DFS Alerts
Top Pitcher on The Slate
Plain and simple, Price is not the same pitcher that he used to be. He’s walking guy more and K’ing guys less, but it’s also pretty obvious that he’s the best play on this slate.Over the last 3 starts, Price has posted lines of 25.9, 35.8, and 19.2. Price is still a good pitcher and he’s priced as a completely average one at just 6.8k on DK. Even after a tough start and a few early on blow ups, Price still owns a 22.8% K rate and a decent 4.59 xFIP (which is way higher than it should be when factoring the bad starts due to blisters). Price does draw a bad matchup against the Astros, but if anything that should keep his ownership low. Fade Price if you wish, but with his ability to go late into games and his K ability, you’re going to need a fairly cheap pitcher if you’re gonna throw in some Coors bats.
Two Aces, Take Your Choice
Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom headline the slate tonight. Their skills are virtually identical, at 32.8% K and a 2.84 SIERA for deGrom and 32.3% K and 2.90 SIERA for Verlander. Both guys are at the top of the league in limiting hard contact, and between the two of them, they have allowed just 6 runs in their last 13 starts combined. The matchups are similarly difficult for both tonight, and as such, I wouldn’t say that they are absolutely necessary in tournaments, but it’s still the place to start if possible. I am siding slightly with deGrom tonight, as he has been a little better recently with 35.6% K in the last month and comes at the lower salary.
A Great Pitching Value
On a slate with a number of high powered offenses in good spots (including a Coors game), Garrett Richards is a solid value pitching option that will allow you to afford some of the high-priced bats. Game-log watchers may be scared away by his last outing, but a rough outing on the road at Yankee Stadium is no reason for extreme concern. On the season, Richards has a solid 25.4 K%, and an extremely high GB rate at 52.4% – the fourth highest on the slate. Today he squares off against a Texas team that has the third-highest K% on the slate at 25.9% against RHP. The Rangers are also hurt by leaving the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Park, as they have a significantly lower team wOBA and ISO on the road. This all shapes up to be a nice bounce-back spot for Garrett Richards, supported by the fact that he and the Angels opened as -170 favorites. At only 8K on Fanduel and 7.1K on DraftKings, take advantage of the savings Richards provides and enjoy the bats he allows you to fit into your lineup.
Load up on Indians Lefties
Death, taxes, and Lance Lynn getting destroyed by lefties. Throughout his career Lynn has allowed a .345 wOBA to LH hitters, with only 16% soft contact and 1.12 HR/9. These splits have been even more extreme in his 2018 campaign, as Lynn has allowed a .402 wOBA and whopping 1.42 HR/9 to lefties so far this year. This will be a recipe for disaster against one of the most dangerous offenses in all of baseball in the Indians – a lineup anchored by all-star lefties. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez both stand out as great switch-hitting options who hit the vast majority of their HR’s when batting LH, with Lindor hitting 11 of his 14 HRs and Ramirez hitting 15 of his 18 HRs from the left side. Michael Brantley has also been on fire this year, particularly against RHP to the tune of a .415 wOBA and .244 ISO. Look at Yonder Alonso or Jason Kipnis to round out stacks here, and enjoy the fireworks today for this Indians offense.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley Tigers have a nice one-two punch vs LHP at the top of the lineup.
Both Jeimer Candelario (153 wRC+, .261 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (182 wRC+, .291 ISO) have hit LHP extremely well over the last calendar year and could be a nice one-two punch at the top of the lineup against Jaime Garcia tonight (RHBs .341 wOBA since 2017). If players wanted to consider a full stack, Miguel Cabrera (145 wRC+, .196 ISO) and James McCann (129 wRC+, .200 ISO) have had success as well with Candelario the only one of the four below a .390 xwOBA over that span.
Other tagged players: Jeimer Candelario, Jaime Garcia, James McCann, Miguel Cabrera
John Ryan Murphy leads the majors with 15.2% Barrels/PA (50 BBE min.)
On the whole, the Arizona offense is terrible against RHP (68 wRC+, 25.7 K%), but they are somehow projected by Vegas for 4.77 runs tonight. Elieser Hernandez has a 4.62 SIERA and .347 xwOBA in his few starts and the Miami bullpen has been terrible recently (negative K-BB% last 14 days). There may be a few at least average bats in the top half of the lineup, led by Jake Lamb (106 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) with only Paul Goldschmidt (104 wRC+, .194 ISO) costing above $4K on either site. Daniel Descalso (112 wRC+, .188 ISO) has surprisingly comparable numbers against RHP. John Ryan Murphy (85 wRC+, .277 ISO) leads the majors with 15.2% Barrels/PA this season (50 BBE min.).
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Daniel Descalso, Elieser Hernandez One potential problem spot in Friday night's forecast
Kevin’s Friday night forecast has been updated and there’s one potential problem spot that’s popped up since this morning. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get the latest info until lock on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Dodgers will "open" with Scott Alexander's 81.5 GB% against LHBs and then...
With the announcement that Scott Alexander will “open” the came in Colorado tonight, the Rockies have moved to the head of the line with a 5.85 implied run line. Alexander has not thrown more than 27 pitches in an outing. He and his 81.5 GB% against LHBs are there to say hello to Charlie Blackmon and perhaps Carlos Gonzalez, which gives Nolan Arenado (225 wRC+, .373 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) a single PA super advantage, but that might be it. The Dodgers may mix and match the remainder of the game with Dennis Santana potentially making his major league debut as part of that or not. He could pitch the majority of the game or none of it at all. The 22 year-old converted SS has exceeded a 30% strikeout rate in 50 combined innings at AA and AAA this season. This is a tough one. There are merits to both stacking this game or even fading. This is not a good offense and it may get even worse if the opposing team is going to optimize matchups all game. The park is the only saving grace. The Dodger bullpen as a whole have a 2.33 FIP and 20.7 K-BB% over the last two weeks.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Scott Alexander Lorenzo Cain owns a .559 xwOBA, 92.7 mph aEV and 19.8 LA in 26 career PAs against Hector Santiago
The Brewers have a fairly moderate 4.54 implied run line against Hector Santiago, against whom RHBs have a .361 xwOBA up 55 points from their actual .306 wOBA since last season, but LHBs have a .511 wOBA and .453 xwOBA. This is a perfectly stackable situation right through the first five or six batters. Lorenzo Cain is not only the top bat against LHP over the last calendar year (190 wRC+, .261 ISO), but he personally owns Santago. He does not have a HR in his 26 PAs against him, but four doubles, a .559 xwOBA, 92.7 mph aEV and 19.8 LA. If Santiago serves it up, Cain has generally crushed it. If considering the two LHBs, Christian Yelich (101 wRC+, .324 xwOBA) has had more recent success than Travis Shaw (77 wRC+, .245 xwOBA) against same-handed pitching.
Other tagged players: Hector Santiago, Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw Josh Harrison scratched Friday; Adam Frazier replaces
Harrison has been scratched from the Pittsburgh Pirates original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals due to flu-like symptoms. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Adam Frazier, who will play second base and slot directly into Harrison’s vacated leadoff spot in the order, which enables the remainder of the Pirates lineup to stay intact as they face off against right-hander Miles Mikolas on the road this evening.
As reported by: Bill Brink via Twitter
Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani both exceed a 180 wRC+ and .320 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year
Bartolo Colon, somehow, continues to be a useful major league pitcher, despite the fact that batters from either side have a wOBA and xwOBA between .348 and .360 against him since last season. The Angels have a fairly high 4.67 implied run line at home against him tonight. Skipping over Pujols, the remainder of the top five seem like solid plays with Ian Kinsler (84 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) showing recent life (190 wRC+ last seven days) and costing within $300 of $3K on either site. Mike Trout (188 wRC+, .338 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (183 wRC+, .325 ISO) continue to destroy RHP.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Albert Pujols, Ian Kinsler, Bartolo Colon Justin Turner (231 wRC+, .489 xwOBA vs LHP last calendar year) may be the top bat on the board at Coors
The Dodgers (5.65) have one of the top three implied run lines on the board, as one would expect at Coors tonight with the fourth highest run line more than a half run lower. Aside from Max Muncy, they line up entirely right-handed against Tyler Anderson, against whom RHBs have a .343 wOBA, but a more moderate .319 xwOBA (which assumes a neutral park). Justin Turner (231 wRC+, .489 xwOBA, .404 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the top bat in the lineup. Chris Taylor (104 wRC+, .171 ISO), Matt Kemp (104 wRC+, .402 xwOBA, .131 ISO), Kike Hernandez (119 wRC+, .246 ISO) and Austin Barnes (129 wRC+, .202 ISO) can be liberally employed by players as well, the latter two below $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Chris Taylor, Tyler Anderson, Matt Kemp, Enrique Hernandez, Austin Barnes Batters have a .481 xwOBA against Andrew Cashner's most frequently thrown pitch this year (sinker 37.7%)
Andrew Cashner has allowed fewer than three runs just once over his last eight starts. His .400 xwOBA is worst on the board and he’s facing the Yankees in Baltimore tonight. They are clearly one of the three favorites on the board with an implied run line between 5.5 and six runs. No other team is above 5.1. Cashner throws a sinker 37.7% of the time, more than any other pitch and batters have a .481 xwOBA against it this season. It’s not allowed him to generate ground balls against batters from either side of the plate more than 43% of the time this year. The Yankees should light him up tonight. Aaron Judge (180 wRC+, .351 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top overall bat and probably a good value at any cost. Brett Gardner (117 wRC+, .162 ISO) has a lineup leading 253 wRC+ over the last seven days and has a reasonable price tag (just $3.1K on FanDuel). Kevin’s forecast is much more forgiving tonight and even favorable for hitters in this game.
Other tagged players: Brett Gardner, Andrew Cashner LHBs have a .362 wOBA against Mike Foltynewicz since last season
The Nationals have found five left-handed bats to utilize against Mike Foltynewicz, who has allowed batters a .362 wOBA (.350 xwOBA) from that side of the plate since last year. That comes with just a 32.9 GB%. Bryce Harper (162 wRC+, .322 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a great overall OF bat tonight. Matt Adams (144 wRC+, .304 ISO) may have just as much value at a much more moderate price.
Other tagged players: Mike Foltynewicz, Matt Adams Batters from either side of the plate have a .344 wOBA against Ian Kennedy since last season
Oakland has a 5.01 implied run line that stands alone as the fourth highest mark on the board without a team within two-tenths of a run in either direction. On the plus side, batters from either side have a .344 wOBA (and higher xwOBA) against fly ball and home run prone Ian Kennedy since last season, while the lineup features five batters (Matt Joyce, Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson) with at least a 110 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. All except Lowrie (.181) are also above a .220 ISO. On the negative side, Matt Olson (150 wRC+, .324 ISO) is the only one of the five above a 40 wRC+ over the last week (138 wRC+, 57.9%). This is a spot players will want some exposure to none the less for sheer power potential. Matt Joyce (132 wRC+, .253 ISO) costs right around $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman, Matt Joyce, Ian Kennedy