DFS Alerts
Cody Reed has had major control issues in both AAA and at the major league level
Cody Reed allowed 12 HRs in 10 starts for the Reds in 2016 and then another three in 17.2 innings, mostly in relief last year. However, he’s allowed just 13 in 179.1 AAA innings since 2016, though he’s struggled with control at both levels over the last two years (12.7 BB% at AAA last season, 12.3 BB% in 65.1 major league innings). He does tend to keep the ball on the ground (53.7 GB% MLB career), but there’s certainly potential for Rhys Hoskins (153 wRC+, .400 ISO, 45.5 Hard%, 48.5 FB% vs LHP career) to do damage as well as Aaron Altherr (118 wRC+, .283 ISO vs LHP since last season), who sees an unfortunate drop in the lineup after struggling to start the year (62 wRC+ last seven days). He costs $3.4K or less on either site though. Maikel Franco (88 wRC+, .219 ISO) has the third highest ISO against LHP since last season in the lineup tonight and has a 262 wRC+ over the last week. His cost has risen to $4K on DraftKings though ($3.3K on FD). Scott Kingery has cooled off since his hot spring (27 wRC+, 20 Hard% last seven days). Those control issues would make it likely that Carlos Santana (104 wRC+, .163 ISO) reaches base and potentially scores multiple runs tonight, but he comes at a high cost for average production against LHP.
Other tagged players: Aaron Altherr, Cody Reed, Maikel Franco, Scott Kingery, Carlos Santana
Red hot Bryce Harper (294 wRC+ last seven days) has eight HRs against Julio Teheran
While it might not sound like a lot, the Nationals have an implied run of 4.67 that’s currently within one-tenth of a run of the second highest spot on a board that includes a game at Coors. That’s a testament to the strength of tonight’s pitching options. Julio Teheran really struggles with LHBs (.360 xwOBA, 35.9 Hard%, 38.2 GB% since last season). As if players didn’t have enough reason to fire up Bryce Harper (184 wRC+, .356 ISO vs RHP since last season, 294 wRC+ over the last week), he has eight HRs against Teheran in 47 career PAs. Teheran’s strength used to be against RHBs, though he’s been merely league average since last year (.336 wOBA, .306 xwOBA, 25.5 Hard%, 41.4 GB%), which is where we mourn Adam Eaton’s absence from the lineup tonight. Ryan Zimmerman (124 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since 2017) does cost just $2.8K on FanDuel. Brian Goodwin (98 wRC+, .241 ISO) is the only other LHB in the lineup for the Nationals tonight.
Other tagged players: Julio Teheran, Ryan Zimmerman, Brian Goodwin Dylan Bundy's 29.4 K% (16.7 SwStr%) through two starts leads a solid group of mid-range options on Monday night
Beyond the strength in the top price range tonight, there are several high upside arms in the mid-range too tonight, important for players wishing to pay up for Coors bats. Dylan Bundy has a 29.4 K% and 16.7 SwStr% through two starts and faces a Toronto lineup with a 27.7 K% vs RHP so far. Garrett Richards struck out nine of 24 Indians in his last start and, while a significant park downgrade in Texas might be a concern, he has always been a strong contact manager (4.1% Barrels/BBE last year) and the Rangers return most of an offense that struck out a ton last year. Richards costs just $6.7K on DraftKings. Zack Godley combined a 26.6 K% with a strong 55.3 GB% and 27.7 Z-O-Swing% in 2017. Statcast supported a wOBA below .290. While he struck out just three Dodgers in his first start, he threw seven strong innings and gets a massive park upgrade in San Francisco tonight. Two potential wildcards might be Jon Gray and Jakob Junis. Gray had a stark difference in his home/road approach last season, leading to a 56.3 GB% and 21.7 K% at home vs a 43.3 GB% and 26.1 K% away. That might lead one to believe there’s less upside at home with more focus on weak contact. However, he costs just under $8K on either site and the Padres continue to strike out in a quarter of plate appearances against RHP. Jakob Junis got off to a great start in Detroit (7 IP – 3 H – 0 R – 1 BB – 6 K), but was just league average by an ERA with estimators in the mid-fours last year, but he has a quality slider, which he uses a lot, had a strong spring (20 Ks in 14 IP) and pitches in a big park that supports his fly ball tendencies. He still needs to work on a quality platoon busting split, but hasn’t had major issues with LHBs so far and costs a reasonable $7K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Garrett Richards, Zack Godley, Jon Gray, Jakob Junis Noah Syndergaard has struck out 40.5% of batters faced through two starts
Monday night offers a pitching rich slate at both the top and middle price ranges. Each of the three $10K+ pitchers (Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander) struggled somewhat in their most recent start, but each still struck out at least seven batters and have a strikeout rate north of 29% to start the season. Scherzer gets a rematch against the Braves, an offense with a 136 wRC+ and just a 16.5 K% vs RHP. He’s arguably in the worst spot of the three tonight, but shouldn’t be counted out, especially if ownership projections eventually reflect such a scenario. Verlander is coming off his worst start since joining the Astros. He allowed two HRs and failed to complete six innings for the first time with his new team, but still struck out nine of 25 batters. Minnesota has had a proficient offense thus far and it’s a lineup that contains some power, while Verlander is an extreme fly ball pitcher who will allow a few HRs, but it’s expected to be near freezing in Minnesota tonight, which should play to his advantage. Syndergaard didn’t make it past four innings in his last start, but still struck out seven of 18 Phillies and has struck out 40.5% of the batters he’s faced through two starts. His price tag is nearly equal to Scherzer’s tonight, but, theoretically, he should be able to mow through the Marlins with ease.
Other tagged players: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer Elite Hitter At Second Tier Price
If you can’t quite afford both Arenado and Harper in your lineup, Joey Votto gives you access to another elite bat, without paying a top tier salary. Ben Lively has virtually no strikeout ability against left-handed batters, while Votto hits the ball hard, and rarely misses his pitch. If he gets pitched around, he’ll take walks and score runs. When he gets pitched to, he piles up line drives and hard hits. In 2017, he posted a .461 OBP and .433 wOBA against righties.
Paying Down at Pitcher
With Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard on the mound, it’s hard not to pay up for one of them, especially in cash games. However, we have a game in Coors Field on the slate. In order to get access to some of the more expensive batters, it’s not the worst idea to pay down at pitching. Dylan Bundy has been tremendous in his first two starts of the season and now gets to face the Blue Jays, who can’t seem to hit a slider to save their lives. The sample size is small, but Bundy has a 32% strikeout rate against the current roster of the Blue Jays.
Two Elite Options on the Mound Tonight
The decision between Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard is a difficult one. Given the fact that Scherzer allowed five runs against the Braves in his last start, I have a feeling Syndergaard is going to garner more ownership. Personally, when I’m having a tough time deciding between two pitchers, I’ll break the tie with the one that is pitching at home. That honor belongs to Scherzer, who has a low SIERA and a high strikeout rate once again this season. The Braves may have a few lefties in their lineup, but none of them scare me outside of Freddie Freeman.
Eventually his Price will Change
For whatever reason, DFS sites refuse to price Dexter Fowler appropriately. Rather than complaining, I will continue to fire him up as an elite play, especially in cash games. The Cardinals draw a favorable matchup tonight against Jhoulys Chacin, who allowed a .352 xwOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Fowler has a nice mix of speed and power, he’s solid against right-handed pitching, and he’s cheap across the industry.
Even BvP Doubters Can't Deny this Play
No matter what split you want to rely on, Bryce Harper is one of the top plays at any position. If you want to go off the opposing pitcher splits, Julio Teheran has allowed a .360 xwOBA to lefties over the last two seasons. If you look at Harper’s splits, he has a .432 xwOBA against righties during that same time period. And finally, if you like BvP, check these numbers out — Harper is 18-for-39 with eight home runs against Teheran in his career.
Overlooked Superstar in the Outfield
If you are paying up for a few hitters, odds are that you will be looking to Coors Field. I certainly love the Rockies as much as the next guy/gal, but we have a chance to target Rhys Hoskins against a lefty at low ownership. Since the beginning of last season, Hoskins has a massive .437 xwOBA and a .400 ISO against southpaws. Cody Reed not only struggled with his command, but he has allowed a .413 wOBA to right-handed hitters in his career.
Coors Pitching
Rostering a pitcher throwing at Coors is never fun but there is some merit doing it this time of year when cold weather helps suppress contact a bit. Gray just shut down these same San Diego Padres his last start when he struck out seven over seven innings of work. It’s early in the year but this Padres offense is unsurprisingly bad (25.4 K%, 83 wRC+ vs RHP) and this is a high upside matchup for Jon Gray and his career 24.8% strikeout rate.
Split Ownership
It’s likely we’ll see ownership split between Noah Syndergaard and Max Scherzer on Monday night, which almost by default makes Justin Verlander a de facto GPP option. Verlander has been great for the Astros and has one of the highest strikeout projections on the slate. JV will take on the Twins in Minnesota where it’s projected to be close to freezing by the time the game gets underway. The Twins have the third lowest implied run total on the slate behind only Atlanta (vs Scherzer) and Miami (vs Syndergaard).
Cheap SP2 In A Good Ballpark
I want to spend up on pitcher tonight, but if I’m going down, I think Junis has a nice floor in this matchup. Robinson Cano and Mitch Haniger are the only two hitters in this lineup that have a wOBA over .350 against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017. Add in the pitchers ballpark and the implied team total under four, Junis looks to be pretty safe tonight. Junis struggled with walks in 2017, and that’s my biggest concern when playing him tonight. There is only three projected hitters in the starting lineup with an above average walk rate against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017.
Elite Strikeout Upside
If you’re new to fantasy baseball, you will pick up on things that you can use throughout the year. One of those things for me is sliders against the Blue Jays. Since 2016, only Devon Travis has a wOBA over .350 against sliders, and they all have a swinging strike rate over 10% against them. Smoak is the one guy that has some positive regression coming, but Bundy doesn’t rely on his slider against lefties like he does against righties. In 2017, Bundy threw his slider 34% of the time against right-handed hitters and has a 26.45% swinging strike rate with it. He’s one of my favorite pitchers on this slate tonight, and he presents massive strikeout upside.
Bottom of the Order Lefties
Lynn’s struggles versus left handed hitters (.344 wOBA, 12.7 BB%, 5.02 xFIP) will always be brought up when he toes the rubber. But the Astros don’t have many left handed hitters you actually want to roster!? No problem! In the Rockies stack blurb I mentioned that a good way to differentiate your stacks from other stacks of the same team is to roster players toward the bottom of the order. Turns out that works perfectly when targeting Lynn with the Astros because the Astros tend to stack their lefties at the bottom of the order anyway. The Astros may flip some things around on Monday night but in a perfect world we’ll have the chance to stack Astros 5-9 which includes four lefties (Reddick, Marwin, McCann, Fisher). Outside of Reddick, this stack should be relatively low-owned and is cheap enough to allow you to take a couple of different approaches at starting pitcher.
Other tagged players: Derek Fisher, Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Reddick