DFS Alerts
Great Upside For The Price
A lot of my favorite value plays all come from the same game tonight. The Brewers get a left-handed pitcher tonight, and in a small sample size, Dillon Peters has struggled with right-handed hitters. He has a 1.47 WHIP with a 4.57 xFIP and a .341 wOBA against right-handed hitters since being called up last season. His OBP was .357 to righties in that span, and with the 1.45 HR/9, I want my value guys to have power and to be able to get on base. Jesus Aguilar should draw the start tonight, and is one of the top value plays, if not the top value play on the slate. He has a .390 wOBA with a 140 wRC+ in his last 112 at bats against left-handed pitching. He also has a 53.9% hard hit rate with a .223 ISO and .926 OPS.
Top Pitcher on a Short Slate
Zack Greinke gets the nod as the top pitching option on a short five game Thursday night slate. His results haven’t been great overall through his first three starts, and there’s still chatter out there as a result of his decreased velocity in the spring. I still don’t think there’s major cause for long-term concern here, as he does have a 21/1 K/BB ratio in his three starts. A cushy matchup against a weak Giants offense should get him rolling tonight.
Run Support Should Be There
It’s sometimes hard to define value on a small slate, and on a one pitcher site like FanDuel, you can pretty much play who you want on this slate. The Marlins have beat up a couple of pitchers this season, and they continue to outperform the numbers. With that said, I’m going to keep picking on them, and I really like this spot for Chase Anderson. Since the start of 2017, the Marlins projected lineup has a .132 ISO and Justin Bour is the only hitter with an ISO over .175 against right-handed pitching. They have six starters with high groundball rates, and six guys with strikeout rates over 19.5% in that span. Anderson had great success against left-handed hitters last season, but he struggled with right-handed power bats. It’s a good thing we don’t have to worry about that with the Marlins.
Is It Really That Risky At This Price?
Let me start by saying that this is a DraftKings/FantasyDraft play only. Any time we have a pitcher at minimum salary, I think that pitcher is in play for tournaments. We have some good stacks on this small slate and playing Sims will allow you to load up on bats. He posted a 5.05 SIERA with a 1.51 WHIP in 57.2 innings last season. The strikeout rate and swinging strike rate were below average, but he’s shown above average strikeout ability in the minors. He has an above average changeup and curveball, and even in a small sample size, he was able to generate swinging strikes with it last season. This projected lineup has a .345 wOBA with a .191 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but they have a 29.5% strikeout rate. I’m not saying Sims will be clean here, I do however like his chances for 10-14 DK/FTD points, which will be great if the bats go off.
Joe Panik scratched Wednesday; Kelby Tomlinson replaces
Panik has been scratched from the San Francisco Giants original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Kelby Tomlinson, who will play second base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, moving Hunter Pence all the way up to the second spot, while Brandon Belt also slides up one batting position to sixth. It goes without saying that there are some noteworthy changes to this Giants order, so be sure to check out their updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Robbie Ray this evening.
As reported by: Alex Pavlovic via Twitter
Mike Leake has allowed three HRs with a 52 Hard% against RHBs this year
Mike Leake has allowed seven earned runs in 18 innings, but he’s allowed three HRs and walked more batters (nine) than he’s struck out (eight) and has just a 5.9 SwStr%. That’s low, even for him. His ground ball rate would be a career low 41.7% and his hard hit rate a career high 45%. In other words, it’s all smoke and mirrors (.211 BABIP, 85.9 LOB%). His 93.3 mph aEV is highest on the board and only Robbie Ray exceeds his 53.3% 95+ mph EV. All three HRs have been surrendered to RHBs, who have a 52 Hard% and 36 GB%, which spells double danger against the Astros. With a mediocre 4.3 implied run line and Leake’s reputation as a ground baller against a predominantly same-handed lineup, perhaps Houston bats will go under-owned tonight. They shouldn’t be. Strongly consider paying up for the big three (George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa) if possible as all have exceeded a 120 wRC+ and .180 ISO against same handed pitching since last year. Consider complimenting with a more affordable Josh Reddick (136 wRC+, .193 ISO) or even cheaper Marwin Gonzalez (146 wRC+, .221 ISO), though the latter has an xwOBA 44 points below his actual against right-handers since last season. This lineup is not yet confirmed.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez
Gerrit Cole has pitched exactly seven innings with at least 11 strikeouts in all three starts for the Astros
Gerrit Cole has quickly become the premium arm on the slate. He just needed the Houston staff to tell him to throw his slider more and his sinker less. More strikeouts, fewer groundballs. Who cares about a 22.9 GB% when you strikeout half the batters you face (46.8 K%, 17.5 SwStr%). His .238 xwOBA is actually only third best on this board, but he’s gone exactly seven innings with at least 11 strikeouts in each of his three starts. The Mariners are a step up from the Rangers and Padres, the only two teams he’s faced, but the good news is that he’s struck out 58.1% of LHBs this season, a side he’s traditionally had problems with (.330+ wOBA each of the last two years). Cole is still at a price point $10-12K, where his performance could regress a bit (who would expect him to keep this up) and still remain valuable. The problem is that he’s likely to be extremely popular, especially on a small slate even with other talented pitchers on the board. Premium subscribers can check out the Projected Ownership page to find out how popular that may and look for potential pivots.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Just one game with any risk in Kevin's updated forecast
There is just one game with any real weather related risk in Kevin’s updated forecast this evening and weather may not be the only issue they’re dealing with. Premium players can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for an in-depth report.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time J.D. Martinez is a hitter a LHP never wants to see at the plate (229 wRC+, .485 ISO, .503 xwOBA, 53.4 Hard% since last year)
Tyler Skaggs is off to a nice start, striking out a quarter of the batters he’s faced with a 12.7 SwStr%. He’s been getting swings and misses in the zone (78.7 Z-Contact%) and seems to have batters off balance (29.8 Z-O-Swing%). Unfortunately, when batters have made contact, they have a 90.7 mph aEV and 47.7% 95+ mph EV, which brings his xwOBA up 79 points from his actual to a league average .324 and it’s just impossible to roster a pitcher against a Boston lineup that just doesn’t strike out (17.5% vs LHP, 15.4% over the last week). The good news is that Skaggs hasn’t allowed an xwOBA in the .335 range to batters from either side of the plate. Righties don’t particularly hammer him and it’s a favorable park. The Red Sox didn’t care last night as they hit several balls over the wall, including three by Mookie Betts (146 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP since last season). They also boast the most dangerous hitter against LHP on the planet right now: J.D. Martinez (229 wRC+, .485 ISO, .503 xwOBA, 53.4 Hard%). This lineup is not yet confirmed.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Tyler Skaggs Rick Porcello has altered his pitch mix and has not allowed a HR yet with a 66.7 GB% vs RHBs.
Rick Porcello is off to a great start (1.82 ERA, 3.05 SIERA, 22.7 K%, .190 xwOBA). While a 7.5 SwStr% puts a bit of a damper on the strikeout rate, his .190 xwOBA is supported by just a 19.6% 95+ mph EV. He’s throwing more sinkers, more changeups and more sliders and with a strikeout rate right around league average each of the previous three years, perhaps the SwStr% will improve. After allowing 38 home runs last season, one would think he made a conscious decision to not do that again, thus the change in pitch selection. So far, he hasn’t allowed a single homer. He’s been especially efficient against RHBs so far (66.7 GB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft%) and has been essentially league average against them since last season (.329 wOBA, .316 xwOBA, 34.7 Hard%, 46.2 GB%). The Angels have a 130 wRC+ with just a 16.8 K% vs RHP. There may not be a lot of upside on either side of this matchup with some costly Los Angeles bats potentially providing a lot of ground balls.
Robbie Ray has a 32.4 K% even with less velocity, but 56.8% of contact has a 95+ mph exit velocity
Robbie Ray’s continued lack of velocity is a concern. He’s consistently been a mile and a half below last season with a league average 93 mph fastball at this point. He’s compensated by throwing more sliders and curves to continue to generate a 32.4 K% (12.7 SwStr%), perhaps learning from Greinke, but he’s lasted five innings or less with three or more runs in two of three starts and walked five in the start where he threw six one-run innings. Statcast supports a .360 xwOBA with a 91.1 mph aEV (the ball is coming back at him almost as hard as he throws it) and 56.8% 95+ mph EV. More than half of his contact has been 95 miles per hour or better. That’s tough to survive even when striking out one-third of batters. Against the Giants (69 wRC+, 24.9 K% vs LHP) players might want to continue to bet on his high upside arm, but at a cost of either $9.5K or $10K, it’s a significant risk. These Giants got to him in San Francisco last time out and could do so again. Austin Jackson (141 wRC+, .171 ISO vs LHP since last year) costs less than $3K on either site and has been leading off against southpaws. Buster Posey (162 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Andrew McCutchen (167 wRC+, .316 ISO) have hammered lefties. Evan Longoria (86 wRC+, .180 ISO) has not, but does have the hottest bat in the lineup (196 wRC+, 53.9 Hard% over the last week). This lineup has not yet been confirmed.
Other tagged players: Austin Jackson, Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Robbie Ray The Arizona Diamondbacks have the top implied run line on the board (4.7)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have the top offensive expectations on the board (4.7 implied runs). Chris Stratton’s 2.60 ERA is predicated on a .213 BABIP despite 34.8 LD% without a single infield fly in three starts. He hasn’t allowed a HR yet, pitching in three different west coast parks. Statcast estimates a .367 xwOBA some 134 points above his actual at this point with a 90.7 mph aEV. He’s walked as many (seven) as he’s struck out over his last two starts. It’s not a very potent lineup against RHP, but David Peralta (117 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP since last season) is showing signs of life (182 wRC+, 54.6 Hard% last seven days) and a low cost Alex Avila (129 wRC+, .203 ISO, .422 xwOBA, 54.5 Hard%) just hits the crap out of baseballs thrown by right-handers. While LHBs have a wOBA (.327) much higher than RHBs (.283) since last year, remove a favorable home park and batters from either side have an xwOBA in the .340 range. Paul Goldschmidt (136 wRC+, .249 ISO) and A.J. Pollock (105 wRC+, .194 ISO) are expensive bats, the latter not providing much better than league average production against same handed pitching. Lineups for this game have not yet been confirmed.
Other tagged players: Chris Stratton, Alex Avila, Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock Carlos Carrasco's 11.5 SwStr% should alleviate concerns of an 18.2 K%, but Minnesota offense is more potent than some may realize.
After being roughed up in his first start, Carlos Carrasco has pitched more towards expectations in his most recent two starts against weaker competition (Royals and Tigers), but his last start includes a complete game. His 18.2 K% should not be a concern with an 11.5 SwStr% and it might even be an advantage if players are going to be cautious right now. His cost is within the same range as his opponents, but performance expectations should be similar. Berrios manages contact better, but Carrasco has overcome hard contact issues in recent seasons and has average 6.1 innings per start over the last two calendar years. When considering matchups, these offenses are pretty close. Both are fairly potent. Joe Mauer (124 wRC+, .127 ISO, 40.6 Hard%, .403 xwOBA against RHP since last season) is the only one of the first seven batters in the Minnesota lineup with an ISO below .200 vs RHP since last season. Consider projected ownership rates for these pitchers and if it looks like one side is garnering much more attention than the other, a case can be made for the opposition, though with Gerrit Cole on the mound, it’s possible both of these arms are ignored in tough spots.
Other tagged players: Joe Mauer Jose Berrios has a 79.6 mph aEV and .228 xwOBA against, but his 10.6 SwStr% can't support a 32 K%
Jose Berrios has not allowed a run in two of his three outings this season. The first a complete game and the most recent, a season high 11 strikeout performance. In between, Seattle got him for five runs in 4.2 innings, but he still struck out seven without a walk. This will be his first warm weather start and a 10.6 SwStr% suggests a 32 K% might not be here to stay. There’s a chance he could be slightly over-valued against a good Cleveland offense, who are just starting to show it (143 wRC+, 19.4 HR/FB, 34.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week) with only Gerrit Cole priced higher. On the other hand, he’s been the top contact manager on the board (.228 xwOBA, 79.6 mph aEV, 18.4% 95+ mph EV). This is a tough spot in an unknown park where just a small bit of exposure or a fade can be justified. Michael Brantley (127 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP since last season) has returned to the lineup smoking, with a 312 wRC+ and 61.5 Hard% over 13 PAs. He still costs less than $4K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley Steven Matz has a fluky 28.3 K% with just a 6.4 SwStr% with a 17.1% Barrels/BBE that's highest on the board
Steven Matz has had decent surface results, but the underlying numbers are a little concerning. He had a 2.2 SwStr% in the start where he struck out eight of these Nationals, giving him just a 6.4% mark with his 28.3 K% this season. He has a .194 BABIP with a 12.5 LD% despite not getting batters to chase out of the zone as opposed to swinging at strikes (44.5 Z-O-Swing%). Statcast features a .367 xwOBA and a board high 17.1% Barrels/BBE for hi this year. Though he dealt with an injury last season, right-handed batters have a Statcast verified .371 wOBA against him since last season with a 35.4 Hard%. If you’re considering Bryce Harper however, Matz has grounded lefties (60 GB%, 22.8 Hard%). While the absence of Anthony Rendon is a big blow here, Ryan Zimmerman (151 wRC+, .295 ISO vs LHP since 2017) costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. He has just an 8 wRC+ over the last week, but a 64.7 Hard% to go along with it. Howie Kendrick (133 wRC+, .180 ISO, .433 xwOBA) bats second and costs just $3.5K on DraftKings. Trea Turner (81 wRC+, .075 ISO) has just not hit left-handers for some reason, but should he reach base, Mets pitchers are easy to run on, which the Nationals love to take advantage of.
Other tagged players: Howie Kendrick, Bryce Harper, Steven Matz, Trea Turner