DFS Alerts
Vince Velasquez (28.4 K%, .287 xwOBA) is the top pitcher on a four game night slate with some weather issues
The holiday finishes off with a difficult four game slate with two of the games (in Atlanta and Colorado) holding some degree of PPD risk via the early forecast. The top pitching option is also a bit risky, but Vince Velasquez has a 28.4 K% and his .287 xwOBA is behind only Verlander and deGrom for the entire day. He’s allowed nine HRs over his last seven starts, but his non-FIP estimators are all below four and he gets a park upgrade in LA (NL) against an offense that has been just average against RHP this season (102 wRC+, 21.7 K%). If the second game of the double-header plays in Atlanta, Brandon McCarthy has allowed just two runs over his last 11.2 innings (13 Ks). He’s thrown 48 cutters and 43 curveballs over that span, moving away from a sinker that has a .379 xwOBA and just a 10.6% whiff rate, according to Statcast. While the cutter has a .361 xwOBA, the whiff rate more than doubles (22.1%) and the curve has an xwOBA below .200. He’ll face a predominantly left-handed Mets lineup that has not been confirmed yet (the first game is still being played), but it’s been right-handed batters (.390 wOBA) that have given him more trouble this season (LHBs .328 wOBA).
Other tagged players: Brandon McCarthy
Daily Bullpen Alert (4pm slate): Both pitchers in San Diego average less than five innings per start
Considering pitchers on the late afternoon slate, Marco Gonzales and Chris Archer have consistently been going six or more innings over the last month. Trevor Cahill could pitch deep into his game as well, but there’s potential for bullpens to see a lot of work in all seven other instances due to high Vegas run lines, average pitcher workloads or both. The White Sox have been a surprisingly competent bunch (3.77 FIP, 23.5 K%). Cleveland has a 4.83 FIP that’s second worst in baseball should Adam Plutko get in trouble. The Cincinnati (4.00 FIP, 22.3 K%) and Arizona (3.59 FIP 22.5 K%) are both middle of the board or slightly better. Run lines in San Diego are both below four, but neither pitcher has averaged even five innings per start this year. The Miami bullpen (4.53 FIP, 27 HRs) has been one of the worst pens in baseball, San DIego (3.39 FIP, 24.5 K%) one of the best. The Texas bullpen has just a 20.9 K% behind Fister, but a 3.95 FIP playing half their games in a hitter’s haven. They get a significant park upgrade in Seattle this afternoon.
Brad Miller (facial contusion) scratched Monday; Christian Arroyo replaces
Miller has been scratched from the Tampa Bay Rays original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Monday’s matchup with the Oakland Athletics due to a facial contusion he sustained during batting practice. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Christian Arroyo, who will handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which will bump Mallex Smith all the way up to the leadoff spot and shift C.J. Cron to first base defensively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Rays order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Trevor Cahill on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Marc Topkin via Twitter
Seattle Mariners attack Doug Fister with a predominantly right-handed lineup (six of first eight)
Right-handed batters have a .410 wOBA against Doug Fister this season, but it seems a bit of a fluke. Not that his 10.1 K% or 16.0 Hard-Soft% against them is anything special and his 48.1 GB% is actually worse than against LHBs this year (49.4%), but the .382 BABIP by same-handed batters is going to regress. He’s traditionally been stronger against RHBs (.313 wOBA, 28.4 Hard%, 51.4 GB% since last season) with LHBs generating success against him (.348 wOBA, .345 xwOBA, 42.4 Hard%), but the Mariners, implied for 4.5 runs in a negative run environment, don’t offer much from that side of the plate. Just Denard Span (114 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Kyle Seager (103 wRC+, .217 ISO) among the first eight in the order. There are better overall plays and values on today’s board.
Other tagged players: Doug Fister, Kyle Seager Christian Villanueva has a 261 wRC+, .454 xwOBA and .567 ISO against LHP
Caleb Smith’s 31.7 K% is suspect, especially with just a 10.8 SwStr% over the last month. He may be able to sustain it in San Diego today (18.3 K-BB% vs LHP), but it’s not an offense without dangerous bats against southpaws (16.3 HR/FB). Christian Villanueva has destroyed LHP in 64 PAs (261 wRC+, .454 xwOBA, .567 ISO, 42.9 Hard%). Fellow lefty masher Hunter Renfroe (175 wRC+, .393 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has returned to the lineup. Jose Pirela (128 wRC+, .199 ISO) costs less than $3K on either site. Smith has handled RHBs well in his career (.286 wOBA), but Statcast increases that mark by 40 points (.326 xwOBA), giving him virtually no platoon split.
Other tagged players: Hunter Renfroe, Caleb Smith, Jose Pirela Jean Segura scratched Monday; Andrew Romine replaces
Segura has been scratched from the Seattle Mariners original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Monday’s matchup with the Texas Rangers due to concussion-like symptoms. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Andrew Romine, who will play shortstop and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which will bump Guillermo Heredia all the way up to the leadoff spot, Mike Zunino up to seventh, and Gordon Beckham up to eighth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Mariners order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Doug Fister at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter Brian Anderson has a career 49.1 Hard% and .413 xwOBA against LHP
Eric Lauer completed six innings for just the second time this season last time out (6 IP – 6 H – 1 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 7 K – 25 BF in Washington). The numbers are all still below average, but the miniscule price tag nearly puts him into consideration against the Marlins, who, despite what happened with Scherzer on Friday night, are still one of the worst run producing offenses in the majors. They have been slightly competent against LHP however (11.3 K-BB%). Two inexpensive bats in particular could be of use here against a pitcher who has allowed a .411 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) and 43.8 Hard% (31.4 GB%) against right-handed batters so far. Neither offers much power, but Brian Anderson (117 wRC+) has a .413 xwOBA and 49.1 Hard% against southpaws in his career. Miguel Rojas leads off (110 wRC+, .161 ISO vs LHP last calendar year). Starlin Castro (115 wRC+, .109 ISO) may be an option, but probably is not a top second base play on this board.
Other tagged players: Miguel Rojas, Starlin Castro, Eric Lauer The Diamondbacks offer salary relief (if needed) against Homer Bailey
Five runs on the nose is the second highest Vegas run line on the late afternoon slate for the Arizona Diamondbacks and it has very little to do with their own offensive prowess and everything to do with Homer Bailey (12.9 K%, 5.33 SIERA, .413 xwOBA). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .369 and .396 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Only Jake Lamb (118 wRC+, .234 ISO) is above a 110 wRC+ or .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year, but the top four should all offer value in this spot if that’s what is needed. Jarrod Dyson (93 wRC+) is the speedster leading off at a low price. Paul Goldschmidt (102 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Daniel Descalso (108 wRC+, .180 ISO) are at least competent bats against RHP. John Ryan Murphy (38 wRC+, .162 ISO) has not been, but has a 155 wRC+ and 66.7 Hard% in his 10 PAs over the last week and costs just $2.1K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Jarrod Dyson, Daniel Descalso, John Ryan Murphy, Homer Bailey Matt Koch has allowed a major league worst 15.6% Barrels/BBE (70 BBE min.)
The Cincinnati Reds have a 4.5 implied run line that’s third best on a 10 team slate, which confirms that Vegas believes what most daily fantasy players do about Matt Koch’s 3.77 ERA. It’s a complete fluke, considering the type of contact generated against him (91.3 mph aEV, 15.6% Barrels/BBE, .418 xwOBA). All this despite Arizona possibly playing as a slight pitcher’s park since the implementation of the humidor this season. Same-handed batters have a .399 wOBA, .449 xwOBA against him. While LHBs have just a .299 wOBA, Statcast is not buying it (.400 xwOBA). Batters from either side of the plate have a hard hit rate above 40% against him via Fangraphs. Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .436 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Scooter Gennett (147 wRC+, .265 ISO) project as the strongest bats in the lineup, but any of the first six are great overall and/or high value plays.
Other tagged players: Scooter Gennett, Matt Koch Batters from either side have a .365 or better wOBA and xwOBA against Dylan Covey in 83 major league innings
The Cleveland Indians have a 5.52 implied run line, tops on the late afternoon slate by a full half run against Dylan Covey, who’s coming off the best start of his career against the Orioles (7 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 8 K). He’s struck out more than five only one other time in his career and now has a 3.8 K-BB% in 83 major league innings. While he generates ground balls on contact at a 50% rate for his career, batters from either side at are a .365 or higher wOBA and xwOBA against him in those 83 IP. The bottom three bats all have a wRC+ below 75 against RHP over the last calendar year, but the first six are all at 100 or above, the top five above a .190 ISO as well. Jose Ramirez (164 wRC+, .302 ISO) is the top overall bat. He comes at a very high cost, but that should not be an issue with little in the way of high priced pitching on this particular slate.
Other tagged players: Dylan Covey Adam Plutko has allowed just three runs in 13.1 IP, but with six extra-base hits in his first start, four walks in his second
The White Sox do not offer an imposing lineup, including three guys with limited or no major league experience beyond the first four in the lineup (28 year-old Matt Skole makes his major league debut batting fifth). They have just a 3.98 implied run line against Adam Plutko, but some competent bats in the top half of the lineup. Plutko has allowed just three runs in 13.1 innings, but six extra-base hits in his first start and four walks in his second without much in his minor league numbers to suggest a breakout at age 26. In his two starts, 22 left-handed batters have a .415 wOBA (.443 xwOBA) with a 52.9 Hard%. He hasn’t had a ground ball rate above 35% since his days in the low minors in 2014. A top four Chicago stack of Yoan Moncada (135 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Yolmer Sanchez (115 wRC+, .175 ISO), Jose Abreu (139 wRC+, .242 ISO) and Daniel Palka (112 wRC+, .288 ISO) could pay dividends.
Other tagged players: Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka, Adam Plutko If not using Archer (LHBs 42.2 Hard% since 2017), Matts Olson (157 wRC+ vs RHP) and Joyce (134 wRC+) offer value
While Chris Archer has been pitching well, deep into games (6 or more innings with two or fewer runs in four of his last five), another factor potentially in his favor is that five of nine Oakland bats (Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty, Dustin Fowler, Jonathan Lucroy) come into this game with a wRC+ below 15 over the last seven days. It’s not that they’re not making decent contact (all have a hard hit rate above 35%), but all five have struck out in at least a quarter of plate appearances over that span. If not playing Archer though, there are some red flags in his recent walk and hard contact rates as well. Matt Olson (157 wRC+, .337 ISO) and Matt Joyce (134 wRC+, .251 ISO) are tops in the lineup for wRC+ and ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year against a pitcher who has struggled with platoon splits a bit since last season (LHBs .337 wOBA, 42.2 Hard%). Each costs less than $4K on either site, the latter at $3K or below.
Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Chris Archer Several interesting arms all below $10K on the late afternoon slate
While the top pitchers are already off the board in earlier starts, there are some interesting mid-range arms (who are actually the higher priced arms) on the late afternoon five games slate. Marco Gonzales isn’t missing a lot of bats (17.2 K%, 6.8 SwStr% last 30 days), but has finished just one out short of six innings or better in six straight starts and hosts a Texas offense with a 26.4 K% vs LHP in Seattle at a cost below $7.5K on either site. Trevor Cahill has a 14.0 SwStr% that tops the slate (13% over the last month). He combines that with a 60.4 GB% to mitigate the damage done by a 90.2 mph aEV. He costs around or below $8K against a tough Tampa Bay offense, but it’s not the same lineup and while they have great success against fastball pitchers, he throws sinkers and other fastballs only 40% of the time. Caleb Smith probably can not continue to support a strikeout rate above 30% with just a 10.8 SwStr% over the last 30 days, but could continue it for at least one more spot in San Diego (18.3 K-BB% vs LHP). Chris Archer has completed six innings in five straight, allowing more than two runs just once in that span, but he’s walked 10 of his last 79 batters and has had a hard hit rate below 45% just once in May, while the cost is continuing to rise. He’s in a dangerous matchup against a powerful Oakland lineup, but in a pitcher’s park with some upside (23.2 K% vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Marco Gonzales, Caleb Smith, Chris Archer Afternoon Bats Here
I started with David Peralta as the Core Play for Arizona, but he is out of the lineup, and I still want to make sure to get exposure to this D’Backs team against Homer Bailey, who has no strikeout ability and has allowed more earned runs than strikeouts this season. Jake Lamb hits the ball extremely hard against righties, and his one issue, the strikeouts, is not likely to be a problem against Bailey.
Elite Strikeout Upside at a Discounted Price Point
Caleb Smith has a much higher ceiling than most pitchers in his price range. He currently has a 31% strikeout rate on the season. While that’s accompanied by a 12% walk rate, a 31% ground ball rate, and a 37% hard contact rate, he should at least be on our radar in tournaments. He may end up being the chalk value for pitching, but it’s hard to overlook a matchup against the Padres in Petco. Their projected lineup has a 24% strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
