DFS Alerts
Dominant Southpaw
It will be interesting to see Corbin’s ownership after a stretch of “meh” games at a high price tag. Corbin is the highest priced pitcher and it seems likely that most will opt for the slightly cheaper Carrasco in a better matchup against the poor Tigers offense. Corbin (2.12 ERA, 2.63 SIERA) has been dominant this year and offers the highest strikeout upside of the slate with his 34.5% strikeout rate. The Brewers have done a good job at limiting strikeouts versus left handed pitching but have the second worst wRC+ (71) versus southpaws on the season. Despite the Brewers implied run total already shooting up (opened 3.6, currently 4) Corbin is one of the strongest GPP plays on the board at SP. I should note that Corbin becomes less appealing from a GPP/ownership perspective if there are weather issues for Carrasco in Detroit as he would jump into the best play at the position.
Bet On Talent
McCullers is basically the prototype of a pitcher that I’ll always chase to at least some extent in GPPs despite the matchup. He’s a guy with strong strikeout stuff (27.4 K%, 13.5 SwStr%) and has strong run prevention metrics (3.17 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 3.46 SIERA). An interesting note about McCullers is that he’s been reverse splits so far throughout his career (.323 wOBA vs RHB, .282 wOBA vs LHP) – it’s likely that the gap will become smaller as we get a bigger sample but it’s something to consider tonight as the Angels typically run out a very right handed dominant lineup. Needless to say this is far from an ideal matchup for McCullers but he has enough talent to be worthy of a few GPP dart throws at what’s expected to be single digit ownership on a smaller eight game slate.
Cheap Leadoff Hitter
If Winker bats leadoff tonight, I think he’s a solid value play for cash games and smaller field tournaments. This is a terrible ballpark for left-handed power hitters, but it’s a good ballpark for doubles. We’re not playing Winker for home run upside, and that benefits us in a spot like this. Stratton has a low strikeout rate against lefties, and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact with a 26.8% hard to soft contact ratio against lefties this season. Winker has picked up where he left off last season, he has a very low strikeout rate and an above average line drive rate. I like his chances for multiple hits in this game tonight, but I want him to be in that leadoff spot.
Fly That Parrot
Back in my Fantasy Insiders days it was an ongoing joke that Edwin Encarnacion was a lock to hit a HR any time he squared off against a fly ball righty. Well, he gets a fly ball righty who has homer issues in Mike Fiers on Monday night. Going back to 2012, E5’s power numbers against right handed pitching has been insane (his ISO vs RHP from 2012-2018: .246, .274, .291, .294, .264, .262, .208). Cleveland hitters will be popular to target on this slate but I absolutely love rounding out my Cleveland stack with the likely less owned Encarnacion over Alonso – especially on DraftKings where you’re only able to play one.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez It's Not A Crazy Idea
I’m a big fan of Tyler Anderson tonight, and he will be one of the main pitchers I use on this slate. That said, I think his toughest matchup will be Christian Villanueva, and I don’t mind even playing them on the same team together, as Villaneuva is crushing left-handed pitching this season. He has a .658 ISO with a .574 wOBA and a 52% hard hit rate in 41 PAs against southpaws. Villaneuva won’t be able to keep this up, but I do think he’s good against lefties, and at his price tag, I think he’s very much in play. I don’t love a lot of third basemen tonight, and that’s another reason I don’t mind taking him against my pitcher on the same team.
No Cano, No Problem
It seems to be only a matter of time before Jake Odorizzi gets blown up. Odorizzi gets himself in danger frequently due to a high walk rate (11.2%). Combine a high walk rate with problems keeping the ball in the yard (1.91 HR/9 this year, 1.32 career) and you have a recipe for some truly disastrous starts. Odorizzi’s gap between his 3.83 ERA and more advanced run prevention metrics is massive (5.53 FIP, 5.18 xFIP, 4.96 SIERA) and it would be unsurprising to see him lit up by a Cano-less Mariners lineup on Monday night.
Other tagged players: Jean Segura, Kyle Seager, Mike Zunino, Dee Strange-Gordon Best Value From A Top Offense
Mike Fiers has certainly improved against right-handed hitters this season, but even with the small sample size, I’m not buying it. He continues to struggle with left-handed hitters, so the Indians are a top offense on tonight’s slate. Yonder Alonso is one of my favorite hitters on the slate. He has a 39.1% hard hit rate against righties this season, and he’s a very neutral groundball/fly ball guy against a pitcher that is the same way. Alonso is one of the cheaper options from this offense, but that doesn’t mean he lacks upside. He has a .231 ISO with a .486 CXwOBA against righties this season.
Boom Or Bust Value Pitcher
If you’re playing in a large field tournament and you want to stack the bats, I think Ryan Yarbrough is very interesting. He threw 79 pitches in his last start, and if he’s pitching well, I could see him reaching 85-95 pitches tonight. He got hit pretty well by Atlanta last time out, but with the strikeout upside, he was still able to manage an okay outing for his price tag. When digging into his stats, I was really impressed by his numbers against righties. He has a .227 wOBA with a .062 ISO and a 4.7% hard to soft contact ratio against righties. With this lineup projected to throw out six righties, it’s certainly a boost for Yarbrough. The projected starters have a .159 ISO with a .311 wOBA and a 25.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.
League Average
I am not sure how “sneaky” of a stack a team with the second highest implied run total (5) can really be on an eight game slate but the Red Sox may see relatively low ownership as they square off against Sean Manaea. I touched on Manaea before his last outing as a possible regression candidate – he’s a very solid pitcher (3.68 SIERA) but has ran into a little luck on his way to a 2.11 ERA through eight starts. Manaea is the owner of a .186 BABIP, a 84.3 LOB% and owns one of the widest gaps between wOBA (.220) and xWOBA (.320). He has been almost exactly league average among starters in terms of strikeout rate (21.7% vs 21.9%) and almost exactly league average in generating soft contact (17.9% vs 18.1%). Long story short – despite an elite ERA, Manaea more closely resembles a league average pitcher, which is a prototype a Boston offense can jump all over.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Hanley Ramirez Nice Cheap Pitching Option
I like both pitchers in this game, but with the discount, I’m leaning more towards Tyler Anderson. Anderson has a .365 wOBA at home this season, along with a .306 wOBA on the road. While it’s a small sample size, I wanted to point it out because if you’re just looking at wOBA, then Anderson might seem a little scary. He has a 24% soft contact rate against righties and a 23.2% soft contact rate against lefties this season. His poor hit rate is well above average, and he has a 13.6% swinging strike rate with a 24.8% strikeout rate. This projected starting lineup has a .212 wOBA with a 23.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. I worry about Villanueva, but one hitter isn’t going to scare me off a pitcher.
Affordable Power On Top Offense
The state of the slate leads me to as many Indians bats as possible in my core lineup. While I’ll try to grab a few shares of Edwin Encarnacion, his first base teammate Yonder Alonso comes at too much of a discount to pass up tonight. Every batter in the top five for Cleveland has an ISO above .200 against right-handed pitching, and while Alonso has the highest strikeout rate of that group, it is not outlandish at 22.4% against righties. In 38 games against right-handed pitching, Alonso’s 9 HR tie him with Encarnacion, and trail only the expensive bats of Lindor and Ramirez. He is likely to have plenty of RBI opportunities with the high on base lineup ahead of him.
Skills Growth In The Early Going
Junior Guerra has shown some strikeout ability, but everything else in his game is a red flag. He has awful control with no ability to control batted balls. David Peralta has the highest contact rate of any of the top hitters for Arizona. Since the start of 2017, he has a 16.7% K rate and .364 wOBA against right-handed pitching. In the early going this season, he has an extreme 53% hard hit rate against righties leading to a .270 ISO. He comes at a nice discount compared to teammates Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, and there is just as much to like with Peralta.
All Aboard The Top Of This Lineup
The Indians are far and away the top offense tonight against the low strikeouts and hard hit fly balls of Mike Fiers. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are the top plays, but Brantley bats right in between them with strong skills and comes at a meaningful savings. Brantley doesn’t have the same power/speed combo as his buddies, but he’s not far behind. Since the beginning of 2017, Brantley has a .205 ISO and .380 wOBA against righties, and in a small sample size 82 PA this season, he has been elite with an 89% contact rate, 44% hard hits and a .307 ISO.
Cheaper Pitcher in Strong Matchup
There are a few decent cheaper pitchers to use on DK/FDRFT tonight, but I am siding with the Rockies Tyler Anderson going into San Diego. He is cheaper than his opponent, Joey Lucchesi, and has a much better matchup for strikeouts. Anderson had two sketchy starts early in the season that have his walk rate at an unusually high 10.6%, but everything else we’ve seen from him implies he is the same guy as his typical 7% walk range for his career. He has shown a nice increase in strikeouts every season, from 20.7% in 2016 to 22.4% last year and currently at 24.8% along with a career high 13.6% swinging strikes. Anderson is not without risk, but this salary looks more than fair for the matchup in San Diego against the high strikeout Padres.
The Monday Ace
I have concerns about Patrick Corbin’s velocity and Lance McCullers matchup and consistency, leaving Carrasco as my ace of choice tonight. Prior to his last start, he was looking more like a pitch-to-contact, and limit hard hits type of pitcher. He then rebounded with a 14-K performance five days ago. While we don’t know which version of Carrasco we’ll see tonight, either one should be able to shut down this Detroit lineup. This is Carrasco’s 6th straight season with a walk rate under 6% and 6th out of seven with a hard hit rate under 30%. His four straight years of a strikeout rate above 25% show that even if he’s not going out of his way for strikeouts, he’s still going to get some, and the upside remains elite. Assuming the weather holds, he’s my cash game choice on all sites as well as my top tournament option.