DFS Alerts
Ace of Aces
We have three studs at the top tonight, and all three have tremendous upside. While Justin Verlander is very close with his matchup, I have to side with Max Scherzer as the top pitcher in all formats tonight. Mad Max is just at another level this season with a silly 80 strikeouts in 52 innings and a 1.74 ERA. His strikeout rate against right-handed batters is an absurd 52%. His “weakness” is strikeouts against lefties, but even that number is at 33% this season, higher than Chris Sale’s overall K rate. The strikeouts give him a tremendous floor and a limitless ceiling.
Can Luke Weaver bounce back at an afforable price?
The Padres are tied for the 4th highest SO/AB on todays slate and the 3rd worst wOBA in .295 that will offer some upside for a struggling Luke Weaver. The Cardinals also opened up at -145 favorites on the road in San Diego, a good sign for Weaver backers. Weaver has not hit value in 4 games but is projected for a Rotogrinders 4th highest DK points on the slate. He also has a K prediction 7.3, 4th highest on the slate as well. His recent struggles would suggest fading in cash, but at $7900 he definitely has the upside in GPPs to take a flier.
Let's Try This Again
The Rockies have disappointed pretty much all week at home, but it’s only a matter of time before they break out at Coors. They draw a fine matchup against a mediocre young pitcher in Brandon Woodruff tonight, and it’s hard to see Woodruff having success in this park. Also, this is basically a bullpen game for the Brewers, as Woodruff has been pitching out of the bullpen and has made just one abbreviated start this year. You can certainly opt for a GPP fade due to ownership tonight, but my money is on the Rockies finally busting out at Coors.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Carlos Gonzalez
Just Call Him Matt Kardashian
You might ask why on earth I used this title for the alert, but it’s because Matt Harvey is nothing but drama, my friends. After being exiled from New York, he FINALLY admits that he may have let the Mets down. You think? Good effort, Matt. Personal feelings aside, Matt Kardashian the pitcher has been nothing short of horrendous for about two seasons now. His ground ball rate against LHBs is a laughable 31% this season, and they have posted a wOBA of .428. He is allowing hard contact over 40% of the time to hitters from both sides of the plate. The left-handed bats get priority, so I love Bellinger and Grandal here, but other RHBs in the heart of the order are logical inclusions in a GPP stack of the Dodgers.
Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Chris Taylor Stacking Against the Poor Splits
Cole Hamels has been better to start 2018, but I’m still not high on him as we move forward. The walks are still a touch too high, and his batted ball profile isn’t any better than it was a year ago. He is allowing hard contact a whopping 49.5% of the time against right-handed batters, and his ground ball rate is down. That spells trouble in a matchup against a RH-dominant Astros lineup that can hit for power. Coors Field will deservedly get the attention, but the Astros are a high-end stack that just might get overlooked a bit this evening.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa A Viable Low-Cost Arm
The top arms will get the attention tonight, but there are some viable options that you might be able to get on the cheap. Suarez has a solid profile through three starts this year, with a SIERA and xFIP right around 3.00, an above average ground ball rate, a 28% strikeout rate, and a 3% walk rate. It’s a small sample size, but those are elite numbers. I don’t mind tonight’s matchup against a Pirates offense that is nothing special, even though they don’t strike out a ton as a team. If you are looking to fit big bats from Coors into your lineups, Suarez is a perfectly logical selection on the mound.
Massive Upside as a Top Pitching Selection
You likely can’t go wrong with the top three pitchers on the board tonight, as Verlander, Sale, and Scherzer all have matchups which provide them with access to their massive respective ceilings. However, Verlander just might be my favorite arm for tournament play. He tends to garner a little less ownership than the other two on slates that are loaded with arms, but Verlander gets a matchup against a free-swinging Texas team that he could very well dominate. His performance got overshadowed by the near no-hitter from Bartolo Colon the first time he faced the Rangers this year, but Verlander pitched eight innings in that game while allowing just one hit and racking up 11 strikeouts. His 35% strikeout rate and 14.4% swinging strike rate this year are both career highs, and it has been something else to watch his second career renaissance. Fire him up with confidence tonight.
Miles Mikolas doesn't miss many bats, but has gone seven innings in four straight and has a great machup in San Diego
Miles Mikolas has a very ordinary 19.3 K% with a below average 8.6 SwStr%. He has only struck out more than five batters twice this year with a high of seven. He does have a number of factors in his favor though. He pitches in a negative run environment in San Diego against a confirmed lineup with a combined .326 wOBA, .160 ISO and 25.1 K% vs RHP since the start of last season via PlateIQ (now with conditional formatting for premium subscribers). He’s also gone seven innings in four straight starts. Only Zack Greinke and Tanner Roark have averaged more than six innings per start over the last two calendar years among today’s pitchers. Comfortable workload in combination with a great matchup can compensate for the normal lack of upside in this case. The Padres could have one value play on their side though too. Raffy Lopez has a 130 wRC+ and .291 ISO with a 47.1 Hard% vs RHP in a small sample over the last calendar year. He costs around $2.5K on either site behind the plate tonight.
Other tagged players: Raffy Lopez
One game with strong delay potential in Thursday's forecast
There is one game with strong delay potential according to Kevin’s forecast for Thursday night. Players can read the entire report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can watch and hear Kevin give updates on conditions and risk right up until lock on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
A Steal At This Salary
David Dahl finds himself in the cleanup spot for the top offense of the night against a pitcher that is unable to get left-handed batters out. Dahl is fully priced on DK/FDRFT, but on FanDuel for just $3,000 he is an easy fit in all formats.
Right-handed batters have a .360 wOBA at Coors against German Marquez in his career
A disappointing Milwaukee offense (86 wRC+, 24.5 K% vs RHP) gets a chance to get healthy at Coors and Vegas expects them to with a 5.24 implied run line against German Marquez, who has allowed 13 runs in 11 innings at home this season and that includes three shutout innings against the Padres. Interestingly, while his wOBA is around .340 both home and away with many other similar stats for his career, his ERA jumps about three quarters of a run at home due to an 18.7 HR/FB (11.7 on the road). He has a reverse split too, which doesn’t exactly hurt the Brewers. Right-handed batters have a career .360 wOBA (39.2 Hard%, 38.9 GB%) against him at Coors, while lefties have a .318 wOBA (26 Hard%, 53.7 GB%). Considering Travis Shaw (135 wRC+, .255 ISO) and Christian Yelich (130 wRC+, .175 ISO) are the two strongest Brewers against RHP over the last calendar year, most of the bats are in play here. Jesus Aguilar (111 wRC+, .223 ISO) has been the strongest bat against same-handed pitching.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, German Marquez Rockies have a board high 6.26 implied run line, but only one competent RHB against RHP
The Colorado Rockies have a 6.26 implied run line, which no other team is within three quarters of a run tonight. This, despite their 67 wRC+ and 5.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP this season. Jhoulys Chacin has been far from good for the Brewers with a strikeout rate dropping to 13.5%, but he still manages contact fairly well against same-handed batters (.252 wOBA this season, .276 xwOBA, 27.2 Hard%, 50.2 GB% since last season). It’s really not even hard to wipe right-handed Rockies off the board tonight. They’re high priced and only Nolan Arenado (111 wRC+, .244 ISO) has been even remotely competent over the last calendar year. Even with him, players have to factor in a number of high quality plays at the position tonight (Moustakas, Donaldson). With Cargo out, Charlie Blackmon (144 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and perhaps David Dahl (217 wRC+, .300 ISO in a small sample) are the only bats players really need some exposure to tonight. Lefties have a .352 wOBA (.360 xwOBA) against Chacin since last season.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, David Dahl, Jhoulys Chacin Chris Tillman has a .455 xwOBA and has allowed at least four runs in five of six starts
When players see the Kansas City Royals with the second highest run line on the board (5.33), above even one of the teams playing at Coors tonight, the thought might be that there’s some mistake. The mistake is that Chris Tillman is still starting major league games. He has a board worst .455 xwOBA and 5.5 SwStr%, while allowing at least four runs in all five starts against major league lineups this season (Detroit doesn’t count). Batters from either side have raked above a .390 wOBA and xwOBA with a hard hit rate above 38% since last season. Mike Moustakas (130 wRC+, .286 ISO), Lucas Duda (128 wRC+, .279 ISO), Salvador Perez (98 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Whit Merrifield (102 wRC+, .147 ISO) are the average or better hitters against RHP over the last calendar year. All have at least a 110 wRC+ and 31 Hard% over the last week too. Alcides Escobar (60 wRC+) and Cheslor Cuthbert (56 wRC+) are probably the only Royals worth excluding here.
Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield, Alcides Escobar, Cheslor Cuthbert, Chris Tillman Mike Leake (.448 xwOBA, 92.9 mph aEV) faces a potent Toronto lineup
Mike Leake has a .448 xwOBA that’s somehow just second worst on the board (Chris Tillman) with a 92.9 mph aEV (worst), 12.1% Barrels/BBE, and 53.8% 95+ mph EV (worst) combined with a 14.9 K%. Even worse, he hasn’t exceeded a 45 GB% since his first start. The Toronto lineup has just crept above five implied runs this afternoon, making them the sixth team above that mark tonight, but offering a great opportunity if Ownership projections suggest they’ll be a forgotten team. Kevin Pillar (66 wRC+, .168 ISO) is the only batter among the first seven in the order below a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. While they don’t have a lot of left-handed batters and Leake has a 50 point platoon split by xwOBA, RHBs still have .324 xwOBA and 35.2 Hard% against him since last year. Curtis Granderson, Josh Donaldson, Teoscar Hernandez and Justin Smoak are all above a 130 wRC+ and .250 ISO against RHP over the last calendar years.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar, Mike Leake Yankees have a 5.12 implied run line despite facing a reverse split lefty with the highest SwStr% on the board
Eduardo Rodriguez has the highest swinging strike rate (13.3%) and the fourth best xwOBA (.288) on the board. His reverse platoon split (RHBs .309 wOBA, .302 xwOBA) puts him in a great spot in Yankee Stadium tonight, right? Not exactly. The Yankees have a 128 wRC+ at home and an 18 HR/FB both at home and vs LHP. They’ve won nearly every game they’ve played for three weeks. Aaron Judge (127 wRC+, .216 ISO, 44.1 Hard% vs LHP over the last calendar year), Giancarlo Stanton (206 wRC+, .457 ISO, 47.8 Hard%) and Gary Sanchez (135 wRC+, .301 ISO, 38.5 Hard%) may swing and miss, but damage will likely be done when they don’t against a fly ball prone pitcher. Although, Tyler Austin (153 wRC+, .282 ISO) is the only other bat in a lineup with a 5.12 implied run line above an 85 wRC+ or .120 ISO against southpaws over the last calendar years. Perhaps consider an inexpensive Brett Gardner (61 wRC+, .073 ISO) due to the reverse split as well though. He has a 52.4 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Eduardo Rodriguez