DFS Alerts
Power Options
After Monday’s abundance of stacking options, Tuesday seems barren outside of the obvious Coors + Arlington targets. Lack of options have me back to targeting one of my old friends, JA Happ. Happ is a good enough pitcher where he’s typically not a guy that you’re going to target but when he does struggle, he struggles via the long ball – he’s already allowed five homers over his first four starts of the year. If you’re not sold on the Red Sox as a whole team stack, I do like using these power options as fillers as individually they present strong HR upside.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, JD Martinez
Eat the High Price Tag
Robbie Ray is Tuesday night’s edition of the low-owned, overpriced, high strikeout upside GPP pitcher du jour. Ray has been a bit underwhelming to start the year largely due to lack of control (14.4 BB%) but he’s still shown strong strikeout upside with a 33% strikeout rate. The Phillies have been strong offensively versus southpaws to star the season (118 wRC+, 18.6 K%) but there is little doubt that they’re over-performing their true talent. Ray arguably has the highest ceiling of the slate (Maeda + Ohtani up there) so it makes sense to eat his high price tag in GPP in hopes of capitalizing on low ownership.
Double-Digit Strikeout Upside
It’s unlikely that Maeda will get to face the watered down lineup that Buehler made his Big League debut against Monday night. However, even with the addition of Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich this Marlins lineup is well below average as evidenced by their 68 wRC+ and 24.8% strikeout rate against right handed pitching to start the year. The Dodgers are the biggest favorites of the slate (-250) and Maeda has shown impressive stuff with a 15.1 SwStr% and 34.8% strikeout rate through four starts this season. Maeda has thrown double digit strikeouts in two of his four games and has double digit strikeout upside again Tuesday night.
Still Underpriced Tonight
FanDuel bumped up some of the Padres salaries tonight, but Wil Myers remains way too cheap and close to a must play in Coors Field against a low strikeout lefty. Myers only weakness is strikeouts, and the Rockies Kyle Freeland has just a 12.5% K rate against righties in his career. Myers had a 53% hard hit rate against lefties in 2017 and has home run and stolen base ability in addition to hitting near the top of the lineup at Coors Field.
Attackable Pitcher And Price Point
Jordan Zimmermann is one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball. He throws a ton of strikes and allows them to be hit hard and in the air. He has shown some strikeout ability this season that we haven’t seen out of him in a long time, but coming off back-to-back seasons with a strikeout rate below 15%, I’m far from a believer, even with his increased slider usage. There are several good values in the Pirates lineup, but Josh Bell stands out at his salary with his contact skills and patience combined with decent power and his middle of the order lineup spot. First base is weaker than usual tonight, so I like this is a place to save some money.
Strong Values In This Game
On DK/FDRFT, the Oakland-Texas game has some of the best values of the night. I don’t know what more Shin-Soo Choo has to do to get his salary raised. He bats near the top of the lineup and just continues to pile up production with his strong plate skills and hard hit ability. Andrew Triggs has struggled badly his last couple starts and is allowing a ton of hard contact to lefties this season.
Pile On The Righties Here
Story is always a bit of a strikeout risk, but there is way too much upside against left-handed pitching to pass on at this price. For his career, Story has a 53% hard hit rate with 47% fly balls and a .332 ISO against lefties. He has a home run once every 12.6 AB against lefties and is only the 4th highest priced SS on FD, 5th on DK/FDRFT tonight.
Don't Overthink This One
It’s all about Coors Field tonight, with the Rockies right-handed bats taking center stage. San Diego’s Eric Lauer makes his major league debut in the toughest of spots. He is a well developed pitcher for his age, but he doesn’t project as a dominant starter, he’s more of a middle of the rotation control pitcher. He has not been able to keep the ball on the ground in the minors, and that will not help him here tonight. Arenado is an elite hitter in every way, he doesn’t strike out and he hits the ball extremely hard against lefties. In 2017, he had a .534 wOBA and .420 ISO vs LHP and in the early going this year we’ve seen a 50% hard hit rate with a .357 ISO. This is the top hitter on the slate tonight.
Remarkable Consistency And Flawless Skills
It’s a wide open night for pitching and may not be completely necessary to pay all the way up at pitching, but Morton’s skills have him alone at the top. There are other pitchers with similar upside or better matchups, but what Morton has done since last year separates him from the pack. It’s been 367 days since Morton has allowed more than 4 ER in a regular season game, and his skills are out of sight so far this season. He has a 33% K rate, 6.1% walks, 60% ground balls and 26% hard hits allowed. There is just no way to beat a pitcher like this. He’s either striking batters out or getting soft ground balls. Though it’s not a high upside matchup for strikeouts, this is the best skill set on this slate.
Nice Price On DraftKings And FantasyDraft
Every once in a while, there will be a guy that stands out to me because of price, and Josh Bell is that guy tonight. He draws an excellent matchup against Jordan Zimmermann. Since the start of 2017, Zimmermann has a .377 wOBA with a 1.60 WHIP against left-handed hitters. He has a 41.6% hard contact rate and a 26.5% (not a typo) hard to soft contact ratio in that span. Bell has a .360 xwOBA with a .200 ISO and a 32.8% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017. Bell has a .552 xwOBA against the fastball speed that Zimmermann throws, and Zimmermann has thrown his fastball 40%+ to lefties since the start of 2017.
Load Up On FanDuel
It was just last week I talked about Zimmerman being too cheap on FanDuel, and while I don’t expect him to go off again, I do really like this spot for him. Ty Blach has logged 135 innings against righties since the start of 2017. He has a .353 wOBA with a 11.1% strikeout rate and a 17% hard to soft contact ratio. He also has a 1.48 WHIP and a 5.10 xFIP in that span. Since the start of 2017, Zimmerman has a .420 wOBA with a .307 ISO against left-handed pitching. He has a 43.7% hard contact rate in that span and a 161 wRC+. He has a 49.2% hard contact rate this season, but his .214 BABIP is currently hurting his overall numbers. He’s still really good and he’s too cheap for this matchup tonight.
Make Sure I'm In The Lineup
I’m really hoping the Rockies lineup comes out late tonight. I’d expect Noel Cuevas to get the start with a left-handed pitcher on the mound. He drew the start on Sunday against a lefty, and they didn’t call him up to sit on the bench. He has a .431 wOBA with a 154 wRC+ and a .238 ISO in 16 games at AAA this season. In 528 PA in AAA last season, he had a .362 wOBA with a 115 wRC+ and a .174 ISO. Eric Lauer will be making his Major League debut tonight. He finished 2017 in AA and only made three starts in AAA this season. Lauer shouldn’t be making his Major League debut in Coors. After reading scouting reports, he should actually be a pretty decent pitcher, but Coors is a tough place to make your first start.
Safer Option In This Spot
Tanner Roark is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate tonight. He’s pitching in one of the best ballparks for pitchers and should face five righties. The four lefties he will face are Panik, Belt, Crawford, and Blanco. Panik and Belt have been hitting righties very well this season, but the two others have a .031 and .038 ISO. Roark has a .255 wOBA with a 24.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters since the start of last season. He has an above average groundball rate, and a 4.9% hard to soft contact ratio. In that same span, he has a .352 wOBA with a 19.3% strikeout rate and a 15.4% hard to soft contact ratio to lefties. With the number of righties in this lineup, I really like this spot for Roark, and I think he’s a safer option on this slate.
Searching For Strikeouts
Tonight’s slate isn’t loaded with a ton of pitching options, so I’m looking for upside with my value guys. Vince Velasquez gives us some nice upside in this matchup with Arizona. The projected lineup has a .347 wOBA with a .201 ISO against righties, but it’s really just three guys with good numbers. Outside of Peralta, Goldschmidt, and Pollock, the other five projected starters have an average .225 wOBA. The projected lineup has a 27.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. After struggling a lot last season, Velasquez has pitched well in four starts. His SIERA is 3.34 and his WHIP is down to 1.36 this season. He’s limiting hard contact rate and has a 26.1% strikeout rate. It’s still a small sample size, but the numbers are trending in the right direction. I don’t think he’s safe tonight, but I’m willing to take the risk on this slate in tournaments.
Christian Villanueva (sore hamstring) scratched Monday; Cory Spangenberg replaces
Villanueva has been scratched from the San Diego Padres original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup with the Colorado Rockies due to hamstring soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Cory Spangenberg, who will play third base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, moving Jose Pirela, Carlos Asuaje, and Freddy Galvis all up on spot in the lineup. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Padres order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Chad Bettis this evening.
As reported by: Kevin Acee via Twitter