DFS Alerts
Overlooked Value in the Outfield
The A’s are one of the sneakiest offenses to target tonight. The Blue Jays, Rays, and Mets are getting all of the buzz, which should help keep Oakland’s ownership at a fairly low level. They draw an exploitable matchup against Reynaldo Lopez, who has allowed a .375 xwOBA to left-handed hitters since the beginning of last season. Matt Joyce should be leading off and he is dirt cheap across the industry.
Load up on this Offense
Jeremy Hellickson was one of our favorite pitchers to pick on last season. In 30 starts, he finished with a 5.37 SIERA and a strikeout rate of only 14%. He allowed a .345+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. A Mets’ stack is certainly viable here and Michael Conforto deserves consideration as an elite play in all formats. He mashes right-handed pitching to the tune of a .394 xwOBA and a .290 ISO.
Taking Advantage of an Opportunity
Josh Donaldson will not be in the lineup tonight, which should open the door for Teoscar Hernandez to bat second. He’s affordable across the industry and the Blue Jays have the best matchup of the slate. Erik Skoglund is a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact. Toronto comes into this game with the highest implied run total.
Big Favorite at Home
Jaime Garcia is a tease when it comes to fantasy baseball. Every single year, he will flash upside for a few starts and then implode right when we start believing in him. While I’m certainly a little scared about that, there are a lot of positives for Garcia. He is a large favorite at home and he is facing a Royals’ offense that doesn’t hit southpaws well. They also have a high strikeout rate against lefties, which is not something that we’ve seen from the Royals over the last few years.
Clear Number One
Targeting pitchers against the Nationals isn’t something that I do often in DFS, but Jacob deGrom is clearly the number one pitching option of the slate. He has been sharp in his first three starts of the season, posting a 3.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He can keep the ball on the ground and he’s always been good at limiting hard contact. He also has an elite track record against the Nationals in his career, holding their current roster to a .264 wOBA with a strikeout rate over 30%.
Monday’s STL-CHC game postponed due to inclement weather
The matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs on Monday night has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the day and wind chills in the 20s later this evening. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Saturday, July 21, as part of a split doubleheader and will begin at 12:05 pm central time. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points for today’s slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: the Chicago Cubs via Twitter
Bet on Talent
Contextual factors aren’t working in Nola’s favor on Monday night as he’ll take on a contact heavy Braves team at hitter friendly SunTrust Park. Lack of strong matchup + a high price tag should lead to low ownership of the talented Nola. Talented pitchers in less than ideal situations make good GPP plays as they give themselves better odds to come out clean of poor situations simply due to their skill-sets. Despite his last start against Cincinnati, Nola actually hasn’t been sharp to start the year but there’s still little doubt that he has the skill-set to be a low 3’s ERA pitcher with decent strikeout stuff (24.7% career strikeout rate). Nola would make for an even better GPP play if he finds himself with a pitcher friendly ump and/or gets a weakened Braves offense.
Strikeout Upside
It will be interesting to see how starting pitcher ownership breaks down on Monday night as a lack of strong high priced hitting options allow you to do pretty much whatever you want with the pitcher position. My hypothesis is that this will lead to relatively low ownership percentage for Blake Snell despite a high upside matchup against the Texas Rangers. Snell has been great to start the year with a 27.4% strikeout rate and 13.2% swinging strike percentage. Pair that with a weak Rangers offense (81 wRC+ vs LHP) and the pitcher friendly Tropicana and you have a recipe for strong run prevention and double digit strikeout upside.
A Lot Of Home Run Upside
I think this is the first time this season I’ve written up a player from the Rays, but I think Cron has some solid upside tonight. In 102 at bats since the start of 2017, he has a .255 ISO with a 41.2% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching. He has a very low .326 wOBA and a high 31.2% strikeout rate. I’ve talked about big power hitters against low strikeout pitchers a lot this season. Perez has a 12% strikeout rate against righties since the start of 2017. He’s allowing a 36% hard contact rate, and only getting 14.3% soft contact.
Excellent Source Of Value
I hate stacking the Blue Jays, but for the same reason I had a ton of Angels yesterday; I will be loading up on the Blue Jays tonight. Skoglund has been awful against righties, and with his low strikeout ability, the Blue Jays righties should feast on him tonight. Pearce has been great against lefties in his career, and he’s off to a great start this season. He’s an excellent source of value across the industry tonight, and I think he’s in play in both cash and tournaments.
Great Numbers Against Left-Handed Pitching
I’ve talked about taking a catcher on FanDuel a few times this season, and a guy like Iannetta continues to stand out against left-handed pitching. I really like him on DraftKings, and I expect him to be low owned on FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Since being called up in 2017, Steven Brault has a .358 wOBA with a 42.4% hard contact against right-handed hitters. His strikeout rate is only 14.4% against righties in that span. In 97 at bats against lefties since 2017, Iannetta has a .410 wOBA with a 148 wRC+. He also has a .960 OPS and a .247 ISO. It’s going to be hard to find a 2 hitter on FanDuel at this price with these numbers.
Leverage the Chalk
Jacob deGrom is far and away the top pitching option on Monday’s slate and as such should see some massive ownership numbers. It also means guys like Bryce Harper and Trea Turner will see minuscule ownership on a slate that is lacking high end talent. The Nationals are far from a high probability stack, so look somewhere else for your single entry GPPs, but the Nats make a lot of sense from a game theory perspective if you’re looking to bink the big one.
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Matt Adams A Lot Of Strikeout Upside
I don’t ever play Blake Snell, but I think he’s a great tournament pivot off Castillo tonight. While the Rangers have some power against lefties, they also have a lot of strikeout upside against lefties. The projected starters have a .178 ISO with a .366 wOBA against left-handed pitching, but they have a 26.3% strikeout rate. This is one of those, when they hit it, they hit it hard. Since the start of 2017, Snell has a 21.8% strikeout rate against righties, and a 25.6% strikeout rate against lefties. There is some solid strikeout upside, and with the options we have in this price range, I’m a lot more willing to take a chance than I usually am.
Great Opposing Lineup
Reynaldo Lopez was someone that I was excited to see take the next step this season. He’s had two really good starts, and he draws a great matchup tonight against Oakland. Oakland projects six right-handed hitters in the lineup tonight. Lopez has a .260 wOBA with a .53 HR/9 in 34 innings against right-handed hitters since being called up in 2017. He has really struggled against left-handed hitters, and that’s the one concern I have with him tonight. Olson is struggling right now, and Joyce isn’t much of a power hitter anymore. That’s the one thing Lopez has going for him.
A Lot Of Value Here
The way this slate breaks down, I see a lot more value bats to feel confident in than I do on the high end. I’m more tempted to start my lineups with the low end hitters in good matchups, and then see what I’m left to spend on. The Blue Jays have a couple of cheap right-handed OF with power upside against Eric Skoglund. Pearce is smashing the ball so far this season with a 42% hard hit rate and .367 ISO and over the course of his career, he has a 37% hard hit rate and .235 ISO against left-handed pitching. He should see a good lineup spot, either batting leadoff, or in an RBI position.
