DFS Alerts
Mike Foltynewicz won't have to worry about issues with LHBs in Miami
Mike Foltynewicz has a $9.5K price tag on DraftKings that’s more in line with the matchup (Marlins 65 wRC+, 17.6 K-BB% vs RHP) and strikeout rate (26.9%) than his 9.8 SwStr%. He looks better than usual in this spot too, especially for just $7.5K on FanDuel, because he has a substantial platoon split (nearly 40 points by wOBA since last season), but the Marlins only have Justin Bour (159 wRC+, .295 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) to threat him with in the most negative run environment on the board (though the roof may be open tonight). Right-handed batters have just a .312 wOBA and 26.1 Hard% with a 22.6 K% against Folty since last season. He’ll face six of them tonight. Play Bour, but also keep Folty on the board despite lack of correlation between his strikeout and swinging strike rates. The Marlins are a favorable matchup for anyone, but especially him.
Other tagged players: Justin Bour
Betts (.319 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Martinez (.421 ISO) lead stars and scrubs lineup against Sabathia
C.C. Sabathia is a weak contact generating lefty (18.0 K%, .266 xwOBA, 84.2 mph aEV) facing a stars and scrubs Boston lineup that has struggled against LHP this season overall (73 wRC+, 17.2 K-BB%, 9.8 HR/FB) despite the production of their two mega star bats. The lack of upside does make Sabathia a difficult roster in a dangerous spot. Seven strikeouts his last time out was the first time he’s been above four this year. Dominant against lefties (.265 xwOBA), right-handed batters have put up nearly league average production against him since last season (.315 xwOBA). As usual, the high priced Mookie Betts (147 wRC+, .319 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (217 wRC+, .421 ISO) are the only two in the lineup who can combine a wRC+ above 90 with an ISO above .200 against LHP over the last calendar year. Xander Bogaerts (104 wRC+, .132 ISO) and Hanley Ramirez (83 wRC+, .197 ISO) are otherwise closest. Bogaerts has increased his fly ball rate more than five percentage points this year. Boston bats are extremely expensive though, against a pitcher who does not allow a lot of hard contact. The strength of the Yankee bullpen needs to be taken into consideration here as well.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, CC Sabathia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez Ian Kennedy brings a 2.92 ERA, but a .364 xwOBA and 12.2% Barrels/BBE to Baltimore
Ian Kennedy has allowed more than two runs just twice and failed to go six innings in just three of his seven starts this year, but none the less, the Baltimore Orioles have a top five implied run line tonight (5.17) against a fly ball pitcher prone to long ball issues in a park that favors power. Kennedy’s 7.9 SwStr%, 90 mph aEV, 12.2% Barrels/BBE, .364 xwOBA and 4.10 SIERA may paint a better picture than his 2.92 ERA. While no bat in the Baltimore lineup is above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year (Manny Machado 119 and Chance Sisco 118 come closest), only Jace Peterson is below a .165 ISO with Machado, Sisco, Adam Jones, Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez all between a .198 and .214 ISO. Kennedy has allowed a .327 wOBA (.353 xwOBA), 37.7 Hard% and 40.4 GB% to RHBs since last season. Against lefties, it gets even worse: .340 wOBA, .379 xwOBA, 45.4 Hard%, 30.3 GB%. There’s likely to be a home run or two. Peterson (77 wRC+, .095 ISO) and maybe Mark Trumbo (77 wRC+, .166 ISO) would seem the least likely candidates. All others would appear somewhere between a decent and significant threat.
Other tagged players: Chance Sisco, Jace Peterson, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, Ian Kennedy, Adam Jones, Pedro Alvarez Caleb Smith has struck out 26 of his last 64 batters, has a top five mark in SwStr% and xwOBA tonight
Caleb Smith has struck out 26 of his last 64 batters, while allowing just two runs over 18.2 innings, reaching 98 pitches for just the second time this season last time out. Both his 12.4 SwStr% and .300 xwOBA are top five marks on tonight’s board, which players can get for a cost around $7.5K on either site. It’s not a gift, even in the most negative run environment on the board in Miami though, because the Braves do have a 121 wRC+, 17.6 K% and 14.4 HR/FB vs LHP. That said, they do have just a 3.8 implied run line, so he’s certainly an option. Right-handed batters have a .333 xwOBA (36.3 Hard%) against him in his career though, while Ozzie Albies (193 wRC+, .304 ISO) and Kurt Suzuki (204 wRC+, .378 ISO) have both smoked southpaws in smallish samples over the last calendar year. The latter costs $3.5K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Kurt Suzuki There are a great number of strong, but flawed pitching options on Thursday night
Eduardo Rodriguez (13.3%) has the highest swinging strike rate on the nine game slate tonight, but is facing the Yankees, the last of five teams with an implied run line above five runs (5.13). Zack Greinke (12.6%), Caleb smith (12.4%), J.A. Happ (11.8%) and Garrett Richards are the other four elevated swinging strike rates tonight. Only Richards (7.1%) is below a 9.7% Barrels/BBE (Happ). Both Richards and Happ have a 90 mph aEV higher than Greinke and Smith though. All four are in difficult matchups against the Nationals, Braves, Mariners and Twins, though none of those teams has an implied run line above four. In addition, Jose Berrios (83.5 mph aEV, 19.8% 95+ mph EV) and C.C. Sabathia (84.2 mph aEV) have excelled at contact management. The former faces a tough, but predominantly right-handed Angels’ offense and has an above average strikeout rate (23.3%), while the latter has an 18.0 K% and faces a dangerous, but under-performing Boston offense (73 wRC+, 17.2 K-BB% vs LHP) at home. The Angels and Red Sox have implied run lines between four and four and a half. Miles Mikolas (19.3 K%, 8.6 SwStr%) has the highest upside matchup in San Diego (84 wRC+, 27.5 K% vs RHP). Mike Foltynewicz (26.9 K%, 8.4 SwStr%) may have the top overall park adjusted matchup in Miami (Marlins 67 wRC+, 17.6 K-BB% vs RHP). The point is, there are a number of pitchers bunched up near the top of the board with nobody in double digits on FanDuel or above $11K on DraftKings, all of which can have arguments made for or against them (Walker Buehler and Tanner Roark are on this slate too). There doesn’t seem to be a single dynamic set choice, which probably means there’s nobody players have to be concerned with fading either (premium subscribers can check Projected Ownership later). With five teams above five implied runs and a game at Coors, this may be a good slate to build around key bats first before arms.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Eduardo Rodriguez, Zack Greinke, Caleb Smith, J.A. Happ, Garrett Richards, Jose Berrios, CC Sabathia, Mike Foltynewicz Love This Price Point On FanDuel
Okay, a little disclaimer first: I’m a huge fan of Mike Foltynewicz. He’s one of my favorite options on this slate tonight, and I think he’s in play for cash games on both sites. This is a great ballpark upgrade for Folty and he faces a very weak Miami offense. The projected Miami starting lineup has a .117 ISO with a .286 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Realmuto and Bour are the two biggest threats in this offense, and Bour has some really good history against Folty. Still, Folty has a 3.96 xFIP with a 26.9% strikeout rate this season, and with seven projected righties, we can focus more on his stats against righties. He has a 23.9% strikeout rate, a very good 7% walk rate, and an above average 5.6% well hit rate against righties this season.
Worth The Risk For His Upside
I’m a huge fan of the Angels offense this season, as they’ve been crushing so far. With that said, they’re a very right-handed heavy offense, and Berrios has been excellent against right-handed hitters. Over his last 102 innings against righties, he has a .261 wOBA with a 25.2% strikeout rate. He also has an elite -1.9% hard to soft contact rate against right-handed hitters. Even with his struggles this season, Berrios has been elite against right-handed hitters. He has a -16% hard to soft contact ratio this season, and a very impressive 27.8% strikeout rate. It’s always risky taking a pitcher that’s been struggling, and there’s even more risk taking him against a good offense. That said, Berrios is certainly too cheap tonight, and I’m willing to take the risk.
Lock this Shortstop in for a Home Run (or Two)
I hate making home run predictions because they rarely come to fruition, but I feel pretty confident about my selection tonight. I’m taking Manny Machado at home against Ian Kennedy. Not only is this one of the best parks in baseball for right-handed power, but Kennedy is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed 38 home runs in his last 37 starts. Meanwhile, Machado has a .378 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.
Chalk Doesn't Always Taste Bad
There is often a misconception in DFS that if a player or team is going to be chalky that we automatically have to fade them in tournaments. That’s clearly not the case, we just have to use the rest of our lineup spots to create leverage on the field. I will be loading up on the chalk that is the left-handed hitters from the Rockies. They are playing at home in Coors Field and get to square off against Jhoulys Chacin, who has allowed a .360 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.
Pivot Off The Chalk
When looking at the value options on this slate, I’m looking more for the power upside guys. With Smoak being so cheap, I don’t mind looking at Chris Davis as a pivot option against Ian Kennedy. Since the start of 2017, Kennedy has a .239 ISO with a 45% hard hit rate against left-handed hitters. In that span, he has a 2.01 HR/9 against lefties, and I love attacking guys like Chris Davis against him. Davis has a .205 ISO with a .464 CXwOBA since the start of 2017 against right-handed pitching. He has the power upside, and like I said, is a great pivot off the chalk for tournaments.
Safe Outfield Value for Cash Games
It’s amazing that Chris Tillman is still a starter in the major leagues. After being one of the worst pitchers in baseball a year ago, his numbers have actually gotten worse this season. In six starts, he has an ERA over nine with a strikeout rate of only 10%. Over the last two years combined, he has allowed a massive .442 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. If Jon Jay is batting lead-off again, lock and load him in your cash game lineups.
Best Point Per Dollar Pitcher on the Board
The Angels are playing at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they are sizable favorites, and the game features a low run total. This feels like the perfect spot to load up on Garrett Richards, who owns a 3.79 xwOBA and a 30% strikeout rate this season. The Twins have a ton of left-handed hitters in their lineup, but that’s actually beneficial to Richards. Over the last two seasons combined, he has held lefties to a .274 xwOBA with a 32% strikeout rate.
One Of The Best Value Options
Mike Leake has never been a high strikeout guy, and this year it’s really catching up to him. He has a 5.22 xFIP with a 14.4% well hit rate (awful), and a 28% hard to soft contact ratio. He has a .361 wOBA with a 9.7% soft contact rate against left-handed hitters this season. With the inability to strike people out, and the inability to get soft contact, it’s a great spot to attack. Since the start of 2017, Smoak has a .256 ISO with a 39.6% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching. I love the power upside here, and without a lot of value on this slate, he’s a guy I will be overweight on tonight.
Good Night to Save with Pitching
There are a few offenses that I’d like to load up on tonight, but they aren’t exactly cheap. With no clear ace on the schedule, it could be a nice night to save cap space at pitcher. Caleb Smith is still a bit of a wildcard, but he’s pitching at home in a good ballpark. He has a massive 33% strikeout rate this season and he’s cheap across the industry. I don’t necessarily love his matchup against the red-hot Braves, but Smith’s strikeout upside puts him on my radar in all formats.
Ready to Take Over as an Ace
I’ve written him up and played Richards several times this year. Sometimes, it has worked out great. Sometimes, he has crashed and burned. That makes him a great GPP play almost every time he takes the mound, because some DFS players are scared to pull the trigger. However, he is showing some more signs of consistency, and he was electric in his last start against the Mariners. The most encouraging sign was that he only walked one batter in that start, where he tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings. The strikeouts have been up all year, as he owns a nice 30% strikeout rate. It’s all a matter of harnessing the command, and he appears poised for a breakout.
