when coupled with his excellent control (only a 4.9% BB-rate) makes Suarez stand out as a safe option. The Padres have a 25.1& team K%, and currently have the fourth-lowest Vegas-Implied run total on the board. Earlier this season in a start against San Diego, Suarez went 7IP with 5 Ks and only 2 runs allowed, and we have no reason not to expect similar results this afternoon.
Cheap Elite Bat in a Slump
Brian Dozier is a perfect example of a great player who happens to be in a slump, but we know that he’s going to come out of it sooner or later. Since the beginning of last year, Dozier owns a .201 ISO and .335 wOBA vs. RHP and these numbers are similar to what he’s done throughout the course of his career. He draw a matchup against a pitcher who has been trash since the beggining of 2017. Gallarado owns a .373 wOBA and .224 ISO vs. righties and struggles with striking guys out and hard contact. The Twins own one of the highest implied team totals on the board today at 5.09, which should give Dozier a pretty big bump for RBI’s and runs. Overall this is clearly a misprice based on how good Dozier is and you should take advantage.
Start of Friday's DET-CLE game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians on Friday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Indians have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Shane Bieber not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the teams are likely in store for a lengthy delay, which increases the chances of a postponement if officials opt to call off the contest prior to storms clearing the area.
As reported by: John Alfes via Twitter
Cheap Is OK At SP2
As the day moves on, I’m finding more reason to spend down at pitcher on DK/FDRFT. The high end bats bring more to love than the high end pitching, so I’m landing on a lot of Mike Minor lineups. The difference in his skills vs the guys nearly double his price is not big enough to justify the gap. He’s not safe, but none of these guys are safe. Tonight’s Minnesota lineup has a 23.5% K rate with a low .139 ISO and .3147 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Minor doesn’t beat himself with walks, so everything has to go against him to end in disaster. At this salary on this slate, we don’t need a huge game here, we just need something respectable and that’s what I’m looking for.
One west coast offense projected to be in a good spot
The Angels (4.6) are the only west coast team (of the four) that Vegas projects above four runs tonight. Marco Estrada has allowed just three total runs over his last 18.2 innings, but has exceeded five strikeouts just four times this year and has allowed at least three runs in nine of 14 starts. Further bad news is that he has a reverse platoon split (RHBs .369 wOBA/.340 xwOBA since last season, LHBs below .300) and the Angels have a pair at the top who hit same-handed pitching extremely well: Mike Trout (190 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Justin Upton (123 wRC+, .227 ISO). Ian Kinsler (86 wRC+, .186 ISO) is also worth a look in the leadoff spot for less than $4K, but there’s not much going on behind that.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler
Several games with potential weather issues tonight
It is far from a quiet June night on the MLB landscape tonight. Kevin identifies several games where weather could be a problem tonight. Players can read the entire lengthy report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers won’t want to miss Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30, where he’ll break down the latest.
Three potentially low-owned, high upside bats against a pitcher with platoon issues in Milwaukee
Jack Flaherty has one of the highest price tags and strikeout rates on the board, but his exceptional slider isn’t as effective against LHBs (.345 wOBA, .356 xwOBA career). The Brewers have just a 4.18 implied run line, but three exceptional left-handed hitters in the top half of the lineup: Eric Thames (133 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Christian Yelich (136 wRC+, .199 ISO) and Travis Shaw (133 wRC+, .275 ISO) could all come with low ownership. Ownership projections are available to premium subscribers on both the Projected Ownership page and via LineupHQ.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Jack Flaherty All chalk infield at Coors against another marginal lefty
The Rockies have a 6.58 implied run line that’s a full run above any other team tonight. It seems like they’ve faced a mediocre lefty at Coors every day this week and tonight is no different. Right-handed batters have a .386 wOBA against Wei-Yin Chen this season with seven HRs. Nolan Arenado (220 wRC+, .401 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Trevor Story (156 wRC+, .350 ISO) are the chalk left-side of the infield yet again. DJ LeMahieu (143 wRC+, .243 ISO) and the suddenly surging Ian Desmond (105 wRC+, .238 ISO) may be the chalk right-side as well. Charlie Blackmon (129 wRC+, .161 ISO) does not come off the board in the middle of all that against LHP.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu, Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackmon, Wei-Yin Chen Miami has one of the lowest run lines you'll see at Coors, but still may be worth a hedge bet
The Miami bats have been priced up for Coors. They’re facing one of the more interesting pitchers on the board tonight in Jon Gray, who may appear in a lot of lineups due to his high upside, low cost and the quality of opposition. A 4.42 implied run line is one of the lowest you’ll see at Coors, but it’s still top half of the board and Gray has allowed at least four runs in five of seven starts at home. Even those favoring him may want to hedge in a lineup or two with at least some exposure to Derek Dietrich (120 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and/or Justin Bour (144 wRC+, .254 ISO). J.T. Realmuto (130 wRC+, .216 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .140 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year, though Brian Anderson does have a 117 wRC+ and .342 xwOBA against same-handed pitching over that span.
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich, Jon Gray, J.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson Rangers get a park downgrade, but still a positive run environment against a pitcher who struggles against LHBs
Fernando Romero has some talent, but has struggled of late and LHBs have had his number with not just a .358 wRC+ this season, but a .393 xwOBA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a 40% hard hit rate. Minnesota is not Texas and actually suppresses LH power a bit, but it’s still a positive overall run environment. Shin-Soo Choo (115 wRC+, 200 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top overall daily fantasy bat in the lineup and up to nearly $5K on DraftKings. Nomar Mazara (104 wRC+, .185 ISO) has a 198 wRC+ over the last week. Joey Gallo (125 wRC+, .319 ISO) has the top wRC+ and ISO in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Fernando Romero, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara Four Houston bats above a 150 wRC+ against LHP last calendar year, three above .230 ISO, but not who you might think
Right-handed batters have a .347 wOBA against Danny Duffy since last season and that’s backed by a .350 xwOBA. Twenty-seven of the 30 HRs he’s allowed since last season have been surrendered to RHBs and he’ll face nine of them tonight in Houston. Despite the most negative run environment in play tonight, the Astros still have a 5.42 implied run line that’s third best on the board. Marwin Gonzalez (99 wRC+.151 ISO) is the only batter among the first eight in the order below a 120 wRC+ against LHP over the last calendar year. The three highest ISOs are not who you think: Alex Bregman (152 wRC+, .238 ISO), Evan Gattis (120 wRC+, .256 ISO) and Max Stassi (170 wRC+, .288 ISO). George Springer (156 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Carlos Correa (182 wRC+, .194 ISO) makes it four above a 150 wRC+ against southpaws over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Max Stassi, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Danny Duffy Weather may be the only thing that stop the Tribe at home
Mike Fiers hasn’t been terrible this season (20.2 K%, 3.38 ERA, 4.11 FIP last 30 days), but has the misfortune of running into the Indians tonight (123 wRC+ and 29.1 Hard-Soft% at home). The Tribe has the top implied run line outside Coors tonight (5.56) and only the weather may be able to stop them tonight (Kevin’s early forecast is ORANGE/YELLOW, but with winds blowing out 15 mph to left). Fiers at one time had a substantial reverse platoon split, but that’s disappeared. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .340 and .357 wOBA and xwOBA since last season. The first six batters in this lineup could all return favorable lines for players. All have at least a 110 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Lonnie Chisenhall (110 wRC+, .133 ISO) is the only one below a .185 ISO over that span, but provides salary relief at $3.2K or less against an expensive first four. Each of those first four, however, exceed a .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Jose Ramirez (162 wRC+, .361 ISO) has become one of the top overall bats on the board on any given day.
Other tagged players: Lonnie Chisenhall, Mike Fiers Wade LeBlanc completely shut down Boston in his last start, they have an implied run line above five in the rematch
The Boston Red Sox have a 121 wRC+ and 18.4 K% at home in a very hitter friendly park. From that standpoint, their 5.05 implied run line (fourth best on the board) is not at all surprising. They also have just an 80 wRC+ and 17.2 K-BB% against LHP this year. This particular left-handed pitcher had the following line against the Red Sox in his last outing: 7.2 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 0 BB – 9 K – 24 BF. It’s not James Paxton, that’s Wade LeBlanc. He’s been a find for the Mariners, but has an 88.2 LOB% and Boston is a significant park downgrade from Seattle. He’s also thrown more than 85 pitches just two other times before his most recent start. Despite LeBlanc’s reverse split (LHBs.331 wOBA, RHBs .280 wOBA since last season), which xwOBA wipes out by the way (batters from either side within three points of .335), the thing to do here is probably the same thing to do whenever the Red Sox face a LHP, especially at home. Fire up Mookie Betts (173 wRC+, .270 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (156 wRC+, .318 ISO). Consider a side of Xander Bogaerts (131 wRC+, .377 xwOBA, .147 ISO).
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Wade LeBlanc