DFS Alerts

Jacob Stallings (back) scratched Saturday.

Jacob Stallings (back) scratched Saturday.

Austin Meadows (anxiety) scratched Saturday.

Austin Meadows (anxiety) scratched Saturday.

Thairo Estrada (leg) has been scratched Wednesday.

Status Note: Anthony Rendon will begin serving a 4 game suspension tonight and has been ruled out.

Lineup note: Joey Bart (back) scratched Saturday.

Lineup note: Joey Bart (back) scratched Saturday.

Jorge Polanco (knee) to be placed on IL

Knee tendinitis cost Jorge Polanco some games towards the end of last season and although the Twins had hoped he would be ready in time to start the season, but that will not be the case. In 445 PAs last season, Polanco had a 119 wRC+ and was worth 1.8 fWAR. Nick Gordon should pick up the slack at Second Base in his absence. Gordon had a 111 wRC+ in 443 PAs last year and was worth 1.5 fWAR, so it doesn’t appear the Twins should suffer much, though Gordon bats solely from the left-hand side, while Polanco is a switch-hitter.

Max Stassi (hip) placed on 10 day IL

A lingering hip issue has forced Max Stassi to the 10-day IL. Despite a career high 365 PAs last season, Stassi disappointed with just a 63 wRC+ and was worth 0.0 fWAR. Logan O’Hoppe and Matt Thaiss are expected to share catching duties while Stassi is out. O’Hoppe made his major league debut last year (16 PAs) straight from AA, where he had a 144 wRC+. Thaiss has been up and down since 2019. He has an 81 wRC+ and negative fWAR value in 278 career PAs.

Jared Walsh (headaches) to begin season on IL

Jared Walsh is expected to receive treatment for headaches and insomnia, according to his manager, and will miss the start of the season. Walsh was coming off an oblique injury that limited him to 122 PAs with a 38 wRC+ in the second half of last season, but appeared to be recovering well with an 1.198 OPS in 35 Spring Training ABs. Free Agent signee Brandon Drury could get the most work at First Base while Walsh is out. While the Angels will now lean extremely right-handed, Drury has been a late career breakout with a 122 wRC+ over the last two seasons (656 PA).

The start of Astros-Yankees Game 4 will be delayed Sunday due to rain

Game update: The start of Astros-Yankees Game 4 will be delayed Sunday due to rain

Rebound Expected for Top Projected Pitcher on the Board

The likely AL Cy Young winner was blown up by the Mariners in the first game of the divisional round (4 IP – 6 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 3 K – 21 BF) and struck out a similar number of Yankees in his only start against them, but with much better overall results (7 IP – 1 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 3 K – 27 BF). The strikeout rate increased late in the season, finishing at 27.8% (23.4 K-BB%) to go along with an excellent contact profile that included a 19.7 IFFB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE and just a 34.8% hard hit rate. His 1.77 ERA was well below estimators ranging from a 2.49 FIP to a 3.23 xFIP. He was breaking estimators with a .240 BABIP and 80.5 LOB% that weren’t even career bests until running into the Mariners, but has had a full week to contemplate his failures in that effort. All of Verlander’s pitches grade extremely strongly by Statcast measures (RV) with the Yankees struggling only with the slider (-0.17 wSL/C) among those in the second half. Verlander also has one of the top defenses in the league behind him (25 Runs Prevented, .268 BABIP allowed). The most expensive pitcher on the board is also the top projected one. Verlander projects as the second best value on either site, but with just 0.2 P/$ separating first from third on DraftKings and even less (0.02 P/$) separating the top three projected FanDuel values. The closed roof in Houston makes the park a slightly negative run environment, though it’s also slightly negative if open.

The Yankees own the lowest team run total on the board (2.97) by half a run, while RHBs (.243 wOBA, .276 xwOBA) at least stood a chance against Verlander, while he dominated LHBs (.201 wOBA, .235 xwOBA), of which the Yankees have very few anyway. Aaron Judge (217 wRC+, .384 ISO vs RHP this season) is still the second best projected bat on the board, but is also the only Yankee projecting among the top 10. No Yankee projects among the top 10 FanDuel values, though you’ll find three among the top 10 projected DraftKings value. Harrison Bader (90 wRC+, .117 ISO), Marwin Gonzalez (60 wRC+, .143 ISO) and Jose Trevino (74 wRC+, .120 ISO), the expected bottom of the Yankee order, all cost $2.5K or less.

Top Projected Bat in the Top Offense

Jameson Taillon has faced just three batters since the regular season ended, one in which he finished with a 3.91 ERA that was within one-third of a run of all estimators, a 4.20 xERA the only one above four. Striking out batters at a near average rate (20.7%), it was really the elite control (4.4 BB%) that was the star of his season. On June 23rd, Taillon was blown up by a Houston offense (5.2 IP – 6 ER – 2 HR – 0 BB – 3 K – 28 BF) that had a 107 wRC+ and 20.4 K% vs RHP, but a 123 wRC+ and 14.4 HR/FB at home this year. Taillon threw a number of pitches (five) more than 10% of the time, but only his four-seam more than 20%. He did have a couple of marginally graded pitches by Statcast measures (slider, cutter) that the Astros did have some issues with in the second half of the season (-0.15 SL/C, -1.33 wFC/C), though the sample size on the latter is much smaller than the former. Three of the four teams left in the post-season had great defenses and while the Yankees are just third among that group (16 Runs Prevented), they’ve added Harrison Bader on top of that. Taillon is the least expensive, but also worst projected pitcher on the board and also easily the worst projected value on either site. The roof is expected to be closed in Houston, which makes it a slightly negative run environment.

It should be no surprise that the Astros are the top offense on the board by half a run with a 4.03 team run total. LHBs (.309 wOBA, .335 xwOBA) were slightly better than RHBs (.307 wOBA, .303 xwOBA) against Snell this season. Also no surprise that Yordan Alvarez (186 wRC+, .328 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top projected bat on the board. He is also joined among the top 10 by Kyle Tucker (142 wRC+, .216 ISO), Jose Altuve (148 wRC+, .202 ISO) and Alex Bregman (151 wRC+, .227 ISO). Bregman also serves as a top 10 projected value on FanDuel ($3.3K). Trey Mancini (111 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Chas McCormick (88 wRC+, .137 ISO) project as top values on both sites for less than $3K. Yuli Gurriel (74 wRC+, .091 ISO) also projects as the third best DraftKings value for $2.4K.

Projections Suggest This Lineup is Loaded with Value

Blake Snell allowed a run or less in 13 of his last 17 regular season starts and did so with a 35.1 K% and 26.6 K-BB%. An 8.4 BB% over that span wouldn’t stand out to most people, but it represented substantial improvement for Snell, who had become accustomed to double digit walk rates for most of his Padre tenure. He finished the season with a 32.0 K%, 9.5 BB% and estimators ranging from a 2.68 DRA to a 3.21 xFIP a bit below his 3.38 ERA. Then the post-season came and he was the only San Diego dark spot of the Wild Card series, walking six of 19 Mets, a number he hit only once this season (at Coors), while striking out five and failing to make it out of the fourth inning. It was a different story against the Dodgers though. He struck out six of 23 with just two walks over 5.1 innings with only a single run allowed. Unfortunately for him, the Phillies mashed LHP this year (115 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 11.9 HR/FB), including Snell in his two starts against him (9.1 IP – 7 ER – 2 HR – 5 BB – 9 K – 42 BF), though both came before July. He will have one of the best defenses in baseball behind him (25 Runs Prevented), though the Phillies struggled against neither fastballs (0.4 wFB/C), nor sliders (0.32 wSL/C) in the second half, which makes up nearly 80% of Snell’s arsenal. Snell is the third most expensive and third best projected pitcher on the board. He’s also the top projected DraftKings value, but third best projected FanDuel value, just 0.02 P/$ from the top though as the top three projected FD values are as close as can be without being tied.

Both offenses in this game are tied at 3.5 implied runs in the middle of the board. He will face a predominantly right-handed lineup, but had virtually no split this season with batters from either side of the plate between a .274 and .285 wOBA and xwOBA. Bryce Harper (117 wRC+, .171 ISO vs LHP this season), Kyle Schwarber (94 wRC+, .193 ISO), Rhys Hoskins (162 wRC+, .272 ISO) and J.T. Realmuto (125 wRC+, .191 ISO) all project as top 10 bats. Hoskins also projects as the top FanDuel value today ($3.1K) with Nick Castellanos (99 wRC+, .082 ISO) right behind him ($2.7K). Realmuto ($3.4K) and Jean Segura (137 wRC+, .194 ISO) also project among the top 10 FD values. Matt Vierling (110 wRC+, .131 ISO) is the only Phillie projecting as a top 10 value on both sites for $2.1K or less. In fact, he is the top projected DraftKings value with Alec Bohm (158 wRC+, .189 ISO) joining him among the top 10 DK values for $3.3K.

Dominant in His Only Regular Season Start Against this Team

If anyone stands a decent chance of taking the NL Cy Young out of Sandy Alcantara’s hands, it’s probably Aaron Nola. He did not always excel at run prevention, but a lot of that can be blamed on the worst defense to make the post-season, which was also the second worst unit in baseball (-31 Runs Prevented). Nola recorded at least two seventh inning outs in 17 of his 32 starts this season, striking out 29.1% of the batters he faced, while walking just 3.6% with a 28.4 Z-O-Swing% and 31.6% hard hit rate. His 3.25 ERA was well above estimators ranging from a 2.58 FIP to a 2.80 SIERA. Nola has continued to excel in the post-season, striking out 12 of 51 batters faced with just three walks and a single unearned run over 12.2 innings. He was similarly dominant (7 IP – 1 R – 0 HR – 2 BB – 10 K – 28 BF) in his lone start against the Padres in June. Nola will likely be facing a balanced San Diego lineup with a 101 wRC+, 22.0 K% and 9.6 HR/FB vs RHP this season. Nola had three above average pitches by Statcast measures that he threw more than 18% of the time (four-seam, sinker, curveball). The only pitch the Padres graded negatively against in the second half was the slider (-0.19 wSL/C), a pitch Nola does not have in his repertoire. San Diego is the more negative run environment today, though the weather appears to be hitter friendly earlier in the day. Nola is the second most expensive pitcher and second best projected pitcher on either site. Pricing is such that the first and third projected FanDuel values are separated by 0.02 P/$ in LineupHQ today with Nola in the lead. The margin between first and third on DraftKings is a mear 0.2 P/$ with Nola coming in third there.

Both teams in this game have a 3.5 team run total, which sits in the middle of a four team board. RHBs (.281 wOBA, .258 xwOBA) had slightly more success than LHBs (.246 wOBA, .260 xwOBA) against Nola, though Statcast suggests he has no real split. As was the case yesterday, Juan Soto (166 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP this season) is the only Padre to project among the top 10 bats on either site. Soto also projects as a top 10 FanDuel value, along with Josh Bell (121 wRC+, .143 ISO), who projects as a top 10 value on both sites within $200 of $3K. Trent Grisham (83 wRC+, .156 ISO) is a top DraftKings value for $2.6K.

Today's Top Projected Pitcher Has Top Defense on the Board Behind HIm

Though he only struck out four of 28 batters, Yu Darvish shut the Mets down over seven innings (six hits, one run) in the Wild Card series. He followed up by striking out seven of 23 Dodgers, but with three runs over five innings against the Dodgers. Darvish allowed 22 home runs during the regular season (771 BF), but already four this post-season. He failed to go at least six innings just twice this year, once in his second start and again early in the season by a single out. The second half strikeout rate (28.8%) was much higher than the first (23%). He did allow 9.0% Barrels/BBE, but with the increasing strikeout rate and 4.8 BB%, it wasn’t too big a problem. The San Diego defense is the best on the board today (25 Runs Prevented was second best in the league). Every pitcher that Darvish threw this year (and there were several of them) grade better than average by Statcast. The one he threw most frequently was the cutter (35.3%, -0.6 RV/100, 25.6 Whiff%) was one of only two pitches (curveball being the other) that the Phillies were below average against in the second half (-0.56 wFC/C). Two caveats being that the it wasn’t a very large sample for the Phillies and that Darvish’s cutter had both a wOBA and xwOBA against above .350. Four of nine in the projected Phillies’ lineup have at least a 24.5 K% vs RHP this year, via PlateIQ, but none of the other five reach 20%. The top four all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP this year, though Brandon Marsh is the only bottom half batter exceeding those marks. Darvish is the most expensive pitcher on either site (tied on DraftKIngs). He is also the top projected arm and value on either site.

The Phillies have a 3.17 team run total that’s second from the bottom today, while RHBs (.284 wOBA, .312 xwOBA) were a bit better than LHBs (.239 wOBA, .277 xwOBA) against Darvish this season. The four guys exceeding a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO for the Phillies are all top 10 projected bats tonight: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins in that order. For less than $3K, Marsh (105 wRC+, .159 ISO) is a top 10 projected value on either site. He’s joined on FanDuel by a $2.7K Nick Castellanos (92 wRC+, .139 ISO).

Second Highest Team Run Total Projects Only a Single Top 10 Bat

Zack Wheeler will be starting Game One of the NLCS on six days rest. While San Diego is the more negative run environment in play today, the weather is expected to be extremely hitter friendly with a neutral umpiring assignment (Brian Knight). Wheeler struck out just four of the 22 Cardinals he faced in the Wild Card round with a single walk, a HBP and four hits over 6.2 shutout innings. He then struck out five of 24 Braves, but did allow three runs in less than six innings in Atlanta in the Division Series. Wheeler missed a month near the end of the season, but came back to strike out 15 of his final 52 batters. The discouraging part of that is that his swinging strike rate did not exceed 8.1% in any start since his return and averages at 5.6%. However, his velocity was intact with 63.9% of his contact on the ground and an 85.4 mph EV. Striking out a healthy 26.9% of batters (21.3 K-BB%), he’s the rare Phillies’ pitcher with all estimators above his 2.82 ERA, though they only extend to a 3.19 SIERA. That’s said because the Phillies are the only post-season team with a below average defense. In fact, -31 Runs Prevented is second worst in the majors, though Realmuto remains a top catcher (11.3 CDA is seventh) and they did improve the defense with some trade deadline acquisitions. The Padres had 101 wRC+, 22.0 K% and 9.6 HR/FB vs RHP this year with four of the top five in the projected lineup below an 18 K% vs RHP this year. Wheeler did dominate the Padres on a May 18th start in Philadelphia (7 IP – 4 H – 0 R – 0 BB – 9 K – 24 BF). Wheeler’s two best pitches by Statcast Run Values were both of his fastballs (four-seam and sinker), which make up about 60% of his pitches. The Padres were exactly neutral (0.00 wFB/C) against fastballs in the second half of the season, but did struggle against sliders (-0.19 wSL/C), which was Wheeler’s third best pitch (26.8%, -0.4 RV/100, 24.4 Whiff%, .272 wOBA, .262 xwOBA). The second most expensive pitcher on either site (tied on FanDuel), Wheeler is the second best projected pitcher and value on either site.

A 3.33 implied run line for the Padres is second best on the board, but still more than half a run below the Yankees. Wheeler has very little split with batters from either side of the plate between a .262 and .290 wOBA and xwOBA this year, though despite Manny Machado (158 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP this year) smashing RHP nearly as well as Juan Soto (166 wRC+, .249 ISO), the latter is the only San Diego bat projecting among the top 10 today. He is also the only top 10 projecting value among Padres on FanDuel ($3.5K). However, within $300 of $3K each, Josh Bell (121 wRC+, .143 ISO) and Trent Grisham (83 wRC+, .156 ISO) project as top 10 DraftKings values. The latter’s bat has really come alive in the post-season.