DFS Alerts
Ideal Situation For This Elite Hitter
Nolan Arenado is always going to be an elite play in Coors Field, and especially against a left-handed pitcher with a history of power issues against righties. Even if Heaney’s increased strikeouts continue, Arenado is too elite with his contact with just an 11.5% K rate against lefties. Add to that a 40% hard hit rate and you end up with a ridiculous .479 OBP, .530 wOBA and .408 ISO. It’s hard not to feel bad for Heaney tonight.
He's a Wimp
So here’s the thing with Rich Hill – he’s a wimp. He’s continually dealing with blisters and various other issues to the point where there always has to be some concern that he’ll get scratched from a start or pulled early. We know there is some sort of issue going on currently as he was supposed to start on Sunday but got his start pushed back to today. So while we know there is some inherent injury risk here (plus some Dave Roberts quick leash risk) there’s still no doubt that Hill has strong upside relative to his cheap price tag. When he has been active, Hill has shown great strikeout ability as he’s hovered around a 30% strikeout rate over the last couple of years. The Diamondbacks also strikeout a ton, as they have the fifth highest strikeout rate against LHP (26.6%) on the year. In addition, at the time of this writing the Diamondbacks have one of the lowest implied run totals of the slate (3.4). To recap, for $7,300 on DK + $7,500 on FD you can get a pitcher with a ~ 30 K% versus a team with a ~ 27 K% who is projected to score ~ 3 runs. Injury risk is the only thing keeping Hill from being heavily owned and the top pt/$ play on the slate.
Leading Off The Scoring
I don’t love the Angels tonight, as much as I’d like to in Coors Field, but Ian Kinsler is just too cheap for a high contact leadoff hitter on a good team in this ballpark. Jon Gray is a good enough pitcher that I’m not forcing in all the high priced Angels In The Outfield, but they should be expected to score some runs, and with Kinsler’s 14% K rate against righties, the salary is too good to pass.
Low Owned, High Upside
I mentioned the Stackstros as a top stack yesterday and they proceeded to tee off against journeyman Brett Anderson to the tune of 20 hits and 16 runs. George Springer stole the show with a 6-for-6, 41 DK pt performance as he racked up 10 total bases, 3 RBIs and 4 runs. Houston is in a similar spot Tuesday night, albeit against a much more talented pitcher. Still, there’s some reason to think the likely low-owned Astros can put up big numbers again on Tuesday night. Sean Manaea has been great this season but not nearly as good as his 1.63 ERA would indicate. This isn’t quite the Jarlin Garcia situation we had on Monday night, as Manaea is legit talented, but it’s tough to argue against the fact that Manaea has been a bit lucky this year – he has a .167 BABIP, 89.7 LOB%, and owns the fifth largest gap between wOBA (.199) and xWOBA (.295). Obviously a pitcher with a .295 xWOBA isn’t one that we would typically attack aggressively but Astros hitters are priced more closely to a team that is facing off against a pitcher with a sub .200 wOBA (Altuve, the highest priced Astro on both FD + DK comes in as the 19th highest priced player on the slate).
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa Great Spot To Attack
The Phillies are one of my favorite teams to attack on this slate. They have a great matchup against Holland, they’re in a good ballpark, and they have a hitter friendly umpire tonight. In 129 innings against righties since the start of last season, Holland has a 1.72 WHIP with a .395 wOBA and a 41.8% hard hit rate. This is the first time this season he’s pitching in a hitter’s ballpark, and with so many options on this slate, I’d expect the Phillies to go a little overlooked. Altherr has a .403 xwOBA with a .266 ISO against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. For what it’s worth, I have a sticky note on my iMac to make sure I don’t forget to play the Phillies tonight.
All-Around Solid Skills
Nola has a nice price tag on FanDuel tonight at $9,000. He is an elite pitcher with strikeout upside against right-handed batters, and despite lower strikeouts, he is piling up soft contact against lefties. He is efficient with his pitches, leading to three straight starts of 7+ innings. The Giants are a reasonable matchup for him. If they send out four lefties, only one of them, Brandon Belt, is much of a power risk, and even with the better contact hitter for San Francisco, Nola’s skills win out in the righty-righty matchups.
Regression Works Both Ways
I want to stress that there are so many closely bunched pitching options tonight, nobody is a true Core Play for me in tournaments. I do not recommend a lock button on Bundy, it’s just that he’s my favorite option in this pricing tier on DK/FDRFT. After everything went his way in his first few starts, everything went against him in his last two starts. The truth lies in the middle, and what his season numbers show is what I’m expecting moving forward. A 27.1% K rate (34.4% vs RHB) gives him upside, and a low 6.2% walk rate should help the consistency. It all comes down to home runs with his fly ball lean in a hitters park. While the Royals are a low strikeout opponent, they are also a low power opponent, with only two lefties with any real power threat against him. I see him as under priced for the skills and matchup.
The Top Of A Long List
Pitching is loaded tonight, with plentiful options in all pricing tiers. At the high end, the huge price gap between Corey Kluber and James Paxton makes Paxton my top play. His huge 16-K performance last weekend was his third double-digit strikeout game of the season, and his 35.7% K rate on the year is heads and shoulders above everyone else on this slate. We are getting the highest upside pitcher without paying the highest price on any site. He’s not without risk with just average control and a high fly ball lean this season, but the upside is too good to pass. He’s more of a tournament priority, but even in cash games, he’s my first look tonight.
The Big Maple Coming Into Form
James Paxton’s early season struggles seem to be behind him at this point. Coming off a massive start last outing vs Oakland where Paxton put up 44.15 points, +29.56 above avg expected. Tonight he returns to his home country for a start vs the Toronto Blue Jays. Paxton is priced up his highest that he has seen this season to $11,000, where he has seen success in the past. Paxton is hitting at an 83.3% consistency rate when he is 10k or higher and seeing an avg/actual points of +6.10. Even better news, when Paxton is priced this high on the road he has hit at a whopping 100% consistency rate. Toronto is middle of the pack when it comes to K/9 but Paxton is still projected at the 4th highest with 7.3 strikeouts. I consider Paxton a core play when it comes to cash games.
Not The Same Pitcher In 2018
I played Danny Duffy a lot last season, but he’s just not the same guy this season. He has a 41.8% hard contact rate and a 14.5% soft contact rate, and it’s even worse against right-handed hitters. He has a .426 wOBA with a .346 ISO against righties this season, and whereas he was getting good results with his slider and changeup last season, that’s not been the case this season. Since the start of 2017, Valencia has a .396 xwOBA with a .199 ISO against left-handed pitching. In a small sample size this season, he has a .512 xwOBA with a .259 ISO. I really like this spot for Valencia, Machado, and Mancini tonight.
Elite Hard To Soft Contact Ratio Against Lefties
The mid-tier is really strong tonight, yet I’m thinking Zack Godley will have very low ownership against the Dodgers. The Dodgers were one of my favorite teams to stack last season, and even at the start of this season but with injuries, this isn’t the same team. The projected starters have a .325 wOBA with a 23.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They have power and that’s the one thing you have to worry about when playing Godley tonight. Godley has a really good curveball, and he’s using that and his sinker a lot against left-handed hitters this season. He has a .287 wOBA with a -6.5% (elite) hard to soft contact ratio against left-handed hitters this season. His overall well hit rate is 4.1% (elite), and it’s 1.4% against left-handed hitters. Corey Kluber has a 7.8% and Max Scherzer has a 7.5% well hit rate, just to give you an idea of how good Godley has been this season.
Trends Not Looking Good For McCullers
McCullers and the Astros continue their series in Oakland on Tuesday, coming along is his $11,300 price tag. McCullers has not fared well when being priced up this high in the past, with a consistency rate of only 37.55%. Along with the poor consistency, his average points compared to avg expected points is -5.25, a scary sign if you are playing cash games. When McCullers has been priced this high on the road his average actual points has dropped even more, coming in at 11.84, a -7.33 on the expected to actual scale. McCullers for me is a GPP play only due to his success last game vs Oakland but I will be fading in cash.
As reported by: Jeff McLean Top 3 Pitcher On This Slate For Me
Sean Newcomb is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate tonight, as I don’t think people realize how good he’s been this season. He comes in with a 27.6% strikeout rate, 48.9% ground ball rate, 3.4% hard to soft contact ratio, and a very low 7.6% well hit rate. Tampa is projected to have eight right-handed hitters in the lineup tonight, and I hope that scares people off Newcomb. He has a .284 wOBA with a .078 ISO and a 28.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He’s using his changeup to create a lot of soft contact and has a 30.4% soft contact rate against righties. CJ Cron, Wilson Ramos, and Daniel Robertson have all hit right-handed pitching well this season, but the rest of the lineup isn’t anything to be afraid of. There is a lot of strikeout upside here, and this is one of the best ballparks in baseball for pitchers.
Dallas Keuchel allowed a season high three home runs last time he faced the A's
While a 56 GB% would be an achievement for most pitchers, it’s actually a step backwards for Dallas Keuchel this season. He’s had some issues keeping the ball down and even allowed a season high three HRs against these A’s two starts back. He’s also gone at least seven innings in three of his last four with no more than three runs all season to anyone besides Oakland. He’s been effective despite a decline in strikeout rate (18.3%), along with ground balls. His .292 xwOBA is one of the lowest marks on the board. Two of the home runs came on a sinker and slider right down the pipe, but the third was a pretty good changeup (Baseball Savant’s Statcast pitch viz tool). They were hit by Chad Pinder (133 wRC+, .202 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Matt Chapman (115 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Mark Canha (112 wRC+, .222 ISO). The A’s have some dangerous bats in addition to Khris Davis (109 wRC+, .237 ISO) and can do some more damage if Keuchel again fails to locate consistently. Considering the state of this board, exposure to either side of this matchup would be acceptable.
Other tagged players: Mark Canha, Chad Pinder, Khris Davis, Dallas Keuchel
Brett Anderson had an increase in velocity and 13.8 SwStr% in his first start of the season
Brett Anderson had a 47.4 GB% and 13.8 SwStr% in his first start back for Oakland. His 93 mph and 43.8% sliders were both higher than his standard fare, so perhaps it was adrenaline or matchup related, but it’s an aspect to watch tonight. Over his career, he’s been about 20 points better against RHBs by wOBA, keeping them on the ground 54% of the time. This is predominantly how the Astros are likely to line up. George Springer (168 wRC+, .255 ISO vs LHP last calendar years), Jose Altuve (149 wRC+, .156 ISO), Carlos Correa (214 wRC+, .258 ISO) and Alex Bregman (145 wRC+, .228 ISO) are always strong options against southpaws. While Altuve has a 53 point xwOBA drop from his .403 actual wOBA over this time span against lefties, which may explain a wRC+ nearly above his ISO, he may be able to make up for that on the base paths tonight. There may be a few west coast stolen base opportunities here, which premium subscribers can find via the new Stolen Base Threat Ratings page. This lineup is not yet confirmed and the Astros have just a 102 wRC+ vs LHP this season, but quite a bit of potential in lineup full of dangerous right-handed bats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Stolen Base Threat Ratings Other tagged players: Brett Anderson, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman