DFS Alerts

Elite Upside at a Discounted Price

Gray has been one of the most hit or miss starters in baseball this season, but there’s no denying his talent. He is due for some positive regression, as his SIERA (3.47) is two full runs lower than his ERA. His peripheral statistics are all above the major league average — 26% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, 46% ground ball rate, and a slate-leading 12.8% swinging strike rate. The good news is that his high ERA has kept his price affordable across the industry. I will keep going back to the well in hopes that the tables will start to turn (much like I did with Matt Carpenter earlier in the year). This is certainly an exploitable matchup, as the Phillies’ projected lineup has a 28% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

High Floor for Cash Games

Mikolas doesn’t have a high strikeout rate and may not be able to sustain a 2.27 ERA, but regression doesn’t always hit overnight. He’s still having a very solid season with a 3.62 SIERA, a walk rate of 3%, and a ground ball rate of 51%. What he lacks in strikeouts he makes up for in an ability to pitch deep into games. He draws one of the top matchups of the slate, as the Padres’ projected lineup has a .263 xwOBA with a 29% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Tanner Roark is far from a bad pitcher, but throw him in Yankee Stadium and the home team still has a 5.04 implied run line that’s third best on the board. This, despite sitting slumping catcher Gary Sanchez tonight. The Yankee bats are potent, but expensive, perhaps not offering a ton of value, especially against a pitcher who has held RHBs to a .264 wOBA and 25.4 Hard% since last season. That may lower ownership rates for Aaron Judge (169 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Giancarlo Stanton (133 wRC+, .315 ISO). Brett Gardner (120 wRC+, .162 ISO) may be the top value in the lineup. LHBs have a .344 wOBA against Roark since 2017.

Red Sox have the highest implied run line on the board (5.47) without Mookie Betts again

Mookie Betts is out again. Despite that, the Red Sox still have the top implied run line tonight at 5.47, which actually seems kind of low for a 15 game slate, but no other team is even above 5.2 runs with most games occurring in neutral or negative run environments. While David Hess has an 85 point standard platoon split by actual wOBA, xwOBA closes that to 14 points with batters from both sides within 10 points of .325. While that’s not terrible, Hess has just a 13.6 K% and 38.3 GB%, which has led to 9.6% Barrels/BBE. This could cause some problems for him against a contact prone lineup tonight. The biggest issue might be how to afford Andrew Benintendi (139 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (167 wRC+, .371 ISO), but Eduardo Nunez (113 wRC+, .162 ISO) might solve that problem for $3.6K or less in the leadoff spot.

Adam Plutko has started three games for Cleveland this year and in those three games, he has faced 34 left-handed batters, allowing six extra-base hits, including two HRs. LHBs have a .426 wOBA (.467 xwOBA) and 51.9 Hard% against him so far. If this trend continues, this experiment will be over sooner rather than later, but it does offer players an opportunity to use some low cost, high powered left-handed bats against him tonight, likely at low ownership considering they’re part of a White Sox lineup with a moderate 4.38 run projection. Yoan Moncada (120 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Yolmer Sanchez (105 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Daniel Palka (99 wRC+, .248 ISO) all cost less than $4K on either site.

Miami may be a value stack with each of the first four batters above average hitters against RHP

Don’t look know, but each of the first four batters in the Miami lineup have at least a 120 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Only Brian Anderson (120 wRC+, .116 ISO) is below a .197 ISO and his .346 wOBA is inline with his .340 xwOBA against righties over that span. He, along with Justin Bour (141 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Derek Dietrich (121 wRC+, .197 ISO) are all below $4K on either site against a pitcher (Chris Stratton), who has a .350+ xwOBA against batters from either side of the plate since last season. J.T. Realmuto (123 wRC+, .204 ISO) costs just above $4K on DraftKings, the highest priced hitter in the lineup. It’s not the highest upside on the slate as the Marlins have just a 79 wRC+ against RHP and 4.11 implied run line tonight, but the top half of their lineup is probably too cheap in this spot.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Blue Jays pen has an MLB high 5.44 FIP last 30 days behind a starter averaging less than five innings per start

On a slate where all 30 major league teams are in action, the pitchers with the smallest workloads generally have some of the best bullpens behind them tonight. Caleb Ferguson lasted just 11 batters in his first start and just 17 in his previous AAA start, but has one of the stronger bullpens in baseball behind him (Dodgers 3.25 FIP, 14.9 K-BB% last 30 days). The Yankees (2.86 FIP, 18.9 K-BB% last 30 days) behind C.C. Sabathia, Cubs (2.97 FIP, 14.5 K-BB%) behind Tyler Chatwood and Padres (4.07 FIP, 16.4 K-BB%), who will be throwing their entire pen at the Cardinals today, can probably all say the same. Lower workload pitchers working in front of bullpens players can attack may include Trevor Richards (Marlins 4.71 FIP, 6.1 K-BB% last 30 days), Jaime Garcia (Blue Jays 5.44 FIP, 10.1 K-BB%), Sal Romano (Reds 4.12 FIP, 7.9 K-BB%) and Ian Kennedy (Royals 4.62 FIP, 14.7 K-BB%).

Two potentially strong values in the mid-price range on Tuesday

There are probably a number of usable mid-priced options today, especially considering the lack of high strikeout upside on today’s board, but two may stand out a bit more than most. Jon Gray allowed three runs over five innings in Cincinnati with five strikeouts last time out and it was his best start in a month. It was the first time he’d surrendered fewer than four runs in five starts. He’s in another power friendly park tonight, but it’s also a high upside spot (Phillies split high 26.9 K% vs RHP, split low 7.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP today). His 25.7 K% is third best on the board. His 13.4 SwStr% over the last month is second best. Gray’s actual ERA exceeds his estimators by five runs over the last month with a ridiculous BABIP above .400. His 5.2% Barrels/BBE this season is third best on today’s slate. He’s not the safest play, but he projects for one of the top strikeout rates tonight for around $8K. Zack Wheeler has a 22.4 K% that’s just a bit above league average this year, but closer to the top of a full slate than you’d think today. Wheeler has been one of the best contact managers on the board (85.6 mph aEV is third best) and has gone at least six innings in four straight starts and six of seven as well. The Braves have a 98 wRC+ and 20.7 K% vs RHP. Wheeler costs $7K in a neutral run environment.

The only pitcher above a 28% strikeout rate tonight has just a 9.8 SwStr%

The only pitcher on tonight’s slate above a 28% strikeout rate has just a 9.8 SwStr% and non-FIP estimators still more than a run above his 2.31 ERA. Despite facing an offense with a 37 wRC+ and 30.5 K% over the last week, it still may be a questionable decision to pay $11.8K on DraftKings for Mike Foltynewicz. Only one pitcher costs more and Aaron Nola (24.8 K%, 53.7 GB%, .265 xwOBA, 4.1% Barrels/BBE) is the best pitcher on the board in one of the top spots at home against the Rockies too (75 wRC+, 14.6 K-BB% vs RHP). He’s completed six innings in 11 straight starts and is the pitcher players should be the most confident about overall tonight. Two more pitchers join the $10K club on DraftKings, although none get there on FanDuel tonight. Miles Mikolas doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but with his expected workload (pitched into the seventh in eight of 12 starts) and matchup (Padres 21.2 K-BB% on the road, 25.8 K% vs RHP), he should improve on his 18.5 K% tonight. He’s also been one of the top contact managers on the board (50.8 GB%, 28.4% 95+ mph EV). Eduardo Rodriguez has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (27.6%), though he’s only exceeded eight once this year and hasn’t exceeded seven in any of his last five starts. That’s generally because he doesn’t often go deep into games. He hasn’t completed seven innings a single time and has only gotten an out in the seventh twice. That said, he has an ERA and estimators in the mid-threes, while his .290 xwOBA and 4.5% Barrels/BBE are both second best on tonight’s board. He’s also facing the Orioles (81 wRC+, but just a 22.5 K% vs LHP). In two starts against them this season, he’s struck out 15 of 51 batters, allowing a single run in 11.2 innings. $11.1K on DraftKings is a lot to ask for a guy who rarely goes beyond six innings. Lance McCullers has dropped just below $10K on DraftKings because he has struck out just 10 total in his last three starts in tough matchups against Cleveland, Boston and Seattle. His 55.3 GB% tops the board, though the 89.7 mph EV isn’t exactly inspiring. He’s gone at least six innings in eight of 13 starts though, while the matchup in Oakland is fairly neutral against a team that does hit the ball hard though (26.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).

Get Creative

Mookie is back and the Red Sox enter Tuesday’s slate with the highest implied run total on the board. It will be interesting to see how Boston ownership plays out on a full 15-game slate as they are expensive to roster and David Hess and his 3.07 ERA seemingly reflect a tough(ish) matchup. The reality is Hess has gotten all sorts of lucky in his 29 IP so far this year as his 5.18 SIERA indicates. Hess allows a ton of balls in play (13.6 K%, 8.8 SwStr%) and a lot of that contact has been hard contact has 42.6% of balls in play have been hit 95+ mph. You’ll have to get creative at SP if you want to fit the expensive Boston OF in your lineup but Devers has a nice tag on DK.

Run It Back

The chalk stack flopped hard last night but we get the chance to run it back with the Indians in a matchup versus James Shields and the White Sox in hitter friendly Guaranteed Rate Field. Shields had been surprisingly good at keeping the ball in the yard early on in the season but fell back into his old ways his last two starts as he allowed six HRs over 13 IP. His last two full seasons his HR/9 rate has hovered right around two, which is beyond terrible. His career 12.5% HR/FB ratio is awful as well. All of that to say: don’t let last night deter you from rostering Indians. Contextually they are in one of the best spots for offensive production as their 5.4 implied run total indicates.

Unowned Stack, Sneaky Power Upside

Mike Leake has been good the last few starts which will hopefully throw everyone off his scent. The reality is that he’s not a very good pitcher at this stage of his career – he owns the third highest xWOBA (.390) of all pitchers that have faced 250+ batters and he allows a ton of contact (14.9 K%, 7.7 SwStr%). He does a good job at keeping the ball on the ground but when he makes a mistake, the ball tends to go far – for his career he owns a 13.6% HR/FB ratio. People mistakenly assume that SafeCo punishes power when in reality it has played around league average in terms of the long ball over the last four years. The Angels make for a likely unowned stack with sneaky power upside.

Chase Strikeouts

You guys know the drill – strikeouts are king. When in doubt, chase the K. Eduardo Rodriguez (27.6 K%, 11.7 SwStr%) is one of the best ways to do that on Tuesday night against an Orioles team that struggles mightily versus LHP (22.5 K%, 81 wRC+). Rodriguez has been sneaky good this year with a 3.45 SIERA and four straight games of 21+ DK points. ERod has one of the best raw projections of the night but may see his ownership dip a bit due to a price tag over $11K on DK.

Hefty Price Tag

Folty is likely going to be largely unowned thanks to a hefty price tag and he really doesn’t stand out as a strong pt/$ investment. However, on a night devoid of aces, Folty leads Tuesday’s probable starters with a 28.7% strikeout rate and he’s been surprisingly good this year as evident by his 2.31 ERA (3.70 SIERA). A matchup against the Mets is largely neutral (21.4 K%, 100 SIERA vs RHP) but Folty could see a slightly watered down lineup if Asdrubal Cabrera is unable to play. I don’t love this play but options are limited and Folty has shown upside (49.5 DK points two starts ago) this year.

Low Owned Value Play

Max Kepler is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight, as I would think he’s going to be very low owned. Kepler has been really good against left-handed pitching this season, and Hardy has actually struggled with left-handed hitters. Hardy has a .235 ISO with a 34.5% hard hit rate and only a 13.5% strikeout rate against lefties this season. Kepler has a very impressive .302 ISO with a .404 wOBA in 72 PAs against lefties this season, and his average exit velocity is 91.4. I don’t expect a lot of people to be on this one tonight because of the lefty/lefty matchup, and at his price on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, it’s not even a hugely risky spot.