DFS Alerts
A Flexible Stack with Upside
There are some juicy-looking stacks on tonight’s MLB slate, and I like the flexibility that the Reds offer against Jason Hammel. Hammel’s numbers have been declining over the last few years, particularly in the strikeout department. This is a fine matchup for the power bats for the Reds, with Suarez and Gennett topping the list, and of course we should expect Votto’s power to come around at some point. The Reds do offer some flexibility, though, as you can go to a guy like Winker for some value. Tucker Barnhart is a fine play from the likely #2 spot in the batting order on sites where you need a catcher, and the Reds get an added benefit of using a DH in the American League park tonight. There are plenty of good reasons to stack them up in GPP formats.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Tucker Barnhart, Scooter Gennett
A Fine Matchup to Get His Season Rolling?
There is no doubt that Weaver has been a frustrating enigma this season, and it’s beginning to look more and more like his 2017 results were a bit fluky. However, he’s still an average to above average MLB arm, and he draws a great matchup tonight against the Padres. Weaver and the Cardinals are north of -200 home favorites in this game, and San Diego has a weak offense that strikes out a lot against RHP. Weaver won’t cost you a premium salary tag, and he’s a great cost-controlled arm for tournaments, especially on the multi-pitcher sites.
The Pivot off a Chalky Cole
Gerrit Cole is obviously going to be the most popular high-end pitching choice, and he’s certainly the safest option for cash games. However, I love the pivot to Berrios in tournament formats. Berrios is always borderline dominant against right-handed bats, and the Tigers don’t offer much for pop from the left side outside of Candelario. This is a fine matchup for Minnesota’s hurler, with his strength against RHBs to go along with a 26% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate for the year. Fire him up with extreme confidence in GPPs this evening.
Two Aces, Not One
Gerrit Cole has the reputation and the salary of being the lone ace tonight, but I can’t find any reason why Trevor Bauer should be this much of a savings, especially in this matchup against the White Sox. While Cole’s strikeouts have backed off to a 31.7% in the past month, Bauer’s have surged to 37.1%, along with a low walk rate of 5.7%. He has an incredible 44:5 K:BB ratio over his last four starts as he continues to climb the ladder year after year. The White Sox active roster has the 3rd highest K rate in the league against right-handed pitching, while Cole’s opponent, Oakland is at just 13th. If they were the same salary, I would lean slightly towards Cole, but this gap is too wide for their current form.
Nomar Mazara (illness) scratched Tuesday
Mazara has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Tuesday’s matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers due to flu-like symptoms. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ronald Guzman, who will play first base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Jurickson Profar up to third and Joey Gallo up to fifth, respectively, while Gallo also moves to left field defensively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Rangers order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Caleb Ferguson on the road this evening.
As reported by: John Blake via Twitter
Bartolo Colon has allowed 15 HRs over his last nine starts and faces a powerful lineup in LA tonight
Bartolo Colon has allowed 15 HRs over his last nine starts, has the lowest SwStr% (5.8) on the board, the highest xwOBA (.414) over the last 30 days and faces the hottest offense in the majors over the last week (149 wRC+, 23.3 HR/FB). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. While Dodger Stadium is a negative run environment, it’s actually slightly power friendly. Justin Turner is has both the lowest wRC+ (99) and ISO (.161) in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year. Matt Kemp (103 wRC+, .194 ISO) is second lowest in both categories. Max Muncy (162 wRC+, .327 ISO) is now the most expensive batter in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Bartolo Colon, Justin Turner, Matt Kemp
Some rain potential, but limited concern in Tuesday's forecast
The forecast is updated for Tuesday night. There may be a few spots with slight risk of delay, but not a lot of overall concern from Kevin. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Kevin will update conditions for premium subscribers right up until lock on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Tyler Chatwood has walked more than a quarter of the batters he's faced over four starts
Tyler Chatwood has a 19.6 K% that’s nearly league average this year, yet he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out. In fact, that walk rate spikes to 26.2% over his last four starts. While the Brewers have a fairly high 4.85 implied run line, they also have some high price tags among their most useful bats and the best way to utilize them might be as a left-handed stack, considering Chatwood has a .311 wOBA and 58.3 GB% against RHBs since last season. He has a 56 GB% against LHBs too, but the wOBA jumps to .361. Walks are generally not what daily fantasy players are looking for, but stacking will expose players to runs and runs driven in as well. Eric Thames (135 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) returns in the leadoff spot. Christian Yelich (137 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Travis Shaw (132 wRC+, .275 ISO) make it three lefties among the first four batters tonight.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Tyler Chatwood James Shields has allowed three HRs in each of his last two starts, but has given the White Sox at least six innings in nine straight
Cleveland (5.13) is one of just three teams above five implied runs tonight when they travel to Chicago to face James Shields. If nothing else, Shields has given the White Sox length, having gone at least six innings in nine straight starts. He’s allowed three HRs in each of his last two though. LHBs have a .350 wOBA against him since last season and though RHBs are 37 points below that, xwOBA brings them up to .349 too. The difficult part about a Cleveland stack will be affording Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (144 wRC+, .222 ISO), Jose Ramirez (166 wRC+, .323 ISO) and Edwin Encarnacion (146 wRC+, .286 ISO). There are no affordable compliments in the top half of this order or even the top third, considering Encarnacion would have to be sacrificed for Yonder Alonso (117 wRC+, .180 ISO).
Other tagged players: Yonder Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion, James Shields, Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor Ian Kennedy has the highest xwOBA on the board at home since last season
Ian Kennedy has a .394 xwOBA at home since last season that’s a split high on this board. Much of the difference between that and his actual home xwOBA 27 points lower at home over that span has to do with Kansas City being a large park, though it’s actually a positive run environment. Not so much this year, however. He’s allowed six HRs over his last six home starts, including three to the A’s in just 18 batters in his most recent home effort. It’s a large park shift for the Reds, at least in terms of power suppression, but batters from either side have a wOBA within five points of .350 against Kennedy since last season and xwOBA pushes both sides up 17 to 29 points. Joey Votto (178 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a great first base candidate (218 wRC+ last seven days). He, Scott Schebler (102 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Scooter Gennett (144 wRC+, .239 ISO) can be balanced with lower costing bats like Tucker Barnhart (89 wRC+, .128 ISO) in the second spot or Jesse Winker (133 wRC+, .167 ISO) a bit lower in the order.
Other tagged players: Scott Schebler, Scooter Gennett, Jesse Winker, Tucker Barnhart, Ian Kennedy Two Twins batters exceed a 140 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year and Miguel Sano is not one
The Twins have a stunningly low 7.0 HR/FB against LHP this year. The return of Miguel Sano (118 wRC+, .239 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has been part of the solution, but only two other batters have hit southpaws well over the last calendar year. They’ve hit them really well, however. One is obviously Brian Dozier (145 wRC+, .260 ISO), who has a reasonable price tag (< $4.5K) in this spot. LHBs have a .356 wOBA against Blaine Hardy since last season. The other big bat is a surprise and could be a low priced SS GPP option. Ehire Adrianza (147 wRC+, .200 ISO) bats eighth, but has been a pleasant surprise against lefties. Another thing to consider if considering stacking this offense with a 4.58 implied run line is that Hardy has a .337 wOBA against same-handed hitters that xwOBA spikes to .373.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Ehire Adrianza, Blaine Hardy Jose Martinez has a 420 wRC+ and 78.3 Hard% over the last week
The Cardinals will be facing Matt Strahm to start the game for the Padres, but he hasn’t exceeding 36 pitches in an outing this season and even that was his first one of the year over a month ago. In essence, they’ll face the entire San Diego bullpen. The Cardinals are fourth on the board with a 4.86 Vegas run line tonight and the majority of the hitters in the top half of the lineup hit pitchers from either side fairly well. Tommy Pham and red hot Jose Martinez (420 wRC+, 78.3 Hard% last seven days) are unlikely to find themselves in many very difficult spots, though those are the two of the most expensive bats in the lineup. Matt Carpenter has seen his cost rise after being shut down as a popular under-priced bat last night.
Other tagged players: Matt Strahm, Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter Great Bet for a Home Run
The Reds see a negative ballpark shift playing in Kansas City, but they get to use the DH in this series and draw one of the best matchups of the slate. In addition to the low ground ball rate, Ian Kennedy has allowed a .399 xwOBA to lefties and a .375 xwOBA to righties this season. He also has a high hard contact rate and a high walk rate. No matter how you slice it, this is a great matchup for the Reds. Joey Votto owns a .466 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Cleveland Stack for the Win
When I have time, I like to make a list of potential stacks in the morning and then I’ll adjust throughout the day as I do research and as the lineups come out. The Indians started the morning at the top of that list and I don’t see anything that could bump them off outside of the game being postponed. James Shields has allowed a .357 xwOBA to lefties and a .362 xwOBA to righties this season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate and the Indians are facing him on the road, which guarantees ninth-inning at bats. Francisco Lindor owns a .405 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Stack 'Em and Rack 'Em
When I have time, I like to make a list of potential stacks in the morning and then I’ll adjust throughout the day as I do research and as the lineups come out. The Indians started the morning at the top of that list and I don’t see anything that could bump them off outside of the game being postponed. James Shields has allowed a .357 xwOBA to lefties and a .362 xwOBA to righties this season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate and the Indians are facing him on the road, which guarantees ninth-inning at bats. Jose Ramirez owns a .411 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.