DFS Alerts
Jarlin Garcia (96.2 LOB%, .096 BABIP) has struck out just seven of his last 57 batters with nine walks
Jarlin Garcia gained instant recognition when he entered an extra-inning game against the Cubs the first week of the season and proceeded to throw six one-hit innings, striking out six of the 20 batters he’s faced. He’s since allowed two runs in 15 innings, but struck out just seven of 57 batters faced, while walking nine (96.2 LOB%, .096 BABIP this season). His 11.3% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board behind just Mike Leake. The 25 year old was below average as a reliever last year and can’t be found on any prospect lists. A reckoning seems to be at hand. Statcast seems to suggest a .343 xwOBA for RHBs against him in his career, making this an interesting spot for a number of low cost options, including Chris Taylor (118 wRC+, .193 ISO vs LHP since last season), Kike Hernandez (137 wRC+, .280 ISO) and Austin Barnes (133 wRC+, .235 ISO).
Other tagged players: Austin Barnes, Jarlin Garcia, Chris Taylor
Walker Buehler's major league debut will face a Miami lineup without Justin Bour
The Miami Marlins are giving daily fantasy players every incentive to roster Walker Buehler tonight. The first time major league starts has exceeded a 25 K% and 50 GB% at every professional stop and Miami has just listed a lineup without either Derek Dietrich or Justin Bour. Bour’s absence means that J.T. Realmuto has both the highest wRC+ (105) and ISO (.169) against RHP since last season. Buehler costs just $6.2K on DraftKings (unavailable on FanDuel) against the lineup with the lowest implied run line on the board (3.02), but remember that the Dodgers are cautious about letting their starters go much longer than twice through the order and he has faced no more than 20 batters in any of his three AAA starts this year.
Other tagged players: J.T. Realmuto Stolen Base Threat Ratings and Umpire Ratings among new features available to Premium subscribers
There is one particular stolen base threat who grades very highly tonight against the catcher with the highest takeoff rate on the board. Premium subscribers can now find this information in the new Stolen Base Threat Ratings. Also available to both BAT and premium subscribers are Umpire Ratings built into Lineup HQ as they become available throughout the night. The difference between an extreme hitter’s or pitcher’s umpire can help players make sometimes difficult decisions.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Stolen Base Threat Ratings Light rain with low overall concern in a quiet forecast from Kevin
Concern is low on Monday night with only light rain in a couple of spots potentially. The full forecast is available on the Weather page, but premium subscribers can get a more in-depth breakdown from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30pm.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time Christian Villanueva (153 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP) faces a reverse platoon righty at Coors
The San Diego Padres have a team 46 wRC+ over the last week with an astounding 34.1 K%. To that, they add a 27.7 K% and 84 wRC+ against RHP. Not very encouraging for a team with a 4.77 implied run line tonight. Nor can players rely on Chad Bettis and his 15.5 K%. His 1.44 ERA is pumped by a .217 BABIP and 95.2 LOB%. His career has resulted in some strange platoon splits, where he’s actually been better at home (4.28 FIP) and against LHBs (.320 wOBA, 53.5 GB%). Right-handed hitters have a nearly 50 point higher wOBA and eight point lower ground ball rate. Christian Villanueva (153 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP career, 278 wRC+, 43.8 Hard% last seven days) becomes the most interesting hitter here at a cost of exactly $4K on both sites. Additionally, Wil Myers (108 wRC+, .223 ISO since last year) has hit same handed pitching well too with a stark $1.6K price discrepancy between sites. Eric Hosmer (146 wRC+, .189 ISO) is playable in this environment, but may end up a bit over-owned for all of the ground balls he’s likely to produce in this matchup. Francy Cordero (107 wRC+, .258 ISO, 45.6 Hard% vs RHP career) may be the more interesting left-handed bat here for $500 less on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Franchy Cordero, Chad Bettis Cleanup hitter at Coors costs just $2.8K on DraftKings against Bryan Mitchell (-10.7 K-BB%)
Bryan Mitchell has a Statcast estimated .400 xwOBA despite an 87.1 mph aEV, and 27.9% 95+ mph EV that’s second best on the board (both behind Carrasco). That’s the result of a -10.7 K-BB%. With the Rockies owning a board high implied run line above six, are players paying up for walks tonight? Aside from Charlie Blackmon (149 wRC+, .305 ISO vs RHP since 2017), Nolan Arenado (99 wRC+, .224 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup with a wRC+ above 90 against RHP since last season or overall for the last seven days. This feels more like something players will be forced to do rather than wanting to tonight. To add extra insult, the cleanup hitter David Dahl, who has just five major league PAs since 2016, is not even available on FanDuel. He does cost just $2.8K on DraftKings, where it would now be a shock if he weren’t the most popular play tonight.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Bryan Mitchell, Charlie Blackmon Tyler Skaggs has a 12.1 SwStr%, but a 90.8 mph aEV and particular struggles against RHBs (36.3 Hard% since 2017)
There are three pitchers today with a SwStr in the 12% range, but all three have allowed more than 40% of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. Tyler Skaggs is probably the one most people wouldn’t guess and he probably has the worst matchup of the three too. Although Houston might be the most pitcher friendly run environment on the board, the Astros negate that with a 116 wRC+ (14.9 HR/FB) against LHP, similar to their mark last year. Houston is one of several teams with an implied run line hovering around five with a stack of potent right-handed bats up against a pitcher who has allowed a 36.3 Hard% to that side since last season. Aside from the big three, all above a 150 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs southpaws since last season, Alex Bregman (144 wRC+, .207 ISO) has been the biggest left-masher, but stays in his new middle of the order home, batting fifth tonight. He costs quite a bit less than the top three though. George Springer (169 wRC+, .281 ISO) and Carlos Correa (185 wRC+, .211 ISO) are the only batters in the lineup above a 30% hard hit rate over the last week and each have an identical .440 xwOBA against LHP since last season.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Carlos Correa, Tyler Skaggs The Oakland A's have the highest implied run line outside of Coors (5.36)
Matt Moore in Texas has worked out about as expected with his lone strong start last time out against his old team the only road adventure he’s had this season. He returns to a difficult park to face, perhaps the hottest offense on the board. The A’s have mauled their way to a 110 wRC+ vs LHP this year and a 136 team wRC+ over the last week. Moore’s reverse platoon split that has LHBs above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA since last season matters just where Matt Olson (83 wRC+, .183 ISO vs LHP career) is involved, the lone LHB in the lineup. No cause for concern, as RHBs have a .330 wOBA (.344 xwOBA) and equal 36% hard hit and ground ball rates against Moore since last season as well. Only the Rockies have a higher implied run line than Oakland’s 5.36 mark tonight. Aside from some of the more obvious power hitters, Jed Lowrie (116 wRC+, .154 ISO vs LHP since last season) is the hottest bat in the lineup (196 wRC+, 50 Hard%) with a price tag beginning to reflect that ($4K or more on either site). Khris Davis (112 wRC+, .242 ISO, 48 Hard%) and Matt Chapman (112 wRC+, .198 ISO, 57.4 FB%) are top bats as well.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Matt Moore Carson Fulmer doesn't allow a ton of hard contact, but can't find the strike zone against LHBs (18.2 BB% career)
Carson Fulmer is the late replacement for Miguel Gonzalez and that may be bad news for the Mariners only because he’s only thrown 2.1 innings since April 10th. LHBs have a .362 career wOBA against him because of an 18.2 BB%. Though he doesn’t generate a lot of ground balls, contact management hasn’t been that bad (LHBs just a 26.5 Hard%). It’s just with all those runners on base, bad things are bound to happen. Tonight, he faces a Seattle lineup without a single batter below a 100 wRC+ since last season with the entire middle of the order (three through six along with Mike Zunino) above a .190 ISO vs RHP. While walks aren’t generally what daily fantasy players are looking for, many of them are likely to turn into runs scored with a 4.9 implied run line for Seattle.
Other tagged players: Carson Fulmer More Savings In This Game
The Padres lineup messed with my plans a bit, with both Austin Hedges and Manny Margot on the bench. But, it’s a never ending parade of Padres savings on FanDuel, and with Hosmer, we get a middle of the order bat at Coors Field against low strikeout pitcher. Yes, he’s started out slowly this season, but this is an established veteran and not the type of player to worried about after three weeks.
Mike Leake (93.3 mph aEV, 13.2% Barrels/BBE) has been the worst contact manager on the board
Yoan Moncada (123 wRC+, .368 xwOBA, .217 ISO, 43.2 Hard% vs RHP career) has been one of the hardest contact producers in the league this season according to an earlier tweet by MLB.com’s Mike Petriello today. He just happens to match up with the hardest contact generator on the board in Mike Leake, who has allowed a 93.3 mph aEV, 13.2% Barrels/BBE and 55.3% 95+ mph EV, all worst on the board and not particularly close. This is good for a .463 xwOBA via Statcast. With a 7.8 SwStr%, concerns about Moncada’s contact ability (39.8 K% this season) are eased as well. This is a high upside play at a reasonable cost tonight ($4K or less on either site). In addition, Jose Abreu and Matt Davidson both exceed a .230 ISO and 40 Hard% against RHP since last season as well. RHBs have a 36.3 Hard% against Leake, who’s overall ground ball rate is below 40% this year. The White Sox, at just 4.1 implied runs, may represent some hidden opportunity tonight.
As reported by: Mike Petriello Other tagged players: Mike Leake, Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson Twins pack a lot of power into lineup against a HR prone pitcher in Yankee Stadium
Masahiro Tanaka is a high upside pitcher, who struggles greatly with the home run ball. Exposure to either or even both sides of this matchup can pay off. Joe Mauer (.125) is the only one of the first seven Twins in the batting order with an ISO below .200 vs RHP since last season with all seven above a 105 wRC+. The other interesting thing here is that Brian Dozier (112 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Miguel Sano (113 wRC+, .228 ISO) are the only two in the lineup above a $3.3K cost on either site. Eddie Rosario (131 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Logan Morrison (123 wRC+, .277 ISO) look particularly interesting as home run targets tonight. Although Tanaka actually keeps LHBs on the ground more often since last season (54.4% vs 44.6%), he has virtually no platoon split by xwOBA. While Tanaka has allowed 12 runs over his last 10 innings, the Twins have just a 3.46 implied run line.
Other tagged players: Logan Morrison, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, Masahiro Tanaka Kevin Gausman is still struggling with the HR ball (six in four starts), faces a tough Cleveland lineup tonight
The Cleveland offense has been a bit slow out of the gate, but they have a team 108 wRC+ over the last week and a trip to a very power friendly park in Baltimore against a home run prone pitcher in Kevin Gausman, who has allowed six in four starts despite two straight “quality” starts. The hottest Tribe bats include Michael Brantley (128 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP since last season), Jose Ramirez (149 wRC+, .280 ISO) and Yonder Alonso (137 wRC+, .228 ISO), all of whom exceed a 150 wRC+ over the last week week, but none above a 33% hard hit rate. While Gausman has had a bit of a reverse platoon split in the past, batters from either side have been around the .350 (both xwOBA and wOBA) since last season, though RHBs still have a hard hit rate a few points higher (34.3% to 29.9%). The immediate thought is Edwin Encarnacion (129 wRC+, .260 ISO), but he has not been able to get much going yet (42 wRC+, 21.4 Hard% over the last week). Gausman’s cost is low enough on DraftKings ($5.8K) that he may merit some consideration in a secondary role. Though strikeouts are down, his 12.1 SwStr% suggests more are to come.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion, Kevin Gausman Jake Odorizzi (RHBs 39.3 Hard% since last season) could be in trouble at Yankee Stadium
The Yankees are third on the board with a 5.04 implied run line tonight and this is a spot that Jake Odorizzi could find some trouble with as a fly ball pitcher with a career reverse platoon split, visiting Yankee Stadium. While he hasn’t exhibited much of a split since last season (RHBs .319 wOBA, .332 xwOBA – LHBs .312 wOBA, .323 xwOBA), RHBs have a 39.3 Hard% against him. He’s playing a dangerous game against a lineup where seven of the first eight batters have a wRC+ above 115 against RHP since last season with only Brett Gardner (.180) below a .220 ISO. It’s difficult to find a Yankee bat to take off the board, though Didi Gregorius (.316 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) has the lowest hard hit rate of the bunch (28.1%) and may be a tad over-priced. Players looking for the bargain in this lineup may have to consider Miguel Andujar (186 wRC+, .416 ISO, .357 ISO, 48.6 Hard%) in the eight hole in order to pay up for someone like Aaron Judge (178 wRC+, .442 xwOBA, .348 ISO, 43.8 Hard% vs RHP since last season) at $5.4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Jake Odorizzi Carlos Carrasco and Gerrit Cole lead a pack with some strikeout upside tonight
Monday night’s board has several high upside arms at varying levels of risk, the least of which lies with Carlos Carrasco (in Baltimore) and Gerrit Cole (vs Los Angeles – AL). Carrasco has allowed a single run over his last 16 innings with just six hits. His strikeout rate is down this year (20.6%), but an 11.4 SwStr% inspires more confidence and he’s been the best contact manager on the board this season (86.4 mph aEV, 27.3% 95+ mph EV). The Orioles have a 65 wRC+ and 26.3 K% vs RHP. Cole went seven innings for the fourth straight start to open the season, but struck out just five Mariners (his first single digit effort) despite throwing his highest rate of sliders (30%) in a start this season. Seattle was, by far, the best offense he’s faced. He returns home to one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball, but may have to face an even tougher offense (the Angels 112 wRC+, 18.1 K% vs RHP). Gio Gonzalez and Masahiro Tanaka represent the next class. Gio hasn’t reached six innings since his first start and part of that has been getting BABIP’d this season (.371) with no underlying indicators to justify this, though he occasionally struggles with control too. His 25.8 K% this season perfectly matches the Giants’ mark against LHP. His $10.8K cost on DraftKings makes him the third highest priced pitcher on DraftKings with a $2K gap to the next pitcher, which happens to be Tanaka. The Yankee right-handers is up to his old tricks with a 24.5 K% and 20 HR/FB. He faces a Minnesota offense with a similar 24 K% vs RHP, but in the always dangerous Yankee Stadium. Tanaka has allowed 12 ERs over his last 10 innings in starts in Boston and vs Miami. Potential high strikeout arms at a lower price point include Trevor Cahill (15.2 SwStr%, 68.8 GB%) in Texas (24.3 K% vs RHP) and Walker Buehler (25+ K% and 50+ GB% at every stop of the minors), making his first major league start against the Marlins (68 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP). The former is in a dangerous park, but did put up some lofty strikeout numbers last season before succumbing to injury. The latter costs just $6.2K on DraftKings, but pitches for a team that likes to limit most of their pitchers to two times through the order and has not faced more than 20 batters in any of his three AAA starts this year. It’s no surprise that the opposition to these pitchers represent the five lowest implied run totals on the board with only Cahill’s opponent (the Rangers) breaking the four run mark.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Walker Buehler