DFS Alerts
The Sneaky Stack of the Night
The Giants are never a sexy team to stack, but they do make some sense as potentially affordable options tonight, with the primary benefit being that you can fit a Giants stack in a lineup alongside Max Scherzer on the mound. Tyson Ross is a reasonably skilled pitcher, but there have been concerns about his velocity of late, and he does have the tendency to get shelled from time to time. Left-handers have hit him very hard this season, posting a .361 wOBA and 41% hard contact rate, so stacking up the Giants’ cheap lefties is a great way to go. Hello, Crawford, Panik, and Sandoval! Buster Posey, as always, can also be considered, especially on DK where you need to roster a catcher.
Other tagged players: Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, Pablo Sandoval
Yankees still have highest run line outside Coors on early slate, despite facing top pitcher
Even facing James Paxton, the Yankees command a 4.57 implied run line at home, tied for highest on the early two game slate on FanDuel and behind the two teams at Coors on DraftKings this afternoon. Paxton is coming off his worst start of the season against the Red Sox (2.1 IP – 6 H – 6 R – 5 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 4 K – 16 BF). He’d previously completed seven innings in six of eight starts. His 31.2 K% and 13.2 SwStr% are best on the early board. However, his 42.7% 95+ mph EV is highest for the entire day. That said, players are rarely going to see him for less than $10K and if playing multiple lineups on DraftKings, you’re going to have some exposure. Paxton has a reverse split. RHBs have just a .258 wOBA against him since last year with xwOBA increasing that to just .277. While LHBs have a .304 wOBA, xwOBA closes the gap at .281, while the 52.8 GB% and 24.1 Hard% are both superior against same-handed hitters. Even on a four game slate, it’s difficult to recommend anything but the top bats against Paxton: Aaron Judge (113 wRC+, .184 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Giancarlo Stanton (211 wRC+, .446 ISO) and, all the way up to the fifth spot, Gleyber Torres (164 wRC+, .292 ISO). Clint Frazier (122 wRC+, .256 ISO) is in the leadoff spot, just $200 removed from $3.5K on either site, but his xwOBA against LHP is 97 points lower than his actual (.257 – .355).
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, James Paxton, Clint Frazier
A Viable SP #2 Choice
Suter will never wow you with his upside potential, but he’s a serviceable SP #2 choice on a short seven game Thursday evening slate. The Cardinals are not as imposing of a matchup as they might seem on paper, especially since the lineup can’t seem to stay healthy. Now Jose Martinez is dealing with a shoulder injury, and a potential absence from him really makes this lineup thin. Suter doesn’t walk anyone and throws a lot of strikes, so there’s a clear path to a quality start here. I’ll do everything I can to get Scherzer on the single pitcher sites tonight, but Suter is in play on DK/FDRAFT as your second choice.
The Top Pitching Option By a Mile
He is miles ahead of the field when it comes to pitching options tonight, as the other aces like Carlos Martinez and Madison Bumgarner have real question marks right now. Scherzer does not have those question marks, with his amazing overall profile, massive striekout rate, and immense upside. He has also held right-handed hitters to a .196 wOBA this season, which is remarkable. That’s a great recipe for success against a righty-heavy Orioles lineup, and Scherzer will absolutely be a core piece for me in all my lineup builds this evening.
Oakland a Strong Stack vs Giolito
Lucas Giolito has everything you look for in a pitcher to stack against – the lowest K% on the slate at 14.5%, the third-highest BB% on the slate at 11.2%, and little to no success against either side of the plate, allowing a .425 wOBA to LH hitters and a .351 wOBA to righties. The batted-ball data is also encouraging, as Giolito has only managed 13.5% and 14.6% soft-contact percentages to LH and RH, respectively. This all shapes up well for an Oakland team looking to stay hot after scoring 12 runs (including 5 HRs) yesterday. Lefties like Matt Olson and Jed Lowrie profile best here, but RH hitters are in play as well. Khris Davis did miss yesterday’s game with the stomach bug, so keep an eye on his status as you plan out your Oakland stacks.
Other tagged players: Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis
The Clear Top Stack of the Night
This isn’t exactly breaking news, but Matt Harvey just isn’t any good these days, especially against left-handed hitters. Lefties have posted a .393 wOBA and 43.4% hard contact rate against him this season, and his numbers last year were even worse than that. The Cubs have been playing better baseball of late and look to be getting into a summer groove, and they will likely send out five left-handed bats against Harvey this evening. Of the lefty bats, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ have the top ISO numbers on the team, and both are great GPP plays as one-offs for home run potential. The Cubs stack obviously has a ton of upside in the event Harvey implodes, as well.
Other tagged players: Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist Don't Overthink It
Yes, he’s expensive, but he should be expensive. He is so much better than everyone else, it’s not even fair. He has the highest strikeout rate in the league and lowest SIERA by a wide margin. In 15 starts, he has double digit strikeouts 10 times, and 7+ K in all but one start. He is completely matchup proof, and doesn’t need much help, but he will still get it from a right-handed heavy Orioles lineup. His strikeout rate is a ridiculous 45% against right-handed batters. Honestly, 45%? Just play the guy.
Start of Wednesday's MIL-PIT game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Pirates have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Chad Kuhl and Brent Suter not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game should still be able to be played if the teams are patient enough to wait through this initial weather stoppage.
As reported by: Adam Berry via Twitter
One Time Royals... One Time
The Royals always let me down in these situations, but I am going right back to this dry well. They draw an elite matchup against Austin Bibens-Dirkx, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starter in baseball. He has also allowed a .376+ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The one through four stack is awfully intriguing. Whit Merrifield brings stolen base upside to the table, while Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, and Salvador Perez all boast at least a .380+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.
Keep Stacking in Coors
The Mets are my favorite stack on the board tonight. We stacked them on Monday with success, then we stacked the Rockies last night with success, so we might as well go back to the Mets. Chad Bettis is a low-strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .340+ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Mets see a massive ballpark bump playing in Coors and each of the first five hitters in their projected lineup has a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching — Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, Todd Frazier, and Domonic Smith.
Best Pitcher on the Board
Kuhl doesn’t get much credit in DFS, but he’s had a respectable season for the Pirates. In his 14 starts, he has a 4.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. While he has a high fly-ball rate, that’s not exactly a negative in this big ballpark. He draws a decent matchup against the Brewers, who have five batters in their projected lineup with a strikeout rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching. Kuhl is far from a core target, but he’s viable as an SP2 if you are building multiple tournament lineups.
Great Matchup for this Underpriced Pitcher
Price is slowly starting to look like the Price of old. After a slow start to the season, he has turned it on over the last month of play. In his last two starts, he has a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 37%. The velocity is back, which gives him a high ceiling. He draws an elite matchup against the Twins, whose projected lineup has a .289 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 23% against southpaws. The fact that he’s pitching on the road should help keep his ownership in check.
Lonnie Chisenhall (calf soreness) scratched Wednesday; Rajai Davis replaces
Chisenhall has been scratched from the Cleveland Indians original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Wednesday’s matchup with the Chicago White Sox due to bilateral calf soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Rajai Davis, who will play center field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes, and Tyler Naquin all up one batting position, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Indians order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Reynaldo Lopez at home this afternoon.
As reported by: John Alfes via Twitter Keep Playing The Top Spots
There are plenty of ways to go tonight, but I don’t see much reason to stay away from the top of the Mets lineup at Coors Field. Cabrera hits in a prime spot in the order, he makes contact, he hits the ball hard, and he has the added bonus of being a switch hitter when we get into the bullpen. His reasonable salary and .224 ISO/.349 wOBA against righties make him a strong play in all formats.
Punting With This Guy
If you’re not paying up for a top shortstop, I think punting shortstop actually makes sense on this slate. Kiner-Falefa is set to catch tonight, and this will be his first time catching a Major League game. If the Royals don’t test him tonight, I would be absolutely shocked. Adalberto Mondesi doesn’t have flashy stats, and he’s not a great hitter from what we’ve seen at the Major League level so far. With that said, we just need him to get on base tonight. He has 10 stolen bases in 29 games in AAA this season and had five steals in 25 Major League games last season. I like his stolen base upside, and as a punt, I just need one stolen base.
