DFS Alerts
Simply Too Cheap on FanDuel
Sometimes we get early season pricing inefficiencies due to small sample size fluke. That is the case with Ryan Zimmerman on FanDuel. He is priced as if his .121 batting average is a cause for concern, but his 46% hard hit rate, .150 BABIP and 0% infield fly balls make it clear that this is nothing more than short term variance. In 2017, he struck out just 16.1% of the time with posting a .425 wOBA on 43% hard hits. Take the savings here.
Don't Forget About Me
With teammate Mookie Betts coming off a 3-HR night and Mike Trout on the other side, be sure not to forget about the guy who absolutely demolishes left-handed pitching. In 389 PA since 2015 against left-handed pitching, J.D. Martinez has a 49% hard hit rate with 42% fly balls leading to a .313 ISO and 165 wRC+. There is some strikeout risk against Tyler Skaggs, but Skaggs allows a lot of hard contact to right-handed bats, and I don’t anyone on this slate, Trout and Betts included with more upside than Martinez.
Tonight's Top Offense
On this pitching heavy slate, offense is a little tougher to come by. The Diamondbacks look like the best team to target against Chris Stratton. Stratton has always had low strikeout ability with questionable control against left-handed batters. Peralta should find himself in the leadoff spot at a nice salary tonight and so far this season he has a .413 wOBA on the back of a high 43% hard hit rate. In 2017, he struck out at just a 16.8% clip against righties while hitting the ball hard 36% of the time. A strong cash game building block and key piece of an Arizona stack or mini stack.
Targeting Power Upside
Boston’s bats will likely be under-owned tonight. They are playing on the west coast, which means the lineup will come out later. Their primary hitters are expensive. Tyler Skaggs is a pitcher who appears poised to take a step forward in 2018. All of those factors will keep Boston’s ownership down, but this is a team that can explode on any given night, as we saw on Tuesday. Skaggs is a traditional splits LHP who will struggle more against right-handed power, and that’s what Boston offers. J.D. Martinez has made a career out of hammering lefties, and Mookie Betts returned and was locked in last night. This is one of the rare times that Boston will be a sneaky stack in GPPs, and I like that approach this evening.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Hanley Ramirez
Unable to Plug the Leak(e)
Mike Leake was a serviceable major league pitcher for a long time, but his skills are eroding in a hurry. So far this season, he has allowed a .435 wOBA to right-handed hitters to go along with a laughable 52% hard contact rate. We are obviously dealing with a small sample size for 2018, but this is a trend that started back into last season, where he allowed more hard contact to same-handed batters. His ground ball rate is declining, and he has never been a high strikeout pitcher. Houston’s offense has been very disappointing so far this season, but this is a juicy spot for their right-handed power bats to get back on track. I love the upside here.
Attacking a High Hard Contact Rate
Rick Porcello has been solid to start the year for the Red Sox, but I’m still not a long-term buyer. He simply gets by with his solid control, but he allows far too much hard contact for sustained ace-like success. He allowed a 41% hard contact rate to LHBs and a 36% hard contact rate to RHBs a year ago, and his ground ball rate was below league average. This Angels lineup carries a ton of thump, and I like the stack potential here at likely low ownership. Kole Calhoun is a nice affordable piece of a stack and benefits from hitting from the left side, where Porcello’s weaknesses are more pronounced. All the other power hitters are in play as well, with Kinsler and Trout taking priority for me.
Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Kole Calhoun Risk/Reward Value on the Cheap
Steven Matz struggled with injuries last year, and it showed in his results. He is always going to be inconsistent, and sometimes the game gets away from him in the first inning. However, if he is able to start the game in a groove, he has the potential to put up very solid numbers, especially when you consider his affordable price tag. His strikeout stuff appears to be there in the early going, as he has logged 17 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings in his first three starts. I wouldn’t go near him in a cash game, but he has the most upside of the affordable pitching options this evening.
Top Pitcher on the Board
Gerrit Cole has been exceptional through his first three starts as a member of the Astros, striking out at least 11 batters in all of them and allowing just three total runs in the process. Houston is giving him more freedom to use his breaking ball, and the results have been exceptional. Seattle has a decent offense, but they are not necessarily a team we need to fear. Until he shows us otherwise, Cole has to be considered one of the best in the league right now, and he’s clearly the best pitcher on tonight’s slate.
Wednesday's STL-CHC game postponed due to inclement weather
The matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs on Wednesday afternoon has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the day. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on tomorrow, April 19, which is a mutual day off for both clubs and will begin at 1:20 pm central time. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points for today’s slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: the Chicago Cubs via Twitter
Cheap Bats To Target On DraftKings
While the Braves aren’t as cheap on FanDuel, they’re in a great spot to take advantage on DraftKings. Vince Velasquez has really struggled with left-handed hitters since the start of 2017. He has a 1.64 WHIP with a .362 wOBA in 42 innings against left-handed hitters in that span. Inciarte, Markakis, and Tucker are all very playable tonight. Tucker has a .526 xwOBA with a .333 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Markakis has a .406 xwOBA against righties this season. Inciarte is off to a slow start, but he’s in the leadoff spot and this is one of my favorite games to target tonight.
Cheap Bats To Target On DraftKings
While the Braves aren’t as cheap on FanDuel, they’re in a great spot to take advantage on DraftKings. Vince Velasquez has really struggled with left-handed hitters since the start of 2017. He has a 1.64 WHIP with a .362 wOBA in 42 innings against left-handed hitters in that span. Inciarte, Markakis, and Tucker are all very playable tonight. Tucker has a .526 xwOBA with a .333 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Markakis has a .406 xwOBA against righties this season. Inciarte is off to a slow start, but he’s in the leadoff spot and this is one of my favorite games to target tonight.
Cheap Bats To Target On DraftKings
While the Braves aren’t as cheap on FanDuel, they’re in a great spot to take advantage on DraftKings. Vince Velasquez has really struggled with left-handed hitters since the start of 2017. He has a 1.64 WHIP with a .362 wOBA in 42 innings against left-handed hitters in that span. Inciarte, Markakis, and Tucker are all very playable tonight. Tucker has a .526 xwOBA with a .333 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Markakis has a .406 xwOBA against righties this season. Inciarte is off to a slow start, but he’s in the leadoff spot and this is one of my favorite games to target tonight.
Winning In Different Ways
Carrasco has looked a bit different so far this season with a drop in strikeouts, but he has been no less effective, with his elite control and low hard hits. We have four straight seasons from him with a strikeout rate of 25% or higher, so there’s no reason his current 18.2% K rate shouldn’t be expected to rise. But, even if for some reason he continues to lean towards contact, he is going to be very hard to beat with no walks and very few balls being squared up against him. I am confident enough in his long term track record and skills to continue using him in both cash games and tournaments, though I don’t recommend going all-in on him in GPP’s until we see the strikeouts return.
Advanced Numbers Look A Lot Better
We don’t have a lot of value options on FanDuel, and Kole Calhoun has some really nice upside against Rick Porcello. Kole Calhoun has a .267 wOBA this season, but his xwOBA is .387. His biggest downside has been the strikeouts this season, but he’s making good contact right now. Porcello has a 1.77 HR/9 against left-handed hitters since the start last season, and a massive 39.5% hard contact rate in that span.
Believe In These Skills
Cole has been the best pitcher in the league through three starts with an incredible 36 strikeouts in 21 innings with just four walks. His opponent gets a little tougher tonight, and I’m not assuming we’ll see another double-digit strikeout game, but there is no reason to fade this current hot streak. He has long had the pedigree and stuff for this type of breakout with his 96-mph fastball being backed up by a strong slider and curveball. He has ramped up his slider usage this season, and is getting 30% whiffs on his curveball. Even if Seattle makes more contact than we’ve seen so far, he has ground ball ability to lean back on. There are enough good pitchers that he is not a must-play, but he is the best play.