DFS Alerts
Frankie Montas shined in his first major league start, but struggled with LHBs
Frankie Montas threw six strong innings at the Diamondbacks in his first career start, allowing just one run with seven strikeouts. He’s been a well regarded prospect in the past, but it’s been suggested that he could wind up with platoon problems which could ultimately push him to the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combo can play up. In fact, he threw those pitches 96.3% of the time in his first start with the 16 LHBs he faced generating a .435 wOBA (.440 xwOBA) and 35.2 Hard% against him. Jon Jay (100 wRC+, .089 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in a low priced leadoff spot and Mike Moustakas (128 wRC+, .276 ISO) are certainly worth a shot.
Other tagged players: Jon Jay, Frankie Montas
Opposing batters have a .502 xwOBA (93.3 mph aEV) against Sonny Gray's' four-seam fastball this year
Sonny Gray has just not shown any type of consistency this season. His .369 xwOBA is sixth worst on the board tonight and he hasn’t been able to string together more than two straight quality starts this year. He’s allowed six HRs over his last seven starts and has struck out more than five just three times this year. The four-seam fastball is the pitch he’s thrown the most often and while the whiff rate has actually increased to 22% this season, it has a .502 xwOBA and 93.3 mph aEV overall. Manny Machado (129 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mark Trumbo (75 wRC+ .155 ISO) both hit that pitch and the sinker, which Gray also throws often, above a .380 wOBA since 2016 (according to PlateIQ). Gray has struggled with same-handed batters (.322 wOBA/.336 xwOBA) more than lefties (.288 wOBA/.318 xwOBA) since last season, which may not be a good omen against a predominantly right-handed Baltimore lineup, though they have a team 80 wRC+ and 18 K-BB% vs RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Mark Trumbo, Sonny Gray Brandon Nimmo (164 wRC+, .245 ISO) continues to provide value (three HRs last seven days) at low ownership rates
Tyler Chatwood has a 7.1 SwStr% that does not support his 19.8 K% and his walk rate is even higher (20.3%). Brandon Nimmo (164 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP) continues to go criminally unnoticed by the daily fantasy community and is just now having his cost reach exactly $4K on DraftKings. He’s still under-priced (183 wRC+, 45.8 Hard% last seven days). He’s virtually assured of at least a walk or two and has been piling up extra base hits over the last week, including three HRs. Michael Conforto (148 wRC+, .227 ISO) has been hitting the ball well recently too (192 wRC+). Not a single Mets’ bat costs more than $4K on either site as they face a pitcher who has allowed LHBs a .361 wOBA (.352 xwOBA too, so Coors can’t be blamed) since last season.
Other tagged players: Tyler Chatwood, Michael Conforto Cheap left-handed value atop a Cubs lineup with a 4.62 Vegas run line tonight
Zack Wheeler has some peripherals (24.6 K% last 30 days) and Statcast numbers (86.2 mph aEV) that might make him interesting at a low cost tonight, but the Cubs still lie on the top half of the board with a 4.62 implied run line tonight. He has struggled with LHBs since last season (.355 wOBA, 40.9 Hard%, 40.4 GB%), which makes a top half of the lineup lefty stack containing Ben Zobrist (100 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jason Heyward (96 wRC+, .132 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (140 wRC+, .228 ISO) of some interest, should he have his usual blow up inning. Two of the three cost below $4K on either site tonight.
Other tagged players: Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Zack Wheeler Dominant against Righties
Taillon has a high ERA this season, but is due for some positive regression. In 11 starts, he has a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. In addition to good control, he’s one of the best at inducing soft and medium contact. Even though he’s pitching on the road, this matchup really sets up well for Taillon. He has held right-handed hitters to a .247 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate and he’ll likely face at least seven righties tonight. It doesn’t hurt that the projected lineup for the Cardinals has a .306 xwOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Only Ace with a Good Matchup
Pivetta was on the wrong side of far too many DFS Twitter jokes last season, even though he had a great track record in the minors. He is proving that he’s no laughing matter this year by posting a 3.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a walk rate of 6%. He has done a nice job of limiting hard contact and he sees a significant ballpark bump playing in San Francisco. The Giants have some firepower in their lineup, but they also strike out at a higher rate than in the past. Their projected lineup has a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Top Pitcher With Top Pitching Ump
Gerrit Cole has been an absolute freak this year with a 26.8% K rate, and despite a tough matchup on paper against the Red Sox, he gets notorious pitching friendly Phil Cuzzi behind the plate. That gives him sneaky high K upside at lower ownership.
Daily Bullpen Alert: Many pitchers averaging around or below five innings per start on Friday
There are seven pitchers on tonight’s slate averaging right around or fewer than five innings per start this year. A few of those spots are easy enough to skip further analysis on. The Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball (22.5 K-BB%, 3.16 FIP) behind Sonny Gray and bullpens in Coors just don’t matter enough to make much of a difference (though both teams are strong in that area). Jaime Garcia completed six innings for the first time since his first start last time out. The Blue Jays have a 4.16 FIP that’s seventh worst in baseball, but with a mediocre 13.4 K-BB%. Jaime Barria has a chance to go deeper than usual in a strong spot against the Rangers, but the Angels have similar pen numbers to the Jays (4.07 FIP, 13.7 K-BB%). Elieser Hernandez has averaged exactly five innings in three starts. The Miami bullpen has a 4.46 FIP and 10.4 K-BB% and have been even worse than that recently (5.40 FIP, -1.6 K-BB% last 14 days) if players have any interest in Arizona bats. Tyler Chatwood has been walking himself right out of the park (20.3 BB%!!). The Cubs back him with one of the stronger pens by FIP (3.51), but their 12.6 K-BB% is less impressive. Hector Santiago has gone beyond five innings in just one of five starts. The damage may already be done by the time it gets to a pen that’s been halfway decent (3.99 FIP, 13.2 K-BB%), but is not one to fear.
Mike Leake has a 60.7 GB% over his last four starts and throws a pitch (cutter) the Rays are worst in the majors against (-9.5 wCT)
Pitchers priced below $5K on DraftKings are not meant to make one feel comfortable, but all four that fit that description may be usable in support of a high priced arm. Mike Leake hasn’t been great, but has pitched into the seventh inning in three of four starts and has a 60.7 GB% in that span. His xwOBA is finally below .400 and his aEV is nearly below 90 mph (90.4) with a hard hit rate below 40% in five of his last six starts. While we know that the Rays hit fastballs well (21.1 wFB), they are below average against sliders and cutters. In fact, he throws the cutter second most often this year (21.9%) and the Rays have a worse composite mark (-9.5 wCT) than any team in the majors against that pitch. Austin Pruitt is a near minimum priced pitcher who will garner nearly no ownership because he’s not officially listed as the starter tonight. He’s not going to overwhelm, but will miss the top half of the order in Seattle first time through. Elieser Hernandez just has an elite matchup at a near minimum cost in Arizona (68 wRC+, 25.7 K% vs RHP), even if his own numbers are not that encouraging (12.9 K%, 8.6 SwStr%, .347 xwOBA, 4.62 SIERA). Dennis Santana makes his debut in Coors (not good) and the Dodgers have declared this a potential bullpen game (not good), but he costs $4K and could give them enough reason to let him go for a while. The 22 year-old converted SS has exceeded a 30% strikeout rate in 50 combined innings at AA and AAA this season
Other tagged players: Austin Pruitt, Elieser Hernandez, Dennis Santana Several potential value arms in the mid-cost range on Friday
While they might not light up the scoreboard, Friday night’s board features a number of reasonably priced pitchers who may, in fact, be under-priced on one site or another. Jameson Taillon is above average by peripherals (15.2 K-BB%) and manages contact well enough to generate an xwOBA below .300. His .290 (49.7 GB%) mark is actually third best on the board among those with more than three starts. His overall numbers aren’t much worse than Jose Berrios, who costs quite a bit more in a much tougher matchup. Taillon is in a pitcher’s park in St Louis (94 wRC+, 15 K-BB% vs RHP) and costs just $6.8K on DraftKings. Zack Wheeler has gone six innings in four of his last five starts. His 24.6 K% over the last month and an 86.2 mph aEV this year that are both top quarter of tonight’s board. His ERA is above five due to a .331 BABIP, completely unsupported by anything in his BABIP or contact profiles, and a 66 LOB%. The matchup is not ideal against the Cubs (110 wRC+, 10.3 K-BB%), but there would still seem to be some value in a $6K price tag on DraftKings. Jaime Barria ($6.8K on FanDuel) allowed more than two runs in a start for the first time last time out at Yankee Stadium. He’s had an impressive swinging strike rate of 13.5% or better in three straight starts and a significant park and matchup upgrade in hosting the Rangers (83 wRC+, 25.9 K% vs RHP). Tyler Mahle throws a four-seam fastball 68% of the time. The pitch has allowed seven HRs, but has just a .305 xwOBA with a 23.5 Whiff%. His slider (20.5%) has a 31.6 Whiff%, but four HRs and a .496 xwOBA. The Padres (81 wRC+, 26.3 K% vs RHP) have a -10.9 wFB that’s bottom seven in baseball. Their -26.9 wSL is easily the worst! He costs just $6.1K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Zack Wheeler, Tyler Mahle, Jaime Barria Chris Sale faces Gerrit Cole in a matchup pitting the top two pitchers on the board against each other in Houston
There are five pitchers above $9K on both sites tonight, three of which are above $10K on both. The premium matchup is Chris Sale vs Gerrit Cole in Houston. Despite the home pitcher owning the higher strikeout rate (39.4 to 34.8%), the visitor has a higher SwStr% by more than a point and more than three points over the last month (16.3% to 13%). Sale gets the edge in matchup too (Astros 118 wRC+, 21.3 K% vs LHP – Red Sox 120 wRC+, 18.3 K% vs RHP). Neither spot is ideal, but the run environment is fairly negative and they remain the top two arms on the board. Perhaps that will allow Stephen Strasburg to fly under the radar with a 28.6 K% and ERA plus estimators just above three against the Braves (100 wRC+, 20.6 K% vs RHP). He carries the highest price tag on DraftKings by $500 though. Carlos Carrasco has struggled in recent starts with a 4.98 ERA in May. His estimators, along with a 26.9 K% (13.3 SwStr%) remains much better. His changeup has been hit a bit harder this year with increases in xwOBA, aEV and LA. He didn’t allow a single HR with the pitch last year (two already this season). Whiff% is actually slightly up on the pitch though. He still has the same upside in Minnesota against an offense with a 90 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs RHP. Jose Berrios has been on fire over his last three starts (22.2 IP – 13 H – 5 R – 2 HR – 4 BB – 27 K – 84 BF) and costs just over $9K on either site, but faces an offense that has been equally hot (Cleveland 155 wRC+, 17.5 K%, 21.1 HR/FB last seven days). Nick Pivetta reaches $10K on DraftKings, but costs much less on FanDuel. He has at least seven strikeouts in four straight and has solved his issues against RHBs (.249 wOBA, 29.1 K-BB%) behind the strength of a curveball and slider that each have an xwOBA below .190 and whiff rate above 30% according to Statcast. He pitches in San Francisco against a predominantly right-handed offense that has a 17.7 K-BB% against right-handed pitchers this year.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Carrasco, Jose Berrios, Nick Pivetta Cheap Pop
Dietrich went yard Thursday night and will likely lead off again for the Marlins against Clay Buchholz in Arizona. Dietrich has an above average offensive skill-set against right handed pitchers with a career 113 wRC+ and some good pop (.180 ISO). We don’t have nearly a big enough sample to truly know what kind of pitcher Buchholz is at this stage in his career but odds are that he’s well below average, despite his 1.64 ERA through two starts this year. I like the idea of picking on Buchholz with cheap lefty options (Dietrich + Bour) and then filling in your lineup from there.
Favorable Environment
Hector Santiago is the owner of the 8th highest barrels/plate appearance (8.2) of all pitchers with at least 100 batted ball events. A result of those hard hit balls has been a ton of HRs allowed so far this season – 10 HRs in 44.1 IP. Perez is far from a wizard with the bat but he should bat towards the middle of the Brewers order and represents a cheap option in a favorable run scoring environment. As a side note, I typically try to avoid hitters with risk of getting pinch hit for, but Perez has been getting a full complement of ABs his last handful of starts.
The DL Discount
These prices are simply too low for Greg Bird. Bird remains discounted due to his recent return from the DL but gets a prime matchup against Andrew Cashner in Camden on Friday night. Bird is an above average offensive player (strikes out a lot) with a ton of power (season long projections have him ~ .240 ISO) that’s hitting in the middle of the Yankees order on a night where they have the highest implied run total on the slate. Don’t overthink this one – lock him into your cash game lineups.
Cheap But Good
There are some bad pitchers on Friday that are in play as cheap SP2 options (Mike Leake, Sonny Gray, Jaime Garcia etc) and then there’s Jameson Taillon, who is also cheap, but actually a good pitcher. Taillon also gets a benefit that most of these other cheap options don’t have – not having to face a DH. There’s no doubt Taillon has been roughed up on occasion this year but his advanced metrics look solid (3.83 SIERA, 22.1 K%, 27.1 Soft%) and the Cardinals offense isn’t threatening (23.2 K%; 94 wRC+ vs RHP).