DFS Alerts
Tyson Ross takes a trip to Coors five days after throwing 127 pitches
Tyson Ross threw 127 pitches five days ago in Arizona before his no-hit bid came to an end, the third straight start in which he’s reached triple digits, which may have some additional unwanted effect here, as if Coors wasn’t enough against an offense with the top implied run line on the slate (5.61). The slider, which he’s thrown over 40% of the time to batters from either side of the plate this year, seems to be working again (23.5 K%, 9.9 SwStr%, 2.81 ERA, 3.50 SIERA, 24.4 Z-O-Swing% – 2nd best among all of Wednesday’s pitchers – .277 xwOBA, 2.9% Barrels/BBE). All of that would be nice if Ross hadn’t throw so many pitches recently and were pitching at home. He’s not, so the best approach might be to find who in the Colorado lineup has success against sliders using PlateIQ. That would be DJ LeMahieu (.336 wOBA, .393 CxwOBA, 80.44 Contact%), Charlie Blackmon (.346 wOBA, .411 CxwOBA, .271 ISO), Nolan Arenado (.326 wOBA, .377 CxwOBA, .242 ISO) and Trevor Story (.329 wOBA, .408 CxwOBA, .297 ISO) surprisingly. None of the other four batters in the lineup exceed a .212 wOBA or .310 Contact xwOBA against the pitch since 2016, though David Dahl surely needs to be considered in the cleanup spot here for $3.5K on DraftKings. The bottom three not only fare poorly against sliders, but none even exceed a 55 wRC+ or .100 ISO against RHP since last season. On the other end, the Padres are in the middle of an eight team board (4.38 implied runs) against Jon Gray, who makes a substantial effort to increase his ground ball rate at home (50.1% vs 40.1% on the road career) at the cost of strikeouts (22.8% vs 25.8% on the road career). That may still be enough for consideration against an offense with a 27.4 K% and 88 wRC+ vs RHP this year, in addition to missing some middle of the order bats this afternoon. Offensively, Statcast favorite Franchy Cordero (101 wRC+, .243 ISO, 45 Hard% vs RHP career) is your man for $4K or less on either site. He and the more expensive Wil Myers (111 wRC+, .225 ISO, 39.4 Hard% vs RHP since 2017) share a 131 wRC+ over the last week, each with a hard hit rate above 45% (Myers 71.4%). They are the only two batters in the lineup who can combine a wRC+ above 100 with an ISO above .160 against RHP since last season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, David Dahl, Tyson Ross, Jon Gray, Franchy Cordero, Wil Myers
Two extreme fly ball pitchers faces off in Houston with the roof expected to be open
The Angels have the second lowest implied run line on the afternoon slate (3.18) in their matchup against Justin Verlander, one of the two Aces on the early board. Verlander has missed six innings just by a single out once this season, striking out at least nine in three of five starts, allowing more than a single run just once. Only Max Scherzer has averaged more innings per start than his 6.5 over the last two calendar years or has a highest strikeout rate than his 31.7% this year on this board. While he’s not going to sustain a .197 BABIP, Verlander is an extreme fly ball pitcher (29.7%) with a high IFFB rate (14.3%) and low Z-Contact rate (76.6%), which profiles well for his mark in the future. This helps his xwOBA (.282) stay below .300 despite still being well above his actual. He’s not in an ideal spot against an offense with a 109 wRC+ and 18.6 K% vs RHP, but he does get to face them in a negative run environment, though perhaps a bit less negative with the roof expected to be open. Considering the extreme fly ball profile without much of a platoon split for Verlander, Mike Trout (190 wRC+, .436 xwOBA, .355 ISO, 41.2 Hard%, 47.1 FB% since 2017) is a reasonable play, even against one of the top pitchers in the league. Justin Upton (118 wRC+, .230 ISO, 39.6 Hard%), Zack Cozart (127 wRC+, .228 ISO) and Luis Valbuena (97 wRC+, .227 ISO) exhibit significant pop against RHP as well since last season. The Astros have the third highest implied run line at 4.82 against Nick Tropeano, who pitched well against Kansas City and then struggled against the Red Sox since returning from TJ surgery. It’s difficult to draw a lot of analysis from those two matchups on opposite ends of the offensive spectrum, but Tropeano has a career 35 point difference in a standard platoon splite merely because his walk rate is double against LHBs. Batters from either side have a ground ball rate below 30% with something around league average strikeout and hard hit rates. Players not paying up for pitching, may certainly like the big three at a high cost (all above 125 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since last season). Josh Reddick (136 wRC+, .199 ISO), Yulieski Gurriel (129 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Alex Bregman (112 wRC+, .165 ISO) cost around $1K less. Marwin Gonzalez (148 wRC+, .217 ISO) cheaper still, though there’s a 43 point drop from his wOBA to his xwOBA vs RHP since last season. All except Gurriel (108) exceed a 140 wRC+ over the last week, though only Gonzalez, George Springer and Carlos Correa are above a 25% hard hit rate over that span.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Nick Tropeano, Josh Reddick, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Yulieski Gurriel, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman, Zack Cozart, Luis Valbuena Paying up at Shortstop
We don’t have a Coors Field game in the main slate, which should lead to more spread out ownership. I always prefer the non-Coors slates, as we don’t feel obligated to target the Rockies or the team that they are facing. Anyway, Manny Machado is a great option at shortstop tonight. The Orioles have a high implied run total, as they take on Jake Faria at home. Since the beginning of last season, Faria has allowed a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.
Perfect Matchup for this Power Bat
I’m not going to lie, I play Joey Gallo every time he is facing a right-handed pitcher with a low strikeout rate. Tonight is no exception, as he takes on Kendall Graveman at home. Graveman’s biggest strength at this point is his ground ball rate, but Gallo has one of the highest fly-ball rates of any hitter in baseball. Since the beginning of last season, he owns a .375 xwOBA and a .332 ISO against righties.
James Shields has allowed just one HR in 2018, but the wind is blowing out in Chicago
Felix Hernandez and James Shields is a great pitching matchup if you have access to a time machine. This afternoon, however, it represents two of the top five implied run lines on a four game afternoon board. Seattle, being the only offense above five (5.12) on the slate outside Coors, is facing a pitcher who has walked more (13) than he’s struck out (11) through 23.1 innings and is one of several pitchers on Wednesday with an xwOBA above .400. The odd thing is that Shields has only allowed a single HR, which came in his first start in Kansas City. Kevin’s early forecast may provide a remedy for that with winds gusting out towards right up to 25 mph. Lefties have torched him for a .388 wOBA (.390 xwOBA) since last season, though righties have actually hit the ball a bit harder (34.2% to 32.4%) with a few more in the air (35.4 GB% to 42.3 GB%). Stack your Mariners. Dee Gordon and Ben Gamel tie for the lowest wRC+ (99) vs RHP since last season in this lineup with the two through six batters plus Mike Zunino all above a .190 ISO. In fact, Zunino, along with Mitch Haniger (147 wRC+) and Nelson Cruz (148 wRC+) all eclipse a .240 ISO against same handed pitching over that span. Haniger adds a 297 wRC+ over the last week with he Cruz, Zunino and Robinson Cano (138 wRC+, .193 ISO) all making hard contact on at least 40% of batted balls. Gordon, Gamel and Jean Segura are the only three in the lineup below a 37% hard hit rate against RHP since last season. With Nelson Cruz the highest cost on either site ($4.3K on DK), the Mariners are a lower cost alternative to Coors that may allow players to pay up for stud pitchers. The White Sox are the low team of the five (4.38) and Felix hasn’t been bad outside of one awful start (4 IP – 8 ER – 3 HR – 5 BB – 1 K) in San Francisco of all places. His line otherwise: 22.2 IP – 7 ER – 5 BB – 19 K – 91 BF). While the Sox have probably exceeded expectations to this point, the King is not a bad SP2 choice for much less than $7K this afternoon. The Sox have a 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP. There are reasons for concern though. , Felix’s SwStr has not exceeded 9.3% yet and his 93.3 Z-Contact% is the worst mark among all Wednesday pitchers with Statcast offering a .396 xwOBA that’s 73 points above actual. Left-handed batters have a .409 xwOBA (.355 wOBA) since last season. Yoan Moncada (134 wRC+, .380 xwOBA, .245 ISO, 44.7 Hard% vs RHP career) has seen his cost rise, but he is the bat players want here. He has a 219 wRC+ over the last week. Although he and Nick Delmonico are only separated by 20 points of actual wOBA against RHP since last season, they are separated by 200 points via Contact xwOBA, our newest PlateIQ stat.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, James Shields, Dee Strange-Gordon, Ben Gamel, Mike Zunino, Felix Hernandez, Yoan Moncada, Nicky Delmonico Mashing Lefties and Taking Names
Most don’t want to admit it, but the Cardinals actually have one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. Tonight they square off against Steven Matz, who has struggled against right-handed hitters throughout his career. Tommy Pham should be batting near the top of the order tonight and since the beginning of last season, he boasts a .371 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate against southpaws.
SP2 Will Make Your Stomach Turn
The search for an SP2 is gross in this eight-game main slate. Ideally, we’d like to play Zack Greinke, but it’s basically impossible to pair him up with Clayton Kershaw given how expensive they both are. Instead, I will be looking to Jake Arrieta, who looked dominant in his last start. He struck out ten batters in a win over the Pirates. He now faces a Diamondbacks’ offense that has power, but can also strikeout at a high rate. I wouldn’t call him a safe play by any means, but we don’t have a lot to work with at pitcher tonight.
No Brainer at Pitcher
There will be a few instances where we will see a team be a -380 favorite this season, but they won’t come very often. Clayton Kershaw currently owns a 2.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and he gets to face the Marlins at home in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the National League. In case you were wondering, the Marlins are awful against left-handed pitching. Their projected lineup has a .304 xwOBA with a 29% strikeout rate against southpaws.
A Lot Of Home Run Upside
I expect Chacin to have some solid ownership tonight because of his price. I like him a lot on DraftKings to get Kershaw into lineups easier. With that I said, I expect it to lower the ownership of the hitters for the Royals. Chacin has struggled with left-handed power bats. He has a 1.61 WHIP with a 17.6% hard to soft contact ratio since the start of last season. Over his last 364 ABs against righties, Duda has a .280 ISO with a 42.3% hard contact rate. With the low ownership, Duda makes for a really good tournament play tonight.
Attack This Pitcher
With Beltre expected to miss the game tonight, I would expect Mazara to hit third. I want to attack the Texas bats tonight against Graveman, and Mazara/Choo have really solid price tags. Graveman has a .340 wOBA with a 16.9% strikeout rate against lefties since the start of 2017. He has a 1.45 WHIP in that span, and a 1.41 HR/9. Mazara is off to a slow start this season, but looking into the numbers more, I’m not too concerned. He has a .424 xwOBA with a 91.7 EVAvg against righties this season. The groundballs are concerning, but on this slate, he’s surely someone I’m looking at in all formats.
Ready to Break Out Offensively?
It has been a struggle for the Royals to start the year, but they are finally getting some pieces healthy. Salvador Perez returned last night and promptly hit a home run, while Alex Gordon returned to the lineup as well. This offense should improve going forward, and they draw a nice matchup against Jhoulys Chacin this evening. Chacin has allowed a .426 wOBA to left-handed bats so far this year, so the power bats of Moustakas and Duda are your primary plays here. Perez can also be considered as part of a stack, especially on DraftKings where you need to roster a catcher. This could be a sneaky spot for offense tonight.
Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Salvador Perez
A Potential Shootout and a Struggling Pitcher
The Rangers draw a nice matchup tonight in their hitter-friendly home park against a pitcher who has really been struggling to start the season. Kendall Graveman has been nothing short of awful to start 2018, and this game is the most likely shootout of the night. While the first couple games of this series have been relatively quiet, I don’t expect that this evening. The price tags on the Rangers’ bats are also very affordable on most sites, so it is possible to get in some Rangers bats plus Kershaw. That’s a lineup build that is really intriguing even before we see where the value is in the Texas lineup. Adrian Beltre got hurt last night, so we might see some very nice value here.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Jurickson Profar Lefties, Lefties, Lefties!
Don’t be fooled by the fact that Doug Fister has shown reverse splits in a small sample size to start 2018. He’s definitely a traditional splits pitcher. In 2017, he allowed a .365 wOBA to left-handed bats, and they posted a hard contact rate of nearly 40% against him. On the other hand, he held righties to a 25% hard contact rate. Target any and all Oakland lefties here, especially given the park boost in Texas. Jed Lowrie has been raking to start the year, Matt Olson provides a ton of power potential, and Matt Joyce is a nice value. That sounds like a nice trio for a mini-stack to me!
Other tagged players: Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson The Price Doesn't Match the Skill Set
Faria remains under-priced on all the DFS sites, and he makes a great complementary pairing with Kershaw in multi-pitcher formats this evening. While the matchup looks imposing on paper against the Orioles, this Baltimore offense has been scuffling a bit in April. If you disregard one awful start against the Red Sox where he just didn’t have his stuff, Faria has allowed just three runs total in his other three starts. He has a 13/3 K/BB ratio in his last two outings. He’s getting sharper and more comfortable at the big league level, and he also showed some promising signs a year ago. Given his cheap price point, he will land on a lot of my GPP rosters this evening, and I also think he can be considered for cash games.
Going High And Going Low
Faria is only a Core Play if you are using Clayton Kershaw tonight. It’s asking too much to spend up for Kershaw without saving salary at SP2. If we assume that the bad opening starts for Faria were just a mirage, as his last two starts suggest, then he is simply underpriced. In 2017, he posted a 23.5% strikeout rate with 8.7% walks and a 3.43 ERA (4.26 SIERA). He has been right back to that level with a 13:3 K:BB ratio and two runs allowed in his last two starts, and he is facing a watered down Orioles lineup with a lot of strikeout potential. There is still some risk here, but there is very little gap between his skills and the guys priced $2-$3k ahead of him.
