DFS Alerts
Three high priced pitchers, all in good to great spots
Max Scherzer is the only pitcher on the main slate above $10K on both sites and he’s in a great spot in Baltimore (82 wRC+, 17.6 K-BB% vs RHP). Perhaps his flop in Miami last time out will lower ownership, but his streak of at least six innings in every start remains intact and it was the first time he failed to strike out at least seven. He leads the board in every important consideration (38.2 K%, 16.7 SwStr%, .260 xwOBA) by a wide margin among those who have been starters all season. James Paxton and Shohei Ohtani are each above $11K on DraftKings, but between $9-10K on FanDuel. Paxton has two complete games in his last five starts and two others with seven innings and double digit strikeouts. His 32.7 K% is second best and his xwOBA (.295) remains below .300 despite a 9.8% Barrels/BBE mark that’s second highest on the board. He, too, is in a great spot at home against the Rangers (95 wRC+, 26 K% vs LHP). Ohtani hasn’t pitched in 10 days, but has exceeded 100 pitches in each of his last two starts (20 Ks, 54 BF). His 32.3 K% is just behind Paxton and his 15.4 SwStr% is second best on the board. His 3.2% Barrels/BBE is lowest among those who have started all season. The matchup with the Tigers (90 wRC+, 20.6 K%) in a positive run environment in Detroit, may actually be the most difficult of the three from a daily fantasy perspective, but all three are fine choices with tremendous upside.
Other tagged players: James Paxton, Shohei Ohtani
Still A Lefty Masher
There seems to be a narrative that Nelson Cruz has slipped against lefties, but I don’t see it. We know the long-term track record, and so far this season, he has an unfortunate .222 BABIP against lefties despite a 41% hard hit rate and below average strikeouts. With all due non-respect to Derek Holland, Matt Moore is the worst lefty on this slate, with low strikeouts, and no ability to limit fly balls or hard contact.
Marcell Ozuna scratched Wednesday; Tyler O'Neill replaces
Ozuna has been scratched from the St. Louis Cardinals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers due to a currently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Tyler O’Neill, who will play left field and slot directly into Ozuna’s vacated cleanup spot in the order, which enables the remainder of the Cardinals lineup to stay intact as they face off against right-hander Junior Guerra on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Jeff Jones via Twitter
Jarrod Dyson is another cheap leadoff bat this afternoon against Sal Romano (5.7 SwStr%, .361 xwOBA)
The Diamondbacks (5.03) are the last of three teams above five implied runs this afternoon against Sal Romano, who has walked 12 of his last 71 batters and allowed at least five runs in three straight starts. He has a 5.7 SwStr% and .361 xwOBA for the season. Jarrod Dyson (85 wRC+, .109 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) may be the top value at a low cost out of the leadoff spot. Paul Goldschmidt (103 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Jake Lamb (114 wRC+, .225 ISO) are the top overall bats in the lineup right behind him. Players need to consider that Arizona is no longer the offensive haven it once was and David Peralta (109 wRC+, .178 ISO) is the only other hitter in the lineup above a 75 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Sal Romano Greg Allen (< $3K) leads off for the top projected offense (5.75 runs) on the early slate
Cleveland has the top run line on the early slate (5.75) and like other highly regarded offenses this afternoon, they too are sitting one of their top bats (Francisco Lindor). That puts Greg Allen (48 wRC+, .100 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in the leadoff spot against Reynaldo Lopez for less than $3K on either site. Lopez has some talent, but has been very inconsistent (three or fewer strikeouts in five of last seven starts, 6.4 K-BB% for the season). His ERA is well below estimators due to a .218 BABIP and 16.7% of his season run total being unearned. He has a standard split since last season with LHBs (.331 wOBA, .365 xwOBA) garnering more success than RHBs (.275 wOBA, .321 xwOBA). Michael Brantley (143 wRC+, .213 ISO), Jose Ramirez (163 wRC+, .305 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (139 wRC+, .267 ISO) and Yonder Alonso (125 wRC+, .199 ISO) all grade out strongly, though may inhibit the ability to afford Kluber if that’s the chosen path. Even Jason Kipnis (75 wRC+, .160 ISO) has been hitting the ball well lately (138 wRC+, .39.1 Hard% last seven days).
Other tagged players: Reynaldo Lopez, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis Not a single St Louis bat even reaches $4K on either site against Junior Guerra (90.1 mph aEV)
The Cardinals have a 4.32 Vegas run line that’s fourth among eight teams on the afternoon slate, but well more than a half run behind the third highest team. This could have the effect of depressing the ownership of a few bats with some potential against Junior Guerra, who has an ERA well over a run below his estimators due to a .250 BABIP, 81.1 LOB% and 8.8 HR/FB. His 90.1 mph aEV that’s second worst for the entire day, resulting in a .348 xwOBA, may paint a more accurate picture. While batters from either side of the plate have exactly a .327 wOBA against him since last season, xwOBA raises both above .350. Both have a ground ball rate below 40%, RHBs have a hard hit rate above that. Matt Carpenter (130 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a premium play for less than $4K on either site. He has a 226 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week. Jose Martinez (121 wRC+, .155 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (122 wRC+, .208 ISO) are reasonable plays at a similar or cheaper cost as well. In fact, without Tommmy Pham in the lineup, not a single St Louis bat reaches $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Junior Guerra, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna Without Mookie Betts again, the Red Sox still generate a 5.53 implied run line against Sam Gaviglio
The Red Sox are again without Mookie Betts this afternoon. None the less, a lineup without a batter above a 91 wRC+ or .160 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year beyond the five spot in today’s lineup has the second highest implied run line (5.53) on this afternoon’s board. Sam Gaviglio has struck out 12 of 46 batters in two starts, allowing just three runs in 11.1 innings against the Phillies and A’s. He struck out 26.9% in 29 AAA innings as well this season, but hasn’t previously been above 20% at any leve since 2014. The only change to his pitch mix has been a few more sliders at the expense of the curveball early on. He has a 4.9% Barrels/BBE at the major league level this year, but with a 41.5% 95+ mph EV. He has no real platoon split with batters from either side within a point of a .340 wOBA since last season, though he generates a few more ground balls against RHBs. Andrew Benintendi (130 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (161 wRC+, .362 ISO) are the most attractive Boston bats, while Xander Bogaerts (89 wRC+, .171 ISO), Rafel Devers (89 wRC+, .190 ISO) and Eduardo Nunez (113 wRC+, .164 ISO) should garner interest as well.
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Sam Gaviglio, Rafael Devers, Eduardo Nunez, Xander Bogaerts Alex Reyes has struck out 26 of his last 49 batters faced in minor league rehab starts (AA/AAA)
Each of the four afternoon slate games (three on FanDuel) have at least one interesting pitcher. Three of the games have one team implied for more than five runs with the other below three. Corey Kluber is the most expensive pitcher on the board. He’s gone at least six innings in every start and has pitched into the seventh in all but one. He’s struck out more than seven just three times since his first start though. His 2.17 ERA remains well below his estimators due to a .236 BABIP and 89.6 LOB%, though his xwOBA (.295) is still a top five mark for the entire day among those with more than a single start. The White Sox have been better than expected offensively, but have a 16.3 K-BB% vs RHP. Even over the last month, Patrick Corbin has a higher strikeout (27.7% to 23.5%) and swinging strike (11.2% to 10.9%) than Kluber. His .276 xwOBA for the season is also 19 points lower. He’s in a somewhat neutral spot against the Reds, who do have the highest walk split on the board (10.9% vs LHP). He costs well over $1K less than Kluber on either site. Costing less than $8K on either site, Eduardo Rodriguez has the highest strikeout rate of the three over the last month (30.4%). His .297 xwOBA is just two points above Kluber. He faces an offense that has performed at a below average rate against LHP (90 wRC+, 22.6 K%), but in the worst run environment of the afternoon at Fenway. Top prospect Alex Reyes makes his season debut after Tommy John surgery for the Cardinals this afternoon as well. Fangraphs gives his fastball a 70 grade and suggests he may be a top 20 prospect in the game with a 60 Future Value grade overall. He’s made four rehab starts at four different levels, striking out at least 40% of batters faced in each game. His last two starts at AA and AAA: 14.2 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 4 BB – 26 K – 49 BF. He costs just $7K against the Brewers (24.5 K% vs RHP) and may be the play of them all for $7K or less.
Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Patrick Corbin, Eduardo Rodriguez A Lot Of Upside In This Great Matchup
First base is always a loaded position and it always leads to low ownership for Ryon Healy. He’s one of my favorite plays on the entire slate, and we get him at a really nice discount. He has a .234 ISO with a .371 wOBA against left-handed hitters since the start of 2017. In 37 PAs this season, he has a .324 ISO with a .378 wOBA. This isn’t the greatest ballpark, but it’s hard not to pick on Matt Moore, who has a .388 wOBA with a .179 ISO and a 16.3% strikeout rate against righties this season. His hard to soft contact ratio is 33.9% against righties. I think Seattle is sneaky tonight, and I love this price on Healy in particular.
Talented Young Hitter
I’m really hoping Dustin Peterson cracks the lineup for the Braves tonight. He has a .347 wOBA with a 120 wRC+ in AAA this season and is starting to show a lot more power. His ISO is up 51 points to start this season compared to his numbers at AA in 2016. Jason Vargas is awful, so I’m willing to play any hitter in this lineup against him. He has a .442 wOBA with a .261 ISO and a 37.7% hard hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. Vargas has shown decent strikeout stuff, but not enough to scare me off Peterson at this price tag.
Lefties, Lefties, Lefties!
We all know the drill when it comes to targeting bats against Julio Teheran; you target all the lefties you possibly can. Even though Teheran’s wOBA splits are neutral this year, the advanced data shows the usual trends. He’s allowing a lot more hard contact and fly balls to left-handed batters, so the current wOBA results are generally just a result of BABIP luck. Eventually, left-handers will start doing their usual damage, and I like the Mets as a sneaky stack here. Fire up all the outfielders and Asdrubal Cabrera as great GPP options tonight, as they have power upside, and Nimmo in particular has been locked in at the plate as a great fill-in for Yoenis Cespedes.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera
The Obvious Spot for Offense
The Rockies are the obvious offense that everyone will target tonight, and while you can make a case for a GPP fade because of high ownership, we saw how that can backfire last night as the Rockies put up double digits against Jeff Samardzija and company. Derek Holland remains solid against left-handed bats, so I am not all that interested in Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, and Gerardo Parra tonight, but I am interested in the right-handed bats. Holland is allowing hard contact to RHBs at a 44% clip, and the Rockies have plenty of power RHBs that are capable of smashing lefties. Arenado and Story are very strong plays here, while Noel Cuevas and Ian Desmond provide exposure with a little bit of salary relief. Cuevas is a very strong value play if he grabs the #2 batting order spot tonight, as he did against a lefty the other day.
Other tagged players: Noel Cuevas, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond Attacking a Declining Lefty
Matt Moore is somehow back in our lives as a starter for Texas. I did not expect him to be back in the rotation when he returned from the disabled list, but here we are. Moore is the proud owner of ugly splits this year that include an ERA over 7.00, an xFIP near 6.00, and a 47% hard contact rate allowed. His walk rate is up over 10%, and his strikeouts are declining for the third straight year. I love the idea of a Seattle stack here. Jean Segura has been playing well of late, while Mitch Haniger leads the team with a .444 wOBA and .232 ISO against left-handed pitching (among qualified players). Ryon Healy has also shown some pop in his limited sample size. This could be a matchup for Nelson Cruz to get back to his lefty-mashing ways, as well. Matt Moore is awful, so fire up your Seattle GPP plays here.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Guillermo Heredia, Ryon Healy, Mitch Haniger Keep On Attacking The Attackable
My entire Core on DK/FRDFT is going to be Rockies hitters at home against Derek Holland with his huge hard hit rate allowed. His only moderate skill is 23% strikeouts to righties this season, but he will lose effectiveness on his curveball in this altitude, and is likely to be left with hard hit balls in play just praying for his fielders to make plays. Ian Desmond should get a prime lineup spot with runners on base all around him at a very reasonable salary. His batting average looks ugly, but a .208 BABIP has nowhere to go but up, and with nine home runs already this season, he still has plenty of upside.
Still Your Top Ace in GPP Formats
It feels like a lot of people will pivot to James Paxton for the salary savings tonight, and that might keep ownership in check on Max Scherzer. If that is the case, it is music to my ears in GPP formats. Even though Scherzer wasn’t as sharp in his last outing, he still owns a 38% strikeout rate and 2.33 SIERA on the year. He’ll be just fine, and there are some strikeouts to be had in this Baltimore lineup. Scherzer and Paxton are a clear #1A and #1B combination tonight, and I will have shares of both, but I lean toward Scherzer as my GPP preference.