DFS Alerts
The Houston Astros have the highest implied run line on the slate (4.96), nearly doubling their opponent (2.54)
The Houston Astros (4.96) nearly double the implied run line of their opponents (2.54) this afternoon. It’s the best and worst mark on the board by a decent margin. Justin Verlander (32.8 K%, 13.4 SwStr%, 2.88 SIERA, .240 xwOBA) is easily the top pitcher on the board even if his .205 BABIP, 90.5 LOB% and 4.6 HR/FB all demand significant regression. He also costs in excess of $3K more than any other pitcher on either site. While mid-week early afternoon games are among the most unpredictable, interest in the San Francisco offense should be minimal, especially with Brandon Belt (157 wRC+, .284 ISO, 47.5 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year) costing $4.3K on either site. Jeff Samardzija completed six innings for the first time this year and even got two outs in the seventh, but both walked and struck out three batters each for the third time in six starts. He hasn’t exceeded five strikeouts in any one yet. His 10.4% Barrels/BBE is second highest this afternoon (Junis 11.3%). It’s been left-handed batters that continue to plague him (.421 wOBA this season, .335 since 2017), while he’s been able to handle same-handed batter (.267 wOBA this season, .288 since 2017), which makes a fade of high priced Houston RHBs more conceivable if paying up for their pitcher. However, each of the first eight bats in the lineup exceed a 100 wRC+ and .170 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Alex Bregman (123 wRC+, .182 ISO) costs around $3.5K on either site, batting second. Marwin Gonzalez (132 wRC+, .185 ISO) costs $3.1K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Jeff Samardzija, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman
All of Jakob Junis's non-slider pitches exceed a .350 wOBA this season
The Cardinals have an implied run line a full run ahead of the Royals in St Louis this afternoon (4.51 vs 3.49). The Royals have a suspect lineup to begin with and lose the DH against Michael Wacha, who has a 24.8 K% (11.3 SwStr%) over the last month. Wacha has gone at least six innings in four of his last six starts and has not allowed more than two runs in any of them. While a 7.7 HR/FB over-states his ERA, St Louis is a power suppressing park and this confirmed lineup for the Royals has just a .141 ISO against RHP since last season via PlateIQ. Wacha is an interesting play for $8.2K on FanDuel, but costs $1.1K more on DraftKings. Though Jon Jay may be too cheap as a leadoff hitter with a 96 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year, Mike Moustakas (130 wRC+, .279) is the only batter in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ or .195 ISO over that same span. RHBs are better against Wacha by wOBA since last season (.326 – .291), though xwOBA reverses that (.311 – .330). Jake Junis has a nasty slider that he’s ridden to a league average strikeout rate, but every other pitch he’s thrown more than 50 times this season has exceeded a .350 wOBA and .360 xwOBA. He’s allowed three or more homers twice this season, both at home, in a similarly power suppressing park. Batters from either side exceed a .330 xwOBA and 35 Hard% against him in his career. The top half of the St Louis lineup looks strong here: Tommy Pham (147 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Matt Carpenter (123 wRC+, .214 ISO), Marcell Ozuna (128 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Jose Martinez (122 wRC+, .159 ISO).
Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Jakob Junis, Michael Wacha, Mike Moustakas, Jon Jay Zack Godley has a reduced strikeout rate (21.7%) and ground ball rate (51.7%) this season
Both Zack Godley and Brent Suter have regressed in 2018 and face off in an afternoon affair in Milwaukee with both teams between four and four and a half implied runs. The soft-tossing Suter has maintained strong contact management skills (83.7 mph aEV is best for the entire day), but both his strikeout (17.3%) and swinging strike (7.4%) rates are down a point and a half this season. While RHBs have a .340 wOBA against him since last season, it’s tough to say he has absolutely no chance against this mish-mash lineup. Paul Goldschmidt (179 wRC+, .348 ISO, 47.1 Hard% vs LHP last calendar year) and Nick Ahmed (163 wRC+, .297 ISO) have dominated southpaws, though the latter has an xwOBA (,290) that’s 121 points lower than his actual (.411) against them. Zack Godley is down three points by SwStr (10.3%) and nearly five by K rate (21.7%) with both of those numbers below average over the last month (19.1%, 8.8%). His 51.7 GB% is still formidable, but down several points as well. The Brewers missed several opportunities against Matt Koch last night and Godley is clearly a superior pitcher, but run out a bit of a stars and scrubs lineup this afternoon. Christian Yelich (133 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jesus Aguilar (117 wRC+, .239 ISO), Travis Shaw (138 wRC+, .271 ISO), and Domingo Santana (126 wRC+, .218 ISO) are the only batters above a 90 wRC+ or a .125 ISO against righties over the last calendar year. Godley has no platoon split, holding batters from either side just below a .310 xwOBA, though he’s generated grounders at a 60.9% rate against lefties since last season (12.7 points higher than righties). He costs $8.5K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Brent Suter, Nick Ahmed, Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar, Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw Runs On Both Sides
As much as I love the Pirates, don’t overlook the other side of this game with Reds lefties against Chad Kuhl. Kuhl has no ability to limit hard hits or fly balls to left-handed batters. His only plus skill is 23% strikeouts to lefties and the elite contact ability of Votto can offset that. He should see runners on base ahead of him and has power and on base upside at a fair salary. I see him as the top cash game option at first base and a strong tournament play as well.
Kyle Gibson has the second best strikeout rate (25.6%) on the afternoon slate
The Twins have an implied run line (4.77) a full run above their opponents (Tigers 3.73) in one of five games on the early slate today (four on FanDuel). Kyle Gibson has not been consistent (8 BBs last two starts), but has shown some upside this season (25.6 K% second best on the afternoon) and should be a popular pivot off of Justin Verlander for $4-5K less ($7.7K on either site). This afternoon’s confirmed Detroit lineup has just a .287 wOBA and .137 ISO with a 23.1 K% vs RHP since 2017 according to PlateIQ. Batters from either side have a wOBA within two points of .340 against Gibson since last season, while RHBs are favored by over 40 points by xwOBA, though with an eight point higher GB rate. Nick Castellanos has the top wRC+ (111) and ISO (.200) in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year. Michael Fulmer had a bounce back start in Seattle and now has a 40+ O-Swing% in three straight starts. He has a 28 K%, 14 SwStr% over the last month and could be an under the radar play this afternoon, especially for just $6.1K on DraftKings. That said, LHBs have a .330 xwOBA and 35.1 Hard% against him since last season. Eddie Rosario (145 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Eduardo Escobar (118 wRC+, .239 ISO), Logan Morrison (125 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Max Kepler (101 wRC+, .195 ISO) are dangerous bats.
Other tagged players: Michael Fulmer, Logan Morrison, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Max Kepler, Nick Castellanos Another Top Offense
The Yankees are a standout offense tonight against the low strikeouts of Doug Fister. You’ll want Yankees exposure in cash games, and it’s close between the outfielders Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks. With Gardner’s leadoff spot and on base ability, it’s fine to side with him in cash, but Aaron Hicks looks like the higher upside hitter right now with a strong mix of power and speed. He should have plenty of RBI opportunities tonight.
Loading Up Against The Worst Pitcher
Homer Bailey is one of the worst pitchers in the league right now with just a 13.1% strikeout rate, a 6.11 ERA and 5.33 SIERA. Since last season he has struck out just 13.2% of left-handed batters. All of Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell and Corey Dickerson are prime plays in all formats tonight. I side slightly with Polanco as he is showing the most power of the group with a .242 ISO against righties so far this season. On DK/FRDFT, I find myself needing the extra few bucks to go down from Polanco to Corey Dickerson, feel free to interchange them as needed.
A Potential Shootout Game
I think we will see some runs in Chicago tonight, as we have two bad pitchers taking the mound. While we generally don’t love stacking the White Sox, they draw a fine matchup against Alex Cobb, who has a meager 11% strikeout rate on the year and is allowing a ton of hard contact. Some of his poor results are a result of bad BABIP luck, but any pitcher is going to be walking a tight rope with low strikeouts and high hard contact. Jose Abreu is a great play given his recent surge at the plate, while I will happily stack up the top of the White Sox order in GPP formats tonight.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka
Matching Up Well Against an Extreme Splits Pitcher
The massive splits differential for Chad Kuhl has continued in 2018, as he has allowed a .396 wOBA and 39% hard contact rate to left-handed batters this season. He also allows a ton of fly balls to lefties, so power hitting LHBs are absolutely in play against him. This is actually a very difficult matchup for him against a lefty-heavy Reds lineup. Joey Votto is an elite target tonight and is one of my favorite overall hitters on the board, while the likes of Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler are very strong secondary options. Jesse Winker checks in as a fine value play if he draws the leadoff spot, as well.
Other tagged players: Jesse Winker, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler A Great Tournament Stack after a Tuesday Letdown
I love targeting teams that might go under-owned as a result of recency bias, and that might be exactly what we get with the Orioles after they were shut down by James Shields and company last night. All the hitters in the top five of the Baltimore order will get strong consideration for me and it all comes down to how much salary you have available. If you have extra salary, Manny Machado is one of the strongest options on the board. If a mid-range play suits you better, don’t sleep on the likes of Adam Jones and Trey Mancini. The Orioles draw a great matchup here against Dylan Covey, who has been nothing short of awful in his brief major league career. He took his lumps as a Rule Five pick a year ago, and he has yet to win a game at the MLB level. His numbers are awful across the board. Feel free to load up on some Orioles tonight.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini He's Sort Of Back
Price had a rough patch before hitting the DL, but he certainly looked healthy in his last start, and I am hopeful that he just needed that break to clear up his hand issue that could have been causing his problems. I still don’t see a return to his previous strikeout ability, as he’s relying more on sinkers and cutters this season and has just a 21.6% strikeout rate. But as long as his control is back, he gets a bit of a strikeout boost from the matchup, and gets a fairly easy opponent in a pitchers park. If the salary is no issue, I slightly prefer Kenta Maeda, but I think you should be fine with Price tonight as your SP2.
The Must Play Ace
It’s a pretty small group of pitching options tonight, and deGrom is heads and shoulders above the crowd. If there was any lingering injury concerns, he put those to rest in his last start when he had his best velocity of the season and racked up 13 strikeouts in seven innings. On the year he has the 4th highest strikeout rate of all major league starters at 34.3% along with just 7% walks and a 29.9% soft contact rate that is the highest of any pitcher in the league. He gets a Miami team that is dead last in the league in runs scored. No reason to overthink this one.
Your High Upside SP #2 Choice in Tournaments
It has just been a season full of bad luck for Chris Archer, and that could certainly continue tonight, as he draws a very difficult matchup against a low strikeout Red Sox team. It might be a trap to use Archer in cash games, but I can’t ignore the GPP upside at a very reasonable price tag. His SIERA and xFIP both sit two runs better than his ERA, and his 13.4% swinging strike rate matches the best mark of his career. Better times are ahead, and there’s risk/reward GPP appeal here.
The Clear-Cut Top Pitching Selection
Tonight’s slate is relatively thin on the pitching front, and deGrom is in a tier (or two) by himself at the top. He squashed any lingering injury concerns with a dominant 13 strikeout performance against the Diamondbacks his last time out, and his numbers are rock solid across the board with a low hard contact rate and SIERA/xFIP in the mid-twos. deGrom also draws the best possible matchup on the board against a Marlins team that is simply putrid as a whole offensively. It would shock me if deGrom posts anything less than 20 fantasy points here, and he obviously has the upside for 40+ on DK/FDRAFT and 50+ on FanDuel.
Jay Bruce scratched Tuesday: Jose Bautista replaces
Bruce has been scratched from the New York Mets original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins due to a manager’s decision. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by the freshly-signed Jose Bautista, who will play left field and slot directly into Bruce’s vacated fifth spot in the order, which shifts Brandon Nimmo over to right field defensively. However, the remainder of the Mets lineup will stay intact as they face off against left-hander Caleb Smith at home this evening.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo via Twitter