DFS Alerts
Cheap Catcher With Strong Splits
Catcher is an easy place to save salary tonight with Wilson Ramos being one of the few Rays bats we can use to take advantage of Martin Perez’ weak splits. Perez has ridiculously low strikeout ability to righties, and Ramos has always had strong contact skills with above average hard hits against left-handed pitching.
Reynaldo Lopez has added a slider, has a 13.1 SwStr% through two starts
Reynaldo Lopez stopped throwing his curveball last season. Nobody knows why. He stopped missing bats. He has a 13.1 SwStr% through two starts this year. So he’s throwing his curveball again? No, he’s throwing a new slider 28.2% of the time. There are still some remaining flaws. He did walk five Tigers in his last start, but this is the type of arm few players may give a second look to tonight with a new pitch that gives him under the radar upside. If he continues to generate swings and misses on 13% of pitches, he won’t go unnoticed for long. While by no means a sure thing, he’s an interesting arm to take a shot with in a favorable environment. They A’s are no joke. They have a team 125 wRC+ vs RHP and Matt Chapman (127 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP career) leads the majors in fWAR. The A’s have a 22.8 K% vs RHP this year, but struck out a lot more last year. Lopez should be able to find a few whiffs in this lineup. It’s by no means a safe spot. The projected Oakland lineup boasts Chapman, Matt Olsen, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis and Matt Joyce, all in excess of a 125 wRC+ with at least a .190 ISO vs RHP since last season. Shots taken with Lopez may be smartly hedged with Oakland exposure in another lineup. With long balls and strikeouts, there’s even a chance both sides could pay off.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Joyce
Not even the domed games are safe; three PPDs already with one more weather concern in Kevin's evening forecast
With three PPDs on the day already, Kevin has his work cut out for him on Monday night. He’ll return to Crunch Time at 6:30 to go in-depth on another game which has some weather related concern this evening along with relevant conditions around the league tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time James Paxton has struck out 17 of last 46, has a board low 2.8% Barrels/BBE and handles RHBs well
The focus on the three west coast is probably mostly on pitching. Dallas Keuchel faces James Paxton in the premier matchup. These are two pitchers going in opposite directions this year though. Keuchel has walked four in each of his last two starts, totaling nine innings. While he’s still generating ground balls on 59% of contact with a dominant -4.1 Hard-Soft%, it’s been with a drop in his strikeout rate to 18.2% to go along with the walk rate increase. Of similar concern is the fact the Houston defense has been the worst in the league by UZR, as they were projected to be by Fangraphs this year. While the emphasis in Houston is on strikeouts, Keuchel would seem to be the pitcher most negatively impacted by the defense. His $9.4K DK price tag is difficult to justify at this point. On the other side, Paxton started off poorly, but has since struck out 17 of 46 batters over his last two starts. His 2.8% Barrels/BBE is the best mark on the board at this point at this point in the season. Despite what Bartolo Colon did last night, the Astros should still be considered the top offense in baseball and particularly dangerous against southpaws. However, Paxton is one LHP we can consider against them due not only to his upside and reasonable price point ($8.5K or below), but because he handles RHBs very well. In fact, he has a career reverse platoon split. This was not the case last year, but only because he improved so much against LHBs. A wOBA in the .270s against RHBs remained within 10 points of his career rate. Both teams in this matchup have an implied run line right around three and a half. Lineups for this game are not yet confirmed.
Other tagged players: Dallas Keuchel Monday’s KC-TOR game postponed
The matchup between the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night has been postponed due to safety concerns stemming from roof damage at the Rogers Centre that was caused by inclement weather. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up tomorrow, April 17, as part of a traditional doubleheader and will begin at 3:07 pm eastern time. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points for today’s slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Hazel Mae via Twitter
Luis Castillo has just an 18.8 K%, but with a board topping 14.6 SwStr%
Luis Castillo experienced a drop in velocity in his first start and allowed two HRs to the Nationals. He maintained that velocity in his second start, which was better, without a HR in Pittsburgh. He dropped even further last time out in Philadelphia (two more HRs). One can hope this is all cold weather related and despite the lack of strikeouts so far, he’s exceeded an 11% SwStr in each of his three starts. His 14.6 SwStr% tops the board overall, though he has just an 18.8 K%. How strange are his numbers this season? He has a .380 xwOBA with those four HRs, despite an 84.7 mph aEV and 3.5% Barrels/BBE that are both third lowest on the board. The Brewers appear to be approaching this as if they are facing a LHP with six RHBs in the lineup, though Castillo has shown no such weakness to same-handed batters (.281 wOBA, .272 xwOBA career). The hope is that the controlled climate in Milwaukee will help Castillo regain some velocity. He’s an extremely high upside arm at just $7.3K or less on either site. He’ll likely be very popular against an offense with a with a 20.2 K% vs RHP so far, but is not without risk. Travis Shaw (129 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2017) would seem the most likely to leave the yard. The other bat of interest would be the speedy Jonathan Villar (80 wRC+, .130 ISO) in the leadoff spot at less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Jonathan Villar Absence of Rendon and Eaton from Washington lineup enhances top arm Jacob deGrom's outlook
Jacob deGrom has not not truly dominated yet, but still has an ERA and estimators around three with a 24.7 K% (11.8 SwStr%). He’s generated ground balls at a career high 50% rate with an exceptional -4.1 Hard-Soft% through three starts. Already likely the top pitcher on the board at the highest price point, the outlook is enhanced by the absence of both Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon from the Washington lineup. He also pitches at home, in a negative run scoring environment, where he has always excelled and has a 31.2 K% since last season. The Nationals have an implied run line of 3.23 that’s lowest on the board before tonight’s lineup omissions were even realized. While Bryce Harper (181 wRC+, .344 ISO vs RHP since 2017) comes off the board against no RHP, he costs more than $5K on either site and 17 of the 29 HRs surrendered by deGrom since last season have actually gone to RHBs, against whom he still has a .259 xwOBA over that span.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper Even without Donaldson, the Blue Jays may have the bats to punish weak LHP
Eric Skoglund had a 16.7 K-BB% in 100 AAA innings last year and is a marginally ranked prospect in a weak Kansas City system. The now 25 year-old has walked just one fewer than he’s struck out in 22.2 major league innings so far and has allowed a lot of hard contact (36 Hard%) in the air (36.5 GB%) with just a 6.4 SwStr%. Even without Donaldson, the Blue Jays still have some bats that mash LHP in Justin Smoak (161 wRC+, .286 ISO since 2017), Steve Pearce (107 wRC+, .265 ISO) and don’t sleep on Kevin Pillar (141 wRC+, .221 ISO). Though the latter has an xwOBA 50 points below his actual one against southpaws due to a .362 BABIP, it’s still an above average .334. Teoscar Hernandez costs $2.7K or less on either site and has hit at every level of the minors. He has a 115 wRC+ and .264 ISO in 212 major league plate appearances. The Blue Jays have a 5.34 implied run line that is more than a half run higher than the next best team.
Other tagged players: Steve Pearce, Teoscar Hernandez, Kevin Pillar, Eric Skoglund Blake Snell has a 13.2 SwStr%, but 16.1 BB% as he's failed to capitalize on second half gains so far
Blake Snell may be the real wildcard tonight and a worthy lottery ticket. In the second half, he turned his season around by generating more swings and misses outside the zone when he started throwing more curveballs. Who knows why he’s gone back to the fastball this year because he’s once again generating a double digit walk rate (16.1%), though he’s still missing bats (13.2 SwStr%). The Texas Rangers, with three rookies in the starting lineup, should be a favorable matchup in Tampa Bay. While they have just a 20.6 K% against LHP that comes with an 81 wRC+ against them and a 30.9 team K% overall in the last seven days. There’s a tremendous risk that Snell will walk five batters and be out of the game after four or five innings and even worse allow a HR after a few of those walks, however, he might also strike out 10 and costs less than $8K. It’s a reasonable shot to take at such a price on this board. Adrian Beltre (177 wRC+, .241 ISO, 43.7 Hard% vs LHP since 2017) and Robinson Chirinos (161 wRC+, .256 ISO, 41 Hard%) merit strong consideration as well as they’re likely to see RBI opportunities.
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Robinson Chirinos Jeremy Hellickson throws many pitches, most of which are frequently hit hard
Jeremy Hellickson makes his debut for the Nationals off a season with just a 13.8 K%. According to PlateIQ, he throws five pitches at least 9% of the time since 2016 and all except his slider (10.82%) have an xwOBA against above .350 with a hard hit rate above 30%. Only his changeup has a whiff rate above 5%. Batters from either side have an xwOBA above .340 against him since last season. Although both Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes are out for the Mets tonight, that allows for Brandon Nimmo (152 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since last season) to lead off tonight at a cost of $3K or less on either site. Michael Conforto (162 wRC+, .287 ISO) is one of the top bats on the board. Asdrubal Cabrera (99 wRC+, .174 ISO) and Todd Frazier (109 wRC+, .180 ISO) are solid plays as well at surprisingly weak positions tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Todd Frazier Brent Suter has just a 15.7 K%, but his 9.4 SwStr% is in line with last season (18.8 K%)
Brent Suter doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he’s been an exceptional contact manager (84 mp aEV, 23.7% 95+ mph EV are best on the board and six of 21 fly balls have been infield flies) and his 15.7 K% comes with a 9.4 SwStr% that’s similar to the one that generated an 18.8 SwStr% last season. That’s still not very high, but may be useful in combination with the contact quality at a low cost against a severely lacking Cincinnati lineup tonight. Among batters with at least 30 PAs against LHP since last year, Adam Duvall (137 wRC+, .306 ISO) is the only RHB with a wRC+ above 80 or an ISO above .110. The Reds have an implied run line of 3.76 that’s actually in line with what the Braves are expected to score against a much more expensive Aaron Nola.
Other tagged players: Adam Duvall Aaron Nola has a double digit walk rate and 7.8 SwStr% through three starts, but a 24.7 career K%
Aaron Nola has not yet lived up to expectations this season, but did at least complete eight innings and reach 100 pitches last time out. He’s now sitting on a double digit walk rate through three starts with just an 7.8 SwStr%, but the quality of contact he’s generating has been exceptional (51.1 GB%, 23.1 IFFB%, 85.6 mph aEV). The Braves have just a 9.4 K-BB% and 116 wRC+ vs RHP, but the lean is still towards Nola and his career 24.7 K% over a small sample in 2018, though he’s the second most expensive pitcher on the board and the Braves have a 3.78 implied run line that’s more middle than bottom of the board tonight. Freddie Freeman (164 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP since last season) may be a tad expensive or maybe his price tag makes him the ultimate contrarian play on a night where players should be able to afford him. Preston Tucker (191 wRC+, .333 ISO, 44 Hard% in 36 PAs against RHP this season) costs less than $3K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Preston Tucker Big Power Potential
I originally had Jay Bruce in this slot at a few bucks cheaper, but with Bruce out of the lineup, Conforto becomes the lefty power bat to use against Jeremy Hellickson and his low strikeout, home run issues. So far in his career, Conforto has a 40% hard hit rate, .380wOBA and .258 ISO against right-handed pitching. His strikeouts sit right around average, but with the low K ability of Hellickson, contact should not be a problem tonight.
Although Julio Teheran had no platoon split last year (wOBA), his xwOBA was 57 points higher vs LHBs
While batters from either side have a .330+ wOBA against Julio Teheran since last season, there was a nearly 60 point difference in his xwOBA split, favoring LHBs, who have a hard hit rate 10 points higher. Teheran has struggled with the platoon disadvantage throughout his career. Unfortunate, and strange, that the Phillies (4.22 implied runs), would choose to utilize just three tonight. J.P. Crawford (100 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP career) is the cheapest of the three at a difficult position, costing less than $3K on either site. Odubel Herrera (104 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP since last season) has similar numbers with a much better spot in the order and higher cost, while Carlos Santana (115 wRC+, .393 xwOBA, .213 ISO) should be the primary look here. Pitcher handedness matters not much to Rhys Hoskins (164 wRC+, .311 ISO), but the cost is exorbitant. The Phillies do have just an 86 wRC+ and 26.1 K% against RHP so far. Teheran does have an 11.1 SwStr% and the Phillies’ decision to line up predominantly right-handed almost makes him interesting.
Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, J.P. Crawford, Julio Teheran Martin Perez has generated just four swings and misses through two starts, none in the strike zone
The Tampa Bay Rays do not list a lineup that screams daily fantasy goodness, yet are still implied for 4.55 runs (third highest on tonight’s board). The reason for this is that Martin Perez can get daily fantasy players excited. Consider that he’s missed four bats in two starts and has not generated a single swing and miss within the strike zone. RHBs have a .372 xwOBA since last season with an xwOBA 11 points higher. This should play well even in a negative run scoring environment in Tampa Bay. Unfortunately, we can’t find a single RHB in the Tampa Bay lineup (of which there are eight) with a wRC+ above 87 over the last week (10 PA min.) with Carlos Gomez (41.2 Hard%) the only one above a 25% hard hit rate. Similarly, cleanup hitter C.J. Cron (106 wRC+, .255 ISO, 41.2 Hard%, 50 FB%) is the only one above a 95 wRC+ or .170 ISO vs LHP since last season (30 PA min.). Perhaps more importantly though, not a single bat costs more than $3.7K on DraftKings or even $3K on FanDuel. Adeiny Hechavarria (88 wRC+, .168 ISO) might not be the worst SS punt play in the second hole at a very cheap cost (minimum on FD). In fact, the Tampa Bay lineup has four batters at the minimum price tag on FanDuel and only three above $3K on DraftKings. A reasonable approach might be to fill out lineups optimally and then come back to the Rays for spots in need of some salary savings.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gomez, Adeiny Hechavarria