DFS Alerts
Great Spot To Target
We have some great high end pitching options tonight, but the next tier is also very good tonight. Nola faces a Reds team that looks weak on paper, and has some really solid upside here. The Reds have a .088 ISO with a 23.5% strikeout rate to start the season against right-handed pitching. Nola has a 29.7% strikeout rate against righties since the start of last season. His strikeout rate against lefties in that span is 22.1%. The Reds project seven lefties tonight, and four of them have strikeout rates over 20% against righties since the start of 2017. He uses four pitches and mixes them up well, and if he keeps the walks down here, there is some solid upside at this price.
This Team Has A Lot Of Upside
The Mets should start 6-7 guys with ISO’s over .200 against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. I wish it was a better ballpark for hitters, but I’m still willing to take a chance on them tonight. Flores is really cheap, but playing him at C-1B on FanDuel is a little harder than playing him at 2B on DK. He has a .252 ISO with a .342 wOBA against left-handed pitching since the start of 2017, and a very impressive 16.5% strikeout rate. The power upside is there for Flores, and he should hit in a good spot in this lineup tonight. In a small sample size, Caleb Smith has struggled with right-handed power bats.
Upside At A Cheap Price
If you’ve been reading my write ups everyday, then you know how much I like power hitters with big strikeout rates against low strikeout pitchers. That’s exactly what we’re getting tonight with Nick Williams against Homer Bailey. Bailey has a 13.2% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters since the start of last season, and he’s allowing a .364 wOBA with a 31.5% hard contact rate and a 15.2% soft contact rate. In 245 ABs against right-handed pitching, Williams has a .204 ISO with a 37% hard contact rate. His numbers are above average, but he strikes out at a high clip. I like his upside against this low strikeout pitcher, and really like his price on the sites today.
A Lot Of Upside In This Great Matchup
Hunter Renfroe is one of my favorite DFS baseball players, and I really like to play him against left-handed pitching. Since the start of 2017, Anderson has a .359 wOBA with a 33.5% hard contact rate against right-handed hitters. He’s also allowed 12 home runs (1.6 HR/9) in 67.2 innings to righties in that span. Renfroe has a .363 ISO with a 1.067 OPS against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. He also has a .437 wOBA with a 176 wRC+ in that same span. He’s way too cheap on FanDuel, and I think he’s a good value play on DraftKings.
Cheap Lead Off Hitter
It’s not everyday that we get cheap bats in Coors, and I’m fully taking advantage of it tonight against Tyler Anderson. Since the start of 2017, Anderson has a .359 wOBA with a 33.5% hard contact rate against right-handed hitters. He’s also allowed 12 home runs (1.6 HR/9) in 67.2 innings to righties in that span. In 94 at bats against left-handed pitching since being called up last season, Pirela has a .393 wOBA with a .255 ISO and a .933 OPS. He has a 40.9% hard contact rate in that span.
RHBs have a .403 wOBA vs Derek Holland since last season, Arizona still has implied run line below four
Tonight, players may find out to what extent a park can help a pitcher. Derek Holland pitches in one of the greatest parks in baseball now, though San Francisco punishes left-handed offense much more than right-handed offense. It’s still a negative run environment regardless. The problem is that RHBs had an astounding ,403 wOBA against Holland since last season and that’s confirmed by a .401 wOBA, 40.3 Hard% and 32.6 GB%. Park factors must be the reason the Diamondbacks have just a 3.86 implied run line tonight and to make matters worse, the two biggest thumpers (Paul Goldschmidt 143 wRC+, .271 ISO, 49.1 Hard% vs LHP since last season – A.J. Pollock 119 wRC+, .261 ISO) both cost at least $3.9K on either site and cost exactly $4.8K on DraftKings each. Nick Ahmed (193 wRC+, .273 ISO) and Deven Marrero (133 wRC+, .279 ISO) are potential value spots here.
Other tagged players: A.J. Pollock, Nick Ahmed, Deven Marrero, Derek Holland
Paying up for Colorado bats means players may have to sacrifice high priced pitching
With Colorado stacks looking to be popular tonight, players will need to save on pitching. Premium players can see which pitchers players are looking to save some salary with along with potential ownership rates on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership A few spots with light rain and some cold temperatures in Kevin's evening forecast.
There are a few spots with light rain and some cold temperatures in the evening forecast. Kevin goes into depth in his forecast for all of these games at 6:30 ET on Crunch Time.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time No other team comes within a half run of the Rockies' implied run line (5.46) tonight
Right-handed batters have a ridiculous .373 wOBA against Clayton Richard since last year and although that includes a 56.1 GB%, it also includes a 38% hard hit rate. Despite a similar 56.3 GB% in his last start, these same Rockies knocked him around for five runs in San Diego. It’s no surprise that Colorado tops the board with a 5.46 implied run line tonight, but no other team is within even half a run of them. Home team players with the platoon advantage should be very popular tonight and for good reason here. Nolan Arenado (222 wRC+, .411 ISO vs LHP since last season), DJ. LeMahieu (144 wRC+, .196 ISO), Trevor Story (139 wRC+, .324 ISO, 48.9 Hard%) and Chris Iannetta (141 wRC+, .236 ISO) are the big bats here, though players will have to hunt for value in other spots in order to afford them and that may be Pat Valaika (100 wRC+, .279 ISO) at less than $3K on either site. The question is whether to pay an enormous price for Charlie Blackmon (138 wRC+, .237 ISO) against a pitcher who has generated a 68.5 GB% and 24.8 Hard% against RHBs since last season.
Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta, Charlie Blackmon, Clayton Richard, Patrick Valaika Astros play just three LHBs vs a pitcher with significant platoon issues last year (Lance Lynn)
In a vacuum, Minnesota is actually a much better run scoring environment than Houston, though it’s not as power friendly and temperatures near freezing could make that even more so tonight. While Lance Lynn doesn’t miss as many bats as he used to (19.7 K% last season), RHBs did have a .283 wOBA and 28 Hard% against him last year. LHBs had much more success (.353 wOBA, 30.4 Hard%), but the Astros have only three of those in the lineup tonight and one of them bats ninth. Marwin Gonzalez (150 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2017) should be the primary play here, below $4K on either site with key RHBs perhaps being too expensive in this spot (above $5K on DK). Brian McCann (104 wRC+, .188 ISO) is a reasonably priced Catcher option ($3.4K or less on either site). Josh Reddick is sadly absent from the lineup.
Other tagged players: Brian McCann, Lance Lynn LHBs have an xwOBA (.387) 57 points higher than actual against Jose Urena since last year
Jose Urena failed to look like a major league pitcher, never mind an Opening Day starter, when he hit multiple batters and walked four more Cubs, allowing two HRs in his first start. He followed that up with seven strong four hit innings with a single walk and seven strikeouts against the Red Sox. The advantage he has here is that the Mets completed a big sweep of the Nationals around midnight on Sunday and now travel south to face the Marlins. Urena had just a 15.6 K% last year and has a similar SwStr below 9% this year so far. He also had an odd combination of an 85.4 mph aEV and 8.1% Barrels/BBE last year. While he had only a 20 point difference in his wOBA platoon split last year, xwOBA adds another 57 points against LHBs, bringing it up to .386. Michael Conforto (167 wRC+, .300 ISO) and Jay Bruce (131 wRC+, .272 ISO) have both punished right-handed pitching since the start of last season. Both are reasonably priced at $4K or less on either site and both exceed a 160 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Jose Urena Normally a pitcher with a strong platoon split, RHBs have a 52.4 Hard% vs Jhoulys Chacin through two starts
Jhoulys Chacin has been a pitcher with substantial platoon splits. RHBs have a .271 wOBA, 26 Hard%, 52.9 GB%, 23.5 K% against him since last season with LHBs hitting him at a .344 wOBA clip with a 33.2 Hard% and 46.6 GB%. This year, he hasn’t been fooling anyone through two starts. RHBs have a 52.4 Hard% against him. The good news for him is that he gets a park upgrade on the road in St Louis, a very difficult park to hit the ball out of in April, especially for RHBs. The bad news is that this St Louis team is seeing him for the second straight start and put six runs on the board against him last week. The numbers suggest that Matt Carpenter (132 wRC+, .231 ISO, 42.5 Hard%, 51.5 FB%) and Dexter Fowler (121 wRC+, .235 ISO) are strong plays here. As a team, the Cardinals have a 21.0 K-BB% vs RHP this season. The early season conditions in a difficult park along with the pitcher’s own history of having success against RHBs would make the rest of the lineup more difficult to play tonight, except for the fact that none are above $3.8K on DraftKings and only Yadier Molina (89 wRC+, .140 ISO) has been below average against same-handed pitching since last year. If players are paying up for pitching, cheap Cardinal bats could be plugged in where needed to fill out a lineup, though it’s probably not a lineup players should be actively looking to stack.
Other tagged players: Yadier Molina, Jhoulys Chacin J.A. Happ has allowed 37 HRs to RHBs since 2016
While J.A. Happ had a league average .323 wOBA (.314 xwOBA) against right-handed batters last year and isn’t a pitcher players should normally look to attack, especially with a sub-four implied run line, there are a few spots in the Baltimore lineup that players can hunt home runs with tonight. Happ has allowed three HRs over his first two starts (all to RHBs), while allowing 37 to RHBs since the start of 2016. Jonathan Schoop (149 wRC+, .278 ISO) and Manny Machado (122 wRC+, .267 ISO) have both been superior hitters against LHPs since the start of last season, the former costing less than $3.5K on either site. If you’re looking to punt Catcher, Caleb Joseph (108 wRC+, .229 ISO) has shown some pop withe platoon advantage and costs less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Caleb Joseph Cincinnati lineup lacking many threats against a pitcher who strikes out few, but has managed contact well
The Reds have produced an interesting lineup tonight as they’re dealing with injuries. It seems Tucker Barnhart (100 wRC+, .137 ISO vs RHP since 2017) in the fifth spot. Ben Lively is not a pitcher who misses a lot of bats (7.2 SwStr% last year, 7.7% in his first start this year), but he did succeed at generating weak contact (84.7 mph aEV, 27.8% 95+ mph EV last year). Contrary to what some may think, Philadelphia is a park that plays more neutral as a run environment even though it greatly enhances power. There’s not a lot to like in this Cincinnati lineup, though LHBs do have a .364 wOBA (.371 xwOBA) against Lively since last season. Scooter Gennett (133 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .244 ISO) are certainly viable plays. No other batter in the lineup has been an above average hitter (> 100 wRC+) against RHP since last season, though Adam Duvall (.209 ISO) has shown some power against a pitcher who only generates ground ball son 32.4% of contact against same-handed batters.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Ben Lively, Tucker Barnhart Doug Fister has further increased his velocity, but Angels have second highest implied run line (4.75) in Texas
It would seem unfortunate that Shohei Ohtani is out of the lineup for this trip to Texas against Doug Fister, who has issues with LHBs. After returning to the majors with a two mile per hour jump in velocity last season, he’s added another mile per hour through two starts this season. While the Angels currently own the second highest projected run line on the board (4.75), there are some issues working against rostering batters from this lineup. They lineup predominantly right-handed, a side Fister has been much stronger against (.280 wOBA, 25.5 Hard%, 51.4 GB% since last season) and he’s been held to 85 pitches or less in each of his first two starts, though he has dealt with control problems so far. Zack Cozart (133 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since last season), Mike Trout (184 wRC+, .347 ISO) and Justin Upton (122 wRC+, .242 ISO) are all strong enough against RHP that players can still consider paying up for them in a great park. Luis Valbuena (102 wRC+, .240 ISO, 51.9 FB%) is a fly ball oriented value play here ($3.5K or less on either site). Ryan Schimpf (89 wRC+, 258 ISO, 64.3 FB%) is a cheap fly ball machine, who may not get many opportunities to face the starting pitcher, batting ninth.
Other tagged players: Zack Cozart, Justin Upton, Luis Valbuena, Ryan Schimpf