DFS Alerts

Finally Throwing a Full Complement of Pitches

Maeda makes a lot of sense as an SP2 to pair with Jacob deGrom, although it does leave you a little strapped for cash. In eight starts this season, Maeda has a 3.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. The best part is that he has thrown at least 96 pitches in three of his last four starts. If you look at last season’s game log, he rarely threw more than 95 pitches. Perhaps the Dodgers are finally loosening the reigns a bit. I’m always a fan of picking on the Rockies away from Coors Field.

Chalk Never Tasted so Good

Justin Verlander was the clear option in the early slate and Jacob deGrom is the clear option in the main slate. As I always say, we should only fade the chalk when there are viable alternatives. There are none in tonight’s slate. DeGrom owns a 2.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34% this season and he gets to face a weak Marlins’ offense at home. Miami’s projected lineup has a .306 xwOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Aaron Sanchez is still inducing ground balls, but has a 12.8 BB%

Aaron Sanchez is still generating ground balls above a 50% clip, but is otherwise walking everyone in the park (12.8%), which turns his 10.6 SwStr% into just a 17.6 K%. Batters from etiher side of the plate have an xwOBA within five points of .370 against him since last season, which makes a predominantly right-handed Angels’ lineup a legitimate stack at 4.62 implied runs, which is how players might want to approach pitchers with high walk rates. Mike Trout (178 wRC+, .322 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Shohei Ohtani (190 wRC+, .358 ISO) are expensive, but project strongly tonight.

Cheap Leadoff Hitter

If you’re playing on FanDuel tonight, it’s really hard to overlook Brett Gardner’s price tag. Doug Fister is one of the worse pitchers in baseball and faces the Yankees in Texas tonight. Since the start of 2017, Fister has a .333 wOBA with a 40% hard hit rate against left-handed hitters. He does have a decent ground ball rate, but his average exit velocity and hard hit really put the Yankees as a top offense tonight. Gardner has a .342 wOBA with a .163 ISO against righties since the start of 2017, and a very low strikeout rate with an above average walk rate. He’s a cheap leadoff hitter in the top offense on the slate.

Low Owned Value Option

One of the top prospects in baseball was called up, though he won’t be up for long. The Rays are expected to send Willy Adames back to AAA later this week, but we can certainly take advantage of it tonight against David Price. I highly doubt a lot of people know who he is and are willing to play him against David Price. He’s hitting .311 with a .377 wOBA and a 141 wRC+ in AAA this season. He’s not a massive power guy, but he’s a very talented young player. I like paying down at shortstop, and I’m going to take advantage of playing Adames before he’s sent back down. Plus, he has something to prove.

Adam Plutko allowed six extra base hits (no singles) in his first major league start

Adam Plutko was called a “fringe relief arm” in Fangraphs’ pre-season assessment of the Cleveland organization. The 26 year-old has thrown over 250 innings at AAA with a below average strikeout rate the last few years. He pitched 7.1 innings with six strikeouts against the Blue Jays in his first career start, allowing three doubles to left-handed hitters plus three solo home runs. Left-handed batters made hard contact on 75% of batted balls in that start. Ian Happ (117 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Kyle Schwarber (137 wRC+, .316 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (129 wRC+, .217 ISO) look great in the top half of this lineup, especially.

Nice Value Spot In This Spot

Chad Kuhl really struggled with left-handed hitters last season, and it hasn’t gotten any better this season. He has a .421 wOBA with a .339 ISO and a 26.7% hard to soft contact ratio against lefties this season. It’s one of my favorite spots to attack tonight, and his fly ball tendencies are not going to help him in this ballpark. Winker isn’t going to give you a lot of power upside, but batting leadoff, he’s a really nice value play in this spot. Since being called up last season, he has a .376 wOBA with a 36.3% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching.

High Risk / High Reward

I’m really interested in Gohara tonight, and I’m interested in what this lineup will look like for the Phillies. There is risk here for sure, but on a slate with deGrom, I’m willing to attack the upside that Gohara has. He’s been working out of the bullpen, but the Atlanta beat writer told me this morning that he’s stretched out. I would expect him to pitch at least 80 pitches tonight as long as he’s pitching well. He posted a 25.2% strikeout rate with a 3.83 xFIP and a 6.5% walk rate in 2017. He struggled with right-handed power hitters, and that’s the one thing I’m worried about playing him tonight. Some of these righties have big strikeout rates against lefties, and Gohara was elite against lefties. Again, I really like the risk/reward in this spot, and I’m hoping it works out.

The Chicago White Sox (16.5 K-BB% vs RHP) have a 4.52 implied run line, but Alex Cobb could be a sneaky, cheap play tonight. Velocity has been trending up, while he’s gone six innings with three runs or less in three of his last four starts. Three strikeouts against the Red Sox last time out should keep ownership way down, but he had his highest swinging strike rate of the season (10.1%) in the start immediately preceding that. Cobb got a late start after holding out for a bigger contract, but may finally be ready to start his season.

Homer Bailey has allowed 11 HRs over his last seven starts, at least three runs in each one

Batters from either side of the plate exceed both a wOBA and xwOBA against Homer Bailey since last season. As such, the Pirates have a third best 4.87 implied run line in Cincinnati tonight. Bailey has allowed 11 HRs over his last seven starts with at least three runs in each one. His .412 xwOBA is somehow just third worst on the board. All Cincinnati bats are viable options tonight, Josh Harrison (97 wRC+, .141 ISO vs RHP last calendar years) and Francisco Cervelli (129 wRC+, .148 ISO) cost around $3K each on FanDuel with neither crossing the $4K barrier on DraftKings at the top of the lineup.

Chris Archer (13.4 SwStr%) costs $6.7K against the Red Sox (3.85 implied runs)

By pure implied run line (3.85) and cost ($6.7K on DraftKings), Chris Archer would seem a great secondary choice, especially with a 13.4 SwStr% suggests improvement to his 22.4 K%. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in three straight and allowed more that two runs in just two of his last six, but daily fantasy players know that nothing is ever simple and easy with Archer. He also faces the Red Sox (120 wRC+, 18.3 K%, 15 HR/FB vs RHP this season), which makes the Vegas set line below four runs a bit of a surprise, though he does get them in a negative run environment at home. While Mookie Betts (119 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (155 wRC+, .351 ISO) play well against anyone, they may be a bit price prohibitive in this spot with lowered expectations. Archer is a cheap hit or miss play, who can either boost or sink lineups tonight.

First four in the Cincinnati order line up left-handed against Chad Kuhl (LHBs .380 wOBA since 2017)

The Cincinnati Reds have a fairly high 4.63 Vegas run line at home against a pitcher, Chad Kuhl, who has some well-established issues with left-handed batters (.380 wOBA, 39.6 Hard%, 34.9 GB% since last season). That’s not good news in one of the most power friendly parks in the league. Joey Votto (168 wRC+, .436 xwOBA, .218 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Scooter Gennett (147 wRC+, .261 ISO) are strong candidates to do some damage, while Jesse Winker (134 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Tucker Barnhart (98 wRC+, .139 ISO) offer low cost value out of the top two spots.

David Price faces the Rays for the fourth time in 10 starts this year

David Price opened his season with 14 shutout innings against Tampa Bay (10 Ks) and has been very hit or miss since then, including a season high four walks and two HRs in his third meeting with the team. This will be the fourth time he’s facing them in 10 starts, coming off a complete game with eight strikeouts against the Orioles. Advantage usually lies with the offense when seeing a pitcher so frequently, so although the Rays have the fourth lowest implied run line on the board (3.65), Price with a league average strikeout rate, ERA and estimators (plus a. .343 xwOBA) should not be treated as a sure thing in the $8K range. He throws some version of a fastball 80% of the time. While the Rays are one of the top fastball hitting teams in the majors, they don’t have many batters who fare well against Cutters, the pitch Price throws most often against RHBs this year (37% via Statcast). C.J. Cron (129 wRC+, .258 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has a .497 Contact xwOBA against that pitch (40 BBE) since 2016 and may be the most likely to do some damage against Price in this lineup. Price, Cron and/or no exposure to this matchup would all be acceptable here.

Marcell Ozuna scratched Wednesday; Tyler O'Neill replaces

Ozuna has been scratched from the St. Louis Cardinals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by the freshly-signed Tyler O’Neill, who will play left field and slot directly into Ozuna’s cleanup spot in the order, which enables the remainder of the Cardinals lineup to stay intact as they face off against right-hander Jakob Junis at home this afternoon.

Erick Fedde (#4 Washington prospect) makes 2018 debut against Padres (26.3 K% vs RHP)

Tyson Ross faces Erick Fedde in Washington in the late afternoon game that is only available on the DraftKings afternoon slate. Lineups are not available yet. Ross has gone at least six innings in all but one start this season, though is coming off his worst by peripherals (4 BBs, 2 Ks) in Pittsburgh. His 24.3 K% is third best among day games, while he continues to struggle against LHBs (.344 wOBA this season vs .214 for RHBs). This should work in his favor against a predominantly right-handed lineup, but makes Bryce Harper and Juan Soto strong choices with the low price tag of the latter complimenting the expensive one of the former. Fedde has a 16.2 K-BB% at AAA this season and is the fourth rated prospect in the Washington system (Fangraphs). With a Future Value grade of 45, the curveball was considered his best pitch coming into the season. He walked 10.5% of batters in three major league starts (15.1 innings) last year. He costs $6.3K and the Padres have a 26.3 K% vs RHP.