DFS Alerts

Start of Tuesday's PIT-CIN game will be delayed due to rain

The start of the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Reds have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of the starting pitchers like Jameson Taillon not being pulled from his start early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game still carries a decent amount of risk for pitchers and a second delay cannot be entirely ruled out.

Start of Tuesday's SDP-WAS game will be delayed due to rain

The start of the matchup between the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. The Nationals have already announced that first pitch is tentatively scheduled for 7:15 pm EST, equating to just a 10-minute delay from the original start time. Since starting pitchers from this game weren’t realistic options for any daily fantasy formats, the late start won’t do much to add to their appeal, but the delay is obviously a potentially positive sign for hitters if the teams opt to play through any potentially additional precipitation later in the evening. Additionally, as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the postponement risk appears to be relatively low in this contest, leaving hitters firmly in play for tournament formats at the very least.

Couple of spots with some delay potential in Tuesday night's forecast

Kevin’s updated forecast is up and there are a few spots with some rain potential with delay potential in a couple of spots. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can stay current with the latest updates on Crunch Time with Kevin at 6:30 ET.

Mike Leake has the highest xwOBA (.427), aEV (91.9 mph) and 95+ mph EV (50%) on the board

Mike Leake has the highest xwOBA (.427), aEV (91.9 mph) and 95+ mph EV (50%) on the board tonight. The A’s are without Khris Davis and have a moderate 4.55 implied run line and could fly under the radar here. They are a team that makes a lot of loud contact. LHBs have a .342 wOBA and 373 xwOBA against Leake since last season. Matt Olson (160 wRC+, .345 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Matt Joyce (134 wRC+, .252 ISO) offer great value in the top half of the lineup below $4K on either site.

Yankees have the top run line on the board (5.32) against Cole Hamels (RHBs .347 xwOBA, 39.9 Hard% since 2017)

Although Vegas is not as enthusiastic as yesterday, the Yankees still top the board with a 5.32 implied run line in Texas. While Cole Hamels has allowed just two of his nine HRs this season over his last five starts, he’s also only exceeded five strikeouts once in that span. While the Yankees as a whole aren’t as strong against southpaws, the top half of this order is still beastly: Aaron Hicks (120 wRC+, .173 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Aaron Judge (130 wRC+, .219 ISO), Giancarlo Stanton (212 wRC+, .451 ISO), Gary Sanchez (148 wRC+, .321 ISO). Tyler Austin (192 wRC+, .400 ISO) crushes them out of the sixth spot. Gleybor Torres only has a few PAs with the platoon advantage and is not the cheapest ninth place hitter, but has a .403 xwOBA against southpaws and if he’s going to put up another 30-burger with low ownership, who cares? RHBs have a .347 xwOBA and 39.9 Hard% against Hamels since last season.

Alex Bregman (156 wRC+, .245 ISO) is the top value play against lefty who has allowed RHBs a .426 wOBA

The Houston Astros have a 4.75 implied run line against Andrew Suarez and have a 109 wRC+ against LHP. Suarez has a 4.88 ERA, but a deceptive 3.33 SIERA built on the back of a 25 K% unsupported by his 7.4 SwStr%. His 10.1% Barrels/BBE puts his xwOBA at .350 and it could go even higher with a K% decrease. The Astros line up eight right-handers against a pitcher who has allowed the 76 right-handed hitters he’s faced to generate a .426 wOBA and 50.9 Hard%. George Springer (184 wRC+, .277 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Carlos Correa (210 wRC+, .242 ISO) are strong values at high prices, while Jose Altuve (138 wRC+, .156 ISO) has seen the power fall off slightly. Alex Bregman (156 wRC+, .245 ISO) is the top value play in the lineup. Max Stassi (212 wRC+, .306 ISO) is the newest weapon against lefties in Houston.

Tyler Chatwood has an 18.3 BB% and 7.5 SwStr%

The Cleveland Indians have a low 3.81 implied run line without a DH in an NL park against Tyler Chatwood. Although he generates lots of weak ground balls (51.4 GB%, 87 mph aEV), Chatwood has just a 7.5 SwStr% to go with his 21.5 K% and a walk rate (18.3%) that is nearly a league average strikeout rate. A high priced Cleveland top of the order is likely to go under-owned in this spot, but a small stack with Francisco Lindor (116 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (134 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (157 wRC+, .295 ISO) could pay off under the radar against a pitcher with a .353 wOBA against LHBs since last season.

Matt Koch has the highest Barrels/BBE on the board (15.7%) with batters from either side above a .400 xwOBA

The Milwaukee Brewers are the fourth team to reach a total of five implied runs as they currently sit at exactly that number tonight against Matt Koch, who allowed eight runs in his last start and still has a SIERA and xFIP nearly a run above his 4.06 ERA. His 6.14 FIP is even higher. His 15.7% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board. Batters from either side have an xwOBA above .400 with a hard hit rate above 40% since last season. Christian Yelich (134 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Lorenzo Cain (108 wRC+, .131 ISO), Travis Shaw (138 wRC+, .272 ISO) and Domingo Santana (127 wRC+, .219 ISO) are all extremely strong plays. Ji-Man Choi is a top of the order bat with some value at a much lower price and outfield eligibility on DraftKings.

Minnesota has a 4.98 implied run line, but few right-handed threats against the improving Matt Boyd

The Twins have a 4.98 implied run line that’s one of the highest marks on the board against Matt Boyd, but it might be a mistake. Only Brian Dozier (164 wRC+, .295 ISO) is above a .180 ISO against LHP over the last calendar year with Ehire Adrianza (123 wRC+, .177 ISO) the only other batter in the lineup above a 110 wRC+ against southpaws. In addition, Boyd has failed to complete six innings just once this season. He’s missing bats at a career high rate with career highs in K (21.1%), SwStr (11%) and K-BB (14.4%) rates. His .290 xwOBA is tied for third best on the board, even if his 4.6 HR/FB is not sustainable. His 25.5% 95+ mph EV is best on the board. The Twins have a 25.7 K%, 8.0 HR/FB and 8.8 Hard-Soft% against LHP as a team and Boyd is no longer the DFS punching bag he once was. He may even be worth a roster if this line completely suppresses any ownership thoughts from other players.

Anthony Rendon (165 wRC+, .304 ISO vs LHP last calendar) is one of the top plays on the board under $4K

The Washington Nationals broke out against Robbie Erlin last night and face another San Diego lefty in Eric Lauer, who has been pounded by RHBs in his short major league career (.472 wOBA, .419 xwOBA, 50.8 Hard%, 32.8 GB%). He has a strong bullpen behind him, but the damage may be done by that point. Lauer has allowed three runs or more in five innings or less in four of his five starts. Washington’s 4.94 implied run line is one of the highest marks on the board tonight. Trea Turner (89 wRC+, .109 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the only right-handed bat above $4K on either site. Anthony Rendon (165 wRC+, .304 ISO) may be one of the top plays on the board. Mark Reynolds (101 wRC+, .202 ISO) and Michael Taylor (101 wRC+, .233 ISO) are the remaining bats above a .200 ISO against LHP over the last calendar year. An interesting approach might be a Washington stack without an expensive Bryce Harper (83 wRC+, .122 ISO vs LHP last calendar year).

Dexter Folwer and Matt Carpenter are both low cost at the top of a lineup with a 5.17 implied run line

That a team with a 98 wRC+ at home and against RHP has the second highest implied run line (5.17) on the board in a negative run environment speaks to pretty strongly towards the lack of success Jason Hammel has had this season (6.28 ERA, 5.33 SIERA, .408 xwOBA, board low 11.4 K%). The absence of Tommy Pham from the lineup may even have the added advantage of making a St Louis stack more viable with high cost pitching tonight. Jose Martinez (121 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the highest priced batter in the lineup ($4K DK/$3.5K FD). Batters from either side have an actual wOBA within four points of .330 and an xwOBA within four of .350 against Hammels since last season. Leadoff man Dexter Fowler (125 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Matt Carpenter (125 wRC+, .216 ISO) are top value plays tonight. The latter has a 262 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last seven days.

Justin Bour (154 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) again stands out as a low cost value play

The Marlins (3.42) are one of five teams with an implied run line below 3.5 runs, but once again, Justin Bour (154 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) stands out as an affordable high upside first base option that could help provide a path to high cost pitching. While he can’t expect to see many plate appearances with runners on base, he’s still just too cheap for that type of production in a matchup against a pitcher who has allowed LHBs a .361 wOBA with a 39.1 Hard% since last season, including a ground ball rate (41.9%) ten points lower than against RHBs. Zack Wheeler may have some low cost upside in this matchup, but Bour is a great stand alone play.

Red Sox should see reduced ownership with a 4.31 implied run line and high price tags

The Red Sox have just a 4.31 implied run line against Jacob Faria tonight, but the question is why. He’s faced them twice (in his first two starts) this season with the following results: 5.2 IP – 9 H – 9 R – 1 HR – 8 BB – 2 K. Even if a 4:1 walk to strikeout ratio is not expected to continue, he’s below a league average strikeout rate with a .385 xwOBA and an ERA with estimators above five. If this run projection is going to mean Mookie Betts (117 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (153 wRC+, .351 ISO) are going to see decreased ownership, along with Andrew Benintendi (122 wRC+, .195 ISO), this could be a great spot to use them, especially considering how difficult high priced pitching will make it to afford them (Betts now costs $6K on DraftKIngs!). While batters from either side of the plate have a .310 or lower wOBA against Faria since last season, xwOBA increases both sides above .330. Right-handed batters have a 36.8 Hard% against him as well.

Left-handed batters have a .418 wOBA/xwOBA against Matt Harvey since last season

The Pittsburgh Pirates have an implied run line of exactly five tonight, good enough for third best on a 15 game slate in a power friendly park against a power friendly pitcher. Matt Harvey has allowed 28 HRs in 128 innings since last season and now makes his first home start for the Reds. Aside from the recently called up Austin Meadows, the entire Pittsburgh lineup has a 96 or better wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year, though nobody exceeds a .193 ISO. LHBs have a .418 wOBA and xwOBA against Harvey since last season. Gregory Polanco (99 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Corey Dickerson (100 wRC+, .189 ISO), Josh Bell (106 wRC+, .186 ISO) and Colin Moran (132 wRC+, .168 ISO) are all solid plays at reasonable cost.

Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer may be the pitchers that can be counted on to go at least six innings tonight (all have averaged at least that over the last two calendar years), while Matt Boyd, James Shields, Chad Bettis and Kevin Gausman have all also averaged at least six innings per start this year. On the other end of the spectrum, Brock Stewart, Eric Lauer, Lance Lynn, Caleb Smith, Matt Harvey and Jacob Faria have averaged five innings or less per start. While the Dodger pen has the sixth highest FIP (4.25) in baseball having tied for the third most HRs (24), they’re probably better than that, while the San Diego pen has been a strength (15.6 K-BB%, 3.38 FIP). The Twins have a 4.54 FIP (third worst) on back of a league leading 26 bullpen HRs allowed. The Marlins are right below them (4.44 FIP, 25 HRs) in both spots. The Reds (12.4 K-BB%, 3.90 FIP) and Rays (13.4 K-BB%, 4.04 FIP) have middling pens. These are the bullpens likely to get the most work tonight.