DFS Alerts
A Salary Relief Option on the Bump
We generally worry about pitch counts for the Dodgers’ starters, but we could see a little more leash on Ross Stripling today. The bullpen got taxed last night after Kenta Maeda left the game early, as six bullpen arms were forced into action. Stripling has also been rock solid since his call up earlier this month, and the Phillies have one of the lowest implied team totals on the slate. This sets up as a great combination of circumstances for Stripling, and he checks in as a -200 home favorite. Fire him up as a great option if you can’t afford the aces tonight.
Under-Priced For These Skills
It’s a tricky night to call Ross Stripling a Core Play with three aces on the mound, but with several high end bats also being high priority plays, I can’t see spending up for two expensive pitchers in tournaments. On FanDuel, I would still recommend getting up to Scherzer or Paxton, but Stripling has been so good, he’s viable there, and on DK/FDRFT, he is a perfect pairing with one of the aces. While it’s still small sample size, he has been incredible with a 29.6% K rate and just 5.3% walks. Since moving into the rotation, he has gotten even better with 31 strikeouts and just two walks in his last 22 innings. Even if these skills pull back to where he was in 2017, this is a strong bargain tonight against a high strikeout Phillies team.
The Perfect Matchup
Nolan Arenado at home in Coors Field facing a lefty who allows a ton of hard contact to right-handed bats? Yes please! Derek Holland has allowed a .385 wOBA and .262 ISO on the back of 41% hard hits allowed to righties since the start of 2017. Arenado’s skills against lefties are cartoonish with a .384 ISO and .520 wOBA against lefties while striking out just 11.5%. He is worth the salary on all sites in all formats.
Cheap Pivot Option
If I’m willing to take a chance with Dan Straily, I’m willing to take a chance on Jose Urena. He’s actually been a lot better than most give him credit for this season. Urena has a 4.15 xFIP with a 19.6% strikeout rate and a very good 53.4% ground ball rate. The biggest concern with him is the amount of hard contact he allows. That said, the Padres continue to be a bottom three offense against right-handed pitching. Their projected starters all have low ISOs against righties and most of them hit the ball on the ground a lot. They also have a combined 25.7% strikeout rate against righties this season. I think Urena is an interesting pivot play and could see pretty low ownership on this slate.
Affordable Ace
The top pitcher tonight is Max Scherzer. Despite his rough outing in Miami, he is still the ace of aces. However, the salary difference between him and James Paxton is too extreme to overlook. Both guys face high strikeout opponents, and Paxton gets a favorable home ballpark on top of it. Over his last six starts, Paxton has three double digit strikeouts games, and two complete games, including a no-hitter. His only issue early on was walks, and those have gone away with just a 3.7% walk rate over the past month. By all means, play Scherzer if you can afford him, but Paxton is the affordable ace tonight.
Three Good Starts In A Row
Since moving into a starting role, Stripling is 2-0 and has only allowed three ERs in three starts (18 IP). He has 26 strikeouts in those 18 innings, and he threw 105 pitches in his last start. With Maeda getting hurt in the second inning on Tuesday, I would expect Stripling to pitch 6+ innings if he’s pitching well tonight. He has a 29.6% strikeout rate with a 10.2% swinging strike rate and a 5.8% walk rate. Meanwhile, the projected starting lineup for the Phillies have a .175 ISO with a .317 wOBA and a 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. With his ability to limit hard contact and his strikeout upside, I really like this spot for him tonight.
Start of Tuesday's MIN-KCR game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Royals have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Danny Duffy not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game doesn’t appear to have any serious in-game delay or postponement concerns.
As reported by: Rustin Dodd via Twitter
Start of Tuesday's NYM-ATL game will be delayed due to inclement weather
The start of the matchup between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves on Tuesday night will be delayed due to inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Braves have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this game aren’t realistic options for daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously won’t do much to add to their appeal, but the delay could be a potentially positive sign for hitters if the teams opt to play through any additional precipitation later in the evening. However, as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game still carries some postponement risk, but the more likely scenario appears to be an in-game delay if a pop-up storm finds its way over the ballpark.
As reported by: the Atlanta Braves via Twitter Danny Valencia scratched Tuesday; Joey Rickard replaces
Valencia has been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Washington Nationals due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Joey Rickard, who will play left field and slot directly into Valencia’s vacated seventh spot in the order, which will move Jace Peterson to third base defensively. However, the remainder of the Orioles lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Jeremy Hellickson at home this evening.
As reported by: Eduardo A. Encina via Twitter Giants have a 5.02 implied run line at Coors, but RHBs have a career .310 wOBA and 60.1 GB% against Kyle Freeland at home
The Giants have a 5.02 implied run line that’s third best on the board at Coors tonight. While the Giants have a number of hitters who hit LHP well and some more who should play up at Coors, the issue is that Kyle Freeland has performed admirably against RHBs at Coors (.310 career wOBA, 60.1 GB%, -1.1 Hard-Soft%). If we consider just this season, the ground ball rate is down to 46.3%, but the -14 Hard-Soft% and .233 wOBA are improvements. These are still small sample sizes, but perhaps enough to give players pause. Never the less, without a right-handed batters above $4.2K on either site, some exposure to this matchup is probably warranted. The top half of the lineup, including Gorkys Hernandez (105 wRC+, .115 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Buster Posey (150 wRC+, .195 ISO), Andrew McCutchen (150 wRC+, .272 ISO) and Evan Longoria (112 wRC+, .211 ISO) are the best candidates.
Other tagged players: Gorkys Hernandez, Buster Posey, Kyle Freeland, Evan Longoria
One area of concern in Tuesday night's forecast
Kevin has updated his forecast for this evening and there remains one area of concern. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can join him on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for the latest.
Left-handed hitters have a .405 wOBA, 0.0 K-BB% and 21.7 GB% against Jeff Samardzija this year
As they generally do at home, the Rockies have the top run line on the board (5.97) with only one other team within a half run. Tonight they face Jeff Samardzija, who has held RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since last season, but LHBs have a .334 wOBA and .348 xwOBA. While this year alone, RHBs are still below .300, LHBs have a .405 wOBA with a 0.0 K-BB% and 21.7 GB%. Three of the top four in the lineup are LHBs tonight. Charlie Blackmon (139 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) should rake. Carlos Gonzalez (119 wRC+, .215 ISO) and Gerardo Parra (91 wRC+, .138 ISO) cost below $4K on either site, the former with a 192 wRC+ and 63.6 Hard% over the last week. Nolan Arenado (112 wRC+, .238 ISO) still plays here, but at a cost equal to Blackmon’s. Chris Iannetta (112 wRC+, .240 ISO) costs less than $3.5K, but is batting eighth and the only remaining bat in the lineup above a 61 wRC+ or .300 xwOBA against RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Gerardo Parra, Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Chris Iannetta Braves have one of the highest run lines (4.78) outside Coors against Steven Matz and a tired Mets bullpen
The Atlanta Braves are near the top of the board outside Coors with a 4.78 implied run line against Steven Matz and a tired Mets bullpen after last night’s double-header. RHBs have a .357 wOBA against Matz since last season, while he’s averaged less than five innings per start this year. While Ozzie Albies (174 wRC+, .276 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may be the top bat in the lineup here, Johan Camargo (152 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Tyler Flowers (177 wRC+, .197 ISO) come at a much lower price. Freddie Freeman (149 wRC+, .243 ISO) hits same-handed pitching better than well and the Mets have just one lefty (Blevins) in the bullpen.
Other tagged players: Johan Camargo, Tyler Flowers, Freddie Freeman, Steven Matz All Mets bats below $4K against Anibal Sanchez and tired Atlanta bullpen
The Mets have just a 4.22 implied run line in Atlanta tonight and the question to ask is…why? Anibal Sanchez makes his first start back from the DL (hamstring). Batters from either side have a hard hit rate above 33% with a ground ball rate below 40% against him since last season and these two teams played a double-header on Monday that didn’t end until after 1am. Bullpens were exhausted. Brandon Nimmo (158 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Michael Conforto (148 wRC+, .229 ISO) lead a lineup without a batter above $4K on either site. They are joined by Devin Mesoraco (108 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Jose Bautista (60 wRC+, .141 ISO) with all four at or above a 150 wRC+ and 38+ Hard% over the last week. If players are looking at higher priced pitching tonight, this is a lineup with upside that gets you there.
Other tagged players: Mike Condon, Jose Bautista, Devin Mesoraco, Anibal Sanchez RHBs have a 424 wOBA, 0.0 K-BB% and equal 37.5% GB and hard hit rates against C.C. Sabathia last three starts
The Houston Astros have a 4.66 implied run line in Yankee Stadium against C.C. Sabathia, who has the following line over his last three starts: (13.1 IP – 19 H – 13 ER – 4 HR – 7 BB – 11 K – 67 BF). RHBs have a .424 wOBA, 0.0 K-BB% and equal 37.5% GB and hard hit rates over that three game span. He’ll face eight of them tonight and a Houston stack is now even more affordable with the absence of Carlos Correa from the lineup. Only George Springer (178 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jose Altuve (137 wRC+, .146 ISO) are above $4K on either site. Alex Bregman (149 wRC+, .231 ISO) is the value play in the two spot. Max Stassi (231 wRC+, .300 ISO) might be interesting batting eighth. While his xwOBA against southpaws is 49 points below his .502 actual, that .453 mark is still 100 points higher than Evan Gattis (96 wRC+, .205) and a point behind J.D. Davis (129 wRC+, .357 ISO) for tops in the lineup. In other words, the line of lefty-mashers in this lineup goes on and on.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Jose Altuve, CC Sabathia, Max Stassi, J.D. Davis, Evan Gattis