DFS Alerts
High Strikeout Rates Don't Matter Here
When looking at Adam Plutko in his small sample size, he’s struggled with left-handed power hitters. He has a .345 ISO with an 8.8% strikeout rate against lefties, and he has a massive 51.9% hard hit rate. On top of the massive hard-hit rate, Plutko has a very high hard to soft contact ratio against lefties. We don’t have a lot of left-handed power in this lineup, but I do like Palka a lot in this spot. He has a .257 ISO with a .507 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Facing a low strikeout pitcher, I’m not too worried about his big strikeout rate; I’m attacking him because of his high hard-hit rate instead.
Positive Regression Is Coming
Justin Bour hit the ball well batting behind Stanton last season, and he’s starting to get going after a really slow start to the season. He has a .252 ISO with a .370 wOBA and a .509 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He also has a 41.5% hard hit rate. Bour has been very unlucky against righties this season and comes in with a .269 BABIP. Stratton is not very good; I remember using him a couple of times earlier this season. Times have changed, and he has a 16.2% strikeout rate with a 11.6% walk rate against lefties. The hard to soft contact rate this season is 33.3%, which might be one of the highest in the majors. Bour is cheap tonight, so he’s a great way to save some money.
Still Too Cheap On FanDuel
DraftKings did a great job raising the price for Jaime Barria, but he’s still too cheap on FanDuel and has some solid upside at this price. It’s all a small sample size for Barria, but he’s pitched well outside of his starts against the Yankees and Giants. He throws a lot of strikes, and he’s getting ahead of hitters at a 60.4% clip this season. He does a great job at getting soft contact, while still having a 20.4% strikeout rate. With his ability to limit soft contact in this ballpark, I think he’s in play at this price tag. The projected starters for the Mariners have a .176 ISO with a .318 wOBA against righties this season. While the ISO scares me, I’m a little less worried about it in this ballpark with a guy like Barria.
High Strikeout Upside
I want to apologize ahead of time, because it seems like every five days I write up Jon Gray, and he continues to get unlucky. He has a 5.66 ERA but a 3.47 SIERA and a 3.21 xFIP this season. He has a career high.379 BABIP and judging by the SIERA and xFIP, he’s simply getting unlucky this season. Gray still has a career-high 12.7% swinging strike rate and a 25.7% strikeout rate. With Hoskins back, the Phillies add a power bat, but it’s a bat that does have a 29.3% strikeout rate against righties this season. The projected starting lineup has a 25.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. With limited pitching options on this slate, Gray is a value play I really like in this situation.
Picking on a Pitcher That Allows Tons of Homers
James Shields has actually been respectable this season, but the shine might be starting to wear off. He got hammered by the Twins in his last start, and he is always going to be susceptible to home run power with his fly ball ways. That doesn’t bode well in a matchup against the Indians. Francisco Lindor is my favorite shortstop play of the night, and while his numbers have lagged a bit this year, this matchup sets up very well for him to rebound. The position scarcity is also a thing now, with guys like Corey Seager out and Carlos Correa banged up. The best numbers on this team belong to Jose Ramirez, who has video-game like figures with a .434 wOBA, .351 ISO, and 1.039 OPS against RHP on the year. The only issue with Ramirez is his massive price tag, but he and Lindor lead the pack of Indians tonight.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez
One of the Top Spots for Offense
I love picking on Sal Romano. I’m surprised he still has a starting role for a major league team at this point, but who am I to complain about that? He has a bloated 10% walk rate, a SIERA over 5.00, and one of the lowest swinging strike rates in all of baseball. Hello, power bats! I absolutely love the spot for Mike Moustakas. He has been a victim of bad luck with BABIP this season, so improvement is likely on the horizon, and he still owns a solid .267 ISO and .378 wOBA against RHP. Don’t be surprised if he does some major damage this evening.
A Value Bat in a Strong Matchup
I’m not a believer in Stratton at all and expect some major regression in the second half of the season, but loading up on Marlins is never a great idea. Instead, I’ll stick to an individual bat like Justin Bour. He still has elite skills with a .252 ISO and .370 wOBA against RHP this year, and he has been victimized by a relatively low BABIP. Don’t be surprised if he gets going in a matchup like this one, and I love his power potential and value price tag tonight.
A Great Floor and a Great Matchup
As a Cardinals fan, I’ll have to be a homer with Miles Mikolas tonight. He’s averaging just ONE walk per nine innings this year, he always pitches deep into games, and his strikeout potential is enhanced tonight against a very attackable Padres lineup. Mikolas is a massive home favorite, and he carries a very high floor and a reasonably high ceiling here. He’s a great play in cash games, and he will even land on a fair share of my GPP lineups on a night that really isn’t loaded up with arms. If he can grab just five, six, or can we be greedy with seven strikeouts, there’s a path to him being the highest scoring pitcher on the slate. I love the way his attack the hitter approach lines up in this matchup.
An Elite Arm, Especially in GPP Formats
He doesn’t have the same floor as Nola and Mikolas, but McCullers might have the highest ceiling on the slate when it comes to arms. His strikeout rate is right there with Nola around 25%, and he owns a respectable 12.1% swinging strike rate. The issue that McCullers has is that he tends to nibble a little more than Nola or Mikolas, and that makes it difficult for him to pitch as deep into games. However, there are some free swingers in this A’s lineup, and there is absolutely a path to him racking up double figure strikeouts in this game. He has held LHBs to a .275 wOBA and RHBs to a .320 wOBA this season, and his ground ball rate is 62% against RHBs. As long as he attacks the strike zone, I like McCullers here.
Angels have just a 4.06 implied run line against a mediocre lefty, but a tough bullpen
At first glance, the Angels look mighty appealing with their predominantly right-handed lineup against a marginal lefty in Wade LeBlanc, but then we see they have just a 4.06 implied run line that’s on the bottom half of a 16 team board. For starters, Seattle is a negative run environment, but so is nearly every other park on the slate. Secondly, RHBs have just a .281 wOBA against LeBlanc since last season, while RHBs have a .357 wOBA. However, xwOBA closes that gap to an eight point difference with either side within five points of .340. LeBlanc also rarely goes more than five innings, averaging almost exactly that per start this year. The Mariners then have the best bullpen in baseball over the last month coming in behind him. Their 2.18 FIP as a team over the last 30 days is the top bullpen mark in the majors by more than a half run over that span. Ian Kinsler (98 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is affordable enough in the leadoff spot, while Mike Trout (173 wRC+, .242 ISO) and Justin Upton (189 wRC+, .374 ISO) hit RHP well as well. Upton also has a 292 wRC+ and 78.6 Hard% over the last week. Yet, there appear to be legimate reasons for Vegas’s lack of faith in the Angels’ offense tonight.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, Wade LeBlanc
Potential problem in one spot of interest tonight
The forecast for Monday night has been updated and the one spot where there could be some trouble may not be ideal for daily fantasy players. Read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get the latest forecasts from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Paul Goldschmidt has been the hottest hitter on the planet (458 wRC+, 81 Hard% last seven days)
Joe Musgrove’s .271 xwOBA is tops on the board tonight without an innings or starts qualifier. He’s certainly an option in what now may be a negative run environment in Arizona against an offense with a 77 wRC+ and 25.1 K% vs RHP. However, Paul Goldschmidt’s (113 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) accomplishments over the last week must be mentioned. They include a 458 wRC+ (29 PAs) with four HRs and an 81 Hard%. Goldy is far from cheap tonight, but another small edge could be that RHBs have a .339 wOBA (.334 xwOBA) against Musgrove since last season, which are above his .320 wOBA and .292 xwOBA against LHBs.
Other tagged players: Joe Musgrove Lucas Giolito has a board high .396 xwOBA and 90.5 mph aEV
The Cleveland Indians have a 5.59 implied run line that’s highest on the board by more than three-quarters of a run tonight. That they’ll have to accomplish this against Lucas Giolito without Edwin Encarnacion should be no great feat and may even add a bit of value to the lineup, though Greg Allen has not hit RHP very well (53 wRC+, .105 ISO career) and has a -66 wRC+ (14.3 Hard%) over the last week. Giolito has the highest xwOBA on the board (.396) by 58 points tonight. His 90.5 mph aEV is also a board high. Top Cleveland bats are expensive, but Michael Brantley (141 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (167 wRC+, .323 ISO) are two of the top overall bats on the board. Francisco Lindor (122 wRC+, .251 ISO) drops to the cleanup spot.
Other tagged players: Greg Allen, Lucas Giolito, Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor Junior Guerra has allowed he highest percentage of contact above a 95 mph EV (44%) on tonight's board
Junior Guerra has allowed just six HRs this season, but his 44% 95+ mph EV is worst on this board and along with a 38.9 GB% suggests the possibility of more long balls to come. The Cubs produce a lineup with three batters exceeding a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Kyle Schwarber (134 wRC+, .306 ISO) is the only one of a group including Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras to exceed a .240 ISO though. They bat three through six in the order tonight with a rejuvenated Jason Heyward (105 wRC+, .140 ISO) perhaps the top bargain, hitting ahead of them for $3.5K or less. Batters from either side have an xwOBA within three points of .350 against Guerra since last season.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Junior Guerra, Kyle Schwarber Dylan Bundy has allowed multiple HRs in five of his last eight starts
The Red Sox have a 4.59 implied run line that’s third highest on the board against a dangerous pitcher in Dylan Bundy, but that danger goes in two directions. His 27.5 K% and 14.6 SwStr% are both top two marks on the board tonight, but his 12.1% Barrels/BBE is a full three points higher than the second worst mark. That’s led to multiple HRs in five of his last eight starts with a total of 15 allowed over that span. While LHBs have a wOBA 73 points higher against him this season, RHBs have 11 of his 16 HRs surrendered. Playesr should be taking shots with select Boston bats, especially with Mookie Betts (128 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) back tonight. He, J.D. Martinez (168 wRC, .373 ISO), and Andrew Benintendi (137 wRC+, .213 ISO) all cost $5K+ on DK or $4.5K+ on FD with Mitch Moreland (111 wRC+, .240 ISO) about $1K less.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Dylan Bundy, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland