DFS Alerts
Tanner Roark struck out nine, but allowed two runs last time he faced the Mets
Tanner Roark has built a reputation as a contact manager who doesn’t strike out many batters. Despite no discernible change in his pitch mix, he’s struck out 25.4% of batters through three starts with a significant drop in his ground ball rate. These Mets pounded him for five runs and two HRs two starts back, but it was also his strikeout high for the season (nine) and his overall contact management has still been solid (four IFFBs already and a 4.4 Hard-Soft%. With the Mets right in the middle of the board with 4.06 implied runs, this is a spot where exposure to either side can be justified by the two HRs and nine strikeouts the last time they faced. Roark has some fairly significant splits. Left-handed batters have .358 wOBA against him since last year with right-handed batters 100 points lower and in fact, it was Asdrubal Cabrera (104 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Adrian Gonzalez (84 wRC+, .134 ISO) who got him in that start, the latter having done nothing since (-21 wRC+ last seven days). Michael Conforto (163 wRC+, .286 ISO) is the top bat as usual. Jay Bruce (129 wRC+, .264 ISO) has been dealing with a bit of a foot issue (3 wRC+ last seven days), but costs less than $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Adrian Gonzalez, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Tanner Roark
Vince Velasquez has pitched well in two starts (13 Ks, 2 BBs, 12.2 IP) since being roughed up by the Braves
Vince Velasquez has rebounded after a tough first start to strike out 13 of his last 48 batters, while completing at least six innings with 90+ pitches in each of his last two starts. Just as importantly, he’s walked just two. The Braves were the team to beat him up in his first start and it’s because of them he still has a 26.7 LD% and .362 BABIP, but his 2.1% Barrels/BBE is actually lowest on the board tonight. He’s pitched well, but anyone who’s followed his career knows that he can look great in one start and then terrible in another. The Braves have a 108 wRC+ with just an 18.7 K% vs RHP. Their 4.57 implied run line is second highest on the board. Although a small platoon split counting a 2017 in which he dealt with injuries, Velasquez’s xwOBA shows no split (.347 – .345). Right-handed batters actually have a slightly higher hard hit rate (36.5%) and lower ground ball rate (38.1%) against him since last season, but his numbers are still around average or slightly worst against lefties. Freddy Freeman (162 wRC+, .281 ISO, .432 xwOBA vs RHP since last season) is a top bat on most nights, never mind a small slate with the second highest implied run line. Preston Tucker (173 wRC+, .289 ISO, 48.3 Hard%) has been a pleasant surprise and still costs less than $3K on DraftKings. Ozzie Albies (99 wRC+, .174 ISO) and Kurt Suzuki (117 wRC+, .213 ISO) both have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week. Atlanta plays a bit more favorable for left-handed hitters. Velasquez may not be a terrible GPP play around the $7K mark if it looks like nobody is going to be on him because of Atlanta’s run line.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Kurt Suzuki, Preston Tucker Brandon McCarthy has a low ERA (3.31), but just a 6.1 SwStr% and has been hit hard (29.8 LD%) in the zone (93.7 Z-Contact%)
Brandon McCarthy struck out a season high five Phillies in his first start for the Braves. Considering his last two starts were in Colorado and Washington, a 17.9 K% doesn’t sound too bad, but even that comes with just a 6.1 SwStr%. The Phillies have not been very good against RHP (90 wRC+, 26.8 K%, 9.7 HR/FB) and the outlook might be slightly improved by the absence of Carlos Santana, but McCarthy is being hit hard in the zone (29.8 LD%, 93.7 Z-Contact%) with both a SIERA and FIP nearly a full run above his 3.31 ERA. The Phillies have the third highest implied run line on the seven game main slate at just 4.43. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of offensive fire power on this board. McCarthy has no real split, which is fantastic news for Rhys Hoskins (167 wRC+, .312 ISO, 42.4 Hard% vs RHP career), who has a 50% hard hit rate over the last week. Behind him, Nick Williams (114 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Scott Kingery (103 wRC+, .200 ISO) have shown the most power against RHP, the latter in the two hole tonight, the former costing less than less than $3K on either site. McCarthy can be run on, good news for Cesar Hernandez (113 wRC+) and Odubel Herrera (107 wRC+), along with Kingery at the top of the order.
Other tagged players: Nick Williams, Scott Kingery, Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera Big Power in a Big Ballpark
J.D. Martinez is one of the best hitters in baseball when facing a left-handed pitcher. Since the beginning of last season, he owns a .508 xwOBA and a ridiculous .490 ISO. Basically, every other hit that he has against southpaws goes for extra bases. He has plenty of upside, even in a ballpark as big as Angels Stadium. Tonight he squares off against Tyler Skaggs, who has allowed a .335 xwOBA to righties.
Best Cash Game Option at Shortstop
The Dodgers didn’t get the memo that Petco Park is a pitcher’s ballpark. They have scored at least seven runs in back-to-back games and could easily hit that mark again tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against Tyson Ross, who has struggled with left-handed hitters throughout his career. Kyle Seager is always a great cash game play because he has power, he gets on base, and he has speed.
Value at a Thin Position
Third base is downright ugly tonight and I’m not afraid to say it. Rather than overpaying for a player in a bad matchup, I’ll take savings with Daniel Descalso. He is close to the minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he has been hitting fifth in the Diamondbacks’ lineup when they face a right-handed pitcher. Tonight they square off against Chris Stratton, who has allowed a .344 xwOBA to left-handed hitters.
Trust the Advanced Metrics
Robbie Ray hasn’t been quite as dominant yet this season. He has a 5.74 ERA with a walk rate of 15%. However, his advanced numbers are much more appealing. His SIERA is under four and he still owns an elite strikeout rate of 32%. We saw Patrick Corbin pitch a complete game shutout against the Giants last night and Ray has just as much talent than Corbin, but he’ll come at significantly lower ownership.
Unreal Start to the Season
Gerrit Cole has always had the talent, but for whatever reason, he hasn’t been able to become an elite pitcher. He has clearly found something in Houston, posting a 1.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 47% in his first three starts with his new team. A matchup against the Mariners isn’t perfect, but this isn’t the most hitter-friendly ballpark around. Cole has more strikeout upside than any pitcher on the slate, which makes him the top target at the position.
J.A. Happ has struck out nine in consecutive starts and the Royals have a 20.9 K-BB% (4.4 HR/FB) vs LHP
J.A. Happ has struck out exactly nine in each of his last two starts and faces a Kansas City offense with a 20.9 K-BB% and 4.4 HR/FB vs LHP this season. He should be considered a top arm on the day slate. His opponent, Ian Kennedy, has gone exactly six innings in each of his three starts with a 22.2 K% that’s right around his career average. He’s not in a terrible spot without much of a platoon split against a lineup without Josh Donaldson. However, he has a diminished 7.5 SwStr% so far, generates fly balls less than 40% of the time and has allowed hard contact on more than 38% of batted balls to batters from either side of the plate since last season. Curtis Granderson (116 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is an affordable bat. Justin Smoak (124 wRC+, .267 ISO) could bring some thunder to this matchup. Teoscar Hernandez (160 wRC+, .348 xwOBA, .362 ISO) costs less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Curtis Granderson, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak Carson Fulmer (13.4 career BB%) expected to struggle against red-hot A's (157 team wRC+ last seven days)
Andrew Triggs has a career 20.8 K% and 10.2 SwStr% to go along with a 51.1 GB% in 137.1 major league innings. That’s an above average pitcher. He’s increased both the strikeout rate (25.7%) and ground ball rate (58.1%) through three starts this season, but both his swinging strike rate (9.4%) and hard hit rate (37.2%) are not as strong. He faces a White Sox lineup with a 102 wRC+ and 14.6 HR/FB against RHP, but they were expected to be bad and have been overall in the last seven days (52 wRC+, 32.4 K%). Triggs is certainly an option at $8.5K or less on either site, but beware that he has yet to complete six innings yet and has faced exactly 22 batters in each start with a high of 96 pitches. Yoan Moncada (124 wRC+, .374 xwOBA, .216 ISO, 44.7 Hard% vs RHP career) might be the lone bat of interest here for just $3.6K on DraftKings. The A’s tie for the top implied run line on the early slate, just above five. Carson Fulmer’s issues stem from an inability to throw strikes, rather than hard contact though. He walked six last time out and has a 13.4 BB% in 44.2 major league innings. While his hard hit rate has been exactly 40% in each of this year’s two starts, it’s at 27.5% for his career. While RHBs have a .250 wOBA against him in his small sample of a career, the xwOBA is 118 points higher, essentially giving him no split at all by that metric. A 36.4 GB% has been closer to average in the minors. While the A’s have five batters in the projected lineup all with a 125 or better wRC+ and .190+ ISO vs RHP since last season (Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Matt Joyce), it’s been Davis (247 wRC+, 50 Hard%), Lowrie (246 wRC+, 43.5 Hard%), Chapman (168 wRC+, 47.1 Hard%) and Stephen Piscotty (226 wRC+, 45 Hard%) along with Mark Canha (191 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%) who have all been smoking baseballs over the last week. They have a team 157 wRC+ over the last week (18.5 HR/FB). Lineups for this game have not yet been confirmed.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Carson Fulmer, Andrew Triggs, Yoan Moncada, Matt Joyce, Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha Left-handed batters have a .413 wOBA (41 Hard%) against Tyler Mahle (10 ERs, four HRs last two starts).
Zack Davies managed contact exceptionally well last season, but did not miss many bats. So far this season, he has a 26.1 K% and 11.3 SwStr% with a few less sinkers, but not much of an arsenal change otherwise. However, his ground ball rate has dropped 16 points (34.1%) with a hard hit rate above 50% through three starts. He’s allowed four HRs in 16 innings. He allowed 20 in nearly 200 all last season. Right-handed batters have all four HRs with a 60 Hard%. The Reds have just a 74 wRC+ with a 25.4 K% and 7.1 HR/FB vs RHP this season as Joey Votto (160 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP since last season) continues to struggle (93 wRC+, 23.8 Hard% last seven days). Davies has no real platoon split since last season. Jesse Winker (153 wRC+, .202 ISO) is a cheap leadoff bat. Adam Duvall (83 wRC+, .210 ISO) is your right-handed power threat. Tyler Mahle may have gotten away with a few pitches in his first start against the Cubs. At least this was the theme of more than one RotoGraphs article examining the outing. He’s allowed five earned runs and two home runs in each of his two outings since. He throws an average 93 mph fastball 60% of the time. The Brewers have a 4.88 implied run line that’s third best on the board. Left-handed batters have crushed Mahle over his short career. Their .413 wOBA is supported by a .416 xwOBA and 41 Hard%. Christian Yelich (124 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since last season) returns to the lineup. Eric Thames (139 wRC+, .303 ISO, 43.3 Hard%) and Travis Shaw (129 wRC+, .247 ISO) join him as top bats on the slate. Each of the first four batters in the lineup, including Domingo Santana (122 wRC+, .205 ISO) have a hard hit rate above 36% against RHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich, Domingo Santana, Tyler Mahle, Joey Votto, Zach Davies, Adam Duvall, Jesse Winker Kevin Gausman has thrown more splitters since his first start, gotten better results
Matt Boyd (18) and Kevin Gausman (17) combined to allow 35 HRs to RHBs in 2017 and the two face off in Detroit in just one of two games where both teams have an implied run line above four this afternoon. The Orioles have a 110 wRC+ with a 28.9 K%, 11.6 BB% and 17.1 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Boyd is off to a strange start with a SIERA and xFIP more than four full runs above his 1.38 ERA through two starts, but a 10.6 K% that matches his 10.5 SwStr%. Significant adjustments are coming. Boyd has an 18.2 K% and 9.5 SwStr% for his career. Right-handed batters have a .351 wOBA and 36.6 Hard% (35.7 GB%) against him since last year. Manny Machado (128 wRC+, .276 ISO, 44.6 Hard% vs LHP since last season) is the obvious bat. His .399 xwOBA is 36 points higher than actual vs LHP since the start of last season. Two cheap, but competent righties are Tim Beckham (110 wRC+, .182 ISO) and Danny Valencia (118 wRC+, .191 ISO). While both have a hard hit rate above 38% against southpaws since last season, each has just a 16.7 Hard% overall in the last seven days. Gausman allowed three HRs in his first start to the Twins, but has allowed just one with 10 strikeouts (48 batters) over his last two starts against the Yankees and Blue Jays. Increased splitter usage resulted in a huge turnaround in the second half of last season and he’s picked that up again after using it less than 20% of the time in his first start. The Tigers have a 76 wRC+ against RHP with just a 4.3 HR/FB. Helpful to Gausman in that way, but they also have just a 19.3 K%. Gausman’s 12.7 SwStr% suggests improvement to come in his 21.4 K%. This is a spot where Gausman can certainly be used at a very reasonable price below $7.5K on either site against a low powered team. Jeimer Candelario (108 wRC+, .166 ISO) and Nicholas Castellanos (103 wRC+, .185 ISO, 43.9 Hard%) have been the most competent bats against RHP since last season. Gausman has a career reverse split, though batters from either side have a wOBA and xwOBA above .340 against him since last season.
Other tagged players: Matthew Boyd, Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Danny Valencia, Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos Cole Hamels has gone to the cutter 28% of the time to generate more swings and misses
After two terrible starts against Boston, Jake Faria turned it around against the Phillies (5.1 IP – 2 H – 1 ER – 2 BB – 7 K – 19 BF). A concern might be that the 83 pitches thrown in his first start remains a season high, but it’s encouraging to see a better performance recently, in which his swinging strike rate was a season high 12.8%. He’s in another strong spot tonight, facing the Rangers in Tampa Bay. Texas has a mid-80s wRC+ and 24% strikeout rate both on the road and vs RHP this season. Faria is very cheap on either site, but he doesn’t seem likely for six innings. He’s averaged 5.4 innings per start since entering the league. While the Rangers don’t have a “must roster”, Faria’s xwOBA (.341) is 62 points higher than his actual against LHBs (.279) in his career. Joey Gallo (120 wRC+, .336 ISO, 46 Hard%, 55.6 FB% vs RHP since last season) has a 57.1 Hard% over the last week. Shin-soo Choo (106 wRC+, .196 ISO, 40.1 Hard%) has an xwOBA (.379) that’s 43 points higher than actual against RHP since last season. The Rays will face a third straight Texas left-hander and even a diminished Cole Hamels is the best of the bunch. The good news is that the velocity has ticked up slightly in each of his last three starts, to where he was sitting just a mile per hour below last year’s average (92.3) in his last start (91.2). What Hamels has done this year, is increase his cutter usage (28%) over his sinker (16.8%) and other fastball (18.6%) and has generated a 9+ SwStr% in all four starts (12+ in each of his first three). Hamels has walked 11 and allowed seven HRs to 98 batters faced this year, but there is nothing in this Tampa Bay lineup that players should fear. PlateIQ shows this confirmed lineup having a .307 wOBA, .161 ISO and 24.6 K% vs LHP since last season. Hamels is a high risk, high upside play on the afternoon slate, but costs $2.4K more on DraftKings than he does on FanDue (almost twice the next largest price disparity – $1.3K). Players can certainly hunt for a homer with C.J. Cron (127 wRC+, .271 ISO, 43.1 Hard% vs LHP since last season). Cron has a 176 wRC+ over the last week and also has a .501 xwOBA against cutters in 45 PAs since 2016 (PlateIQ). RHBs have a .347 xwOBA with a 38.4 Hard% against Hamels since last season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: C.J. Cron, Jacob Faria, Joey Gallo Upside In Multiple Ways
Steven Matz has had a terrible time holding runners, and with Trea Turner already possessing big stolen base upside, his projection gets an added boost tonight. Outside of the stolen base potential, Turner has shown good contact skills against left-handed pitching, and hits at the top of one of the higher projected scoring lineups tonight. He can pile up points in a lot of different ways.
Two pitchers with extreme platoon splits (Kyle Feeland, Chad Kuhl) face off in early game in Pittsburgh
The Rockies at Pirates game is only available on the main afternoon slate on FanDuel with both teams sitting right around four runs, putting both in the middle of the board for the six afternoon games. Kyle Freeland has increased his strikeout rate six points to just above league average (21.7%), but still has a below average 8.2 SwStr%. His splits are incredibly stark. He strikes out LHBs at an elite rate (27.8%), but with just a 34.6 GB% when they do make contact. Against RHBs, he has just a 2.7 K-BB%, but a 58.3 GB%. Considering the ground ball rate and power suppressing park, there are few desirable bats on this side and probably not enough strikeouts for Freeland with just one LHB in the lineup. A potential value play could be Sean Rodriguez (115 wRC+, .228 ISO, 48.4 Hard% vs LHP since last season), who costs just $2.4K at second base. Chad Kuhl is facing a Rockies’ team with a 48 wRC+ and 2.4 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. He’s a hard thrower who doesn’t miss many bats though (7.6 SwStr%) and doesn’t fool anybody (43.4 Z-O-Swing%). While the xwOBA is 30 points lower at .351 than his actual wOBA against LHBs since last season (.381), this is still a pitcher who struggles greatly with his platoon splits. Lefties have a 38.7 Hard% and 35.9 GB% against him and the park plays more neutral towards left-handed power. Charlie Blackmon (151 wRC+, .311 ISO, 41.1 Hard%) is in a great spot here and carries a 119 wRC+ on the road since last season. He has a 266 wRC+ over the last week. Carlos Gonzalez (104 wRC+, .195 ISO) afford some cheaper exposure to a left-handed bat here, but he has just a 41 wRC+ over the last week and 55 wRC+ on the road since last season.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Kyle Freeland, Chad Kuhl, Sean Rodriguez