DFS Alerts
Still A Thing Against Lefties
The Twins fall below some elite offenses tonight, but Dozier stands out as a strong individual play in all formats. His numbers are down a little this season, but he still looks like the same guy against lefties, with more walks than strikeout showing his strong eye at the plate. The one thing Brent Suter does is throw strikes, so we’re very likely to see balls in play from Dozier, and with his long history of power against lefties (.280 ISO since 2017), he has both power and on base upside at a fair price.
Charlie Morton faces tall task vs Cleveland on Friday
Charlie Morton has been lights out this season, with a ERA around 2 and a whip at .97, he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately tonight he goes up against one of the best offenses in the game vs the Cleveland Indians. Morton has a 28% K rate and the Indians tend to strike out a lot, with a 24% strikeout rate. Morton also features a 53% ground ball rate while continuing to limit the hard contact vs opponents. Vegas and bettors have leaned towards the Astros to win this evening, giving the Indians a measley 3.6 TT and dropping while the Astros are favored at -166 and has already climbed since open. If you want to pay up, but want to avoid the chalk in Scherzer, Morton could be a solid contrarian play this evening.
Attacking the Worst Pitcher of the Night
Matt Moore has been some kind of terrible for the Rangers this year. His WHIP has ballooned to 2.00, and while that is somewhat of an antiquated season-long stat, it still shows just how bad he has been. He is allowing a 62% hard contact rate to lefties and a 48% hard contact rate to righties, and a ball is bound to head for the moon every time he starts. The White Sox don’t have the best lineup in the league, but I like a mini-stack here. Tim Anderson should lead off against the lefty and is affordably priced, while Davidson has a lot of power and Abreu is the steadying force. Expect a high-scoring game in Chicago after last night’s dud.
Other tagged players: Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson
Attacking a Declining Lefty
There simply isn’t much left in the tank as far as a skill set for Brett Anderson. He might still generate an above average ground ball rate, but that’s about it. He doesn’t blow the ball by anyone, he is walking more hitters these days, and there isn’t anything to fear. RHBs have posted a .475 wOBA against him on the young season, and Toronto will probably stack up the RHBs tonight. They are a strong stack in all GPP formats, with the power of Josh Donaldson leading the way, and you can probably fit in some value or some mid-range plays to round out your GPP stack.
Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte, Russell Martin, Teoscar Hernandez Go Back to the Well
The Rangers were a disappointment last night against James Shields and the White Sox, and that came with most of the Texas bats at very high DFS ownership. Given the recency bias that still exists, we will see much lower ownership on the Rangers here tonight. They draw a similarly good matchup against Carson Fulmer this evening, a pitcher who has been a disaster for the White Sox of late. He has just a 27/19 K/BB ratio on the season, and he has allowed nine runs over just 5 1/3 total innings in his last two starts. This is a great spot to buy low on the Texas power hitters, especially the LH power bats. Fulmer is allowing a 37% hard contact rate and has a low ground ball rate against lefties. Hello, Choo, Mazara, and Gallo!
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Joey Gallo Clear Value on FanDuel
This salary on FanDuel is way too low for Jose Abreu against Matt Moore. Moore is again allowing huge fly ball and hard hit numbers to righties, and his strikeouts have fallen even further this season, sitting at just 14.9% to righties. Since the start of 2017, Abreu has 41% hard hits with a .257 ISO and .408 wOBA against left-handed pitching. With the values on Smoak and Abreu, it looks like a two 1B night on FanDuel.
A Risk/Reward Mid-Range Arm
There is plenty of risk here with Snell, and he is not cash game viable for me tonight, but I like the GPP appeal. Snell will not be highly owned here, as DFS players respect the Angels offense, and Snell is coming off a poor outing against the Orioles where he gave up five runs. However, he still owns a healthy 25.7% strikeout rate and 13.5% swinging strike rate, while his SIERA sits at 3.75. There are skills here, and the Angels have been in a bit of a funk at the plate lately — largely due to some tough matchups. That continues tonight. Don’t sleep on Snell at low ownership for some GPP upside, especially on multi-pitcher sites.
Here We Are Again
Another day, another chance to play Justin Smoak at a silly low salary. He collected yet another extra base hit last night, and it just doesn’t matter what he does, his salary is not budging. Tonight he gets Brett Anderson, who looks like he is just not going to be able to strikeout major league hitters. Anderson hasn’t been anywhere near average strikeouts since 2013, and comes in at just 11.8% in three games this season. Smoak has elite plate skills against lefties, and carries a .402 wOBA against them since the start of 2017.
Start of Thursday's CHC-ATL game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves on Thursday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Braves have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of the starting pitchers like Jon Lester not being pulled from his start early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game still carries a decent amount of risk and a late postponement cannot be entirely ruled out of the equation, though he ultimately believes the contest is likelier to play than not.
As reported by: Mark Bowman via Twitter
Some chance of rain in a few spots Thursday night
There are a few spots with some chance for rain in Thursday night’s forecast. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and those with a premium subscription can catch Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET with the latest updates right up until lock.
Chris Archer has both the highest swinging strike rate (13.9%) and aEV (90.4 mph) on the board
Chris Archer continues to have issues with hard contact. Three HRs in his last start after two straight without one gives him nine allowed for the season. His 90.4 mph aEV is tied for the worst mark on the board. Lefties (.339 wOBA, 41.7 Hard% since last season) hit him harder than righties (.293 wOBA, 38.4 Hard%), but Zack Cozart (116 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Mike Trout (179 wRC+, .317 ISO), Justin Upton (117 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (210 wRC+, .362 ISO) all have a chance to do damage. That being said, Archer does have the highest swinging strike rate on the board (13.9%) and may be too cheap on DraftKings, all the way down to $6.9K now. He’s not for the risk averse however.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Zack Cozart Chad Kuhl has a .398 overall xwOBA this year and .382 wOBA against LHBs since last year
The Padres have a 26.9 K% against RHP that’s the second worst split on the board, but the actual lineup tonight drops to 23.9% since the start of last season. Chad Kuhl has league average peripherals, but significant split issues and .398 xwOBA (89.6 mph aEV) that’s second worst on the board, though he has been around a league average arm at home since last season (4.55 xFIP, .338 xwOBA). He can be rostered due to the caliber of the opposition, but he’s not a pitcher players should feel confident in. In fact, his .382 wOBA (.368 xwOBA, 39.9 Hard%) against LHBs since last season suggests a few San Diego bats may be worth their price tags below $4K tonight. Eric Hosmer (157 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Travis Jankowski (150 wRC+, .133 ISO) in the leadoff spot, Franchy Cordero (118 wRC+, .212 ISO) and Raffy Lopez (135 wRC+, .288 ISO) are all candidates to do some damage at potentially low ownership rates.
Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Travis Jankowski, Chad Kuhl, Raffy Lopez Andrew Triggs has a 24.6 K%, but has allowed the hardest contact on the board (90.4 mph aEV, 13.6% Barrels/BBE)
Andrew Triggs has a 24.6 K% and 3.99 SIERA that are two of the better marks on the board tonight, but his ground balls (47.2%) and swinging strikes (9.7%) are down this year, while he’s allowing the absolute hardest contact on the board in all three areas (90.4 mph aEV, 13.6% Barrels/BBE, 44.5% 95+ mph EV). As such, the Blue Jays have a 4.87 implied run line that’s second highest on the board in one of just two positive run environments in play tonight in Toronto. The top of this lineup has been very potent against RHP over the last calendar year: Curtis Granderson (142 wRC+, .274 ISO), Josh Donaldson (136 wRC+, .257 ISO), Justin Smoak (125 wRC+, .265 ISO) and Yangervis Solarte (120 wRC+, .213 ISO).
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Josh Donaldson, Yangervis Solarte, Andrew Triggs Four A's exceed a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year
Aaron Sanchez has retained a 54.5 GB% with a 9.8 SwStr% that suggests improvement could be in his future, but he currently has just a 15.5 K% with estimators a run above a 4.08 ERA and a .376 xwOBA due to an 89.9 mph aEV. Since last season, his ground ball rate has been consistent at 51.3% against batters from either side, though both his xwOBA and actual wOBA have both been above .335 against batters from either side. Oakland has a 4.63 implied run line that’s top five on the board. Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, and Matt Olson all exceed a 130 wRC+ with a .200 ISO or better against RHP over the last calendar year. All but Lowrie even exceed a .250 ISO. This is a dangerous lineup in a decent spot.
Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Aaron Sanchez Kevin Gausman has pitched well on the surface, but the Red Sox have the top run line (5.3) on the board
The Boston Red Sox have a 5.3 implied run line nearly a half run above any other team. Kevin Gausman has allowed two runs or less in five straight starts, pitching into the eighth inning in three of his last four, but Boston is the most positive run environment on the board and he brings a 19.8 K% in against a confirmed lineup with a 20.8 K% against RHP since last season. It’s difficult to dicepher what Gausman is doing other than an 86.6 LOB%, but he still has a .327 xwOBA that’s near league average, but fifth best on tonight’s board despite an 89.5 mph aEV and 40.8% 95+ mph EV. Considering the park and tendency towards hard contact, the top half of the Boston lineup looks to be the popular (premium players can find Projected Ownership on it’s own page and in LineupHQ) and correct play, led by J.D. Martinez (152 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mookie Betts (107 wRC+, .212 ISO) as elite plays plus Andrew Benintendi (114 wRC+, .185 ISO), Hanley Ramirez (98 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (92 wRC+, .163 ISO) as support.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Kevin Gausman, Hanley Ramirez, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts