DFS Alerts
Quality Start
Porcello had a tough start his last time out against the Tampa Bay Rays turning in a -2.4 DK pt performance, lasting just 3.2 IP and allowing 6 runs (4 ER). Prior to that start, Porcello had quietly been turning in a real solid year – he’s the owner of a 3.44 SIERA, 23.2 K%, and is limiting hard contact (22.7 Soft%, 27.8 Hard%). Porcello doesn’t pop as a strong pt/$ option at a relatively high priced tag but is in a favorable spot to turn in a quality start with a handful of strikeouts against an average Blue Jays offense (24.8 K%; 96 wRC+ vs RHP). Porcello gets the added boost of a pitcher’s ump in Vic Carapazza behind the plate.
High Upside
The Diamondbacks’ numbers against right-handed pitching this year are staggering. They own the third-highest strikeout rate in the league (26 K%) and have the worst wRC+ (66) versus RHP. The Arizona offense is likely better than those early season numbers indicate, and the return of Jake Lamb to the lineup certainly helps, but there sill remain transparent holes in their lineup, especially with the continued absence of AJ Pollock. Luis Castillo has been largely average this year (4.09 SIERA, 22.1 K%) but is a talented young righty with a strong Big League year in the books (3.63 SIERA, 27.3 K%). On a night with mostly mediocre pitching options up top, Castillo pops as one of the higher upside GPP options.
A Late Night Value
It seems strange to put someone like Brad Miller as a Core Play, but first base is strangely weak tonight, and I see reason to save salary for other positions. Oakland’s Daniel Gossett has no strikeout ability and no ability to control batted balls to left-handed batters. Assuming Miller is near the top of the lineup, his mix of patience and hard hits make him a nice value with some upside in this matchup at this salary on FanDuel. So far this season he has a 44% hard hit rate against righties while Gossett is striking out just 12.5% of left-handed batters with a .408 wOBA against.
Too Much Value To Pass Up
The Giants are less exciting overall than the Rockies, as Kyle Freeland has been a solid pitcher, but Andrew McCutchen is simply underpriced for his skills against lefties combined with the Coors Field factor. Freeland’s game is about inducing soft contact and ground balls, and at Coors Field, what we want is the batters who can get the ball in the air to take advantage of the altitude and the oversized outfield. Since the start of 2017 against lefties, McCutchen has a 44% hard hit rate, 45% fly balls, low strikeouts, high walks, a .313 ISO and .417 wOBA. At this salary, he will be the first player locked in my cash game lineups and is near the top of my tournament wish list.
The Top Bat By a Mile (High)
This is a tough slate for hitters, and there is just no reason to overthink the obvious Coors Field plays. Jeff Samardzija has been just a shell of his former self, unable to find his control this season with a terrible 25:23 K:BB ratio leading to a 6.23 ERA. Even if he suddenly bounces back, the Rockies lefties would be firmly in play here. Without the need to pay top dollar for pitching, you should be able to afford an elite bat or two, and Blackmon is the clear choice tonight.
Skills, Matchup and Salary All Line Up
The top skills of the night belong to Charlie Morton, but just a slight tick behind him is Kenta Maeda, in a much easier matchup at a lower salary. IN 2017, Maeda had an elite 32% strikeout rate to right-handed batters, but struggled with lefties. This season, he has been able to bring those strikeouts to lefties up to 30% as well, leaving him with an overall K rate of 30.8% to go with a 3.38 ERA and 3.12 SIERA. He is in top form right now with 20 strikeouts on just four hits and no runs allowed in his last two starts. At home against a high strikeout Phillies team, there is upside as high as anyone, and more safety than what Morton gets in his matchup against the Yankees.
A Solid Pitching Value
I’ll start by saying it isn’t the best night for pitching, with the highest priced option being Charlie Morton pitching on the road in Yankee Stadium and the likes of Kenta Maeda and Blake Snell priced through the roof. That said, Dan Straily may be a good source of value that you can pair with one of the top-tier options on two-pitcher sites. Straily had a rough start to his 2018 campaign, but appears to be returning to his 2017 form after three consecutive solid starts. In his last three outings Straily has only allowed 10 hits in 18 innings pitched, while accumulating 16K’s on an average of 100 pitches per outing. Tonight he gets to take on the Padres at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres have the highest team K% on the slate at 26.7%, as well as the third lowest ISO and wOBA against RHP, which should increase Strailey’s floor as well. While many may gravitate to Tyson Ross on the other side of this game, at only 6.3K on DK I’ll take the savings on Straily in what should be a low-scoring affair in San Diego.
Start of Monday's NYM-ATL game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves on Monday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Braves have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this game aren’t realistic options for any daily fantasy formats, the late start won’t do much to add to their appeal, but the delay is obviously a potentially positive sign for hitters if the teams opt to play through any additional precipitation later in the evening. However, as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game still carries a decent amount of postponement risk, making it a strong fade candidate if unwilling to stomach the possibility of players from this contest not accruing fantasy points this evening.
As reported by: Grant McAuley via Twitter
Start of Monday's SFG-COL game will be delayed due to inclement weather
The start of the matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies on Monday night will be delayed due to inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Rockies have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this game aren’t realistic options for any daily fantasy formats, the late start won’t do much to add to their appeal, but the delay is obviously a potentially positive sign for hitters if the teams opt to play through any additional precipitation later in the evening. However, as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game still carries some postponement risk, even though he believes the teams should be able to play through following the initial stoppage.
As reported by: Jake Shapiro via Twitter Two games still at risk in Monday evening's forecast
Kevin has updated his morning forecast and both the Mets Braves and to a lesser degree Giants Rockies are in line for some sketchy weather. Neither game is entirely without PPD risk with Atlanta particularly risky. Players can read the entire updated report on the Weather page.
Every batter in the Dodger lineup is above a 100 wRC+ against RHP last calendar year, only two below a .200 ISO
Vince Velasquez may be the top pitcher on a four game board tonight, but he’s far from a lock and the Dodger lineup (4.19 implied runs) has a lot of talent. All eight hitters are above a 100 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year and only Justin Turner (.159) and Chase Utley (.170) are below a .200 ISO. Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger and Yasiel Puig all exceed a 130 wRC+ and .260 ISO.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Justin Turner, Chase Utley, Vince Velasquez Phillies have a board low 3.81 implied run line, but Brock Stewart hasn't faced more than 18 batters in over a month
The Phillies are the low team on the board at 3.81 implied runs, though Brock Stewart is difficult to roster because he hasn’t faced more than 18 batters in any outing (majors or minors) since April 18th. The Phillies do have some dangerous bats in the lineup, but they’ll likely be facing fresh arms throughout. Rhys Hoskins has a 138 wRC+ and the top ISO (.272) in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year, but has been in a prolonged slumber with just a 52 wRC+ and 30.9 K% overall for the month of May. Odubel Herrera (139 wRC+, .197 ISO) and Carlos Santana (120 wRC+, .224 ISO) pose some threat.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Brock Stewart, Rhys Hoskins Jakob Junis has a career 14.7 HR/FB in a power suppressing home park
Both the Twins and Royals have a Vegas run line hovering around four and a half in Kansas City tonight. Jakob Junis does have a slider that can make hitters look silly on occasion and should, theoretically have some success in a big park like Kansas City, but still has a career 14.7 HR/FB at home. His 11.0% Barrels/BBE this season is worst on the board tonight and the Twins have some pop against RHP. Each of the first five hitters in the order have an ISO above .200 against RHP over the last calendar year. The three lefties (Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison) all have a wRC+ of 115 or better with ISOs above .230. Lance Lynn has thrown two quality starts in his last four, but also two stinkers in between. He has a 14.6 BB% on the season and just a 7.4 SwStr% over the last month. Even RHBs have a .371 wOBA and 42.1 Hard% against him this season. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .360 since last season. Mike Moustakas (130 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top overall play in this lineup. Jon Jay (94 wRC+) offers value at a price tag around $3K on either site. Salvador Perez (91 wRC+, .202 ISO) can do some damage against same-handed pitching.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison, Jakob Junis, Lance Lynn, Mike Moustakas, Jon Jay Giants (5.48) and Rockies (6.02) only teams on a four game night slate above 4.6 implied runs
As of this morning, there was some weather-related risk in Colorado, but it’s going to be extremely tough for late slate players to get away from this game. The Giants (5.48) and Rockies (6.02) are the only two teams above a 4.6 implied run line on this four-game board. The Giants throw a predominantly right-handed lineup at a pitcher (Chad Bettis) who struggles more with same-handed bats (.336 wOBA since last season). None the less, Brandon Belt (156 wRC+, .424 xwOBA, .283 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is still a great overall option in this park on a night where his high price tag shouldn’t matter much. Gorkys Hernandez (103 wRC+, .104 ISO) and Andrew McCutchen (127 wRC+, .176 ISO) are both great overall and top value plays at the top of the order for $4K or less. Theoretically, the Rockies should smash southpaw Andrew Suarez (RHBs .428 wOBA, .413 xwOBA, 49.3 Hard%). Nolan Arenado (213 wRC+, .450 xwOBA, .350 ISO), Trevor Story (155 wRC+, .340 ISO) and Chris Iannetta (102 wRC+, .184 ISO) are all premium plays, while Charlie Blackmon (141 wRC+, .207 ISO) hits same-handed pitching awfully well.
Other tagged players: Gorkys Hernandez, Andrew McCutchen, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta, Charlie Blackmon, Chad Bettis, Andrew Suarez Daily Bullpen Alert (late games): Mets to throw the entire pen at Atlanta
While P.J. Conlin may start, he threw just 3.2 innings in his first major league start and the 24 year-old lefty has a below 20 K% at both AA and AAA. Seth Lugo is now pitching in the first game, which is tied at two. If it does not go extra-innings, Robert Gsellman (22.1 K%, 3.66 SIERA) and Paul Sewald (25.4 K%, 3.17 SIERA) should both be available for multi-inning stints, weather permitting in the nightcap. The bullpens in Colorado are both middling (Rockies 4.08 FIP, Giants 3.90 FIP), though it shouldn’t much matter for games at Coors. The Twins have a bottom four 4.37 FIP, but an acceptable 23.5 K%. They face the Royals, who have the worst bullpen in the majors (5.00 FIP, 17.2 K%), which may be one reason why Jakob Junis is the only pitcher on the slate averaging more than six innings per start. Vince Velasquez has completed six innings in half of his 10 starts, but is averaging just over five innings per start on the season. Drew Hutchison is the only reliever averaging much more than an inning per appearance out of the Philly pen, but he’s allowed a HR in each of his last three appearances that have lasted more than a batter. The pen overall has a 3.86 FIP that’s top half of the league. Brock Stewart has not faced more than 18 batters in an outing at any level since the middle of April. The Dodger pen has a 4.11 FIP and 24.2 K%, but just a 3.11 FIP and 25.8 K% over the last 14 days.