DFS Alerts
Skills Just Keep Improving
Jhoulys Chacin was one of the most attackable pitchers in the league against left-handed batters last season, and it’s gotten worse this year as he just can’t find the strike zone, and when he does, it gets hit hard. Moustakas had a breakout season in 2017 with a career high 38 HR, and so far in the early going, he looks even better with a 47% hard hit rate and just 13% strikeouts. With that combination of contact and hard hit ability, there’s just no way for below average right-handed pitchers to get past him.
The Most Obvious Pitching Choice... Ever?
This one is a no-brainer. If you can fit Kershaw into any type of lineup build tonight, do it. He’s the best pitcher of my generation and gets to face a Marlins team that basically ranks at the bottom of the league by any offensive metric. I would be shocked if Kershaw struggles in this game, as he is a -375 Vegas favorite. The Marlins have an implied team total of 2.25 runs. Enough said.
The Game To Load Up On
This A’s-Rangers game is the premier spot for offense tonight, and the salaries do not match the skill sets. Shin-Soo Choo just keeps piling up hits and runs, and his salary doesn’t budge, especially on DK/FDRFT. Kendall Graveman is going to allow balls in play tonight, and Choo continues hitting the ball hard. He is working on his third straight season with over 40% hard hits against right-handed pitching and he already has 5 HR, 15 Runs and 11 RBI in just over 3 weeks of action.
Easily The Top Option
The need to pay up for Clayton Kershaw at this salary is going to be dependent on the weather on the East Coast. There is no mystery that Kershaw is the best pitcher on this slate in the best matchup, with the highest floor and ceiling by a wide margin. However, I do want to caution that at this salary, there is not much points per dollar upside, and almost certainly, he will not have the highest points per dollar day. But, at home against Miami, this as certain a quality start as we will ever see. If all of the games play cleanly, Kershaw is not a must play, but still the highest raw points play by a wide margin.
Take Advantage On FanDuel
Matt Olson is mispriced on FanDuel tonight. He has 227 PAs against righties since being called up last season. He has a .420 wOBA with a .541 xwOBA and a .362 ISO in that span. He has a big 31.3% strikeout rate, but when he makes contact, it’s usually hard contact. Fister has really struggled with lefties, and his strikeout rate since the start of last season is under 20%. He’s allowed a .357 wOBA with a 25.8% hard to soft contact ratio to left-handed hitters. I think Olson is in play in all formats tonight on FanDuel, and an excellent tournament play on DraftKings.
Searching For Upside
We have a clear-cut top option tonight, and when looking at the slate, we will be searching for upside outside of Kershaw. Rodriguez has a 25.2% strikeout rate against righties and a 30.2% strikeout rate against lefties since the start of 2017. The walks and the power numbers are what concern me with him. He gets a lot of poor hits because of his above average changeup, and outside of a few bats, this lineup doesn’t have a lot of power in it. Smoak, Pillar, and Morales have good numbers against lefties, but six of the projected starters have strikeout rates over 20% against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. With the limited options, I’m willing to take a shot on the strikeout upside of Rodriguez tonight.
Ideal Matchup For This Power Bat
It doesn’t get much better from a matchup standpoint for Gallo than facing Kendall Graveman at home. Gallo’s biggest weakness is strikeouts, and Graveman is one of the lowest strikeout pitchers in the league, with a career 15% K rate to lefties. He also throws mostly sinkers, which is a pitch that Gallo crushes. There is always risk with Gallo, but this is the right matchup to look for his power to come through.
Way Too Cheap On DraftKings
When looking at the cheaper options on this slate, Jhoulys Chacin really stands out to me. He’s coming off a good game against the Marlins and faces a lot of righties again tonight. Perez being back helps this Royals lineup, but it’s just not a very good lineup. They project to have five right-handed hitters in the lineup, and I’m not too worried about Jay and Gordon. Since the start of 2017, this projected lineup has a combined .277 wOBA with a 20% strikeout rate against righties. Chacin has a .274 wOBA with a 23.4% strikeout rate against righties since the start of 2017. He has struggled with lefties, he has a .347 wOBA with a 14.6% strikeout rate in that same span. He has an above average groundball rate against righties and lefties, and an elite hard to soft contact ratio against righties.
Start of Tuesday’s SD-COL game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies on Tuesday night will be delayed due to inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Rockies have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since this game is taking place at Coors Field, starting pitchers weren’t realistic options for any daily fantasy formats, but the late start is obviously a potential sign for the game playing through without a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the delay could be lengthy and there’s still a possibility that the game is postponed due to the precipitation and cold temperatures.
As reported by: Kevin Acee via Twitter
Start of Tuesday's DET-PIT game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Pirates have not committed to a specific timeline to provide further updates. The late start is better news for the prospects of the starting pitchers like Chad Kuhl not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the delay is expected to be lengthy and there’s still a possibility that the game is postponed.
As reported by: Bill Brink via Twitter Dillon Peters has been hit hard (92.8 mph aEV) and missed few bats (13.5 K%)
Dillon Peters has struck out a total of 12 batters through four starts and allowed a total of 15 runs (four HRs) over his last three with 10 walks. Though he did not allow a lot of hard contact in his cup of coffee last season, he has a 92.8 mph aEV with more than half his contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. This is a pitcher players can attack with a Dodger lineup owning a 4.75 implied run line tonight. The Dodger lineup has not yet been confirmed, but should include many of the same batters as last night against their second straight southpaw. Kike Hernandez (143 wRC+, .292 ISO, 42 Hard% vs LHP since last season) is affordable and projected for a top of the order lineup spot. Austin Barnes (136 wRC+, .240 ISO) offers more salary relief, likely to bat lower in the order though. Chris Taylor (117 wRC+, .190 ISO) is likely your leadoff hitter. None of the three cost more than $3.7K on either site.
Other tagged players: Dillon Peters, Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes
Projected Ownership can be used along with other premium tools to gain an advantage in difficult spots
It may seem easy when it comes to Coors. Just find a way to fit in those bats somehow. Yet, there may be conditions tonight where RotoGrinders premium tools can really give an extra advantage. In addition to Projected Ownership ratings, there may be an umpire situation worth being aware of in this spot (both tools available to premium subscribers in LineupHQ), while Kevin will be updating us on note worthy weather conditions right up until 7 pm lock on Crunch Time. A combination of projected ownership and umpire ratings is always a great resource to help with some difficult pitching decisions.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Kyle Freeland has a career .322 wOBA against RHBs at Coors (61.5 GB%, 0.8 Hard-Soft%)
The San Diego Padres have an implied run line above 4.5 at Coors tonight, but…this is not a pretty spot. In addition to weather concerns, the Padres are down almost an entire middle of the order (Hosmer, Villanueva, Renfroe) against a lefty with some extreme splits. Kyle Freeland doesn’t miss a lot of right-handed bats (3.8% at home in his career), but has held RHBs to a .322 wOBA at Coors due to a 61.5 GB% and 0.8 Hard-Soft%. If you believe Franchy Cordero (88 wRC+, .182 ISO, 44.4 Hard% vs LHP) can make contact (LHBs 34.1 K% vs Freeland at Coors), he could be the most interesting choice (LHBs .346 wOBA, 35.6 GB%, 36.7 Hard% vs Freeland at Coors). The Padres still have a few right-handed bats proficient against LHP though: Manuel Margot (106 wRC+, .181 ISO), Wil Myers (109 wRC+, .201 ISO, 52.5 Hard%), and Jose Pirela (141 wRC+, .237 ISO), all in the same range as Cordero on FanDuel, but a bit more expensive on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Kyle Freeland, Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Jose Pirela One game down, but still more danger in Kevin's evening forecast
One game has already been cancelled, but Kevin’s evening forecast puts a few more in danger (ORANGE). Players can read the full report on the Weather page, but premium subscribers will want to tune into Crunch Time at 6:30 and allow Kevin to walk you through all the weather activity on Tuesday night.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time Devin Mesoraco (neck stiffness) scratched Tuesday; Tucker Barnhart replaces
Mesoraco has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not play in Tuesday’s matchup against the Atlanta Braves due to neck stiffness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Tucker Barnhart, who will play catcher and slot directly into Mesoraco’s sixth spot in the order, which means that the remainder of the Reds lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Brandon McCarthy this evening.
As reported by: C. Trent Rosecrans via Twitter