DFS Alerts
Gerrit Cole (40.8 K%, 16 SwStr%, .255 xwOBA) and Chris Sale (34.9 K%, 16.2 SwStr%, .254 xwOBA) top Tuesday pitching options
Gerrit Cole (40.8 K%, 16 SwStr%, .255 xwOBA) and Chris Sale (34.9 K%, 16.2 SwStr%, .254 xwOBA) appear nearly interchangeable atop tonight’s board. They’re opponents each have a nearly identical 2.7 implied run line at the bottom of the board. Both are pitching in dome capable stadiums without weather concerns in negative run environments. Potential lineup surprises, an extreme umpire assignment and ownership projections (all three available to premium subscribers) would seem to make the difference tonight. The Rays have had some success against pitchers who feature fastballs and curveballs. Sale features sliders and changeups nearly half the time, two pitches the Rays, as a team, have had less success against via Fangraphs weighted pitch metrics. Cole has failed to pitch into the seventh inning for the first two times this season in his last two starts, but has remained consistent in his pitch counts. The Giants are not pushovers (104 wRC+, 23.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but also have an 18.3 K-BB% vs RHP. Quite a bit behind those two is Trevor Bauer. His 27.2 K% this season is just outside the top five on tonight’s board, but improvements in contact management this season have driven him to a .290 xwOBA that ties for third. He’s gotten at least two outs in the seventh in six of his nine starts this year. The Cubs (10.7 K-BB% vs RHP) at Wrigley may be one of the toughest matchups on the board tonight. Other interesting arms include Trevor Cahill, who struck out just one Boston batter in his last start, but has struck out 20 in 12 innings at home this season and has the second best SwStr rate (14.7%) on the board. Jeremy Hellickson has doubled up on his curveball usage (24%) and has a career high 21.5 K% with a .296 xwOBA. Zack Wheeler has added a splitter that’s been as inconsistent as he’s been, but he has at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four and his best start of the season (7 IP – 2 H – 1 ER – 7 K) against the team he faces tonight (Marlins). Each of the last three pitchers cost between $7-8K on either site tonight. At the bottom of the board, Brock Stewart has elite strikeout rates in the minors that he’s failed to reach in the majors and may be lucky to complete five innings, but he’s near minimum price with the best park adjusted matchup on the board (Rockies 63 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP). Brandon McCarthy rode increased velocity and 50% cutters to a season high eight strikeouts last time ou t and is in another high strikeout upside spot in Philadelphia (26.7 K% vs RHP) tonight. Caleb Smith may not be able to sustain his 30+% strikeout rate (10.6 SwStr% last 30 days), but faces a Mets’ offense (69 wRC+, 26.7 K%, 6.0 HR/FB vs LHP) with much of their right-handed power disabled at the moment.
Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Trevor Bauer, Trevor Cahill, Jeremy Hellickson, Zack Wheeler, Brock Stewart, Brandon McCarthy, Caleb Smith
Chasing
I’ll admit, I’m 100% chasing (Chac-in?) here but I am back on the Diamondbacks trio on Tuesday night. Lamb was the only one who produced on Monday night as he hit a solo shot but all three remain underpriced on a night where they receive a park boost + have a favorable matchup against Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin blanked the Diamondbacks in Arizona his last time out but his advanced run prevention metrics (4.43 FIP, 4.96 xFIP, 5.11 SIERA) have him as a well below average starter despite his 3.63 ERA. The secondary Diamondbacks are so cheap that you can actually run a DBacks Stack + Cole + Sale as long as you leave one of Lamb/Goldy out (it’s not pretty).
Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, David Peralta
Speed Stack
// UPDATE: Welp, Dee Gordon to the DL. I still like using Segura as a “one-off” in GPPs. // As opposed to telling you guys how good of power plays Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are against Cole Hamels down in Arlington are, I’m going to highlight a perhaps overlooked speed matchup for the night. Trevor Cahill is the owner of a career -8 rSB (stolen bases runs saved above average) and has the undesirable of duty of having to try to keep Dee Gordon and Jean Segura in check (provided they get on base). I’m not looking to stack against Cahill aggressively, but do like the idea of using these guys as a one-two punch when filling out other stacks. Segura specifically will likely go completely overlooked because SS is stacked this slate and he has shown his upside lately, recording 20, 26, and 39 DK point performances in three of his last ten games.
Other tagged players: Jean Segura Power Stack
Despite poor overall performances for most of the season, the Baltimore Orioles remain one of my favorite teams to stack because of their power upside. Baltimore has a handful of hitters with multiple HR upside and they get a good HR matchup against James Shields at Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday night. I am hoping that Shields recent string of relative success suppresses O’s ownership a bit on a full slate because I am not a believer of Shields being even a league average pitcher. Shields owns the fifth widest gap between wOBA (.287) and xWOBA (.364) of all pitchers who have 150+ plate appearances under their belts.
Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Trey Mancini, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop Extreme Splits
We’ve been here before. Lynn would be a well above league average pitcher as long as he could strictly face right handed batters. The Twins righty has extreme career splits – .281 wOBA, 3.09 xFIP, 26.3 K% vs RHB; .346 wOBA, 5.03 xFIP, 17.6 K% – and gets the benefit of facing the righty heavy Tigers lineup who ran out seven right handed bats against the right handed Berrios on Monday. Lynn is a riskier proposition than someone like Caleb Smith but does offer a significant discount ($5,800 FD; $4,500 DK) from the already cheap Smith, which helps mitigate some of that risk.
#Nice
So, Caleb Smith might be #good. At the very least, Smith is priced too low for the skill-set he has shown so far this year + Tuesday night’s matchup. Smith has started nine games for the Marlins this year and is the owner of a 3.73 SIERA and 31.5% strikeout rate. It seems unlikely that Smith will maintain a strikeout rate north of 30% as the season progresses but he gets a strong strikeout matchup against the Mets who own the third highest strikeout rate against LHP on the season (26.7%). The Mets also own a woeful 69 (#nice) wRC+ versus southpaws to pair with their propensity to strikeout. Smith pops as the top pt/$ play at the SP position on DK and gets the added benefit of a very pitcher friendly ump in Mike Estabrook.
His Turn Tonight
Rendon is the one Washington bat that did not go nuts last night, but he is also the one with by far the best overall skill set against left-handed pitchers, and he’s the Nationals bat I’m most interested in playing tonight. In the early going this season he has a 57% hard hit rate against lefties, and pulling back to the bigger 2017-2018 sample size, we see a .319 ISO and .430 wOBA that are far and away the highest marks of anyone on this Nationals roster. With Eric Lauer showing low strikeouts and no ability to control batted balls to righties, this looks like an elite spot for Rendon. On DK, you can move Carpenter to second base to use Rendon at third. He’s less of a priority on FanDuel, but I like the idea of using both Rendon and Carpenter with the UT spot tonight.
Bad Luck Has To Stop Soon
I really liked Marcell Ozuna yesterday, and I’m going right back to the well with him and Matt Carpenter tonight. Jason Hammel has struggled overall this season, and with his low strikeout rate and high hard-hit rate, I’m loading up on hitters against him. He has a 38.7% hard hit rate with an 8.5% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. Ozuna has a .231 wOBA but he a .338 xwOBA. He also has a 48.5% hard hit rate with an average exit velocity of 92.5, which is the highest on the Cardinals this season. Ozuna has simply been getting unlucky, and like Matt Carpenter, I’d expect him to snap out of it soon.
An Easy Play At This Salary
Marcell Ozuna is even cheaper than teammate Matt Carpenter after a slow start, but this salary against Jason Hammel is just silly for Ozuna’s overall ability. If you’re concerned about the long slump for Ozuna, I understand, but he did get a couple hits last night, and even in his slumber, he was still scoring some runs in the middle of this lineup. There is nothing wrong with his skills, his strikeouts are the same level as 2017, and he is hitting the ball extremely hard, just waiting for things to fall his way. Jason Hammel has just a 15.8% strikeout rate to righties since 2017, which is down to a ridiculous 8.5% this season. He is not even limiting hard contact, all he’s doing is throwing hittable strikes and just turning around and hoping to see his defenders make plays.
Please Crack The Lineup
It’s always hard to guess what lineups will look like early in the morning, but I’m hoping Choi cracks the lineup against Koch, who has a 5.02 xFIP with a 45.5% hard hit rate this season. He’s really struggled with righties, but his numbers against lefties have some regression coming. Koch has allowed a .211 ISO with 25.8% hard to soft contact ratio against lefties this season, and 43.5% of the balls in play have an average exit velocity over 95mph. His well hit rate is not low enough, so I love the Brewers again tonight. In 24 Major League plate appearances against righties, Choi has a .464 wOBA with a .550 ISO.
He's Back!
There is no more wondering what is wrong with Matt Carpenter. Nothing is wrong with Matt Carpenter! It was a slow start to the season, but he was hitting the ball hard the whole time, and just falling victim to bad luck and a little bit of over-anxious hitting that led to a few too many strikeouts and high fly balls. But he has it figured out now with 13 hits in his last six games including a home run and seven doubles. He faces the lowest strikeout pitcher on this entire slate and is way too cheap for the matchup.
Play One Of These Aces
Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale are in a league of their own tonight. You will not be able to afford both of these aces, but I can’t see a way to separate them tonight. They are so far ahead of the rest of the field, that I see it as a must to play one of them in cash games on all sites, and it should be a priority in tournaments. Cole still has the higher strikeout rate, at an elite 40.8%, but Sale is back to his 2017 form with 36 strikeouts in his last three starts. Both guys have low 6% walk rates and favorable matchups. The immense strikeouts combined with strong control give both aces high floors and limitless ceilings. I am slightly leaning towards Cole in cash games, but at this point, I plan to be a 50/50 split in tournaments. Both guys should be great, and either one could have the can’t miss 15-K type of start tonight.
Other tagged players: Chris Sale Is He Finally Healthy?
Some may not know who Austin Meadows is, but the ninth overall draft pick is finally in a Major League uniform. DraftKings and FantasyDraft were quick to raise his price, but he’s still under $3K over on FanDuel. There is already talk over Meadows being sent back down, but if he keeps hitting like he has been, I don’t see how they can. Meadows draws an excellent matchup tonight against Matt Harvey, and considering it’s a 15-game slate, I’d expect him to be pretty low owned. Since the start of 2017, Harvey has allowed a .410 wOBA with a .289 ISO to go with a 14.4% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters.
Low Owned In A Great Spot
I’ve been picking on the Marlins all season, so I’m not going to stop tonight with Zack Wheeler. The Marlins project to feature six right-handed hitters and the pitcher against Wheeler, who has a .325 wOBA with a .216 ISO and a 50.7% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters this season. The impressive thing is his soft contact against righties. He has a 27.8% soft contact rate with a -5.6% hard to soft contact ratio against righties this season. Wheeler does throw his fastball a lot, but he’s mixing in his slider and curveball enough to keep hitters off balance, and when looking at a young team like the Marlins, I like the idea of picking a guy like Wheeler that can get them off balance all game. Realmuto and Bour have ISOs over .250 this season, but the next highest is all the way down at .136. They’re also the only two players that have a wOBA over .300 against right-handed pitching this season.
I Don't Usually Target This Pitcher
I’m not a “Garrett Richards guy”, but I am a “sliders against Toronto guy”, and Richards has thrown his slider over 45% of the time against right-handed hitters since the start of 2017. He also has a 26.3% strikeout rate with a 54.9% groundball rate. Even better, Richards has an 18% swinging strike rate with a .244 xwOBA against right-handed hitters with his slider so far this season. With his strikeout upside and his groundball rate, I think Richards is pretty safe in this matchup. While the projected Blue Jays starters have a solid wOBA and ISO against righties this season, they also have a 26.1% strikeout rate, and everyone except Solarte has a 30%+ whiff rate on sliders since the start of 2017.