DFS Alerts
Cubs have moved from 4.5 to 5.1 implied runs this afternoon
The Cubs have jumped from a 4.5 implied run line up to 5.12 this afternoon, now one of the highest marks on the board. They did beat up Jose Urena in on Opening Day, though line makers already knew that and he’s since thrown seven innings of one earned run ball in half of his six outings, including his last two. Wind is not expected to make impact tonight and the Chicago lineup is without Baez and Contreras. Urena does struggle against LHBs (.383 xwOBA since last season), while Kyle Schwarber (129 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Anthony Rizzo (133 wRC+, .224 ISO) and even Ian Happ (113 wRC+, .268 ISO) batting eighth can take advantage of that. Ben Zobrist (101 wRC+, .155 ISO) and Tommy La Stella (118 wRC+, .145 ISO) have been a bit above average as well, but reasons for the sudden line jump are not clear.
Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, Jose Urena, Ben Zobrist, Tommy La Stella
Lucas Giolito has struck out more than he's walked in just two starts
Lucas Giolito struck out more than he walked for just the second time this season and for the first time, the gap was greater than one. Three earned in 6.1 innings easily qualifies as his best start of the season in St Louis of all places. His velocity has ticked up a bit over his last two starts as well. It might be the start of him finally putting it together, but it could also just be one mediocre start. The Pirates have a 4.82 implied run line that’s a top five mark on the board currently. Giolito doesn’t have much of a platoon split (RHBs .335 xwOBA, LHBs .348 xwOBA since last season) and every batter in the Pittsburgh lineup has at least a 90 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Only Corey Dickerson (120 wRC+, .225 ISO) is above a .190 ISO though. In fact, none of the batters above a 101 wRC+ are above a .150 ISO, though Starling Marte (118 wRC+) could be in a good spot to steal a few if Giolito continues to have control issues. Stolen Base Threat Ratings are available to premium players and can point players towards value that may not be immediately obvious on tough slates.
As reported by: Stolen Base Threat Ratings Other tagged players: Lucas Giolito, Starling Marte The Indians lineup four above a .220 ISO vs LHP last calendar year against Wade Miley in Milwaukee
Wade Miley looked good in his first start of the season in Cincinnati and that’s not an offense bereft of right-handed power in a power friendly park. The Indians lose their DH today in Milwaukee, but are still a difficult matchup despite a 95 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Their 4.58 implied run line is just inside the top third of the board. While Miley has kept the ball on the ground against lefties (57.9% since last season), RHBs have a .370 wOBA, 33.4 Hard% and 49.1 GB%. Jose Ramirez (159 wRC+, .266 ISO), Francisco Lindor (144 wRC+, .224 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (124 wRC+, .259 ISO) and Yan Gomes (113 wRC+, .250 ISO) have all raked against LHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, Wade Miley Mike Trout costs $6K against a pretty good pitcher at Coors Field tonight
The Angels come into Colorado with a 114 wRC+ vs RHP and league high 169 wRC+ over the last week, but a 5.12 implied run line that’s just third best on the board for a couple of reasons. First, they lose the DH tonight, which means no Shohei Ohtani. Secondly, they’re facing a pretty good pitcher and attacking him with an entirely right-handed lineup. Over his career at Coors, RHBs have just a .334 wOBA against Gray, which includes a 20.8 K-BB% with a 48.5 GB% and 3.0 Hard-Soft%. That’s by no means untouchable, but it’s not really the upside players pay for at Coors either. On the other hand, HOLY CRAP MIKE TROUT (190 wRC+, .451 xwOBA, .356 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) AT COORS!! He also costs around $6K tonight. By all means, play him if he fits, but it’s going to be difficult considering the state of pitching on this slate. Most other bats in this lineup are marginal plays at their current price points. Ian Kinsler is below $4K on either site, but has just a 79 wRC+ and .314 xwOBA that’s not much better against RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Jon Gray Danny Duffy has surrendered nine home runs to right-handed batters already this season
The Orioles have just a 96 wRC+ and 25.3 K% vs LHP, but sill a 4.74 implied run line that speaks a bit to how poor Danny Duffy has pitched this season. He has the third highest xwOBA on the board (.401) and he’s not even missing bats at an above average rate (9.3 SwStr%). He’s already surrendered nine HRs to right-handed batters this season, running his total to 46 to batters just from that side of the plate since 2016. The Orioles get their top slugger against LHP over the last calander year back just in time for this affair tonight (Jonathan Schoop 176 wRC+, .318 ISO). He’s more than reasonably priced on either site ($3.5K DK/$2.6K FD). Manny Machado (113 wRC+, .238 ISO), Mark Trumbo (124 wRC+, .229 ISO), Danny Valencia (117 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Trey Mancini (118 wRC+, .159 ISO) are all power threats as well. Righties have a .344 wOBA and xwOBA with a 34.1 Hard% and 36.7 GB% against Duffy since 2017.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Danny Valencia, Trey Mancini, Danny Duffy Judge, Stanton and Sanchez are in a position to punish a left-handed pitcher who's struggled (13.3% Barrels/BBE)
Drew Pomeranz has not looked good in three starts: 7.4 SwStr%, 92.2 Z-Contact%, 13.3% Barrels/BBE. He has a small reverse platoon split since last season (LHBs .337 wOBA, RHBs .312), which makes some sense with his liberal curveball usage, but xwOBA reverses it (LHBs .315, RHBs .328). The point is, the Yankees have a 4.77 implied run line that’s top quarter of the board tonight and should be rostered as liberally as Pomeranz uses that curveball with a focus on the big guys. The firm of Judge (133 wRC+, .421 xwOBA, .223 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Stanton (195 wRC+, .452 xwOBA, .422 ISO) and Sanchez (138 wRC+, .395 xwOBA, .305 ISO) could cause punitive damages. While Tyler Austin has hammered lefties as well (165 wRC+, .468 xwOBA, .297 ISO), has struck out in four of his last 10 plate appearances without a single one of his last five batted balls hit hard over the last week. Aaron Hicks (110 wRC+, .165 ISO) is a more affordable play with some upside in this spot.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, Aaron Hicks, Drew Pomeranz Derek Holland has yet to pitch in a power friendly park this year and has still allowed five HRs in six starts
It’s a bit of a surprise to see the Phillies as low as 4.69 implied runs at home against Derek Holland, who gets torched by right-handed batters (.395 wOBA, .399 xwOBA, 41.8 Hard% since last season). He’s allowed at least three runs in five of six starts with five HRs this year, pitching entirely in extremely negative run environments on the west coast. This is the first power friendly environment he’s pitched in this year. All the Rhys Hoskins (164 wRC+, .333 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) please and some of his friends Aaron Altherr (97 wRC+, .231 ISO), Carlos Santana (115 wRC+, .183 ISO), Cesar Hernandez (122 wRC+, .132 ISO) and…gulp….Maikel Franco (66 wRC+, .200 ISO) too.
Other tagged players: Aaron Altherr, Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Derek Holland Wilson Ramos hits fastballs well, Sean Newcomb throws a lot of them
One interesting note for the Rays today is that they are facing a pitcher who throws fastballs on two-thirds of his pitches. While this lineup as a whole has improved their performance on fastballs by acquiring hitters who don’t miss them as much, PlateIQ tells us that Wilson Ramos has a 206 batted ball events against fastballs since 2016 with a .415 wOBA, .482 Contact xwOBA, .264 ISO and 48.54 Hard%, all in the green. This is something premium subscribers can easily pick up on now with the addition of conditional formatting to PlateIQ, a great time saving tool.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Sean Newcomb Jason Vargas has a .501 xwOBA (13.9% Barrels/BBE) through two starts for the Mets
Jason Vargas has been torched to the tune of a .501 xwOBA and 13.9% Barrels/BBE in two starts for the Mets. It’s not likely a power friendly park in Cincinnati will treat him much better. The Reds have a top quarter of the board 4.79 implied run line and a few guys who can really pound LHP in Eugenio Suarez (132 wRC+, .234 ISO over the last calendar year) and Adam Duvall (108 wRC+, .243 ISO), though the latter has been having a tough go of it this season. Ironically, LHBs have a .377 wOBA (.344 xwOBA) against Vargas since last season, which may make Joey Votto (138 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) the best play on the board.
Other tagged players: Jason Vargas, Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall Some high SwStr% pitchers below $10K have tough strikeout matchups, but perhaps still enough upside
While not all are options, the middle of the board has a number of pitchers with double digit SwStr rates that could provide some upside tonight. Blake Snell (13.7 SwStr%) has gone at least six innings with two runs or less in six straight starts. He’s reached nine strikeouts in half of those starts with a total of two walks over his last four. He’s one of eight pitchers below a .300 xwOBA with a 25.7% 95+ mph EV that’s best on the board. The problem, and likely reason that he’s still below $9K, is that he’s’ facing the Braves (129 wRC+, 16.6 K% vs LHP). He’s still been good enough that he’s worth a good look at that price. Dylan Bundy has been pummeled in two straight starts, but his 15.6 SwStr% is still highest on the board. The rough outings may have been matchup related against the Angels and a Rays offense that’s improved against fastballs (both of their HRs in that start were off well placed fastballs). The Royals don’t offer a ton of upside with a 16.6 K% vs RHP also, but they do have just an 83 wRC+ against righties and his cost is down to $7.8K on DraftKings in a bounce back spot. Sean Newcomb has that same Rays matchup tonight and throws his fastball two-thirds of the time. Considering how a similar lefty (J.A. Happ) struggled to put up points against them last week, this could be a bit of a trap, but for $8.5K, he may still be worth some exposure with a 29 K% and .271 xwOBA that’s second best on the board. Zach Godley is missing fewer bats this year (11.5%), but is still well above average in that department with a 55% ground ball rate. The Dodgers are tough (108 wRC+), but it’s a pitcher’s park and he’s less than $9K on either site. Luis Castillo has just a 19.6 K% with a 14.6 SwStr% that’s second best on the board. He’s high risk because he’s been hit hard enough for a .380 xwOBA, but his velocity was up last start and he’s just too cheap for a pitcher with that high a swinging strike rate to go along with a 50% ground ball rate. If looking for a punt pitcher, Jose Urena has 10 SwStr% and has gone seven innings with one run allowed three times this year. Of course, the other starts haven’t been very good at all (19 IP, 16 ERs), but that’s why he’s so cheap in the first place.
Other tagged players: Dylan Bundy, Zack Godley, Luis Castillo, Jose Urena Cheap Fillers
At the time of this writing the Rangers are tied for the highest implied run total on the slate (5.4) and have a prime matchup against Mike Fiers. Fiers is a favorite of mine to stack against as he loves to give up the long ball – he owns a career 1.37 HR/9 (2 HR/9 this year) and 13.6% HR to fly ball ratio. The best thing about the Rangers is that they are reasonably priced which makes them easy to pair with a higher end pitching options. Their price tags also make them strong one-off options.
Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Robinson Chirinos, Jurickson Profar
Don't Overlook This Hitting Environment
As good as Coors Field is for bats, Texas is another strong hitting environment, more likely to go overlooked tonight. We also have a more attackable pitcher with the Rangers against the low strikeouts of Mike Fiers. Maybe it’s just a hot streak, maybe he’s hitting a new skill level, but whatever it is, Nomar Mazara’s salary has not caught up to his production. He has five home runs in the last week, and for the season, comes in with a 42% hard hit rate and .372 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Along with teammates Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Gallo, there are affordable outfielders in Texas for all formats tonight.
No Platoon, No Problem
Jason Vargas is long removed from his glory days of being a middle of the rotation, inning eater for the Mariners. He only has two starts on the year but has already given up 15 earned runs and five HRs over 8 IP. He’s getting hit hard and not generating a lot of ground balls – a pretty poor combination when preparing to pitch at the most homer friendly stadium in the League. I like adding some lefties into my Reds stacks as people generally tend to shy away from rostering hitters without the platoon and in an ideal scenario Votto + Scooter are only getting 1-2 at bats against Vargas before the game gets to the bull pen.
Other tagged players: Scooter Gennett, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez More Bats In The Altitude
On DraftKings where we need a catcher, Chris Iannetta is an easy way to get some more Coors Field exposure at a good price. Assuming you can’t spend up to Gary Sanchez, Iannetta is the top catching option. He is once again showing good plate skills and a high on-base percentage against left-handed pitching and is even bringing some hard contact to the table this season. In 275 PA against lefties since 2016, Iannetta has an excellent .375 OBP and will gain value the higher he hits in the lineup tonight.
Price + Pedigree
Man, Tseng has been BAD this year in AAA. He’s the owner of an 8.04 ERA over 31.1 IP. He has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last five starts and has just generally been terrible. Early on scouts loved Tseng and projected him as an upper-level rotation piece (love has died down a bit the last couple of years). He’s not a guy who projects to record a ton of strikeouts but is viewed as someone who has a good knowledge of how to mix pitches and keep hitters off balance – that’s a good thing to have when facing a team for the first time. Tseng is someone I typically would not even bother risking but a matchup against the terrible Marlins (last in the league w/a 66 wRC+ versus RHP) keep him in play for me if looking to load up on high priced bats.