DFS Alerts
A little too cheap.. Again
Marco Gonzales stands out as a potential pay down at SP2 against the K happy Rays in Seattle. I have been using Marco and have been extremely happy with the results recently. The k rate is a little lower than we’d like but the Rays 23.4 % K rate vs lefties should help and at just 6k in a good matchup, I think Gonzales has an excellent shot at 20 DK points tonight. So.. If you are playing big bats, Coors or otherwise, Gonzales is one guy who will help you get to the ones you want.
Bats heating up in the desert
The Diamondbacks have scored 25 runs over the past 3 games and look to be in a nice spot again tonight against Caleb Smith and that awful Marlins bullpen. Smith has been very good this year but can get wild at times and I still like the matchup for the Arizona righties.. Since the start of last season the Nick Ahmed, Paul Goldschmidt and John Ryan Murphy all have ISO’s over .280 vs the opposite hand. They have been particularly good at home with the roof open so make sure to check before gametime as the ball will carry much better in that heat if the roof is open. I’m not sure whether I’m fully stacking against Smith or mini stacking but at these prices and what should be low ownership, Owings, Goldschmidt, Ahmed and Murphy will be in a fair share of my lineups tonight.
Other tagged players: Nick Ahmed, John Ryan Murphy, Chris Owings The Old Guys Comes To Play
Yes, he’s old. Like real old. Like retirement home old, but on the year he’s actually playing pretty well. We may not have a huge sample size, but on 31 AB’s vs. LHP, Bautita owns a great .292 ISO and .380 wOBA. He draws a matchup against Montgomery who, although he may not give up a lot of bombs, does not strike out a whole lot of guys and walks a decent amount too. The whether in NY should be pretty hot and humid today and at just 3.3K Bautista is way too cheap for batting 3rd in the order. Play him to save some money for some Coors bats.
Ride The Hot Hand
Look, for most of the season, Kinsler has been trash, but over the last 4 games, Kinsler has 16, 13, 10, and 32 DK points. Kinsler is getting hot and if you look back to his numbers since the beginning of last year he still owns a decent .201 ISO and .322 wOBA. He’s batting at the top of the lineup and draws a matchup against one of the worst pitchers vs. righties. Hamels since 2017 owns a 40.3% hard hit rate and a .184 ISO vs. righties. At $3,200 Kinsler is pretty much a lock for cash games and one of the better GPP play on the slate.
Just Too Cheap For Leadoff
Kinsler has sprung to life after a rough start to the season, and is way too cheap for his leadoff spot on this slate. Cole Hamels has shown some strikeout abiltiy this season, but it’s tailed off recently, and even if it comes back, contact is the least of our concerns with Kinsler and his 11% K rate against lefties. Hamels cannot control batted balls to righties and he’s likely to run into trouble against this high contact, right-handed heavy lineup.
Price + No DH
By now you guys should know the drill. If you have two pitchers that project similarly you 1) Take the one that is cheaper and 2) Take the one that doesn’t have to face a DH. If you follow those two basic steps you’re left with Jacob deGrom over Justin Verlander. Both pitchers have tough matchups against teams that don’t strikeout much and are well above average offensively but both pitchers have been dominant this year – both guys own a strikeout rate north of 32% and they own the league’s lowest xwOBA against (.240 deGrom; .229 Verlander). No Mookie is certainly a plus for Verlander but I still give deGrom the slight advantage due to price + no DH.
Cheap Power
If you want to get an ace pitcher and some Dodgers bats, we’ll need to save some money somewhere. The Reds are one of the next in line offenses behind the Dodgers, facing fly baller Eric Lauer who has allowed a .214 ISO and .420 wOBA to right-handed batters through his first seven career starts. Duvall is just smashing the ball this season against lefties with a 55% hard hit rate and .348 ISO. Since the start of 2017, he has a homer every 12.3 AB against lefties.
Tough Matchup, but Great Hitter
Bour is a guy that I target often. He is always underpriced and since he bat’s in a bad lineup, oftentimes he goes underowned. Today is not different. Bour is one of the top hitters on the slate and is priced at a tiny 3.2k over on DK. He does draw a matchup against Greinke, who is one of the better pitchers on the slate, but there is one thing that Greinke has a problem with. Greinke gives up a lot of hard contact. One the year, Greinke gives up a 44.2% hard hit rate and a 40.6% FB rate. Bour on the other hand owns a .272 ISO and a .506 CXwOBA. Bour is due for some positive regression and already has 10 HR’s on the year. If you want to fit in some Coors bats, then Bour might be your best option.
Don't Overthink It Tonight
This is a pitching heavy slate, and as such, we have one obvious offense at the top, the Dodgers in Coors Field against German Marquez. The only case to fade Dodgers is ownership. Marquez is not terrible and the bullpen is good, it’s just that there’s nothing else out there tonight. Joc Pederson should be hitting at the top of the lineup against the low strikeouts of Marquez. While the power hasn’t shown up for Pederson, he is showing outstanding plate skills with 16% K and 12% walks. His on base and run scoring upside is huge here tonight.
Algo Malfunction
The sites’ pricing algorithm seems to malfunction any time it sees the name ‘Garrett Richards’. Richards hasn’t had many “wow” moments this year but aside from his two starts against the Yankees he has been a consistent fantasy producer for his price tag. Including his two blowup starts agains the Yankees, Richards is around the league average with a 4.09 SIERA but has flashed strong strikeout upside with a 25.6% strikeout rate. Unlike the Yankees, the Rangers represent a very favorable matchup for Richards as they have the third highest strikeout rate in the league versus RHP (25.8 K%) and own the sixth worst wRC+ (82). As is typically the case, it makes sense to pay up for your cash game SP on FanDuel (deGrom) but Richards makes for a fine secondary option there and is my favorite SP2 option on multi-SP sites.
Don't Overthink It Tonight
This is a pitching heavy slate, and as such, we have one obvious offense at the top, the Dodgers in Coors Field against German Marquez. The only case to fade Dodgers is ownership. Marquez is not terrible and the bullpen is good, it’s just that there’s nothing else out there tonight. Justin Turner hits in the middle of the top offense of the night with elite contact skills and is a strong play on all sites in all formats.
This Guy Is Priced Way Too Low
For the life of me, I can’t figure out why Suarez is priced so Low. He’s one of the cheapest pitchers on the slate, but he’s pitching in the best pitchers ballpark in the league, is facing a team without their best hitter (Hoskins) and has good numbers thus far this year. On the year, Suarez owns a 3.53 xFIP, 23.9% K%, 5.2% BB rate. He doesn’t do anything bad really outside of his hard hit rate, which is largely negated by the ballpark. The only real worry you have going against this Phillies team is walks (and Suarez does not have control issues thus far this year). Suarez is the best point per dollar play on the entire slate and the only real reason to fade him is ownership (which I am expecting to be high).
No Platoon, No Problem
I feel like I am doing a disservice to you all by writing two of my three blurbs on Dodger hitters but that’s just the reality of Saturday’s main slate. I also figured it would be a good time to point out that Justin Turner excels against same handed pitching. Some people would refer to Turner as a “reverse splits” hitter but the reality is he’s just a darn good hitter period. With that said, Turner’s numbers are impressive, and slightly better, against RHP – he owns a career 129 wRC+ and .170 ISO. Turner is too cheap for his skill-set + spot in the order and is a cash game lock provided he in fact is in the lineup on Saturday night.
Too Cheap
Kinsler hasn’t scored less than 10 DK points in his last four games yet remains a mere $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel. With Cozart still DTD and unlikely to play Saturday night it seems likely that Kinsler will continue to lead off for the Angels and will have the platoon advantage against Cole Hamels. While Hamels is an above average lefty, Kinsler performs well when he has the platoon advantage – he owns a career 131 wRC+ and .202 ISO versus southpaws.
Snooze Fest
Saturday’s main slate is shaping up to be a bit of a snooze fest. Outside of Coors, the team with the highest implied run total (4.6) is the Angels squaring off against Cole Hamels. The lack of favorable offensive environments makes cash game construction straight forward – load up on Dodgers hitters. Cody Bellinger is my favorite of the bunch but it’s worth noting that virtually all left-handed Dodger bats come with some sort of pinch hit risk (you suck Dave Roberts).