DFS Alerts
Walker Beuhler has the top K (30.4%) & GB (53.7%) rates, but just an 8.4 SwStr% & no more than six IP yet
The Colorado Rockies have a team 65 wRC+ vs RHP (24.2 K%) and only two batters above a 90 wRC+ or .170 ISO on the road since last season: Charlie Blackmon (129 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Nolan Arenado (120 wRC+, .212 ISO). This gives Walker Buehler the top matchup on the board in what is probably the most negative run environment in play tonight. His board leading 30.4 K% and 53.7 GB% are also in favor of his daily fantasy candidacy tonight with the drawbacks being that such a strikeout rate is not supported by an 8.4 SwStr%, while he carries the highest price tag on FanDuel ($9.5K) without having exceeded 97 pitches or six innings in a start yet. However, the strikeout rate is supported by similar rates throughout the minors and every pitcher in his price range or near it has serious flaws. He’s tough to avoid in non-GPPs and some exposure should be considered in those as well, though are enough reasons (including potentially ownership) for players to consider other options as well.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
Low concern, but a few spots to watch in Monday's forecast
The overall level of concern is much lower than it has been recently, but there are still a few spots to watch in Monday night’s forecast. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can tune into Crunch Time at 6:30 ET, where Kevin will give further updates.
Yankees have the top implied run line (5.67) against Bartolo Colon (90.2 mph aEV, 6.1 SwStr%) in Texas
Bartolo Colon has a 2.82 ERA and while both his SIERA and xFIP are below four, his 4.48 FIP and 5.29 DRA both tell a more dangerous story considering his 90.2 mph aEV, 44.2% 95+ mph EV, and 6.1 SwStr%, all of which are worst on today’s board. The Yankees visit Texas with a 5.67 implied run line that’s more than a half run higher than any other team on the board tonight. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA within five points of .350 against him since last year, while lefties have a 41 Hard% with just a 38.3 GB%. While that side of the plate is not where the power lies in this lineup, there will be four left-handed bats in the Yankee lineup tonight, all of whom exceed a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year with none exceeding a $4.1K price tag on either site. Of the four right-handed batters, all except Tyler Austin (75 wRC+) exceed a 120 wRC+ and all five are above a .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Tyler Austin (378), Gary Sanchez (344), Aaron Hicks (258), Giancarlo Stanton (182) and Gleyber Torres (162) all exceed a 160 wRC+ over the last seven days. Paying up for Yankee bats could be more rewarding than paying up for pitching tonight.
Other tagged players: Tyler Austin, Bartolo Colon, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres Hector Santiago has allowed 12 runs in 13 innings with 12 walks (nine Ks) in three starts
Hector Santiago has pitched mostly out of the bullpen for the White Sox this season and for good reason. In three starts, he has allowed 12 runs in 13 innings with 12 walks and nine strikeouts (two home runs). While he’s actually been better against RHBs since last season, xwOBA brings him up 48 points to .339 against them, which is around his career mark and good news for a Baltimore offense that lines up eight righties against him. This lineup has a 4.57 implied run line that’s fourth highest on the board, but only Manny Machado (126 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) above $3.8K on either site. Jonathan Schoop (165 wRC+, .287 ISO) is still under-priced. Danny Valencia (116 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Trey Mancini (110 wRC+, .151 ISO) are the only other two bats to reach a 110 wRC+ or .150 ISO against southpaws over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Hector Santiago, Trey Mancini, Danny Valencia Brian Dozier has a 167 wRC+ and .299 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year
The Minnesota Twins have a 5.09 implied run line against the Detroit bullpen, which will start the game with Blaine Hardy, who threw a season high 79 pitches in the first start of his major league career on May 13th. Brian Dozier (167 wRC+, .299 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the only significant threat against southpaws in this lineup and perhaps he’ll get to face Hardy twice, but the Twins could be seeing more right-handed pitching the second and third time through the order.
Other tagged players: Blaine Hardy Masahiro Tanaka is a high risk (nine HRs), high reward (13.8 SwStr%) pitcher in Texas tonight
Masahiro Tanaka (13.8 SwStr%) has immense upside against a confirmed Texas lineup with a .304 wOBA and 25 K% vs RHP since last year according to PlateIQ and just a 3.84 implied run line. However, he’s also a home run prone pitcher (nine in nine starts), who has struggled with a difficult schedule recently. Premium subscribers will want to check his ownership projections (available on it’s own page and in LineupHQ), but there are legitimate reasons to both roster Tanaka and choice Texas bats tonight. Joey Gallo (118 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the masher, but Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Robinson Chirinos and Rougned Odor all have an ISO between .190 and .212 against RHP over the last calendar year. Tanaka has no platoon split. Batters from either side of the plate are within two points of a .320 xwOBA since last season.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Robinson Chirinos, Rougned Odor Cardinals (5.03) are the lowest of three teams above five implied runs tonight
The St Louis Cardinals (5.03) are the lowest of three teams above five implied runs tonight. Ian Kennedy has increased his swinging strike rate close to his career rate over the last month (9.2%) and has a chance to be better than terrible in a power suppressing park, such as St Louis is. There’s a non-zero chance he can exceed a $5.5K price tag on DraftKings against a lineup missing a few bats. On the other side, Matt Carpenter (122 wRC+, .214 ISO), Tommy Pham (148 wRC+, .191 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (124 wRC+, .214 ISO) all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, though the latter continues to struggle in his new uniform and has a -72 wRC+ over the last week. Reasonable arguments can be made for exposure to either side of this matchup as well as avoiding it.
Other tagged players: Ian Kennedy, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna Phillies elect to attack pitcher with major platoon issues (LHBs .350+ wOBA/xwOBA) with a more balanced lineup
Gabe Kapler is choosing to attack Michael Foltynewicz with a balanced lineup and something like hitting Maikel Franco (90 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP last calendar year, -37 wRC+, 16.7 Hard% last seven days) could be a major mistake (LHBs .309 wOBA, 26.2 Hard% vs Foltynewicz since last season). However, LHBs perform pretty soundly against him (.350+ wOBA and xwOBA since last season), which not only makes him a difficult roster above $9K on DraftKings, but it makes Odubel Herrera (137 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Carlos Santana (121 wRC+, .234 ISO) viable plays, though it would be nice to see the latter hitting higher than fifth in the order with both carrying a price tag of $4K or higher on either site.
Other tagged players: Mike Foltynewicz, Carlos Santana, Maikel Franco Brandon Nimmo (150 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) costs less than $3.5K vs Rule 5 draftee
Elieser Hernandez is a Rule 5 pick with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). He has pitched a total of 17 innings above A ball, all this season and has struck out just three of 33 major league batters faced. The Mets lineup is heating up with only Michael Conforto (142 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) costing more than $3.6K on either site. Brandon Nimmo (150 wRC+, .204 ISO) is an amazing value at $3.4K or less on either site. Both he and Conforto crack a 150 or better wRC+ over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Elieser Hernandez Daniel Palka is inexpensive with a 116 wRC+, .314 ISO and .371 xwOBA against RHP
Andrew Cashner has a 20.6 K%, but with a 6.9 SwStr% that’s second lowest on the board. He also has a .284 BABIP well below his terrible team .322 BABIP. His .389 xwOBA is second worst to a pitcher who has made just three starts. His 12.5% Barrels/BBE is worst on the board. It’s bad by his ERA and estimators right around five but it could get worse. LHBs have a .330 wOBA, .343 xwOBA and 36.7 GB% against him since last season. RHBs have a .349 wOBA that’s 44 points above actual as well, but with a 54.1 GB%. The top bats for the White Sox (4.43 implied runs) are Jose Abreu (141 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Yoan Moncada (137 wRC+, .239 ISO), but Daniel Palka (116 wRC+, .314 ISO) bats cleanup at a low price on either site ($3.7 DK/$2.7 FD) and is supported by a .371 xwOBA against RHP.
Other tagged players: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Andrew Cashner Daily Bullpen Alert: Relievers will start for the Tigers and Padres tonight
Miles Mikolas and Zack Greinke are two of the three pitchers who have averaged more than six innings per start both this year. Greinke is one of two do have done so over the last two calendar years (Mikolas pitched outside the country). The other two pitchers to have averaged six innings or more over either of those spans are both in Texas. Masahiro Tanaka has struggled with a difficult schedule and dropped below that this season, but the Yankee bullpen has a 33.6 K%. Bartolo Colon is one of three pitchers to average six innings per start this season, but he’s facing the Yankees. The Ranger bullpen has a 20.9 K% that’s fifth worse in baseball, but with just 17 HRs allowed and moderate ERA estimators. Blaine Hardy and Robby Erlin come out of the pen to start tonight. While the pen has been a source of strength for the Padres (25.4 K%, 3.25 FIP), the Detroit bullpen (20.6 K%) may be one to attack, though they’ve allowed just 16 HRs, generating a FIP about a half run below their xFIP and actual ERA. Hector Santiago and Jason Vargas have both averaged fewer than five innings in three starts each. The White Sox have an average bullpen by strikeouts, HRs and FIP, but their 4.42 ERA is ninth worse in baseball. The Mets have the ninth best bullpen SIERA (3.61) and just one lefty (Blevins) behind Vargas, but he’ll most certainly be seeing Justin Bour late in the game if it matters with no other left-handed threats in that lineup. Lastly, Ian Kennedy has averaged just over five innings per start this season and the Kansas City bullpen remains the worst in the league (16.3 K%, 24 HRs allowed).
Exploitable Price On FanDuel
In 24.2 innings against righties this season, Hector Santiago has a .323 wOBA with a .207 ISO and a 19.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. He had a really high xFIP and hard hit rate against righties last season as well, but did have an above average wOBA. Trey Mancini had a low wOBA against lefties, but his advanced numbers were always really good. This season his ISO and wOBA are both up against lefties and he has a 0% infield fly ball rate. The ground ball rate worries me, but not against a fly ball pitcher like Santiago, so I’ll be targeting Mancini at this appealing price tag.
Home Run Hitter in a Homer-Friendly Matchup
There are a lot of good batters to pay up for tonight, but my favorite is Tommy Pham. Pham currently owns a .390 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate against right-handed hitters. He draws an elite matchup against Ian Kennedy, who has given up as many home runs as any pitcher in baseball over the last two seasons. If we look at Kennedy’s splits from this season alone, he has allowed a .398 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to righties.
Tonight's top strikeout rates and highest priced pitchers all have some issues
The highest strikeout rates on the board belong to Walker Buehler (30.4%), Nick Pivetta (28.2%) and Mike Foltynewicz (27.9%). Two of those pitchers have a swinging strike rate below 9%, the latter with a significant platoon problem (LHBs .356 wOBA since last season). The guy in the middle is facing the Braves (19.9 K% vs RHP). While Buehler may have the top park adjusted matchup on the board (Rockies 65 wRC+ vs RHP), he struggled for the first time in a similarly strong matchup last time in Miami, in which he threw a career high 97 pitches. While he’s likely to come out strong here and has the ability to cover a price tag in excess of $9K, he’ll have little margin for error as the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. Players may want to look towards strong contact managers tonight. Jose Berrios righted the ship in St Louis. While 10 strikeouts brings his season rate up to 23.5%, he has the top aEV (85.2 mph) and second best 95+ mph EV (26.8%) with a .297 xwOBA that’s a top five mark as well. Buehler tops the board with a .255 xwOBA, 1.5% Barrels/BBE and 26.5% 95+ mph EV. Berrios is taking on the Tigers, who don’t strike out a ton (21% vs RHP), but play towards his strength with an 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP. He costs around $8.5K on either site and stands a good chance of getting seven innings of quality run prevention in. Gio Gonzalez (25.2 K%) faces the Padres (25.5 K%, but 14.9 HR/FB vs LHP) and Zack Greinke (26.6 K%) faces the Brewers (24.5 K% vs RHP), but both cost $12K on DraftKings. Gonzalez has completed six innings just three times this year, while Greinke has struck out just 16 of his last 72 batters and has to be nearly perfect to compensate for continued velocity loss and an 89.4 mph aEV. Masahiro Tanaka may be a wild card tonight. Recent strikeouts are down, though he’s faced a ridiculous schedule and the swinging strike rate remains elite (9.9% or better in every start this year). He’s facing the Rangers (18.2 K-BB% vs RHP) in Texas (22.9 Hard-Soft% at home) and has continued his home run issues into this season (nine allowed in nine starts).
Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka, Walker Buehler, Nick Pivetta, Mike Foltynewicz, Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke It's Time for Luck to be on his Side
Matt Carpenter has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball this season. If you look at his wOBA against right-handed pitching, it’s nothing special (right around .300). If you look at his expected wOBA (based on where and how hard he has been hitting the ball), it’s over .400. He has hit the ball well in his last few games and we can expect a lot more where that came from. The Cardinals are one of the top offenses to target tonight, as they square off against the hittable Ian Kennedy at home.