DFS Alerts
Game update: Reds-Phillies will be delayed due to rain Monday
Game update: Reds-Phillies will be delayed due to rain Monday
Several Stacks Project to Do Some Damage on Monday Night
On an eight game board with four teams separating themselves atop the board above five implied runs with no others exceeding four and a half, we find a foursome of stacks bunched together atop projected ownership currently (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day) in double digits on DraftKings. This bunching includes three of those teams, but then also the Cardinals instead of the Phillies, though the Phillies project to be the most popular stack on FanDuel right now, likely due to their being a bit more affordable there. We also find a virtual tie atop the Smash% column. The Cardinals and Dodgers both project to smash the slate a very nearly equal amount with the Braves not too far behind. Eric Lauer threw a Quality Start at the Dodgers last time out and the Cardinals may be dealing with pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley tonight though. No offensive stack stands out in any projected category tonight, as the Reds, Marlins and Pirates are all within two percentage points of each other as the top projected DraftKings Value stacks tonight. As mentioned before, the Phillies are a bit more affordable on FanDuel and currently project as the top value stack on that site. How does this affordability affect the Phillies in terms of Leverage? That answer and all the top rated stacks in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Top Projected Value Has Been Tearing Up RHP
Without much in the way of viable low priced pitching tonight, players are going to need to mix in some value bats. While the recently rejuvenated Albert Pujols (225 wRC+, .380 ISO vs LHP this season) projects as the top DraftKings value, still costing the minimum, you’ll have to sacrifice the top projected bat on the board (Paul Godlschmidt) to get there in potentially pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley tonight. No other Cardinals projects as a top 10 DK value against Drew Smyly (RHBs .336 wOBA, .312 xwOBA), but we do find a pair of top FanDuel values, including Tyler O’Neill (117 wRC+, .123 ISO), who also doubles as a top overall projected bat, and Paul DeJong (110 wRC+, .156 ISO).
Jake Fraley has been tearing up RHP (163 wRC+, .313 ISO this season) and while Cincinnati is one of the few offenses that can call Philadelphia a park downgrade, it’s still the most positive run environment on the board with Fraley projecting as the top FanDuel value ($2.6K) and second best DraftKings one ($2.5K) against Noah Syndergaard (LHBs .330 wOBA, .329 xwOBA). TJ Friedl (62 wRC+) is also a top FD value, costing the minimum. On DraftKings, Fraley is joined by Nick Senzel (76 wRC+) and Mike Moustakas (80 wRC+, .158 ISO) as top 10 projected values, both costing the minimum. RHBs have been nearly average against Syndergaard (.292 wOBA, .319 xwOBA).
We can also find a pair of min-costing Pirates in Tucupita Marcano (66 wRC+) and Greg Allen (79 wRC+) projecting as reasonable punts against Jake Odorizzi (LHBs .313 wOBA, .315 xwOBA) on DraftKings, along with J.J. Bleday (116 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Brian Anderson (99 wRC+) against Adam Oller (LHBs .400+ wOBA & xwOBA, RHBs .389 wOBA, but .329 xwOBA).
On FanDuel, Kyle Schwarber (134 wRC+, .316 ISO vs RHP this season) projects as a top 10 bat and the second best value for $3.2K. Luis Cessa will start this game for the Reds, but hasn’t thrown even 25 pitches in an outing since June. The Cincinnati pen has just a 3.39 FIP and 3.41 SIERA over the last 30 days. Rhys Hoskins (110 wRC+, .209 ISO) is also a top projected bat tonight. They can be cheaply paired with Matt Vierling (43 wRC+) and Bradley Zimmer (38 wRC+) as top projected FanDuel values. Vierling also projects as a top DK value, costing the minimum.
Tonight's Top Projected Bat Has Destroyed LHP (276 wRC+, .413 ISO)
The Braves (5.29 implied runs) and Phillies (5.26) are essentially tied atop Monday night’s eight game board with the Twins (5.09) and Dodgers (5.04) reaching five run team totals as well, but no other offense exceeding four and a half runs. Philadelphia is really the only positive run environment on this slate, according to Statcast Park Factors (rolling three years), so perhaps it’s a surprise to see one-quarter of the board reaching five runs. The top projected bat on the board comes from none of those offenses though. Despite the pitcher friendly forecast at Wrigley, Paul Goldschmidt is the top main tonight and the most important thing to know here is that he’s facing a LHP. Not that Drew Smyly has been bad. He has gone away from his cutter (14.4%) and been more fastball heavy (43.4%) since his return from the IL, throwing it and his curveball almost equally, resulting in fewer ground balls (34.3%), but a few more strikeouts (21.7%, 16.8 K-BB%). He’s also been getting a lot of popups (16 in 16 starts) with just an 85.9 mph EV (33.9% 95+ mph EV). Smyly doesn’t have an estimator below four, but only a 4.41 DRA is more than half a run removed from his 3.67 ERA. However, RHBs have a .336 wOBA and .312 xwOBA against him this season and he’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup, led by Goldy’s 276 wRC+ and .413 ISO against southpaws this year. However, players may have a decision to make (at least on DraftKings) because Albert Pujols has also been smoking LHP (225 wRC+, .388 ISO) and costs less than half of what Goldshmidt costs. Pujols is not a top 10 projected bat tonight, but is the top projected DraftKings value. Tyler O’Neill (117 wRC+, .123 ISO) does project as a top 10 overall bat tonight.
We also find a pair of Twins among the top 10 projections. Cole Ragans has struck out just seven of 64 batters (11.4 CStr%, 92.9 Z-Contact%) with eight walks and five barrels (10.2%), despite an 86.1 mph EV. He has generated just 32.7% of his contact on the ground, but with a 25.0 IFFB%. Despite just a 40 Future Value grade (Fangrpahs), Ragans did exceed a 20 K-BB% at both Double and Triple A this year and he’s gotten some usage out of a his changeup (36.5%, -1.8 RV/100, 21.2 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .300), a pitch the Twins have struggled against this year (-0.06 wCH/C is bottom third of the league). Despite the platoon busting pitch seemingly working well, RHBs have still smoked him for a .375 wOBA and .370 xwOBA so far, so apparently he’s not throwing it often enough. Byron Buxton (155 wRC+, .343 ISO) projects as a top three bat tonight with Carlos Correa (139 wRC+, .165 ISO) also among the top 10.
Ironically, the top two offenses on the board only place a single batter each among the top 10 projected (Ronald Acuna Jr. & Kyle Schwarber, though Rhys Hoskins projects right on the edge of the top 10), but we also find a pair of Dodgers. Eric Lauer’s strikeout rate has risen and fallen with his velocity, both on a roller coaster ride all season long. Most recently, both had been down. Lauer had just a 16.4 K% and 4.9 K-BB% over a five start span going into his last game against the Dodgers, when his velocity spiked and he struck out seven of 26 batters over seven innings (three runs). Who knows what you’re going to get in any given start? On the season, a 3.58 ERA is below estimators all above four, as he’s stranded 81.2% of runners with more than 10% of his runs being unearned. It wasn’t an entirely clean outing against the Dodgers last time out, as they did put a few on the board against him. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .313 and .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The Dodgers will test him again tonight with Mookie Betts (176 wRC+, .284 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (125 wRC+, .163 ISO) projecting best.
Matchup Trumps Workload For Tonight's Top Projected Value
This will be just the third home start in his last 10 for Jeffrey Springs, whose only negative attribute as a starter is that he rarely exceeds five innings. He’s struck out 25.9% of batters with a 4.8 BB% and just 17 barrels (7.4%) since his first start. His 2.73 ERA as a starter is a bit below estimators (3.35 FIP/3.19 xFIP), due to an 83.1 LOB%. Despite the light workload, Springs is tonight’s top projected value on either site for $8K or less, due to the negative run environment and great matchup. The Angels have an 82 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs LHP this season.
After a rough first outing for the Phillies against Washington, Noah Syndergaard has followed up with two straight Quality Starts (13 IP – 5 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 10 K – 52 BF) against the Marlins and Reds. The strikeout rate is up to an almost league average 20.9% over his last nine starts and the Phillies have him throwing his slider harder (11.7 SwStr% last start). He’s managed contact well enough all season (87.3 mph EV, 34.7% 95+ mph EV) with great control (5.8 BB%), so any improvement to an 18.3 K%, should push non-FIP estimators ranging from a 4.15 xFIP to a 4.33 xERA below four. The harder slider should have a positive effect against a Cincinnati offense that’s been fifth worst in the league against the pitche this year (-0.55 wSL/C). They also have just an 84 wRC+ and 24.2 K% (17.0 K-BB%) vs RHP this season. Projecting as the fourth best value on either site for $8.5K or less, Syndergaard is probably single pitcher site usable on this board, though perhaps still lacking the upside of more expensive pitchers.
Projecting as the third best DraftKings value ($8.5K), Sonny Gray tied a season high, striking out 10 of 22 Royals last time out and completed six innings for just the third time in 11 starts. His 24.3 K% is still his lowest mark since his Yankee days, while a 44.3 GB% is a career low, though his 7.4 BB% is his lowest since Oakland. The entire package (87.4 mph EV, 5.4% Barrels/BBE) results in estimators ranging from a 3.33 FIP to a 3.69 SIERA, just a bit above his 3.11 ERA. The Rangers have a 24 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP this season.
Not projecting particularly strongly, after striking out a single Yankee in his first start for St Louis, Jordan Montgomery has struck out 16 of his last 46 batters. One would think that the Cardinals have figured out a way to harness his 13.5 SwStr%, but they’ve actually increased his sinker usage (18.4 Whiff%), which makes some sense, considering their elite defense (17 Runs Prevented). Montgomery is now up to a league average 21.4 K%, pairing it with an elite 4.9 BB% and just 6.3% Barrels/BBE. His 3.29 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.48 xFIP to a 4.18 DRA, but it’s not uncommon for Cardinal pitchers to beat their estimators for the reason mentioned. With some potentially pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley tonight, the Cubs have a 98 wRC+ and 24.0 K% vs LHP. Montgomery may be a bit undervalued in this spot. Beyond these four, the lower half of the board is probably not a place you want to spend a lot of time on tonight.
Monday's Top Arm Already Has Seven Shutout Innings Against Tonight's Opponent
We start the week with an eight game Monday night slate featuring three $10K pitchers (two on DraftKings) without any other arms exceeding $9K on both sites. Most expensively and costing more than $1K more than any other pitcher on either site, a string of seven straight Quality Starts for Max Scherzer came to an end last time out against the Braves, tying a season high four runs allowed over six innings. He’s only failed to hit the six inning mark twice (his second start and then by a single out once more). It may be a bit fortunate that just eight of 24 barrels (9.1%) have left the yard, but he’s otherwise only allowing 31.8% of his contact to reach the 95 mph mark, though just 29.6% of it has been on the ground. More importantly, his 26.7 K-BB% remains elite. A 3.27 xFIP is nearly half a run above all other estimators, due to the extreme fly ball lean. The slider is Scherzer’s best offering (-4 RV/100, 49 Whiff%) and even though the Yankees (114 wRC+, 22.3 K%, 14.9 HR/FB vs RHP) are the top offense against that pitch (0.32 wSL/C), they went scoreless against him over seven innings with six strikeouts a little less than a month back. The Yankee offense continues to struggle with a 64 wRC+ and 24.7 K-BB% over the last week. Scherzer is the top projected FanDuel pitcher and essentially tied for the top spot on DraftKings. However, he’s projected as the slightly better value on DraftKings (sixth best) and more a middle of the board value on FanDuel (eighth). There’s also a small chance of delay in this game, something Scherzer also experienced in his last start, though he did come back out again. For more on tonight’s most expensive arms, including a top Scherzer pivot, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Sam Haggerty (shoulder) scratched Sunday
Sam Haggerty (shoulder) scratched Sunday
As reported by: Ryan Divish via Twitter
The start of White Sox-Guardians will be delayed Sunday due to rain
Game update: The start of White Sox-Guardians will be delayed Sunday due to rain
As reported by: Mandy Bell via Twitter Luke Voit (back) scratched Saturday
Luke Voit (back) scratched Saturday
As reported by: Mark Zuckerman via Twitter Skye Bolt (knee) scratched Saturday
Skye Bolt (knee) scratched Saturday
As reported by: Jessica Kleinschmidt via Twitter The start of Brewers-Cubs will be delayed Saturday due to rain
Game update: The start of Brewers-Cubs will be delayed Saturday due to rain
As reported by: Tim Stebbins via Twitter Josh Donaldson (illness) scratched Saturday
Josh Donaldson (illness) scratched Saturday
As reported by: Rob Longley via Twitter This Stack Dominates Projections In Every Aspect
Despite the 28 team board on Friday night, with cheap San Francisco bats separating from the rest of the board by a full run (6.09 team run total) at Coors, the Giants are expected to be the most popular stack on the board with a bit more separation than you normally see on a full slate. They also project to smash the slate around 20% of the time or around two and a half times as often as the next “smashiest’ stack tonight (although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). The affordability of San Francisco bats projects then as the top value stack by a more overwhelming margin than we’ve seen on any other slate this year on DraftKings, while the Reds don’t project too far behind the Giants on FanDuel. Of course, the Giants project one of the best stack ratings on the board tonight, but to find out which stacks may be the top pivots, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Top Projected Bats Are Also Your Top Projected Values
Depending on your perspective, finding the Giants at Coors is either the best or worst thing. On one hand, it’s lots of cheap offensive projected goodness where many of the top projected bats are cheap enough to also be the top projected values on either site. On the other hand, ownership is likely to be through the roof (check back in on projected ownership later in the day). LaMonte Wade Jr. (143 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP this season) doubles as the top projected bat and value on the board tonight for $3K or less (though he does carry some pinch-hit risk). Brandon Belt (108 wRC+, .166 ISO) is a top three projected value within $200 of $3K on either site. Brandon Crawford (82 wRC+, .129 ISO) costs the minimum on DraftKings ($2.9K on Fanduel). Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .245 ISO) costs less than $3.5K on FanDuel. All are top 10 projected overall bats tonight as well. J.D. Davis (107 wRC+, .144 ISO) is also a to projected DK value for less than $3K.
The question is if there are any other lineups that project for strong value and the answer appears to be to look towards Pittsburgh. It’s not necessarily a hitter friendly environment, but the pitching is suspect. Bryse Wilson has allowed 10 home runs, but on only 11 barrels (7.4%) over his last eight starts, while his ERA has actually decreased over this span (4.85). For the most part, the inability to avoid contact (15.0 K%) or even hard contact (91.4 mph EV) have done him in. A 5.93 ERA is above estimators ranging from a 4.58 xFIP to a 5.58 xERA, but none of it’s any good. LHBs have a .438 wOBA and .388 xwOBA against him this season. RHBs haven’t had too many problems either (.321 wOBA, .338 xwOBA). Jake Fraley (147 wRC+, .264 ISO), TJ Friedl (52 wRC+) and Jonathan India (103 wRC+, .194 ISO) are all top projected FanDuel values for less than $3K (Friedl costs the minimum).
A 54.1 GB% helps Graham Ashcraft suppress barrels (5.2%). That, along with a 5.9 BB% (though 8.2% over his last six starts) have allowed him to go at least six inning in eight of his 15 starts. The one thing he does not do is miss bats (14.9 K%, 7.6 SwStr%, 92.6 Z-Contact%). A 3.90 xERA is his only estimator below a 3.96 ERA, though only a 4.56 DRA is more than a quarter of a run higher. Ashcraft has a large reverse split (LHBs .228 wOBA, .271 xwOBA – RHBs .385 wOBA, .341 xwOBA), while the Reds are projected to load up the lineup with LHBs. Yet, Tucupita Marcano (62 wRC+) is expected to bat leadoff and Greg Allen (52 wRC+) somewhere in the middle of the lineup, each costing the minimum on DraftKings. Ben Gamel (117 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Bryan Reynolds (139 wRC+, .246 ISO) are also top half of the lineup bats who aren’t too expensive either and are the only above average bats in the projected lineup against Ashcraft.
Clear Top Offense on Tonight's Board, But Another Spot May Play Like Coors
Despite a 14 game Friday night slate, there’s a clear answer on offense because a platoon heavy offense (which means cheap bats) with a 6.09 implied run line at Coors that’s a full run clear of any other team run total tonight. The Padres (5.09) and Dodgers (5.05) are second best in home matchups against the Nationals (Paolo Espino) and Marlins (Jesus Luzardo). The Rockies (4.91) and Cardinals (4.88) are the only other offenses above four and a half implied runs, separating a bit from the rest of the board again.
San Francisco Giants dominate the top of the board with five batters among the top 10 projections tonight, the only offense to feature multiple batters among that group. The remaining five batters are basically your MVP candidates (Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Rafael Devers, Paul Goldschmidt, Shohei Ohtani). Jose Urena has generated nearly half his contact on the ground (49.7%), yet has still allowed 8.7% Barrels/BBE. With a 0.4 K-BB%, he doesn’t have an estimator below five, which means he’s the perfect extension candidate in the eyes of the Rockies. While LHBs have a .384 wOBA against Urena and LHBs are at just .306, Statcast extends batters from either side to an xwOBA between .365 and .370. LaMonte Wade Jr. (143 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top projected bat on the board, followed by Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Brandon Belt (108 wRC+, .166 ISO) with Wilmer Flores (123 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Brandon Crawford (82 wRC+, .129 ISO) in the lower half of the top 10. The one concern players might have in this spot is that the Giants won’t hesitate to pinch-hit to regain the platoon advantage at any point in the game.
Although not featuring many projected bats because there are two great pitchers going in this game, keep an eye on the Weather Edge situation for Philadelphia. Current conditions suggest this already very power friendly park could play like Coors tonight. The first seven batters in the projected Mets’ lineup all exceed a 120 wRC+ vs RHP this season.