DFS Alerts

Ryan Braun scratched Monday; Jonathan Villar replaces

Braun has been scratched from the Milwaukee Brewers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jonathan Villar, who will play second base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which will bump Domingo Santana all the way up to,second, Hernan Perez to fifth (now manning left field defensively), and Manny Pina to sixth, respectively, while Jesus Aguilar slides down one spot to third. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Brewers’ order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Patrick Corbin on the road this evening.

Start of Monday's SEA-MIN game will be delayed due to rain

The start of the matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins on Monday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Twins have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this game weren’t realistic options for any daily fantasy formats, the late start won’t do much to add to their appeal, but the delay is obviously a potentially positive sign for hitters if the teams opt to play through any potentially additional precipitation later in the evening. However, as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game certainly possesses plenty of risks and a postponement cannot be entirely ruled out.

Two games at risk in Monday's evening forecast

Kevin’s evening forecast has two games at risk tonight. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers should be sure to join him on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for the most up to date information.

Tyler Anderson has increased his ground ball rate and has the third highest SwStr rate (13.6%) on the board

One of the more interesting pitching matchups on the board takes place in San Diego tonight. Joey Lucchesi has the following line against the Rockies this year: 11 IP – 5 H – 0 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 15 K – 40 BF). It’s the third time he’ll be facing them. He’s faced no other team twice. His deceptive delivery could suffer in effect as batters get more repetitions against him and he has not completed six innings in four starts, but he does have a 26.7 K% and faces a terrible road team (83 wRC+) with a 25.7 K% vs LHP. The cost is above $8K on either site though. Tyler Anderson has a 13.6 SwStr% (third best today) with a .311 xwOBA. His ground ball rate sits at 31.4% for the season, but has been above 47% in three straight starts. This will be the third time he faces the Padres (26.1 K% vs LHP) with quality results each of the first two times (12 IP – 2 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 12 K – 48 BF). At just $7.5K or less on either site, Anderson has to be considered the top value on the board or close to it. Premium subscribers will want to check out Projected Ownership available both in LineupHQ and on it’s own page in the premium section to see if there’s an additional advantage there with Anderson, Lucchesi or any of tonight’s top arms.

Francisco Lindor has a 431 wRC+ (72.2 Hard%) in 23 PAs over the last seven days

The Cleveland Indians are the only team above five implied runs tonight (5.19) against Mike Fiers, who’s 9.9% Barrels/BBE is third worst on the board with a .351 xwOBA that’s just a point below Jake Odorizzi for fourth worst. In fact, Fiers has a wOBA and xwOBA around that mark against batters from either side since last season. With Jason Kipnis dropping to sixth, each of the first five batters in the lineup have at least a 120 wRC+ and a .200+ ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Yonder Alonso (123 wRC+, .206 ISO) is the lowest priced at $3.5K or less on either site and has a 224 wRC+ over the last seven days. Francisco Lindor (120 wRC+, .247 ISO) is the hottest batter in the league with a 431 wRC+ and 72.2 Hard% over his last 23 PAs.

Carlos Carrasco faces a Detroit lineup minus it's top two bats

While the Detroit Tigers have a team 20.7 K% against RHP this year that’s one of the lower marks in the league, this particular lineup tonight is absent both Jeimer Candelario and Nick Castellanos. With Pete Kozma batting second, PlateIQ tells us that this confirmed lineup has just a .130 ISO and 25.8 K% vs RHP since last season with Kozma, Jacoby Jones and Niko Goodrum exceeding a 30% strikeout rate against RHP. Carrasco exceeded seven strikeouts for the first time this season last time out, but is now probably the top pitcher on the board in this expected cakewalk.

Seattle Mariners have one of the best bullpens in the league behind Wade LeBlanc

The Tampa Bay/Kansas City matchup will likely feature a lot of bullpen action. Both teams have high implied run lines with pitchers averaging less than five innings per start in their career. The Kansas City bullpen is absolutely atrocious. Worst in the majors by the most significant metrics. The Tampa Bay bullpen, on the other hand, may have a 4.93 ERA (fourth highest), but are league average by most underlying metrics. Austin Pruitt and Matt Andriese have both been multi-inning arms with each throwing three or more innings over the weekend, questioning their availability here. The Rays could come out firing their single inning, top arms at KC after Yarbrough. Conversely, Carlos Carrasco and Rick Porcello are the only two pitchers on the board averaging more than six innings per outing the last two calendar years, making bullpens less a factor. Should the Seattle offense get to Jake Odorizzi, the Minnesota bullpen combines a hard hit rate above 36% with an ERA and FIP above 4.5 as well. The San Francisco bullpen is similarly poor by the same metrics with just an 11.2 K-BB%, but may not be worth attacking in a difficult park. The Seattle bullpen has a 19.0 K-BB% (third best in baseball) with a 3.27 SIERA that’s fifth best in baseball, which players should keep in mind considering Wade LeBlanc’s expected limitations tonight.

Eric Skoglund has a .382 xwOBA and faces an offense that excels against his most frequent pitch thrown

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 4.67 implied run line that’s on the top half of the board, but a bit below the top overall offenses tonight. Eric Skoglund has a board high .382 xwOBA and 50.5% 95+ mph EV this season. Further problematic for him in this matchup is that the majority of his pitches are fastballs (70% to LHBs, 55% to RHBs this season) and he’s facing a lineup that has made significant improvements against that pitch this season (team 20.2 wFB is fifth in MLB). PlateIQ, which now has PlateIQ Ratings available to premium subscribers both on that page and in LineupHQ, suggests some strong individual ratings in this matchup. Wilson Ramos has a .412 wOBA against the pitch since 2016 and a 125 wRC+ (.191 ISO) against left-handed pitchers over the last calendar year. C.J. Cron (136 wRC+, .268 ISO) and Daniel Robertson (123 wRC+, .206 ISO) come in strong against southpaws. Cron exceeds a .400 Contact xwOBA against all fastballs and sinkers since 2016 according to PlateIQ as well. Should Skoglund get knocked out of this game early (lowest average innings pitched on the board since his debut), Tampa Bay additionally has the luxury of facing one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The KC bullpen is last in the majors in fWAR (-0.8), ERA, FIP (above five) and K-BB (5.7%) by a wide margin. Players will also need to stay up to date with Kevin’s forecast, which suggests potential issues with this game, but strong hitting conditions if rain is not an issue.

Boston has the second highest implied run line on the board (4.97) vs Manaea, who no-hit them in last meeting

The last time Sean Manaea faced the Boston Red Sox, a no-hitter was the result. Yet, the Red Sox still have a 4.97 implied run line that’s second best on the board tonight for the rematch at Fenway, a much more positive run environment. Manaea proceeded to throw seven strong innings at Houston immediately following that outing, but has allowed eight runs in 11.2 innings with just eight strikeouts over his last two starts. At $9.6K on DraftKings, he would seem over-priced here with an ERA well below estimators due to a .186 BABIP and 84.3 LOB%. That does not make him a bad pitcher and still perhaps not one to go over-board against, but the primary lefty-mashers are certainly in play here. J.D. Martinez (212 wRC+, .463 xwOBA, .414 ISO, 54.4 Hard% vs LHP last calendar year) seems a value at any cost against southpaws. Mookie Betts (173 wRC+, .414 xwOBA, .298 ISO) joins him above 20% Barrels/BBE overall this season. Xander Bogaerts (110 wRC+, .133 ISO) is hitting more balls in the air this season, resulting in 15.4% Barrels/BBE overall. Hanley Ramirez (92 wRC+, .215 ISO) is the only other RHB batter in the lineup above a .140 ISO against lefties since last season. Right-handed hitters have a .348 xwOBA and 41.1 GB% against Manaea since last season.

Mike Zunino has a 27.3% Barrels/BBE mark this season

It’s an under-statement to suggest a significant drop off in production from Robinson Cano to Gordon Beckham, but it might not be enough for Jake Odorizzi, a fly ball pitcher with a substantial reverse split (RHBs .342 xwOBA since 2017, LHBs .322). Also consider that Minnesota is a positive run environment, which plays friendly towards right-handed power and the Mariners could look even better than their current 4.67 implied run line. Odorizzi has just a 26 GB% this year with a 12.5% Barrels/BBE that’s the only mark above 10% on the board. The three through seven hitters all have an ISO of .200 or better with a wRC+ above 105 vs RHP over the last calendar year. Mike Zunino (146 wRC+, .306 ISO) is actually the high man on both counts. His 27.3% Barrels/BBE overall this season is one of the best marks in baseball. At moderate costs across the board, a Seattle middle of the order stack or individual bats could pay off tonight, though players will want to double check a weather forecast that suggest potential rain issues.

Open Roof in Arizona

When I first saw the total for tonight’s Diamondbacks’ game, I immediately looked to see if the roof was going to be open. The total felt a bit high and as expected, the roof will be open tonight. Junior Guerra can be very hit or miss at times, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. David Peralta is affordable and should be batting leadoff tonight at home. On the season, he owns a .398 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Stacking in Detroit

One of the top stacks on the board tonight is playing in Detroit and no, I’m not talking about the Tigers. The Indians are playing on the road, which guarantees ninth-inning at-bats. They draw an exploitable matchup against Mike Fiers, who is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. The Indians mash right-handed pitching as a whole and Francisco Lindor offers a nice combination of both speed and power.

Good Matchup + Good Ballpark = Good Play

The Rockies/Padres game to look to when it comes to picking an SP2. Anderson got off to a shaky start this season, but has bounced back nicely. Through eight starts overall, he has a 4.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. His control was an issue early on, but he seems to have fixed that in his last few starts. It’s not like the Padres are going to draw a bunch of walks anyway. You can’t ask for a better matchup or for a better ballpark and Anderson is dirt cheap across the industry — $6,900 on FanDuel and $7,500 on DraftKings.

Road Warrior

Let’s quickly take a look at Carlos Carrasco’s home/road splits over the last two seasons:

Home: 3.72 FIP with a strikeout rate of 26%.
Road: 2.63 FIP with a strikeout rate of 29%.

There have been matchups here and there to play Carrasco at home, but for the most part I target him exclusively on the road. He draws an excellent matchup in Detroit tonight, as he squares off against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense. Carrasco has held this current Tigers’ roster to a .252 wOBA with 43 strikeouts in 173 plate appearances.

Lance McCullers has a 69.7 GB%, but fewer strikeouts against right-handed batters

Eight of 16 pitchers on the board tonight have a 10.9 SwStr% or better with four at $10K or higher on DraftKings, $9K or above on FanDuel. All of these pitchers come with some concern. Patrick Corbin is the highest priced pitcher on the board. His velocity has plummeted in his last two starts with strikeouts and swinging strike rate down significantly over his last three. He faced the Dodgers in back to back starts, where they basically did not swing at his slider, resulting in four walks in the most recent. Tonight, the Brewers have just a 71 wRC+ against LHP, so there is some upside, but if the velocity does not tick back up and they don’t swing at the slider either, there could be problems. Carlos Carrasco is second most expensive on either board and struck out 14 of those Brewers in his last start, but no more than seven in any other start this year. He is facing the Tigers tonight, which may sound like a higher upside matchup than it really is (20.7 K% vs RHP). He should make up for that by getting deep into this game though. Lance McCullers has a bit of a reverse split due to heavy curveball usage. Against RHBs, he throws more sinkers, generating a near 70% groundn ball rate, but fewer swings and misses. He’ll face a predominantly right-handed lineup against the Angels tonight. The hope might be that he too, makes up for lower strikeout upside by getting deeper into the game. Rick Porcello is coming off his worst outing of the season, but it was against the Yankees. He’d gone at least six innings with six or more Ks in every start since his first this season leading into that outing. He’s generating more ground balls, while keeping his strikeout rate steady with an increase in sinker usage that’s kept the ball in the yard this year (two HRs). The downside is that he faces a powerful Oakland lineup (24.3 Hard-Soft%) in the most difficult run environment in play tonight, though the A’s also have a 24 K% against RHP.