DFS Alerts

Top Projected Bats Are Also Your Top Projected Values

Depending on your perspective, finding the Giants at Coors is either the best or worst thing. On one hand, it’s lots of cheap offensive projected goodness where many of the top projected bats are cheap enough to also be the top projected values on either site. On the other hand, ownership is likely to be through the roof (check back in on projected ownership later in the day). LaMonte Wade Jr. (143 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP this season) doubles as the top projected bat and value on the board tonight for $3K or less (though he does carry some pinch-hit risk). Brandon Belt (108 wRC+, .166 ISO) is a top three projected value within $200 of $3K on either site. Brandon Crawford (82 wRC+, .129 ISO) costs the minimum on DraftKings ($2.9K on Fanduel). Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .245 ISO) costs less than $3.5K on FanDuel. All are top 10 projected overall bats tonight as well. J.D. Davis (107 wRC+, .144 ISO) is also a to projected DK value for less than $3K.

The question is if there are any other lineups that project for strong value and the answer appears to be to look towards Pittsburgh. It’s not necessarily a hitter friendly environment, but the pitching is suspect. Bryse Wilson has allowed 10 home runs, but on only 11 barrels (7.4%) over his last eight starts, while his ERA has actually decreased over this span (4.85). For the most part, the inability to avoid contact (15.0 K%) or even hard contact (91.4 mph EV) have done him in. A 5.93 ERA is above estimators ranging from a 4.58 xFIP to a 5.58 xERA, but none of it’s any good. LHBs have a .438 wOBA and .388 xwOBA against him this season. RHBs haven’t had too many problems either (.321 wOBA, .338 xwOBA). Jake Fraley (147 wRC+, .264 ISO), TJ Friedl (52 wRC+) and Jonathan India (103 wRC+, .194 ISO) are all top projected FanDuel values for less than $3K (Friedl costs the minimum).

A 54.1 GB% helps Graham Ashcraft suppress barrels (5.2%). That, along with a 5.9 BB% (though 8.2% over his last six starts) have allowed him to go at least six inning in eight of his 15 starts. The one thing he does not do is miss bats (14.9 K%, 7.6 SwStr%, 92.6 Z-Contact%). A 3.90 xERA is his only estimator below a 3.96 ERA, though only a 4.56 DRA is more than a quarter of a run higher. Ashcraft has a large reverse split (LHBs .228 wOBA, .271 xwOBA – RHBs .385 wOBA, .341 xwOBA), while the Reds are projected to load up the lineup with LHBs. Yet, Tucupita Marcano (62 wRC+) is expected to bat leadoff and Greg Allen (52 wRC+) somewhere in the middle of the lineup, each costing the minimum on DraftKings. Ben Gamel (117 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Bryan Reynolds (139 wRC+, .246 ISO) are also top half of the lineup bats who aren’t too expensive either and are the only above average bats in the projected lineup against Ashcraft.

Clear Top Offense on Tonight's Board, But Another Spot May Play Like Coors

Despite a 14 game Friday night slate, there’s a clear answer on offense because a platoon heavy offense (which means cheap bats) with a 6.09 implied run line at Coors that’s a full run clear of any other team run total tonight. The Padres (5.09) and Dodgers (5.05) are second best in home matchups against the Nationals (Paolo Espino) and Marlins (Jesus Luzardo). The Rockies (4.91) and Cardinals (4.88) are the only other offenses above four and a half implied runs, separating a bit from the rest of the board again.

San Francisco Giants dominate the top of the board with five batters among the top 10 projections tonight, the only offense to feature multiple batters among that group. The remaining five batters are basically your MVP candidates (Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Rafael Devers, Paul Goldschmidt, Shohei Ohtani). Jose Urena has generated nearly half his contact on the ground (49.7%), yet has still allowed 8.7% Barrels/BBE. With a 0.4 K-BB%, he doesn’t have an estimator below five, which means he’s the perfect extension candidate in the eyes of the Rockies. While LHBs have a .384 wOBA against Urena and LHBs are at just .306, Statcast extends batters from either side to an xwOBA between .365 and .370. LaMonte Wade Jr. (143 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top projected bat on the board, followed by Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Brandon Belt (108 wRC+, .166 ISO) with Wilmer Flores (123 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Brandon Crawford (82 wRC+, .129 ISO) in the lower half of the top 10. The one concern players might have in this spot is that the Giants won’t hesitate to pinch-hit to regain the platoon advantage at any point in the game.

Although not featuring many projected bats because there are two great pitchers going in this game, keep an eye on the Weather Edge situation for Philadelphia. Current conditions suggest this already very power friendly park could play like Coors tonight. The first seven batters in the projected Mets’ lineup all exceed a 120 wRC+ vs RHP this season.

High Upside Matchups Boost Projections for Mid-Range Arms

Each of the top two projected pitching values come from the Kansas City/Tampa Bay game. While Shane McClanahan is also the most expensive and top projected pitcher on the board in a protected, negative run environment, Brady Singer may have the superior matchup. He has utilized the highest CStr rate on the board (21%) to turn a 10.1 SwStr% into a 25.5 K% this season. A 45.5 GB% is far lower than it’s ever been at the major league level, but walking just 6.0% of batters has helped him keep the damage from 10% Barrels/BBE in check. Singer has gone at least six innings in seven straight starts (six Quality Starts) with a 3.29 ERA that’s only slightly below most estimators ranging from a 3.16 DRA to a 3.82 xERA. Singer throws either a sinker or a slider over 90% of the time, while the Rays are a bottom seven offense against both pitches this year. They also have a 101 wRC+, but with a 24.6 K% vs RHP. Costing within $200 of $8.5K on either site, Singer may be a pitcher players can consider using on a single pitcher site like FanDuel in this spot.

Despite facing a lot of the tougher offenses in the American League, Kansas City was the only Kutter Crawford struggled most against with Quality Starts against the Yankees, Astros and Blue Jays also among his last five starts. Since making the first of his nine starts in June, Crawford has impressed with a 16.9 K-BB%, while allowing six home runs, but on just eight barrels (5.5%). Estimators are a bit above his 3.30 ERA over this span, but still in league average pitcher territory, similar to where they are on the season, hovering around four. Crawford is in a marginal spot (Orioles 96 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs RHP), but Baltimore now plays pitcher friendly. Costing less than $8K on either site, Crawford is tonight’s third best projected value on either site and first perfectly in your SP2 slot for $6.4K and may even be considered on FanDuel, if the desire is to load up on expensive bats, for $7.7K.

Patrick Sandoval currently projects as the fifth best value on either site for less than $9K, but there are some drawbacks here. Since striking out 19 of 51 Astros and Orioles, Sandoval has just a 6.4 K-BB% over his last five starts. Walks (11.0%) have been an issue all season, but the strikeout rate is down to 23.8%, pushing all non-FIP estimators more than half a run above his 3.42 ERA, despite a .338 BABIP. He’s suppressing barrels well (6.3%), but only five of 18 have left the yard (5.6 HR/FB). The walks have kept Sandoval from completing six innings in seven of his last eight. Sure, he’s facing the Tigers, but they’ve been a competent offense against LHP (98 wRC+, 22.2 K%). Sandoval probably fits better in a DK lineup ($7.2K) than as your sole FanDuel pitcher for $1.5K more.

Kevin Gausman has allowed five earned runs over 4.2 innings twice in over his last four starts (Guardians & Cardinals), but totaled 11 strikeouts with just two walks in those efforts. Gausman has struggled with BABIP issues in the past and has a .314 career mark, but a .372 rate this year is easily the worst of his career. It’s actually pretty amazing he’s registering a 3.16 ERA carrying that around, but that’s where a 23.6 K-BB% helps a lot. Gausman has only completed six innings in consecutive outings twice over his last 15 starts, while there’s some disagreement between his xERA (3.58) and remaining estimators at 3.01 (SIERA) or below. He doesn’t project incredibly well in a tough matchup in New York (115 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 15.1 HR/FB vs RHP), but the Yankee offense has been tame enough recently (63 wRC+, 28.6 K% last seven days) that may play better than projects expect here and costs only $8.2K on DraftKings.

Tyler Anderson has just a 15.6 K% (9.9 K-BB%) over his last 10 starts, which is half his season, though he still continues to pile up Quality Starts (seven of his last eight), due to an elite contact profile (85.1 mph EV, 5.1% Barrels/BBE, 29.6% 95+ mph EV). His .260 BABIP is right in line with the .260 mark his defense allows this season. His 2.81 ERA is below all estimators, though within half a run of his FIP (3.30) and xERA (3.18) with contact neutral estimators much higher (6.5 HR/FB). He faces a Miami offense (71 wRC+, 28.4 K% vs LHP) with a ton of upside for less than $8K on DraftKings. In the less than $7K range, Jordan Lyles (11.6 K-BB%) has allowed just three home runs at home this year and faces an average Boston offense (96 wRC+, 21.6 K% vs RHP) and Matt Manning has also struck out 12 of his last 53 batters and gets the Angels (95 wRC+, 26.8 K% vs RHP) tonight.

Tonight's Top Pitcher Has a 27.1 K-BB% with Half His Contact on the Ground

With 14 games on the Friday night docket, six pitchers reach the $10K price point (just one on DraftKings) with no other pitchers in the $9K+ range on both sites. Shane McClanahan has hit a small rough patch. He allowed just two runs over six innings to Baltimore last time, but had allowed nine runs over his previous 10.2 innings and has struck out just 11 of his last 77 batters. That said, he’s failed to complete six innings just once over his last 16 starts and still owns a 27.1 K-BB% (77.0 Z-Contact%) with an optimal contact profile (50.6 GB%, 87.3 mph EV, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, 30.2% 95+ mph EV). His worst estimator is a 2.64 FIP. But sure, Verlander’s running away with the Cy Young award because Wins and ERA. In the protected negative run environment of the Trop, McClanahan has a surprisingly difficult matchup (Royals 103 wRC+, 19.0 K% vs LHP). The most expensive pitcher on either site is still good enough to register to the top projection of the night and is even a top two projected value on either site. For much more detail on tonight’s highest priced arms, which includes the top McClanahan pivot, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Offense Projected to Smash Against Expensive Pitching

The Texas Rangers do currently project to be the top stack on a nine game board where their five run team total is half a fun ahead of any other offense (projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). It’s not a wide margin in terms of projected ownership, barely into double digits on FanDuel and joined by several other double digit projecting stacks on DraftKings. Again, not by a large margin at all, but the Los Angeles Dodgers smash the slate most often in simulations, but less than a percentage point more often than the Boston Red Sox with the Rangers not much more than a point behind. The projected value column also finds several stacks bunched up at the top, especially on FanDuel, where there’s almost no separation between the Giants, Rangers and Pirates. On DraftKings, the Pirates and A’s project a bit higher than the rest of the board in terms of value. Are the Rangers expected to be too popular tonight? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog for more on tonight’s top rated stacks.

Jeimer Candelario scratched Wednesday

Jeimer Candelario scratched Wednesday

Where to Find the Best Value in the Top Lineup

Atop the board at five implied runs, the Texas Rangers feature a pair of top projected bats in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, but stacking Rangers becomes much easier with several of them populating the top of the projected value board too. In fact Semien (96 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP this year) doubles as a top projected bat and the top projected FanDuel value for just $2.4K. Brad Miller (69 wRC+) is the second best projected FD value with Meibry Viloria (92 wRC+) among the top five. Each cost just the minimum against Adam Oller, against whom RHBs have a .395 wOBA and LHBs are above .400. Miller and Viloria also project as top DraftKings value, also costing the minimum there as well.

FanDuel projections also feature four San Francisco Giants among the top values on the board, all costing less than $3K against Zach Davies (LHBs .302 wOBA, .327 xwOBA). Brandon Belt (114 wRC+, .171 ISO), Joc Pederson (136 wRC+, .252 ISO), Brandon Crawford (86 wRC+, .132 ISO) and LaMonte Wade (142 wRC+, .197 ISO) are all top projected FD values. Crawford is also the top DraftKings value for $2K.

Despite Cole Ragans and Cal Quantrill projecting as top value pitchers tonight, DraftKings projections also believe a pair of bats against each to be top values as well. Jonah Bride (73 wRC+) and Chad Pinder (87 wRC+) each cost the minimum. RHBs have a .379 wOBA, .368 xwOBA against Ragans over just two starts. Victor Reyes (89 wRC+) and Harold Castro (102 wRC+) also cost the minimum in the upper half of the Detroit lineup against Qauntrill (LHBs .315 wOBA, .327 xwOBA).

The Surprising Top Offense That Separates Atop the Board

On a nine game board that features a single five run team total doesn’t find one of the standard top offenses leading the pack tonight, but the Rangers stand a half run above everyone else (5.02), despite the negative expected run environment with the roof closed in Texas. Adam Oller has been just that bad. The Yankees, Dodgers, Giants and Gaurdians are all in a virtual tie right around the 4.5 run mark. With the separation, Corey Seager (124 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP this season) and Marcus Semien (96 wRC+, .167 ISO) project as top 10 bats tonight. LHBs have a .395 wOBA and .338 xwOBA against Oller, while RHBs are above .400. He is just short of 50 innings with a 1.7 K-BB%. On top of that, opponents have barreled 10.7% of his contact with a 90.3 mph EV. With a 46.5 Z-O-Swing%, he doesn’t appear to be fooling anyone. Oller’s best estimator is a 5.88 SIERA.

Aaron Judge (202 wRC+, .371 ISO) is the top projected bat on a board that doesn’t include any other Yankees among the top 10 against Corey Kluber (RHBs .298 wOBA, .304 xwOBA). The Dodgers are the only other offense to features multiple top 10 projected bats, despite facing one of the most expensive pitchers on the board. Eric Lauer’s strikeout rate has risen and fallen with his velocity, both on a roller coaster ride all season long. Most recently, both have been down. Lauer has just a 16.4 K% and 4.9 K-BB% on the season, dropping his season rates to a still very respectable 23.5% and 15.0%. He does have four Quality Starts over his last seven, but that’s mostly BABIP (.236) and LOB (85.9%) related. On the season, a 3.64 ERA is below estimators all above four, as he’s stranded 79.9% of runners with more than 10% of his runs being unearned. He doesn’t have much of a split with batters from either side of the plate between a .299 and .319 wOBA and xwOBA. Freddie Freeman (134 wRC+, .173 ISO vs LHP this season) and Mookie Betts (173 wRC+, .288 ISO) are top projected Dodger bats.

A pair of Houston bats are among the top 10 FanDuel projections against Michael Kopech. Don’t get wrapped up in the six non-hit innings he threw last time out, stirking out 11 of 20 batters because it was the Tigers and he still walked three. It was just the second time he’d completed six innings in eight starts and he still has just a 10.5 K-BB%. His 3.18 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 3.83 xERA to a 4.69 xFIP (.225 BABIP, 79.8 LOB%). Yordan Alvarez (200 wRC+, .350 ISO) and Kyle Tucker (151 wRC+, .236 ISO) are the top projected Astros. LHBs are within a point of a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Kopech this season.

Projected Pitcher Value is All in the Matchups

The fade Oakland and Detroit approach, meaning that you roster whoever’s pitching against those teams, has been a tried and true approach this year, even if it didn’t work out last night. However, it also explains why Cole Ragans and Cal Quantrill are the top projected values on the board tonight. Whether you want to trust them on a single pitcher site over Scherzer or Rodon…that’s a personal question for each player to answer themselves, but you’ll get all the information necessary to make those decisions here. Ragans has struck out just four of 44 batters faced with seven walks and three barrels (9.1%). The 24 year-old with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) has produced a 20.2 K-BB% over 43.1 innings at AAA this season. The A’s have an 87 wRC+ and 22.5 K% vs LHP this season. Not good, but not the worst offense in the league. However, Ragans projects as the top value on either site, though seems to fit better in a SP2 spot on DraftKings for $900 less.

Quantrill tied a season high by striking out seven of 22 Blue Jays with only a single hit allowed and no walks last time out. Considering his season 16.0 K%, that probably shouldn’t be the expectation going forward. What he brings to the table is a 6.5 BB% and the ability to keep his pitch counts low and work deep into games should the batted balls find enough gloves. He does have Quality Starts in 12 of his last 20, but his 3.67 ERA is also more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 4.38 FIP to a 4.75 DRA. The Tigers are absolutely atrocious against RHP (68 wRC+, 25.2 K%, 7.2 HR/FB), which actually makes one consider Quantrill on a single pitcher site. However, he projects as the third best FanDuel value for $8.3K and the second best DraftKings one for exactly $7K.

In fact, Qauntrill is the most expensive of the top six projected values on FanDuel before we get to the big boys, but Daniel Norris and Rich Hill are certainly not single site pitchers. Domingo German probably isn’t either. He completed six innings for the first time in five starts last time out, but has just a 16.5 K% with a 90.7 mph EV (45.5% 95+ mph EV). Only 35.1% of his contact has been on the ground. This is not ideal at Yankee Stadium. On a positive note, his 10.2 SwStr% does suggest a few more strikeouts should be forthcoming, but right now, his 4.18 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators (81.6 LOB%). Yankee Stadium is a more neutral run environment than some people realize and the Rays do offer some upside against RHP (100 wRC+, 24.6 K%). German is $7K or less and a top three projected value on either site.

German Marquez projects as the sixth best value on either site. He has pitched at least six innings, allowing two runs or less in five of his last six starts, though his strikeout rate is down (17.6%) and his average exit velocity is up (91.5 mph) over this span. Somewhere along the way, he forgot how to miss bats. His 17.8 HR/FB is nearly las high as his 18.8 K% this season. Stranding just two-thirds of runners, his 5.08 ERA is above estimators ranging from a 3.93 xFIP to a 4.78 xERA, but that’s still below average work. He does get a massive park upgrade in St Louis, which could help from a run prevention standpoint, but Cardinal bats won’t offer much help (107 wRC+, 20.8 K% vs RHP).

On the other end of this matchup, the Rockies have been tough on LHP too (102 wRC+, 18.8 K%), but under similarly pitcher friendly conditions, Jordan Montgomery tied a season high, striking out eight of 24 Brewers last time out. Perhaps the Cardinals will have better success in maximizing his 13.7 SwStr% than the Yankees did. In fact, Montgomery hasn’t allowed a run over 11 innings as a Cardinal. His season strikeout rate is up to 20.8% with just a 5.1 BB% and 6.2% Barrels/BBE. While his 3.37 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 3.58 xFIP to a 4.31 DRA. However, he moves to a great defense (-15 Runs Prevented) and better park with the trade and those estimators should decrease if the strikeout rate rises. He may cost too much on FanDuel ($8.7K), but fits in well as a DK SP2 for just $6.9K.

Twenty Strikeouts in Two Matchups Against Tonight's Opponent

Despite the moderately sized nine game slate, the Wednesday night board still features four $10K pitches on both sites, along with one more above $9K on each. Max Scherzer has eight straight Quality starts since returning from the IL (1.36 ERA/1.89 FIP/3.16 xFIP), four of them with seven innings and none with more than two earned runs. He’s struck out 31.3% of batters faced with just a 4.2 BB% and also 20 of 49 Braves faced this season. Only eight of his 23 Barrels (9.2%) have left the yard, which explains the career low 6.3 HR/FB, but a 3.22 xFIP is still his only estimator exceeding three. The Braves represent a dangerous, but high upside matchup (107 wRC+, 16.1 HR/FB, 25.0 K% vs RHP). Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher, above $11K on either site, and the top projected one, while projecting for the seventh most value on either site. Early ownership projections also suggest he could be in more than half of lineups tonight. Reasons for considering an underweight position might be a substantial park downgrade and Atlanta carrying the most weather risk on the slate. For more on tonight’s top pitchers, including the top Scherzer alternative, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Stacking Projections See This Offense Being More Dominant Than Sportsbooks

The most obvious thing about Tuesday night’s 13 game slate is that it seems fairly well distributed and early stacking ownership projections (which are fluid and subject to change) agree without any offense currently projecting in double digits on either site. In fact, on FanDuel, no stack currently projects for even seven percent ownership. However, it seems that stacking projections slightly disagree with the sportsbooks because while the Blue Jays do have the highest team run line tonight (5.07) they don’t separate from the rest of the board nearly as much as they do in early simulations which have Toronto smashing the slate around 15% of the time, almost twice as often as any other offense on either site. We can’t find a clear answer in the Value% column either though, Washington (FanDuel) and Detroit (DraftKings) stacks have small early projection leads. It’s probably no secret that the Blue Jays do rate as a top stack tonight, but which stack currently projects a better rating on one site? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

When Cheap Bats Meet Cheap Pitching: Value on Both Sides

While hitter projections aren’t dominated by any single offense tonight, they do suggest quite a bit of value in the Washington lineup. Justin Steele has struck out 19 of his last 45 batters (Marlins & Nationals) and has struck out at least six in six of his last eight starts. That he’s been able to do this while actually increasing his ground ball rate (51.3%) over this span is quite the accomplishment, though it’s hard to find anything he’s doing differently. He appears to be throwing a few more sliders (30.2%, -1.5 RV/100, 32.8 Whiff%, .165 wOBA, .203 xwOBA), but that’s it. On the season, Steele is up to a 23.7 K% with a 9.6 BB% (one walk or less in four of his last five starts) with 50.7% of his contact on the ground, while allowing just 3.6% Barrels/BBE (86.8 mph EV, 32.3% 95+ mph EV). His 3.63 ERA is within one third of a run of all estimators and he’s suddenly become quite interesting. However, RHBs have been about average against him this year (.308 wOBA, .313 xwOBA) and the entire Washington projected lineup costs $3K or less on FanDuel. Projections believe Victor Robles (119 wRC+ vs LHP), if in the leadoff spot, Lane Thomas (92 wRC+, .172 ISO) and Joey Meneses (.347 wRC+, .600 ISO is an extremely small sample) contain the most value.

We don’t find another offense with multiple top 10 projected values tonight, though Alejandro Kirk (141 wRC+, .158 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and value for less than $3K against Dean Kremer (RHBs .354 wOBA .361 xwOBA).

The Detroit Tigers are the only offense with more than a single top 10 projected value bat on DraftKings tonight. Zach Plesac has had some very recent success against the Tigers and is one of the top projected pitching values on the board tonight for less than $8K, but everybody has a price and Detroit hitters appear to have hit theirs on DraftKings, particularly Victor Reyes (90 wRC+ vs RHP this year) and Harold Castro (97 wRC+) at minimum cost ($2K). It is important to note that no batter in the projected lineup for the Tigers reaches a 100 wRC+ or .160 ISO vs RHP this year.

A Reverse Platoon Split Could Mean Trouble Against This Powerful Offense

On a 13 game Tuesday night slate that features a lot of expensive arms facing some of the top offenses in the league and few very positive run environments on the board, only the Toronto Blue Jays exceed a five run team total and barely so (5.07). Six more offense are at four and a half implied runs or higher. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (140 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board with Alejando Kirk (141 wRC+, .158 ISO) just outside the top five. The Toronto Blue Jays are the only offense tonight to feature multiple top 10 projected bats. The Orioles have limited Dean Kremer to less than 90 pitches in each of his last five starts, a conservation effort they’ve begun practicing with all of their young pitchers late in the year. Over his last seven starts, he’s shut out the Angels and Pirates over five and 6.1 innings, but at least three runs in fewer than six innings in each of the other five. With just an 18.5 K%, his only asset has been a 5.7 BB%, though with just six of 17 barrels (8.6%) leaving the yard, all non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.69 ERA. Like Bradish yesterday, Kremer has also exhibited a reverse platoon split that will likely hurt him here. RHBs have a .354 wOBA and .361 xwOBA against him this season. The only drawback is if Kremer only lasts two trips through the lineup, the Baltimore pen has been one of the best in the league (3.09 xFIP, 2.87 SIERA last 30 days).

While Willson Contreras (162 wRC+, .356 ISO vs LHP this year) is the only top of the board projecting Cub, you really have to consider attacking Patrick Corbin with an entirely right-handed projected lineup (.397 wOBA, .391 xwOBA vs Corbin this year). He has failed to strike out a single batter in two of his last three starts (Dodgers & Phillies) and has allowed 31 runs over his last 21.2 innings with seven home runs on 10 barrels (10.9%). Season estimators range from a 4.14 xFIP to a 6.17 xERA. While all are quite a bit lower than his 7.02 ERA (.384 BABIP, 61.7 LOB%, 17.1 HR/FB), none of it is any good. Patrick Wisdom (143 wRC+, .267 ISO), Seiya Suzuki (102 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Ian Happ (144 wRC+, .151 ISO) have shown some life against southpaws as well.

Garrett Hill has a 1.3 K-BB% and 10.5% Barrels/BBE through seven starts. His 4.66 ERA is more than a run below all estimators. Jose Ramirez (159 wRC+, .279 ISO) is the only top projecting Cleveland bat, but Hill has actually been much worse against RHBs (.369 wOBA, .412 xwOBA) than LHBs (.287 wOBA, .334 xwOBA). Oscar Gonzalez (130 wRC+, .167 ISO) has been the top performing Cleveland RHB against RHP.

Paul Goldschmidt (269 wRC+, .383 ISO vs LHP this season) is the only top 10 projecting Cardinal tonight. It’s a firmly negative run environment, but the Cardinals have smashed LHP (125 wRC+, 19.3 K%) and Kyle Freeland has just a 16.4 K%, while allowing 9.1% Barrels/BBE. Forget Coors, that won’t play well in any park. Despite just 13 of 37 barrels leaving the yard, his 4.84 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. RHBs have a .328 wOBA and .325 xwOBA against him. Tyler O’Neill (124 wRC+, .151 ISO) sneaks inside the top 10 on DraftKings, though Nolan Arenado (179 wRC+, .429 ISO), Albert Pujols (183 wRC+, .312 ISO) and Dylan Carlson (153 wRC+ .214 ISO) have smashed LHP too.

Low Priced Pitcher Projecting for Great Value in Top Matchup

While a large Tuesday night slate is headlined by several top arms, most of them appear to be in marginal to difficult spots with the best matchups reserved for marginal pitchers. What’s a daily fantasy player to do? You’re certainly not trusting your single pitcher FanDuel slot to Patrick Corbin and probably not J.P. Sears (17.6 K%) either, though both project very strongly from a point per dollar perspective. Zach Plesac may be a different story. He has a 23.7 K% over his last five starts, but three of those starts have been against Tampa Bay and Detroit (twice), while he just snapped a stretch of five straight starts without completing six innings. While his 18.2 K% (11.3 K-BB%) and 10.4% Barrels/BBE produce estimators ranging from a 4.27 FIP to a 5.21 xERA, he is facing the Tigers (66 wRC+, 25.3 K%, 7.2 HR/FB vs RHP) again here. While Plesac hasn’t had much success with his four-seamer (42.7%, 0.5 RV/100, 15.3 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA above .400), the Tigers are the worst fastball hitting team in the majors (-0.75 wFB/C). With the Cleveland bullpen being heavily worked in Monday’s double-header as well, Plesac could be pushed a bit harder than usual.

Other than Plesac, it’s pretty hard to get away from the top of the board on FanDuel, but there are a few more SP2 options on DraftKings, though Plesac can also serve in that spot for just $7.2K. J.P. Sears at $6.0K is one option. He has failed to come close to reproducing his 33.7 AAA K% (43 IP) though 27.1 major league innings (17.6 K%). That’s not to say he’s pitched poorly though. Sears has walked just five of 102 batters with more popups (eight) than barrels (five) allowed. Estimators widely range from a 2.94 FIP/3.10 xERA to a 4.74 DRA in his small sample of work. Texas is a negative run environment with the roof closed, as it generally is during the summer, and while the Rangers are a dangerous offense against LHP (114 wRC+, 17.1 HR/FB), they also have a 23.4 K% against southpaws.

Justin Steele has struck out 19 of his last 45 batters (Marlins & Nationals) and has struck out at least six in six of his last eight starts. That he’s been able to do this while actually increasing his ground ball rate (51.3%) over this span is quite the accomplishment, though it’s hard to find anything he’s doing differently. He appears to be throwing a few more sliders (30.2%, -1.5 RV/100, 32.8 Whiff%, .165 wOBA, .203 xwOBA), but that’s it. On the season, Steele is up to a 23.7 K% with a 9.6 BB% (one walk or less in four of his last five starts) and 50.7% of his contact on the ground, while allowing just 3.6% Barrels/BBE (86.8 mph EV, 32.3% 95+ mph EV). His 3.63 ERA is within one third of a run of all estimators and he’s suddenly become quite interesting. The Nationals don’t like sliders, by the way (-0.81 wSL/C is third worst in baseball). The reason we like him much more as an SP2 on DraftKings than on FanDuel is because he is $3.5K less on DraftKings.

While Sonny Gray has struck out 22 of his last 84 batters to push his season strikeout rate up to 22.9%, he’s exceeded five innings in only two of his last 10 starts. He’s still managing contact well (5.9% Barrels/BBE) with popups (16.7 IFFB%) replacing the normally high ground ball rate (43.4%), though his 3.33 ERA is below all estimators, ranging from a 3.55 FIP to a 3.88 SIERA. The Royals are more a good run prevention spot than a really high upside one (92 wRC+, 21.9 K%, 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP). Gray would probably be fine for less than $9K if you really needed to save the salary with a decent floor, but just understand that the upside is likely limited.

Tonight's Most Expensive Pitcher Has Generated More Popups Than Barrels

A 13 game Tuesday night slate includes six $10K pitchers on FanDuel (three on DraftKings) with one more reaching $9K on both sites. The loaded pitching board starts with Justin Verlander most expensively on either site. He has produced eight Quality Starts in a row and has completed seven innings in 10 of his 21 starts. The workload is the real value here, as the strikeout rate (25.7%) isn’t elite, but he’s still able to rack up strong game totals by not walking anyone (4.6 BB%) and pitching deep into games. A 19.9 IFFB% and 34.7% 95+ mph EV that have produced more popups (30) than barrels (26) have also helped. All estimators are more than a run above his 1.85 ERA (.233 BABIP, 81.6 LOB%, eight unearned runs), but a 2.90 xERA to a 3.41 xFIP isn’t a bad range either. Verlander is throwing his four-seamer 50.5% of the time (-1.7 RV/100, .266 wOBA). The White Sox are a bottom third of the league offense against fastballs (-0.27 wFB/C), though they don’t strike out a ton vs RHP (20.2% with a 96 wRC+). Verlander projects in an essential tie as the second best arm on the board (though with a different pitcher on each site), though he’ll have to face some hitter friendly conditions (weather and umpire). The high cost places his point per dollar projection merely among the middle of the pack tonight. For much more on all of tonight’s top of the board pitchers, including the highly volatile top projecting arm tonight, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.