DFS Alerts
A negative run environment likely the only thing keeping the Red Sox below 4.5 implied runs tonight
Felix Hernandez has allowed fewer than three runs in just three of his last 13 starts and it’s unlikely to get any easier against the Red Sox (119 wRC+, 19 K% vs RHP). The negative run environment pushes Boston down to a 4.45 implied run line. LHBs have .357 wOBA and .399 xwOBA against Felix since last season. RHBs are at .323 and .332. As usual, the most attractive exposure would be to the top half of the lineup, if affordable: Mookie Betts (128 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Andrew Benintendi (138 wRC+, .212 ISO), J.D Martinez (169 wRC+, .371 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (107w RC+, .235 ISO).
Other tagged players: Felix Hernandez, JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland
Three of the four pitches Matt Koch throws exceed a .400 xwOBA
Matt Koch throws four pitches at least 15% of the time. Only the changeup, thrown least often (15.3%), has an xwOBA below .429. While LHBs actually have just a .265 wOBA against him, xwOBA brings that up to exactly .400, which is still below both his wOBA and xwOBA against RHBs. He has a 90.6 mph aEV and 14.4% Barrels/BBE with just a 13.4 K%. Somehow, he’s pitched into the sixth inning or better with two runs or less in five of his 10 starts and the Mets do have just a 31 wRC+ and 32.9 K% over the last seven days, but if they can’t hit Koch tonight, they may as well pack it in. The lineup for this game has not yet been confirmed, but it would be surprising if Brandon Nimmo (162 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Todd Frazier (109 wRC+, .168 ISO) weren’t in the middle of it. They are the only two batters on the team with more than 10 PAs over the last week above a 55 wRC+.
Other tagged players: Matt Koch, Todd Frazier One light weather threat on the small Thursday slate
On a four game slate with two potential dome games, there’s not a lot to worry about, but one of the two open games could have some minor weather issues. The full updated forecast is now available on the Weather page and premium subscribers can’t get the latest updates straight from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Jason Vargas has had poor surface results with competent underlying numbers
Jason Vargas has allowed two ERs or less in three of his last four starts. They are the only three starts he’s completed five innings in this season and he’s not gone more than that or 86 pitches in any start this year. This seems intentional. He has an 11.0 SwStr% this season and has been below 10.7% just once. His 85.1 mph aEV is second lowest on the board tonight. This doesn’t sound like a pitcher players should be attacking in what now may be a neutral or negative run environment with the humidor (though it wasn’t against Pittsburgh), but the Diamondbacks have a 4.73 implied run line that’s tied for the board high with a confirmed lineup that has a combined .348 wOBA, .196 ISO and just a 21.7 K% against LHP this year according to PlateIQ. Vargas has attacked 60% of the time with sinkers and changeups this year and both pitches exceed a .350 xwOBA against, though neither exceeds an 85 mph aEV. Paul Goldschmidt has a .450 wOBA against sinkers and a .358 wOBA against changeups since 2016. Though David Peralta (.369) exceeds him against the changeup and this pitch mix may explain why Vargas actually has a reverse platoon since last season (,368 wOBA vs .327), though xwOBA brings either side within three points of .335. The other factor is that Goldschmidt (201 wRC+, .407 ISO), Nick Ahmed (142 wRC+, .274 ISO) and John Ryan Murphy (158 wRC+, .354 ISO) have absolutely smoked LHP over the last calendar year. They may not all make it a third opportunity against Vargas however and will face a Mets bullpen that is surely not daunting, but predominantly right-handed.
Other tagged players: Jason Vargas, David Peralta, Nick Ahmed, John Ryan Murphy Anibal Sanchez has a great matchup and the lowest exit velocity, but terrible numbers vs Hosmer despite reverse split
“Man, it’s tough to get off Anibal Sanchez”…is not something daily fantasy players ever thought they’d say or even think this year, but this is the situation we seem to find tonight. The Padres have just a 3.89 implied run line that’s second worst on the board and he hasn’t been bad at all in recent starts. He’s pitched into the seventh with two runs or less in three of his last four starts (against the Cubs and the Dodgers too). His 83 mph aEV and 20.5% 95+ mph EV are best on the board today (entire day). The most important thing is the Padres (71 wRC+, 21.4 K-BB% on the road, 83 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP) though. Sanchez has thrown seven different pitches at least 20 times this season, so single pitch analysis is not going to help us much in this spot, but it is important to point out that he has a career reverse split (19 points) and that has been the case since last year, where RHBs have a .381 wOBA against him vs a .342 wOBA for LHBs. The numbers are dropped a bit and the gap closes to 15 points by xwOBA, but batters from either side are between .325 and .345 there. The Padres don’t have a right-handed batter in the lineup above 91 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year except for A.J. Ellis (111 wRC+, .198 ISO) though, and he’s hitting eighth. Jose Pirela (91 wRC+, .115 ISO) has some appeal as a cheap leadoff bat. Premium subscribers can see that there are several Padres in the top 20 on today’s Stolen Base Ratings. Eric Hosmer does have some interesting personal numbers against Sanchez (both played in the AL Central for several years). In 47 PAs, Hosmer has just one HR, but a .405 wOBA with a .475 xwOBA in the Statcast era (since 2015).
Other tagged players: Jose Pirela, Anibal Sanchez Blake Snell has one of just two poor start this season at Yankee Stadium
Facing the best and most expensive pitcher on the board finally pushes the Yankees below five implied runs at home, but they are still essetially tied for the top spot at 4.7 tonight. They’ll attack Blake Snell with an entirely right-handed lineup. Batters from that side have a .309 wOBA (.311 xwOBA) against him since last season, so almost league average. While they have eight HRs against him this season, he’s held them to just a .287 wOBA with a 17.2 K-BB%. This is a difficult situation, especially considering he faced the Yankees once this season (his second start) and it was one of only two times he’s allowed more than two runs this season (3.1 IP – 5 ER – 2 HR – 3 BB – 5 K also at Yankee Stadium). He still did a good job of staying out of the middle of the plate in that game, throwing 54% four-seam fastballs to RHBs, staying consistent with his season rate. Home runs were surrendered to Sanchez and Stanton on a rare hung changeup and slider (Statcast is awesome!). Giancarlo Stanton (193 wRC+, .401 ISO), Gleyber Torres (163 wRC+, .263 ISO), Tyler Austin (135 wRC+, .313 ISO) and Gary Sanchez (148 wRC+, .286 ISO) have been the best bats against LHP over the last calendar year, where Aaron Judge has been more human (119 wRC+, .214 ISO). Among those five bats and including Miguel Andujar (106 wRC+, .232 ISO) all except Gleyber Torres (.305) are above a .400 wOBA against four-seam fastballs according to PlateIQ. Snell is a dangerous pay up tonight, but cases can be made to exposure to either side of this matchup (as it can be in most cases tonight) on a four game slate.
Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, Blake Snell Tyson Ross has struggled against weak lineups recently, faces a few bats who hit sliders well
Tyson Ross is one of the better pitchers on tonight’s four game slate, but he has faltered as of late (15.2 IP – 9 R – 2 HR – 5 BB – 14 K – 47 BF) against the Marlins (twice) and Reds. Batters from either side of the plate are going to get either a four-seam fastball or slider over 90% of the time. This would be a good time to see what PlateIQ says. Each of the first five batters are above a .350 wOBA against the four-seamer since 2016. Freddie Freeman has a .452 wOBA against the pitch and a strong 64.88 IQ Rating overall that’s eighth best on the board tonight (available to premium subscribers). Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Tyler Flowers are the only three batters in the lineup with at least a .390 wOBA against four-seam fastballs and also the only ones above a .320 wOBA against sliders since 2016. Even with his early season rejuvenation, Ross has an extreme split this season (LHBs .364 wOBA, RHBs .227 wOBA), though the only real difference is in 10 points of K-BB%. Batters from either side have around a league average ground ball rate and 40% hard hit rate. Albies (100 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Freeman (146 wRC+, .223 ISO) are obviously stronger plays than Flowers (81 wRC+, .177 ISO).
Other tagged players: Tyler Flowers, Tyson Ross, Ozzie Albies Rays have the lowest implied run line on the board vs a pitcher who has allowed 22 ERs in 27 innings
Domingo German threw six no-hit innings with nine strikeouts in his first start and hasn’t allowed less than three runs in an outing since. He’s allowed 22 ERs and six HRs in 27 innings over that span with a 21.7 K%, but 13.2 SwStr% over that span, in which he’s generated just a 39.5 GB% with a 40.7 Hard%. Somehow, the Rays still have the lowest implied run line on the board (3.77) at Yankee Stadium tonight. Interestingly, German throws the curveball most often (37.3%) and it’s his best pitch (.225 xwOBA, 83.6 mph aEV, 37.5 Whiff%). Rays confirmed for tonight’s lineup do not have a lot of experience against curveballs at the major league level. Among batters who do, C.J. Cron has a .371 wOBA with just a 41.3 GB% against the pitch since 2016. German does throw the pitch even more often against RHBs (45%) and has been worse overall against them as well (.332 wOBA, 39.7 Hard% vs .290, 32.2% against LHBs). Cron has a 121 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. He’s a nice play tonight, as might be Matt Duffy (148 wRC+, .119 ISO) out of the leadoff spot. Duffy’s xwOBA (.330) is 50 points below his actual wOBA (.381) against RHP, but his price tag is low enough that there may still be some value there. Jake Bauers (.458 xwOBA) and Willy Adames (.158 xwOBA) are high profile rookies without many PAs against RHP at the major league level yet. German needs to be considered too for $7K or less on this slate. Also realize that it’s only going to get worse for the Rays once the bullpen enters the game and that’s part of what goes into that Vegas run line.
Other tagged players: Matt Duffy, Willy Adames, Jakob Bauers, Domingo German Daily Bullpen Alert: One pitcher averaging less than five innings per start tonight
Jason Vargas is the only pitcher on the board averaging less than 5.1 innings per start tonight. Part of that is probably by design, some of it because he’s had some really bad starts. If considering Diamondback hitters, who are strong against LHP, the Mets bullpen is primarily right-handed. They do have just a 4.44 FIP and 11.7 K-BB% over the last 30 days. Also, their two top bullpen arms (Familia – DL & Lugo – rotation) are out of the pen right now, though they did recently just get back Anthony Swarzak to pair with Robert Gsellman (2.81 FIP last 30 days). Felix Hernandez, Domingo German and Anibal Sanchez are averaging less than 5.2 innings per start. The Yankees (2.76 FIP, 19.8 K-BB%) and Mariners (2.74 FIP, 20.1 K-BB%) are the top two bullpens by FIP and top three pens by K-BB% over the last month, though that’s unlikely to stop players from loading up on Boston bats on a four game slate, even in a negative run environment. The Braves have a 17.0 K-BB% (10th) over that span, but a 4.18 FIP (15.1 HR/FB).
Good pitchers in bad spots, bad pitchers in good ones on Thursday night
It’s not that there aren’t good pitchers on a small four game slate tonight. There are. It’s not that there aren’t any good spots. There are a couple of those too. It’s matching up the good pitchers with the good spots that’s tricky. The best pitcher on the board is probably Blake Snell. He’s the only pitcher above $9K on either site and has a board leading 27.4 K%, 3.48 SIERA, and .291 xwOBA. He’s failed to go at least 5.2 innings just twice in 14 starts and has allowed more than two runs just twice. He’s also in what is by far the worst spot on the board at Yankee Stadium (119 wRC+, 12 BB%, 17.1 HR/FB at home, 118 wRC+, 10.9 BB%, 17.6 HR/FB vs LHP – all of these numbers are board best splits). David Price (27.2 K%, 3.64 SIERA, and .303 xwOBA last 30 days) and Tyson Ross (24.9 K%, 3.81 SIERA, 3.29 xwOBA this season) are the next best and next most expensive pitchers on the board. They face the Mariners (115 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP, 142 wRC+, 22.5 HR/FB last seven days) and the Braves (99 wRC+, 20.6 K% vs RHP). Ross has also faltered a bit over his last three starts (15.2 IP – 9 R – 2 HR – 5 BB – 14 K – 47 BF), facing the Marlins twice and the Reds. The best spots on the board go to Anibal Sanchez (8.7 SwStr%, 4.20 SIERA), who actually has a reasonable .316 xwOBA and the lowest aEV (83 mph) on the board, against the Padres (71 wRC+, 21.4 K-BB% on the road, 83 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP) and Matt Koch (13.4 K%, 4.84 SIERA, .430 xwOBA, 90.6 mph aEV, 14.4% Barrels/BBE) against the Mets (31 wRC+, 32.9 K% last seven days). Sanchez may be a top value tonight. He’s pitched into the seventh with two runs or less in three of his last four starts (against the Cubs and the Dodgers too). Koch would seem untouchable. The Mets would have to bat from the wrong side of the plate (which might be an improvement) to have much confidence in his profile.
Other tagged players: Blake Snell, David Price, Tyson Ross, Matt Koch Sneaky Stack in this Four-Game Slate
The Mets are the sneakiest stack of the slate. They are underdogs on the road, which should help keep ownership down. You can argue that they have the best matchup on the board. Matt Koch is a low-strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a .396 xwOBA to lefties and a .464 xwOBA to righties. Brandon Nimmo has been on a tear all year, offering a nice combination of speed and power. He currently owns a .433 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.
Hot Offense in a Good Matchup
The Diamondbacks are a viable stack tonight, although they aren’t exactly flying under the radar. Everyone loves picking on Jason Vargas, as he has allowed a .376 xwOBA to lefties and a .344 xwOBA to righties this season. The Diamondbacks’ offense has really been heating up over the last couple of weeks and get to face Vargas at home. John Ryan Murphy currently owns a .429 xwOBA against left-handed pitching.
Might be the Night to Save at Pitching
You know it’s a strange slate when we are considering Sanchez in cash games. He won’t be able to sustain his 2.37 ERA over the course of the season, but he still has a respectable 4.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He is generating more ground balls and more soft contact this season, which is a big reason why he’s been able to have so much success. The Padres have hit the ball well over the last two weeks, but are still an exploitable matchup. Their projected lineup has a .286 xwOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Throwing Darts at Pitcher Tonight
German is a core play for me in tonight’s four-game slate. He doesn’t have a lot of big league experience, but has posted a 3.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% in his six starts this season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact, but he’s facing a Rays’ offense that doesn’t exactly have the most firepower. Their projected lineup has a .306 xwOBA, a .139 ISO, and a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. German is cheap, he’s a large favorite, and he’s pitching at home.
Just Get On Base
Tyson Ross has a .364 wOBA against lefties this season. He also has a .458 wOBA against his fastball versus LHB, which he’s throwing 47% of the time. His fastball velocity has been down over his last two starts, so he could be in a lot of trouble tonight. On top of that, Ross struggles with holding on runners. Inciarte has struggled this season, but he has some solid upside if he’s able to get on base tonight. I like his price more on FanDuel, but I think he’s in play in all formats.
