DFS Alerts

Sean Manaea has allowed at least four runs in five straight starts (RHBs 46.8 Hard% over that span)

Sean Manaea has allowed at least four runs in five straight starts. Right-handed batters have four HRs and a 46.8 Hard% against him over that span and a .358 xwOBA with a 39.3 Hard% since last season. The Rays (4.1 implied runs) line up all nine against him from that side tonight with only C.J. Cron (129 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) above $3.5K on either site. Wilson Ramos (122 wRC+, .170 ISO) has some value behind the plate, though the park may not be ideal.

Lineup Spot Value

Batting second for the Rockies against Derek Holland at Coors Field puts any right-handed bat in play, and at this salary, Noel Cuevas is an easy fit on DK/FDRFT. We don’t have much sample size here, but he has shown enough contact ability to be valuable. Batting in between Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, just putting the ball in play gives him all kinds of ways to help DFS rosters.

Jon Gray has a 29 K% and 52.1 GB% in six home starts this year

Jon Gray has generated a league average wOBA, within six points of .315 against batters from either side of the plate since last season and xwOBA even drops each of those 10 to 20 points to account for Coors. The Giants have a 4.68 implied run line that’s outside the top five on a 10 game slate. While he generally focuses on generating ground balls at home and is above 50% against batters from either side at Coors this year, his strikeout rate is also 6.1 points higher at home this year (29%). This is not an automatic attack spot and Gray may even be worth considering as a GPP play for $7.5K or less against an offense with a 17.9 K-BB% vs RHP. If not, the top half of the lineup is still probably worthy of consideration, especially Andrew McCutchen (124 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Brandon Belt (147 wRC+, .265 ISO), the former less than $4K on either site.

Rockies should feast on Derek Holland (RHBs .396 xwOBA since 2017) at Coors

Start your daily fantasy engines. The Colorado lineup is out and their board topping 5.82 Vegas run line may actually seem a bit light against Derek Holland (RHBs .389 wOBA, .396 xwOBA, 42 Hard%, 33.5 GB% since 2017). If that’s due to his 3.81 ERA over the last month, it’s backed by estimators above four and a half over that span. He has a .357 xwOBA and 9.7% Barrels/BBE overall this season. Nolan Arenado (211 wRC+, .348 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the top overall bat on the board tonight. Trevor Story (161 wRC+, .352 ISO) is easily the top SS play. Noel Cuevas (93 wRC+, .086 ISO) is the top value in the two hole for right around $3K on either site. Charlie Blackmon (136 wRC+, .199 ISO) remains a top OF bat despite the platoon disadvantage.

Fernando Romero is in a premium run prevention spot for less than $8K in KC, but against an offense that rarely strikes out

Fernando Romero has had above average strikeout rates at every stop up the ladder since 2016, including 25% through five major league starts in which he’s also generated a 54.3 GB%. He faces a Kansas City offense without a wRC+ above 86 either at home, vs RHP or over the last seven days for a cost of less than $8K, but the main concern is that the Royals also have a strikeout rate below 19% in all three instances. PlateIQ (now available with conditional formatting and player scores for premium subscribers) tells us that tonight’s confirmed lineup has just a .293 wOBA and .134 ISO vs RHP since 2017 with a more daily fantasy friendly 21 K%, but none of the first four in the order are above 18%. Romero is cheap enough that he could pay off from just run prevention alone against a poor offense, but upside may be limited.

Brandon Nimmo (244 wRC+ last seven days) continues to cost less than $4K

The Mets have an implied run line just above four (4.11) and Julio Teheran has a recent history of success against this team, including 14 shutout innings this season, but he’s allowed 13 runs in his last 17 innings with as many walks as strikeouts (nine each) and five HRs. The interesting thing is that this season, RHBs have a wOBA six points higher than LHBs with seven of his 11 HRs allowed. That doesn’t mean much because Jose Bautista (58 wRC+, .141 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is essentially the Mets’ RH power at this point and by xwOBA, LHBs (.357) are 58 points higher than RHBs since last season. Unfortunate that Michael Conforto is out of tonight’s lineup, but on base machine Brandon Nimmo (162 wRC+, .245 ISO) continues to cost less than $4K. He has a 244 wRC+ and 52 Hard% over the last week, just a bit better than Bautista’s 216 wRC+ and 55.6 Hard% over that span. Jay Bruce (110 wRC+, .207 ISO) may be another bat worth considering for less than $3.5K.

Juan Soto moves into the leadoff spot for less than $4K on either site for the team that currently has the top implied run line outside Coors tonight (5.13). Soto has compiled few plate appearances against RHP so far, but has .397 wOBA/.418 xwOBA against them. He has a 143 wRC+ and 55.6 Hard% overall in the past seven days. David Hess has started three games for the Orioles and has handled RHBs well (.287 wOBA, .317 xwOBA, but with a 36.4 Hard%). LHBs have been another story (.419 wOBA, .363 xwOBA, 3.0 K-BB%). Soto is an ideal value play. Bryce Harper (158 wRC+, .312 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top bat in the lineup at a high cost. Anthony Rendon (135 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Matt Adams (146 wRC+, .304 ISO) are at a more moderate price range than is Trea Turner (124 wRC+, .166 ISO).

Jason Vargas has averaged just over four innings per start and a bullpen in shambles behind him

The Atlanta Braves have a 4.9 implied run line that’s top five on the board and face a pitcher who (Jason Vargas), who has averaged just over four innings per start and has allowed at least four runs in four of five this year. The odd part is that he’s had at least a 10.7 SwStr% in each outing this year too, while his 85.4 mph aEV and 27.8% 95+ mph EV are both second lowest on the board. Yet, his .408 xwOBA is the highest mark today and the over-worked bullpen behind him is in shambles, just all the more reason to attack with Atlanta batters. While same-handed batters actually have a .378 wOBA against him since last season, xwOBA closes the gap quite a bit and puts batters from either within six points of .340. Freddie Freeman (147 wRC+, .238 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Ozzie Albies (172 wRC+, .269 ISO) are quality high cost bats. Kurt Suzuki (188 wRC+, .366 ISO) and Johan Camargo (147 wRC+, .242 ISO) are bargain plays for $3.5K or less on either site.

Zack Cozart is a phenomenal infield value play, leading off for just over $3K against Mike Fiers

The Angels have a 5.07 implied run line that essentially tied for the top spot outside Coors tonight. Batters from either side of the plate have both a wOBA and xwOBA within six points of .350 against Mike Fiers since last season. Zack Cozart (114 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a phenomenal infield value play in the leadoff spot for just over $3K on either site. Mike Trout (187 wRC+, .340 ISO) is the top bat on the board outside Coors tonight. Justin Upton (124 wRC+, .231 ISO) is a strong play around the $4K price point as well. However, Kevin’s morning forecast notes some rain potential and winds blowing in from center at 10-15 mph.

Lefties in SunTrust Park

The Mets are facing a pitcher that has struggled against left-handed hitters in a ballpark that favors left-handed power. Oh, and the Mets are projected to have seven lefties in their lineup tonight. I’m willing to throw out the bad BvP numbers and trust the larger sample size here. On the season, Julio Teheran has allowed a .337 xwOBA, a 42% hard contact rate, and a 16% walk rate to left-handed hitters. Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce all bat from the left side and all boast a .350+ xwOBA against righties this season.

Let's Keep it Rolling in Coors

The Rockies are the top stacking option of the slate once again. I don’t mind fading Coors Field tournaments if there are two decent pitchers on the mound, but that’s not the case tonight, at least not when it comes to the Giants’ starter. Derek Holland is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .372 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Nolan Arenado has a massive .433 xwOBA with a .317 ISO against southpaws this season.

Great Form, Great Price, and a Great Matchup

Stripling has been terrific so far this season, posting a 2.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. He is inducing ground balls and soft contact and has shown excellent control. He threw a season-high 105 pitches in his last start, so we don’t need to worry about a pitch count. He draws an exploitable matchup tonight against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has a 28% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

The Cheaper of the Two Aces

Dollar for dollar, Paxton is my favorite ace of the slate. If you are talking dollar for dollar at any price point, Ross Stripling might get the nod before Paxton. In 11 starts this season, Paxton has a 2.92 SIERA with an elite strikeout rate of 33%. He’s pitching at home in a good ballpark and comes into the game as a huge favorite. We have to like his matchup against the Rangers, whose projected lineup has a .286 xwOBA and a 22% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Everything lines up for another great outing for Paxton.

Daily Bullpen Alert: The worst pen in baseball (Kansas City) will be covering the entire game against the Twins

Washington and Seattle are two spots we’re certainly not concerned about bullpens tonight. Both pitchers have been dominating deep into games. On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Jason Vargas is barely averaging four innings per start, but the Mets bullpen has been over-used and shellacked to such a point over the past few days that he may be left out there to take it on the chin should it go that way in Atlanta tonight. This is certainly a spot players will want to target. Matt Moore is the only other pitcher on the board averaging less than five innings per start. Behind him, the Rangers have a middling 3.92 FIP, but a low 20.8 K% (second worst). Going against Paxton, it’s likely the back end of the pen will get more work than the front end should Moore meet his normal standards. The Tigers are another pen that could get in some work with Mike Fiers facing the Angels and averaging a little over 5.1 IP per start. The Detroit pen has a 4.07 FIP and the third lowest K-BB rate (20.9%). The Royals remain the worst pen in baseball by both FIP (4.87) and K-BB (8.4%). They will be backing Brad Kelller, who has been pitching out of that pen all season and has not exceeded 43 pitches.

Ross Stripling and Jose Urena are cheaper pitchers in high upside spots against the Phillies and Padres (both 26.4 K% vs RHP)

Aside from the three high priced guys, who should rightfully dominate ownership tonight, there are a number of reasonable mid-range pivots or compliments. Joe Musgrove threw seven shutout innings at the Cardinals with seven strikeouts in his first start of the season. While his DraftKings cost has risen and a matchup with the Cubs (134 wRC+, 8.4 K-BB% last seven days) is not ideal, he still costs just $5.5K on FanDuel. Ross Stripling has struck out 19 of his last 47 batters, completing six innings or better in two straight. His 31.2 K% over the last month is not supported by an 8.7 SwStr% and his numbers are padded by facing the Padres last time out, but his .242 xwOBA this season is lowest on the board and he’s in another very high upside spot against the Phillies (tied for a split high 26.4 K% vs RHP). He still costs around $7.5K on either site. Jose Urena costs less than $7K. He can be hit or miss, but has a near league average strikeout rate and six innings or more in five of his last six starts. He also has the Padres tonight (26.4 K% vs RHP). Clayton Richard (< $8K) probably deserves some consideration on the other side of that matchup as well. The Marlins have an 88 wRC+ and 8.3 HR/FB against LHP, though they do strike out a bit less (21.2%). Richard has a 22.1 K% (11.4 SwStr%) over the last month with a 54.3 GB% on the year.